RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO565N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO565N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Nederland CO, (EK ab 611 DENSITY_MINIMUM PCPU - 670 2 United States of America blue spruce, Colorado spruce 2500 3959-1053 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 670631 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 670641 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 670671 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1931 1935 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 670681 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 670701 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1914 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 670711 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1965 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 0.263 0.026 1.294 5.442 0.065 0.551 2 670612 1894 1982 89 0.258 0.026 0.336 2.516 0.058 0.675 3 670631 1895 1982 88 0.248 0.028 1.506 5.015 0.064 0.626 4 670632 1908 1982 75 0.247 0.016 0.510 2.978 0.057 0.262 5 670641 1921 1982 62 0.295 0.034 1.676 5.979 0.062 0.625 6 670642 1921 1982 62 0.291 0.028 0.792 4.038 0.065 0.581 7 670651 1911 1982 72 0.312 0.030 1.947 7.947 0.057 0.718 8 670652 1918 1982 65 0.300 0.017 0.103 3.402 0.052 0.268 9 670661 1930 1982 53 0.265 0.015 -0.265 2.940 0.049 0.419 10 670662 1927 1982 56 0.270 0.016 0.094 2.089 0.051 0.427 11 670671 1924 1982 59 0.257 0.020 0.546 3.175 0.059 0.481 12 670672 1930 1982 53 0.265 0.018 0.002 4.744 0.054 0.406 13 670681 1919 1982 64 0.333 0.025 0.032 2.628 0.049 0.635 14 670682 1915 1982 68 0.329 0.022 0.377 3.234 0.064 0.319 15 670691 1927 1982 56 0.295 0.016 -0.047 4.302 0.050 0.227 16 670692 1905 1982 78 0.293 0.028 0.653 2.785 0.046 0.764 17 670701 1880 1982 103 0.270 0.019 0.668 4.144 0.064 0.265 18 670702 1901 1982 82 0.264 0.030 1.900 7.891 0.087 0.436 19 670711 1889 1982 94 0.286 0.020 1.241 5.048 0.053 0.456 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 0.287 0.024 0.745 3.930 0.056 0.556 21 670731 1891 1982 92 0.318 0.047 0.916 2.756 0.078 0.689 22 670732 1933 1982 50 0.317 0.026 1.105 4.438 0.052 0.600 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1880 TO 1982 103 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 71 0.285 0.024 0.733 4.155 0.059 0.499 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.026 0.008 0.650 1.600 0.010 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 0.286 0.024 0.660 3.984 0.057 0.516 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.036 0.009 1.138 2.074 0.012 0.220 MINIMUM VALUE 50 0.247 0.015 -0.265 2.089 0.046 0.227 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 56 0.264 0.018 0.103 2.940 0.052 0.406 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 86 0.300 0.028 1.241 5.015 0.064 0.626 MAXIMUM VALUE 98 0.333 0.047 1.947 7.947 0.087 0.764 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.212 0.214 0.014 0.015 2.971 -0.360 0.832 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.360 SERIES 670641 AND 670692 62 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.832 SERIES 670641 AND 670642 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.164 SDEV 0.217 SERR 0.027 EPS 0.797 NSS 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.284 0.016 0.547 3.604 0.045 0.434 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.317 0.257 -0.041 21 82 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.52 1.00 1.05 1.58 36.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 70. 29. 50. 59. 88. 103. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.430 0.374 0.171 0.233 0.220 0.085 -0.016 -0.059 0.055 0.132 PACF 0.430 0.232 -0.067 0.140 0.111 -0.141 -0.117 -0.021 0.123 0.134 95% C.L. 0.197 0.231 0.253 0.258 0.266 0.273 0.274 0.274 0.274 0.275 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.240 0.346 0.218 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670611 1 0.05205723 0.07031441 0.00000000 0.25305426 2 670612 1 0.06598297 0.06182306 0.00000000 0.24662471 3 670631 1 0.07798833 0.02389235 0.00000000 0.21608508 4 670632 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002902 0.24556395 5 670641 1 0.13059610 0.12195111 0.00000000 0.27729321 6 670642 1 0.11533983 0.19963901 0.00000000 0.28238735 7 670651 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028619 0.32239047 8 670652 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036451 0.31249037 9 670661 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055556 0.24952830 10 670662 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031545 0.27881169 11 670671 1 0.06905571 0.18180092 0.00000000 0.25134909 12 670672 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040719 0.25428882 13 670681 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040458 0.32041830 14 670682 1 0.05549137 0.13943271 0.00000000 0.32322285 15 670691 1 0.02077675 0.07628362 0.00000000 0.29038492 16 670692 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029009 0.28161839 17 670701 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014473 0.26131028 18 670702 1 0.09524292 0.09560081 0.00000000 0.25269499 19 670711 1 0.06815976 0.17510399 0.00000000 0.28213787 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670712 1 0.04822377 0.05218270 0.00000000 0.27740911 21 670731 1 0.14142449 0.03546603 0.00000000 0.27742198 22 670732 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051861 0.33002448 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.084 0.333 3.518 0.065 0.388 2 670612 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.080 0.253 3.262 0.058 0.506 3 670631 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.077 0.620 5.272 0.065 0.365 4 670632 1908 1982 75 1.000 0.064 0.483 2.954 0.056 0.254 5 670641 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.067 1.801 9.504 0.061 0.246 6 670642 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.072 0.168 3.374 0.063 0.378 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.094 1.679 7.284 0.056 0.686 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.000 0.050 0.053 2.628 0.052 0.126 9 670661 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.047 0.002 2.296 0.048 0.115 10 670662 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.057 0.076 2.160 0.050 0.369 11 670671 1924 1982 59 1.000 0.058 0.211 3.390 0.055 0.166 12 670672 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.065 0.244 5.018 0.054 0.303 13 670681 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.070 0.333 3.625 0.047 0.563 14 670682 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.059 -0.093 2.847 0.062 0.190 15 670691 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.051 -0.522 3.847 0.049 0.090 16 670692 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.093 0.963 3.233 0.045 0.742 17 670701 1880 1982 103 1.000 0.069 0.785 4.761 0.064 0.239 18 670702 1901 1982 82 1.000 0.082 0.982 5.169 0.085 0.090 19 670711 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.058 1.380 7.394 0.053 0.238 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.072 0.825 4.649 0.056 0.402 21 670731 1891 1982 92 1.000 0.096 1.611 7.389 0.078 0.316 22 670732 1933 1982 50 1.000 0.076 0.735 3.733 0.051 0.546 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 1.000 0.070 0.587 4.423 0.058 0.333 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.014 0.618 1.929 0.010 0.186 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.070 0.408 3.679 0.056 0.309 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.021 0.796 1.935 0.012 0.212 MINIMUM VALUE 50 1.000 0.047 -0.522 2.160 0.045 0.090 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.058 0.168 3.233 0.051 0.190 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.080 0.963 5.169 0.063 0.402 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.000 0.096 1.801 9.504 0.085 0.742 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670611 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670612 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670631 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670632 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670641 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670642 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670651 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670652 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670661 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670662 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670671 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670672 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670681 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670682 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670691 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670692 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670701 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670702 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670711 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670712 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670731 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 670732 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.078 0.139 4.080 0.065 0.298 2 670612 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.071 0.223 3.231 0.058 0.382 3 670631 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.074 0.592 5.277 0.065 0.312 4 670632 1908 1982 75 1.000 0.061 0.381 2.893 0.056 0.183 5 670641 