RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO565P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO565P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Nederland CO, (EK ab 611 LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCPU - 670 2 United States of America blue spruce, Colorado spruce 2500 3959-1053 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 670631 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 1.657 0.692 1.997 8.567 0.356 0.244 2 670612 1894 1982 89 1.229 0.406 0.475 2.565 0.289 0.429 3 670631 1895 1982 88 1.521 0.739 4.975 33.613 0.331 0.101 4 670632 1908 1982 75 1.457 0.479 0.897 4.127 0.319 0.237 5 670641 1921 1982 62 1.752 0.720 2.593 11.553 0.286 0.349 6 670642 1921 1982 62 1.723 0.695 3.376 16.532 0.273 0.176 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.569 0.461 0.501 3.288 0.268 0.343 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.303 0.374 1.204 5.373 0.224 0.380 9 670661 1930 1982 53 1.175 0.348 1.939 8.413 0.295 0.024 10 670662 1927 1982 56 1.323 0.354 2.088 8.549 0.258 -0.087 11 670671 1924 1982 59 1.023 0.266 0.091 2.485 0.295 0.082 12 670672 1930 1982 53 1.136 0.336 1.719 7.264 0.232 0.312 13 670681 1919 1982 64 2.373 0.803 0.826 3.680 0.221 0.572 14 670682 1915 1982 68 2.065 0.488 0.615 3.470 0.220 0.224 15 670691 1927 1982 56 1.461 0.337 0.871 4.128 0.212 0.270 16 670692 1905 1982 78 1.553 0.570 2.987 17.239 0.220 0.488 17 670701 1880 1982 103 1.861 0.661 4.306 30.809 0.253 0.272 18 670702 1901 1982 82 2.257 0.989 1.991 8.877 0.323 0.410 19 670711 1889 1982 94 1.679 0.458 0.739 3.464 0.214 0.517 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 1.703 0.476 0.965 4.166 0.219 0.475 21 670731 1891 1982 92 2.285 1.299 1.918 7.537 0.361 0.489 22 670732 1933 1982 50 2.158 1.025 2.639 9.115 0.267 0.657 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1880 TO 1982 103 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 1.648 0.590 1.805 9.310 0.270 0.317 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.389 0.264 1.279 8.469 0.047 0.186 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.613 0.483 1.819 7.401 0.267 0.328 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 27 0.538 0.346 1.767 5.435 0.075 0.251 MINIMUM VALUE 50 1.023 0.266 0.091 2.485 0.212 -0.087 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.323 0.374 0.826 3.680 0.221 0.224 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 86 1.861 0.720 2.593 9.115 0.295 0.475 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 2.373 1.299 4.975 33.613 0.361 0.657 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.211 0.206 0.014 0.175 2.696 -0.262 0.822 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.262 SERIES 670681 AND 670702 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.822 SERIES 670641 AND 670642 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.193 SDEV 0.241 SERR 0.030 EPS 0.827 NSS 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 1.662 0.374 1.589 7.376 0.175 0.433 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.373 0.300 -0.045 49 54 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.91 3.06 1.02 1.22 4.28 113.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.11 0.00 0.82 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 70. 29. 50. 59. 88. 103. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.429 0.258 0.196 0.278 0.228 0.107 0.038 0.051 0.090 0.063 PACF 0.429 0.091 0.069 0.195 0.042 -0.068 -0.049 -0.001 0.040 0.005 95% C.L. 0.197 0.230 0.241 0.247 0.259 0.267 0.269 0.269 0.269 0.270 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.203 0.445 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670611 1 1.00245237 0.03884209 0.00000000 1.32714450 2 670612 1 1.06249845 0.06875516 0.00000000 1.06185234 3 670631 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01137269 2.06480074 4 670632 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00384239 1.60347748 5 670641 1 1.39294791 0.03060853 0.00000000 1.13713992 6 670642 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01644104 2.24063468 7 670651 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00264486 1.47290683 8 670652 1 2.77459741 0.67944509 0.00000000 1.25950432 9 670661 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00649089 0.99965167 10 670662 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00219412 1.26032472 11 670671 1 0.70392746 0.34137094 0.00000000 0.99338853 12 670672 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00699242 1.32445574 13 670681 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02656616 1.50988102 14 670682 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00778047 1.79642665 15 670691 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00815414 1.22814286 16 670692 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01330012 1.02746582 17 670701 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00113452 1.80178177 18 670702 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01911113 3.05055094 19 670711 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00136531 1.61450922 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670712 1 0.82288879 0.06062809 0.00000000 1.56339216 21 670731 1 2.94654083 0.02612766 0.00000000 1.18494463 22 670732 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02640816 2.83160806 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.375 1.757 8.629 0.352 0.089 2 670612 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.279 0.661 3.895 0.286 0.180 3 670631 1895 1982 88 1.001 0.424 4.105 25.975 0.329 0.261 4 670632 1908 1982 75 1.000 0.319 0.655 3.452 0.315 0.223 5 670641 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.350 2.632 13.116 0.281 0.241 6 670642 1921 1982 62 1.001 0.325 2.358 9.784 0.269 0.076 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.293 0.517 3.100 0.264 0.331 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.000 0.247 0.548 4.020 0.220 0.333 9 670661 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.281 2.038 8.849 0.289 -0.080 10 670662 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.267 2.115 8.623 0.253 -0.100 11 670671 1924 1982 59 1.000 0.249 0.128 2.704 0.291 -0.036 12 670672 1930 1982 53 0.999 0.270 1.478 6.564 0.228 0.244 13 670681 1919 1982 64 1.003 0.279 1.009 4.063 0.217 0.405 14 670682 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.231 1.124 5.543 0.217 0.108 15 670691 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.207 0.649 3.976 0.208 0.154 16 670692 1905 1982 78 1.005 0.301 1.988 9.253 0.218 0.403 17 670701 1880 1982 103 1.000 0.357 4.473 32.500 0.251 0.266 18 670702 1901 1982 82 1.000 0.358 1.390 5.659 0.318 0.248 19 670711 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.271 0.676 3.319 0.212 0.503 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.254 0.729 3.527 0.216 0.369 21 670731 1891 1982 92 1.000 0.508 4.310 27.080 0.357 0.330 22 670732 1933 1982 50 0.998 0.388 2.042 7.428 0.262 0.544 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 1.000 0.311 1.699 9.139 0.266 0.231 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.001 0.071 1.263 8.407 0.047 0.173 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.287 1.434 6.112 0.263 0.246 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.001 0.090 1.454 5.359 0.073 0.224 MINIMUM VALUE 50 0.998 0.207 0.128 2.704 0.208 -0.100 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.267 0.661 3.895 0.218 0.108 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.357 2.115 9.253 0.291 0.333 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.005 0.508 4.473 32.500 0.357 0.544 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670611 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670612 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670631 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670632 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670641 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670642 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670651 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670652 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670661 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670662 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670671 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670672 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670681 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670682 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670691 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670692 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670701 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670702 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670711 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670712 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670731 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 670732 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 0.998 0.373 2.025 10.332 0.351 0.062 2 670612 1894 1982 89 0.998 0.264 0.505 3.688 0.286 0.092 3 670631 1895 1982 88 0.996 0.384 3.673 22.877 0.328 0.178 4 670632 1908 1982 75 0.997 0.290 0.740 3.524 0.315 0.046 5 670641 1921 1982 62 0.998 0.336 2.341 11.336 0.281 0.208 6 670642 1921 1982 62 0.997 0.301 1.913 7.430 0.268 0.064 7 670651 1911 1982 72 0.999 0.273 0.367 2.876 0.265 0.252 8 670652 1918 1982 65 0.995 0.209 0.424 3.389 0.220 0.064 9 670661 1930 1982 53 0.999 0.264 1.633 7.030 0.289 -0.144 10 670662 1927 1982 56 0.999 0.263 2.103 8.593 0.253 -0.125 11 670671 1924 1982 59 0.999 0.242 0.168 2.916 0.291 -0.076 12 670672 1930 1982 53 0.998 0.241 1.669 6.688 0.228 0.054 13 670681 1919 1982 64 0.994 0.231 0.808 4.085 0.216 0.192 14 670682 1915 1982 68 0.997 0.198 0.659 4.129 0.217 -0.051 15 670691 1927 1982 56 0.998 0.191 0.548 3.848 0.207 -0.005 16 670692 1905 1982 78 0.997 0.240 1.856 10.020 0.218 0.183 17 670701 1880 1982 103 0.997 0.346 4.871 36.752 0.251 0.230 18 670702 1901 1982 82 0.996 0.338 1.335 5.589 0.318 0.176 19 670711 1889 1982 94 0.994 0.208 0.060 3.512 0.212 0.241 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 0.997 0.226 0.614 3.775 0.216 0.246 21 670731 1891 1982 92 0.996 0.461 3.608 21.958 0.357 0.283 22 670732 1933 1982 50 0.991 0.310 1.325 5.392 0.261 0.355 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 0.997 0.281 1.511 8.625 0.266 0.115 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.002 0.069 1.254 8.362 0.047 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 0.997 0.264 1.330 5.490 0.263 0.134 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.002 0.105 1.477 6.331 0.073 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 50 0.991 0.191 0.060 2.876 0.207 -0.144 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 0.996 0.231 0.548 3.688 0.218 0.046 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 0.998 0.336 2.025 10.020 0.291 0.230 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 0.999 0.461 4.871 36.752 0.357 0.355 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.258 0.153 0.010 0.255 3.246 -0.118 0.765 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.118 SERIES 670611 AND 670702 72 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.765 SERIES 670641 AND 670642 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.246 SDEV 0.181 SERR 0.022 EPS 0.867 NSS 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.983 0.150 0.502 3.700 0.165 0.088 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.285 0.193 0.000 33 70 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 1.26 1.00 1.06 2.31 9.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.07 0.00 0.84 0.91 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.087 0.061 -0.023 0.035 -0.033 -0.065 -0.208 -0.188 -0.082 -0.085 PACF 0.087 0.054 -0.033 0.037 -0.037 -0.065 -0.194 -0.162 -0.044 -0.076 95% C.L. 0.197 0.199 0.199 0.199 0.200 0.200 0.201 0.209 0.215 0.217 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.074 0.089 -0.051 0.025 -0.092 -0.094 -0.259 -0.219 -0.082 -0.009 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.074 2 0.067 0.084 3 0.073 0.088 -0.064 4 0.074 0.086 -0.066 0.026 5 0.077 0.080 -0.058 0.032 -0.087 6 0.069 0.083 -0.064 0.040 -0.080 -0.091 7 0.048 0.064 -0.054 0.025 -0.060 -0.074 -0.235 8 0.000 0.049 -0.067 0.030 -0.071 -0.061 -0.225 -0.203 9 -0.009 0.039 -0.069 0.026 -0.070 -0.064 -0.223 -0.203 -0.044 10 -0.010 0.037 -0.072 0.026 -0.071 -0.064 -0.224 -0.202 -0.045 -0.013 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 677.29 678.73 680.00 681.58 683.51 684.73 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 685.88 682.03 679.71 681.51 683.49 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670611 0 0.004 2 670612 0 0.009 3 670631 0 0.033 4 670632 0 0.002 5 670641 0 0.047 6 670642 0 0.005 7 670651 0 0.064 8 670652 0 0.004 9 670661 0 0.021 10 670662 0 0.016 11 670671 0 0.006 12 670672 0 0.003 13 670681 0 0.038 14 670682 0 0.003 15 670691 0 0.000 16 670692 0 0.034 17 670701 0 0.054 18 670702 0 0.031 19 670711 0 0.059 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670712 0 0.061 21 670731 0 0.081 22 670732 0 0.130 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.032 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.033 MEDIAN 0 0.026 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.050 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.004 UPPER HINGE 0 0.054 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.130 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.373 2.025 10.332 0.351 0.062 2 670612 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.264 0.505 3.688 0.285 0.092 3 670631 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.384 3.673 22.877 0.327 0.178 4 670632 1908 1982 75 1.000 0.290 0.740 3.524 0.314 0.046 5 670641 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.336 2.341 11.336 0.280 0.208 6 670642 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.301 1.913 7.430 0.268 0.064 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.273 0.367 2.876 0.265 0.252 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.000 0.209 0.424 3.389 0.219 0.064 9 670661 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.264 1.633 7.030 0.289 -0.144 10 670662 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.263 2.103 8.593 0.253 -0.125 11 670671 1924 1982 59 1.000 0.242 0.168 2.916 0.291 -0.076 12 670672 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.241 1.669 6.688 0.227 0.054 13 670681 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.231 0.808 4.085 0.214 0.192 14 670682 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.198 0.659 4.129 0.217 -0.051 15 670691 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.191 0.548 3.848 0.207 -0.005 16 670692 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.240 1.856 10.020 0.218 0.183 17 670701 1880 1982 103 1.000 0.346 4.871 36.752 0.250 0.230 18 670702 1901 1982 82 1.000 0.338 1.335 5.589 0.317 0.176 19 670711 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.208 0.060 3.512 0.210 0.241 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.226 0.614 3.775 0.215 0.246 21 670731 1891 1982 92 1.000 0.461 3.608 21.958 0.356 0.283 22 670732 1933 1982 50 1.000 0.310 1.325 5.392 0.258 0.355 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 1.000 0.281 1.511 8.625 0.265 0.115 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.069 1.254 8.362 0.047 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.264 1.330 5.490 0.261 0.134 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.105 1.477 6.331 0.073 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 50 1.000 0.191 0.060 2.876 0.207 -0.144 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.231 0.548 3.688 0.218 0.046 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.336 2.025 10.020 0.291 0.230 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.000 0.461 4.871 36.752 0.356 0.355 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.258 0.153 0.010 0.255 3.246 -0.118 0.765 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.118 SERIES 670611 AND 670702 72 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.765 SERIES 670641 AND 670642 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.246 SDEV 0.181 SERR 0.022 EPS 0.867 NSS 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.986 0.150 0.502 3.691 0.164 0.088 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.285 0.193 0.000 33 70 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 1.28 1.00 1.06 2.34 9.76 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.08 0.00 0.84 0.91 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.087 0.061 -0.021 0.034 -0.034 -0.065 -0.207 -0.188 -0.082 -0.085 PACF 0.087 0.054 -0.032 0.035 -0.037 -0.065 -0.194 -0.162 -0.044 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.197 0.199 0.199 0.199 0.200 0.200 0.201 0.209 0.215 0.217 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.986 0.150 0.502 3.691 0.164 0.088 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.087 0.061 -0.021 0.034 -0.034 -0.065 -0.207 -0.188 -0.082 -0.085 PACF 0.087 0.054 -0.032 0.035 -0.037 -0.065 -0.194 -0.162 -0.044 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.197 0.199 0.199 0.199 0.200 0.200 0.201 0.209 0.215 0.217 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES