RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO565L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO565L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Nederland CO, (EK ab 611 WIDTH_LATE PCPU - 670 2 United States of America blue spruce, Colorado spruce 2500 3959-1053 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 670631 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 0.487 0.319 3.409 18.367 0.448 0.243 2 670612 1894 1982 89 0.274 0.103 0.305 2.579 0.380 0.299 3 670631 1895 1982 88 0.458 0.313 1.923 7.528 0.385 0.523 4 670632 1908 1982 75 0.558 0.284 1.761 6.873 0.385 0.362 5 670641 1921 1982 62 0.459 0.139 0.248 2.686 0.329 0.073 6 670642 1921 1982 62 0.480 0.205 1.866 7.265 0.352 0.455 7 670651 1911 1982 72 0.263 0.093 0.489 3.341 0.318 0.401 8 670652 1918 1982 65 0.268 0.089 3.194 16.899 0.235 0.250 9 670661 1930 1982 53 0.367 0.099 1.334 5.389 0.259 0.099 10 670662 1927 1982 56 0.339 0.164 2.071 9.381 0.300 0.349 11 670671 1924 1982 59 0.250 0.065 1.410 5.786 0.288 -0.115 12 670672 1930 1982 53 0.233 0.090 2.096 8.533 0.268 0.356 13 670681 1919 1982 64 0.407 0.142 2.026 9.122 0.283 0.385 14 670682 1915 1982 68 0.461 0.142 1.579 7.509 0.275 0.256 15 670691 1927 1982 56 0.386 0.112 0.661 5.959 0.263 0.304 16 670692 1905 1982 78 0.330 0.100 -0.075 2.625 0.234 0.550 17 670701 1880 1982 103 0.371 0.255 4.841 35.475 0.313 0.440 18 670702 1901 1982 82 0.446 0.332 3.098 17.814 0.357 0.510 19 670711 1889 1982 94 0.365 0.121 0.068 2.488 0.264 0.519 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 0.345 0.115 0.103 2.716 0.274 0.498 21 670731 1891 1982 92 0.310 0.231 4.559 29.726 0.411 0.303 22 670732 1933 1982 50 0.374 0.302 4.279 23.308 0.395 0.248 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1880 TO 1982 103 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 0.374 0.173 1.875 10.517 0.319 0.332 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.088 0.089 1.493 9.240 0.061 0.164 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 0.369 0.141 1.814 7.387 0.306 0.352 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 27 0.147 0.155 2.609 13.558 0.111 0.204 MINIMUM VALUE 50 0.233 0.065 -0.075 2.488 0.234 -0.115 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 0.310 0.100 0.489 3.341 0.268 0.250 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 86 0.458 0.255 3.098 16.899 0.380 0.455 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 0.558 0.332 4.841 35.475 0.448 0.550 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.287 0.181 0.012 0.114 3.099 -0.260 0.851 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.260 SERIES 670671 AND 670732 50 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.851 SERIES 670701 AND 670702 82 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.304 SDEV 0.220 SERR 0.027 EPS 0.897 NSS 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.364 0.098 -0.058 2.755 0.223 0.484 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.542 0.490 -0.044 41 62 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.57 1.49 1.00 1.12 2.60 28.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 70. 29. 50. 59. 88. 103. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.479 0.478 0.374 0.293 0.184 0.185 0.259 0.230 0.231 0.197 PACF 0.479 0.322 0.094 -0.003 -0.081 0.040 0.203 0.076 0.009 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.197 0.238 0.273 0.292 0.303 0.307 0.312 0.320 0.326 0.333 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.326 0.329 0.325 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670611 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00223535 0.56839591 2 670612 1 0.21655634 0.14630668 0.00000000 0.25905055 3 670631 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00909801 0.87262791 4 670632 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00581024 0.77878916 5 670641 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00229559 0.53102064 6 670642 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00071189 0.45709148 7 670651 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036272 0.27657276 8 670652 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00218313 0.34019712 9 670661 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082809 0.34443396 10 670662 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00395181 0.45137662 11 670671 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000877 0.25043249 12 670672 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00323012 0.31985486 13 670681 1 0.39447540 0.25079030 0.00000000 0.38509497 14 670682 1 0.43416083 0.00937223 0.00000000 0.14133489 15 670691 1 0.05718109 0.13359027 0.00000000 0.37893119 16 670692 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00290292 0.44440892 17 670701 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00251713 0.50157052 18 670702 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00792786 0.77461606 19 670711 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00248687 0.48301992 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670712 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00269667 0.47277281 21 670731 1 0.96688640 0.35242906 0.00000000 0.28545240 22 670732 1 0.45962238 0.13427235 0.00000000 0.30991036 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 0.999 0.632 3.229 16.891 0.441 0.222 2 670612 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.363 0.511 3.300 0.374 0.232 3 670631 1895 1982 88 1.083 0.585 2.318 9.234 0.377 0.450 4 670632 1908 1982 75 1.003 0.433 1.276 5.596 0.381 0.243 5 670641 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.290 0.333 3.016 0.324 0.006 6 670642 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.428 1.905 7.490 0.347 0.446 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.350 0.427 3.226 0.313 0.393 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.001 0.270 2.112 9.557 0.233 0.115 9 670661 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.267 1.335 5.203 0.254 0.084 10 670662 1927 1982 56 0.995 0.448 2.373 9.006 0.293 0.278 11 670671 1924 1982 59 1.000 0.260 1.412 5.790 0.283 -0.113 12 670672 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.293 1.446 5.247 0.264 0.123 13 670681 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.303 0.926 3.823 0.280 0.258 14 670682 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.280 1.799 9.578 0.271 0.148 15 670691 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.293 0.833 6.367 0.258 0.299 16 670692 1905 1982 78 0.998 0.243 0.288 2.990 0.232 0.269 17 670701 1880 1982 103 0.991 0.604 4.277 29.439 0.310 0.401 18 670702 1901 1982 82 0.985 0.512 2.194 9.084 0.351 0.372 19 670711 1889 1982 94 0.998 0.285 0.565 4.032 0.261 0.290 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.265 -0.106 2.504 0.271 0.189 21 670731 1891 1982 92 1.000 0.725 6.054 47.097 0.405 0.199 22 670732 1933 1982 50 0.999 0.734 3.907 20.556 0.388 0.252 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 1.002 0.403 1.792 9.956 0.314 0.234 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.018 0.160 1.499 10.548 0.060 0.139 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.327 1.429 6.079 0.301 0.248 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.001 0.232 1.753 5.734 0.110 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 50 0.985 0.243 -0.106 2.504 0.232 -0.113 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 0.999 0.280 0.565 3.823 0.264 0.148 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.512 2.318 9.557 0.374 0.299 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.083 0.734 6.054 47.097 0.441 0.450 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670611 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670612 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670631 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670632 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670641 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670642 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670651 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670652 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670661 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670662 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670671 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670672 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670681 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670682 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670691 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670692 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670701 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670702 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670711 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670712 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670731 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 670732 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 0.993 0.557 2.655 13.241 0.439 0.175 2 670612 1894 1982 89 0.997 0.338 0.292 2.978 0.374 0.141 3 670631 1895 1982 88 0.991 0.363 1.858 9.028 0.377 0.052 4 670632 1908 1982 75 0.991 0.386 1.258 5.382 0.379 0.091 5 670641 1921 1982 62 0.999 0.284 0.366 3.288 0.324 -0.042 6 670642 1921 1982 62 0.997 0.342 1.110 5.281 0.347 0.164 7 670651 1911 1982 72 0.991 0.306 0.369 3.712 0.312 0.236 8 670652 1918 1982 65 0.997 0.234 1.510 5.609 0.231 -0.036 9 670661 1930 1982 53 0.999 0.247 1.040 4.234 0.254 -0.020 10 670662 1927 1982 56 0.994 0.371 2.189 8.511 0.291 0.155 11 670671 1924 1982 59 0.999 0.235 0.913 4.770 0.283 -0.234 12 670672 1930 1982 53 0.998 0.285 1.434 5.203 0.263 0.091 13 670681 1919 1982 64 0.997 0.290 1.070 4.451 0.279 0.179 14 670682 1915 1982 68 0.996 0.251 1.833 9.889 0.271 -0.040 15 670691 1927 1982 56 0.997 0.273 0.526 5.101 0.257 0.228 16 670692 1905 1982 78 0.998 0.226 0.124 2.911 0.232 0.169 17 670701 1880 1982 103 0.988 0.503 4.127 27.383 0.310 0.291 18 670702 1901 1982 82 0.994 0.483 2.399 11.589 0.351 0.284 19 670711 1889 1982 94 0.999 0.270 0.407 4.335 0.261 0.232 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 0.999 0.261 -0.055 2.546 0.271 0.160 21 670731 1891 1982 92 0.990 0.641 5.461 41.400 0.404 0.167 22 670732 1933 1982 50 0.960 0.639 5.205 30.371 0.380 0.082 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 0.994 0.354 1.640 9.601 0.313 0.115 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.008 0.129 1.546 10.209 0.060 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 0.997 0.298 1.184 5.242 0.300 0.158 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.007 0.125 1.783 5.655 0.111 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 50 0.960 0.226 -0.055 2.546 0.231 -0.234 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 0.991 0.261 0.407 4.234 0.263 0.052 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 0.998 0.386 2.189 9.889 0.374 0.179 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 0.999 0.641 5.461 41.400 0.439 0.291 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.271 0.164 0.011 0.110 2.967 -0.189 0.741 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.189 SERIES 670671 AND 670732 50 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.741 SERIES 670701 AND 670702 82 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.322 SDEV 0.188 SERR 0.023 EPS 0.905 NSS 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.962 0.206 0.333 3.395 0.227 0.077 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.358 0.245 -0.009 32 71 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.43 1.72 1.00 1.07 2.79 13.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.076 0.090 0.005 -0.181 -0.188 -0.122 0.017 -0.085 0.061 -0.068 PACF 0.076 0.085 -0.008 -0.191 -0.171 -0.074 0.069 -0.104 0.000 -0.134 95% C.L. 0.197 0.198 0.200 0.200 0.206 0.213 0.215 0.215 0.217 0.217 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.073 0.041 0.182 -0.057 -0.145 -0.116 -0.047 -0.280 -0.025 -0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.073 2 0.071 0.036 3 0.064 0.023 0.177 4 0.080 0.025 0.183 -0.086 5 0.066 0.053 0.187 -0.074 -0.154 6 0.046 0.044 0.211 -0.067 -0.145 -0.132 7 0.047 0.044 0.212 -0.068 -0.145 -0.132 0.005 8 0.048 0.014 0.178 -0.084 -0.096 -0.121 0.016 -0.234 9 0.057 0.013 0.182 -0.080 -0.093 -0.128 0.016 -0.236 0.035 10 0.058 0.002 0.183 -0.086 -0.097 -0.131 0.024 -0.235 0.038 -0.045 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 726.19 727.63 729.50 728.21 729.44 728.98 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 729.19 731.18 727.39 729.26 731.05 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670611 0 0.031 2 670612 0 0.020 3 670631 0 0.003 4 670632 0 0.008 5 670641 0 0.002 6 670642 0 0.029 7 670651 0 0.057 8 670652 0 0.002 9 670661 0 0.000 10 670662 0 0.024 11 670671 0 0.055 12 670672 0 0.008 13 670681 0 0.033 14 670682 0 0.002 15 670691 0 0.055 16 670692 0 0.029 17 670701 0 0.087 18 670702 0 0.081 19 670711 0 0.054 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670712 0 0.026 21 670731 0 0.028 22 670732 0 0.007 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.029 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.026 MEDIAN 0 0.027 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.047 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.007 UPPER HINGE 0 0.054 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.087 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.557 2.655 13.241 0.436 0.175 2 670612 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.338 0.292 2.978 0.373 0.141 3 670631 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.363 1.858 9.028 0.373 0.052 4 670632 1908 1982 75 1.000 0.386 1.258 5.382 0.375 0.091 5 670641 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.284 0.366 3.288 0.324 -0.042 6 670642 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.342 1.110 5.281 0.346 0.164 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.306 0.369 3.712 0.309 0.236 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.000 0.234 1.510 5.609 0.231 -0.036 9 670661 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.247 1.040 4.234 0.254 -0.020 10 670662 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.371 2.189 8.511 0.289 0.155 11 670671 1924 1982 59 1.000 0.235 0.913 4.770 0.283 -0.234 12 670672 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.285 1.434 5.203 0.263 0.091 13 670681 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.290 1.070 4.451 0.278 0.179 14 670682 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.251 1.833 9.889 0.270 -0.040 15 670691 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.273 0.526 5.101 0.256 0.228 16 670692 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.226 0.124 2.911 0.231 0.169 17 670701 1880 1982 103 1.000 0.503 4.127 27.383 0.306 0.291 18 670702 1901 1982 82 1.000 0.483 2.399 11.589 0.349 0.284 19 670711 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.270 0.407 4.335 0.261 0.232 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.261 -0.055 2.546 0.271 0.160 21 670731 1891 1982 92 1.000 0.641 5.461 41.400 0.399 0.167 22 670732 1933 1982 50 1.000 0.639 5.205 30.371 0.364 0.082 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 1.000 0.354 1.640 9.601 0.311 0.115 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.129 1.546 10.209 0.058 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.298 1.184 5.242 0.298 0.158 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.125 1.783 5.655 0.101 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 50 1.000 0.226 -0.055 2.546 0.231 -0.234 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.261 0.407 4.234 0.263 0.052 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.386 2.189 9.889 0.364 0.179 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.000 0.641 5.461 41.400 0.436 0.291 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.271 0.164 0.011 0.110 2.967 -0.189 0.741 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.189 SERIES 670671 AND 670732 50 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.741 SERIES 670701 AND 670702 82 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.322 SDEV 0.188 SERR 0.023 EPS 0.905 NSS 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.968 0.205 0.338 3.397 0.225 0.075 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.356 0.242 -0.009 31 72 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.60 1.00 1.12 2.72 21.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.075 0.088 0.005 -0.181 -0.189 -0.120 0.018 -0.085 0.060 -0.068 PACF 0.075 0.083 -0.007 -0.190 -0.172 -0.073 0.068 -0.105 -0.002 -0.133 95% C.L. 0.197 0.198 0.200 0.200 0.206 0.213 0.215 0.215 0.217 0.217 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.968 0.205 0.338 3.397 0.225 0.075 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.075 0.088 0.005 -0.181 -0.189 -0.120 0.018 -0.085 0.060 -0.068 PACF 0.075 0.083 -0.007 -0.190 -0.172 -0.073 0.068 -0.105 -0.002 -0.133 95% C.L. 0.197 0.198 0.200 0.200 0.206 0.213 0.215 0.215 0.217 0.217 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.21 MINUTES