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.063 1.457 8.009 0.061 0.143 6 670642 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.066 -0.108 3.440 0.063 0.274 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.081 1.331 6.780 0.056 0.596 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.000 0.049 0.081 2.915 0.052 0.087 9 670661 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.045 0.104 2.126 0.048 0.038 10 670662 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.053 -0.024 2.228 0.050 0.297 11 670671 1924 1982 59 1.000 0.053 -0.064 3.310 0.055 0.024 12 670672 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.052 0.166 5.503 0.054 -0.024 13 670681 1919 1982 64 0.999 0.055 0.122 3.326 0.047 0.355 14 670682 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.056 -0.180 2.939 0.062 0.115 15 670691 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.049 -0.448 3.787 0.049 0.031 16 670692 1905 1982 78 0.999 0.055 -0.221 3.051 0.046 0.448 17 670701 1880 1982 103 1.000 0.063 0.915 5.509 0.064 0.132 18 670702 1901 1982 82 1.000 0.081 1.044 5.457 0.086 0.051 19 670711 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.054 1.128 6.719 0.053 0.121 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.063 0.980 7.287 0.056 0.226 21 670731 1891 1982 92 1.000 0.095 1.503 6.992 0.078 0.303 22 670732 1933 1982 50 1.000 0.063 0.614 3.581 0.053 0.345 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 1.000 0.063 0.442 4.475 0.058 0.215 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.013 0.590 1.792 0.010 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.062 0.194 3.684 0.056 0.204 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.018 1.004 2.458 0.012 0.225 MINIMUM VALUE 50 0.999 0.045 -0.448 2.126 0.046 -0.024 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.053 -0.024 3.051 0.052 0.087 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.071 0.980 5.509 0.063 0.312 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.000 0.095 1.503 8.009 0.086 0.596 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.253 0.161 0.011 -0.082 2.905 -0.136 0.702 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.136 SERIES 670631 AND 670651 72 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.702 SERIES 670641 AND 670642 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.218 SDEV 0.179 SERR 0.022 EPS 0.848 NSS 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.999 0.040 0.443 4.301 0.042 0.054 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.176 0.113 -0.064 33 70 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 1.07 1.00 1.07 2.14 12.78 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.10 0.00 0.83 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.053 0.102 -0.187 -0.054 0.102 -0.002 -0.066 -0.068 0.023 -0.029 PACF 0.053 0.099 -0.200 -0.044 0.158 -0.048 -0.125 0.000 0.066 -0.092 95% C.L. 0.197 0.198 0.200 0.206 0.207 0.209 0.209 0.210 0.211 0.211 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.041 0.113 -0.197 -0.033 0.074 -0.031 -0.186 -0.167 0.073 0.036 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.041 2 0.036 0.112 3 0.060 0.119 -0.209 4 0.054 0.123 -0.207 -0.028 5 0.057 0.150 -0.223 -0.035 0.132 6 0.068 0.147 -0.241 -0.023 0.137 -0.082 7 0.049 0.180 -0.247 -0.080 0.172 -0.065 -0.238 8 0.025 0.173 -0.230 -0.088 0.148 -0.047 -0.233 -0.099 9 0.041 0.210 -0.222 -0.112 0.162 -0.011 -0.261 -0.103 0.158 10 0.047 0.206 -0.233 -0.112 0.169 -0.016 -0.270 -0.094 0.159 -0.042 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 361.51 363.34 364.04 361.46 363.38 363.56 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 364.87 360.86 361.84 361.25 363.07 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.060 0.119 -0.209 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.70 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.05 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.060 0.123 -0.194 -0.009 -0.049 0.036 -0.002 0.015 -0.007 0.0017 -0.004 0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670611 3 0.203 0.306 0.026 -0.051 2 670612 3 0.215 0.274 0.220 0.072 3 670631 3 0.163 0.292 0.149 -0.098 4 670632 3 0.197 0.161 0.403 -0.121 5 670641 3 0.056 0.145 -0.064 -0.161 6 670642 3 0.084 0.267 0.059 -0.088 7 670651 3 0.363 0.633 -0.056 -0.010 8 670652 3 0.058 0.077 -0.094 -0.179 9 670661 3 0.049 0.053 0.097 -0.190 10 670662 3 0.106 0.290 0.081 -0.121 11 670671 3 0.045 0.037 0.183 -0.090 12 670672 3 0.051 0.001 0.137 -0.155 13 670681 3 0.223 0.245 0.230 0.089 14 670682 3 0.078 0.103 0.026 0.158 15 670691 3 0.161 -0.009 -0.155 -0.288 16 670692 3 0.265 0.383 0.262 -0.129 17 670701 3 0.046 0.136 -0.010 -0.162 18 670702 3 0.044 0.047 -0.122 -0.084 19 670711 3 0.107 0.101 -0.098 -0.274 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670712 3 0.078 0.224 0.031 -0.085 21 670731 3 0.116 0.337 -0.119 -0.073 22 670732 3 0.174 0.344 0.121 -0.237 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.131 0.202 0.059 -0.104 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.086 0.154 0.146 0.110 MEDIAN 3 0.106 0.193 0.045 -0.109 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.142 0.215 0.213 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.044 -0.009 -0.155 -0.288 LOWER HINGE 3 0.056 0.077 -0.064 -0.162 UPPER HINGE 3 0.197 0.292 0.149 -0.073 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.363 0.633 0.403 0.158 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.074 -0.051 3.486 0.077 -0.027 2 670612 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.064 0.464 3.350 0.067 0.012 3 670631 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.069 0.522 4.586 0.075 -0.027 4 670632 1908 1982 75 1.000 0.054 0.040 2.973 0.059 -0.009 5 670641 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.061 1.021 6.847 0.065 0.004 6 670642 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.064 -0.215 3.684 0.071 0.002 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.065 0.684 5.555 0.071 0.001 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.000 0.047 0.185 3.223 0.052 -0.015 9 670661 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.044 -0.028 2.114 0.050 0.009 10 670662 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.051 -0.226 2.571 0.057 -0.004 11 670671 1924 1982 59 1.000 0.052 0.082 3.500 0.054 0.004 12 670672 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.050 0.156 5.367 0.054 -0.010 13 670681 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.049 0.279 3.569 0.053 0.010 14 670682 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.055 -0.195 2.883 0.065 0.029 15 670691 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.046 -0.539 3.505 0.049 0.063 16 670692 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.047 0.052 3.018 0.053 0.016 17 670701 1880 1982 103 1.000 0.062 0.906 5.149 0.069 -0.003 18 670702 1901 1982 82 1.000 0.080 1.018 5.203 0.087 -0.011 19 670711 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.051 0.848 5.626 0.054 0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.061 1.073 7.555 0.063 -0.013 21 670731 1891 1982 92 1.000 0.089 1.779 9.678 0.090 -0.002 22 670732 1933 1982 50 1.000 0.057 0.741 4.070 0.064 -0.013 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 1.000 0.059 0.391 4.432 0.064 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.012 0.563 1.824 0.012 0.019 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.056 0.232 3.626 0.064 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.013 0.875 2.144 0.017 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 50 1.000 0.044 -0.539 2.114 0.049 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.050 -0.028 3.223 0.054 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.064 0.848 5.367 0.071 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.000 0.089 1.779 9.678 0.090 0.063 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.262 0.141 0.009 -0.052 3.630 -0.144 0.735 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.144 SERIES 670611 AND 670681 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.735 SERIES 670641 AND 670642 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.242 SDEV 0.148 SERR 0.018 EPS 0.864 NSS 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 1.000 0.038 0.144 3.719 0.044 -0.186 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.181 0.117 -0.072 30 73 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.56 1.01 1.07 1.63 32.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.184 0.101 -0.081 -0.070 0.120 0.000 -0.066 -0.059 0.045 -0.021 PACF -0.184 0.069 -0.053 -0.103 0.107 0.049 -0.097 -0.084 0.066 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.197 0.204 0.206 0.207 0.208 0.210 0.210 0.211 0.212 0.212 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.042 -0.192 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.007 -0.020 -0.087 0.129 0.015 -0.096 -0.065 0.033 -0.011 PACF 0.002 0.007 -0.020 -0.087 0.130 0.015 -0.105 -0.068 0.064 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.197 0.197 0.197 0.197 0.199 0.202 0.202 0.204 0.204 0.205 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.009 0.002 0.007 -0.021 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 1.000 0.038 0.180 3.908 0.040 0.061 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.060 0.081 -0.202 -0.080 0.077 0.029 -0.046 -0.052 0.042 -0.048 PACF 0.060 0.078 -0.213 -0.063 0.129 -0.014 -0.107 -0.007 0.093 -0.099 95% C.L. 0.197 0.198 0.199 0.207 0.208 0.209 0.209 0.210 0.210 0.211 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES