RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO565X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO565X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Nederland CO, (EK ab 611 DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCPU - 670 2 United States of America blue spruce, Colorado spruce 2500 3959-1053 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 670631 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 0.827 0.067 -0.347 2.823 0.086 0.133 2 670612 1894 1982 89 0.825 0.090 0.247 3.032 0.085 0.573 3 670631 1895 1982 88 0.817 0.049 -0.691 3.718 0.059 0.221 4 670632 1908 1982 75 0.809 0.053 0.036 2.933 0.058 0.413 5 670641 1921 1982 62 0.829 0.055 -0.656 3.648 0.078 -0.076 6 670642 1921 1982 62 0.797 0.057 -1.065 6.286 0.080 -0.085 7 670651 1911 1982 72 0.779 0.068 -0.436 2.358 0.062 0.626 8 670652 1918 1982 65 0.728 0.069 -0.449 2.401 0.063 0.640 9 670661 1930 1982 53 0.759 0.066 -0.365 3.074 0.104 -0.025 10 670662 1927 1982 56 0.760 0.058 0.174 3.006 0.078 0.216 11 670671 1924 1982 59 0.743 0.052 0.312 2.569 0.072 0.234 12 670672 1930 1982 53 0.743 0.055 -0.145 2.766 0.077 0.218 13 670681 1919 1982 64 0.890 0.056 0.472 2.684 0.058 0.367 14 670682 1915 1982 68 0.878 0.052 -0.365 3.001 0.061 0.205 15 670691 1927 1982 56 0.803 0.038 -0.165 3.177 0.057 -0.073 16 670692 1905 1982 78 0.783 0.045 0.013 2.748 0.056 0.263 17 670701 1880 1982 103 0.774 0.093 -1.043 4.087 0.057 0.794 18 670702 1901 1982 82 0.806 0.046 -0.326 3.447 0.057 0.213 19 670711 1889 1982 94 0.799 0.055 0.044 4.292 0.064 0.260 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 0.810 0.054 -1.059 5.335 0.058 0.357 21 670731 1891 1982 92 0.799 0.068 -0.656 3.075 0.083 0.239 22 670732 1933 1982 50 0.841 0.063 -0.941 4.432 0.071 0.300 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1880 TO 1982 103 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 0.800 0.060 -0.337 3.404 0.069 0.273 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.041 0.013 0.459 0.975 0.013 0.235 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 0.801 0.056 -0.356 3.053 0.063 0.237 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 27 0.051 0.015 0.693 0.952 0.020 0.163 MINIMUM VALUE 50 0.728 0.038 -1.065 2.358 0.056 -0.085 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 0.774 0.052 -0.656 2.766 0.058 0.205 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 86 0.825 0.067 0.036 3.718 0.078 0.367 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 0.890 0.093 0.472 6.286 0.104 0.794 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.348 0.193 0.013 -0.177 2.515 -0.147 0.806 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.147 SERIES 670661 AND 670731 53 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.806 SERIES 670651 AND 670652 65 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.342 SDEV 0.216 SERR 0.027 EPS 0.912 NSS 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.782 0.066 -2.352 9.811 0.052 0.695 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.500 0.182 -0.087 22 81 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.56 1.00 1.04 1.60 21.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.83 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 70. 29. 50. 59. 88. 103. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.688 0.671 0.583 0.518 0.345 0.304 0.215 0.177 0.148 0.076 PACF 0.688 0.375 0.081 0.001 -0.255 -0.028 -0.005 0.063 0.101 -0.116 95% C.L. 0.197 0.275 0.333 0.370 0.397 0.409 0.418 0.422 0.425 0.427 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.593 0.320 0.367 0.168 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670611 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097595 0.86228871 2 670612 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00100272 0.77982128 3 670631 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014210 0.81190890 4 670632 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00129417 0.75935495 5 670641 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023595 0.83598095 6 670642 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056508 0.77961928 7 670651 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00191427 0.70874023 8 670652 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00184091 0.66678846 9 670661 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042493 0.77034104 10 670662 1 0.16411164 0.01427998 0.00000000 0.64782733 11 670671 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00137697 0.70191115 12 670672 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00066602 0.76062411 13 670681 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00105243 0.85563987 14 670682 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00110299 0.84003514 15 670691 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009399 0.80071425 16 670692 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082449 0.75025308 17 670701 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00118009 0.71261567 18 670702 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036983 0.82095754 19 670711 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00063685 0.76857924 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670712 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017289 0.80210710 21 670731 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00081832 0.76118731 22 670732 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00151165 0.80225307 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.078 -0.261 2.918 0.085 0.052 2 670612 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.104 0.094 2.870 0.084 0.526 3 670631 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.061 -0.725 3.835 0.059 0.224 4 670632 1908 1982 75 1.000 0.056 0.471 3.611 0.058 0.156 5 670641 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.067 -0.682 3.696 0.076 -0.081 6 670642 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.070 -0.953 5.816 0.079 -0.128 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.071 -0.200 2.336 0.061 0.374 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.000 0.081 -0.285 2.482 0.062 0.482 9 670661 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.087 -0.393 2.959 0.102 -0.036 10 670662 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.069 0.091 3.078 0.077 0.034 11 670671 1924 1982 59 1.000 0.063 0.213 3.440 0.071 0.042 12 670672 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.073 -0.076 2.688 0.075 0.189 13 670681 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.058 0.367 2.547 0.057 0.258 14 670682 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.054 -0.157 3.102 0.061 0.036 15 670691 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.048 -0.149 3.219 0.056 -0.072 16 670692 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.053 0.007 2.726 0.055 0.109 17 670701 1880 1982 103 1.000 0.111 -1.363 5.237 0.057 0.733 18 670702 1901 1982 82 1.000 0.057 -0.235 3.223 0.056 0.191 19 670711 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.065 -0.242 4.256 0.063 0.170 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.067 -1.076 5.479 0.058 0.351 21 670731 1891 1982 92 1.000 0.080 -0.721 3.293 0.082 0.142 22 670732 1933 1982 50 1.000 0.070 -0.968 4.614 0.070 0.184 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 1.000 0.070 -0.329 3.519 0.068 0.179 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.016 0.484 0.985 0.013 0.213 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.068 -0.239 3.221 0.063 0.163 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.020 0.728 0.965 0.019 0.223 MINIMUM VALUE 50 1.000 0.048 -1.363 2.336 0.055 -0.128 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.058 -0.721 2.870 0.058 0.036 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.078 0.007 3.835 0.077 0.258 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.000 0.111 0.471 5.816 0.102 0.733 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670611 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670612 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670631 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670632 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670641 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670642 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670651 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670652 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670661 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670662 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670671 -67 39 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670672 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670681 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670682 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670691 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670692 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670701 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670702 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670711 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670712 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670731 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 670732 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.075 -0.425 3.018 0.084 -0.024 2 670612 1894 1982 89 0.999 0.085 -0.077 2.950 0.084 0.307 3 670631 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.058 -0.794 3.641 0.059 0.136 4 670632 1908 1982 75 1.000 0.049 0.144 2.972 0.058 -0.079 5 670641 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.062 -1.026 4.468 0.076 -0.204 6 670642 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.066 -0.957 5.514 0.079 -0.297 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.057 -0.239 2.632 0.061 0.068 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.000 0.060 -0.029 3.004 0.062 0.065 9 670661 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.082 -0.572 2.873 0.102 -0.151 10 670662 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.065 -0.106 3.274 0.077 -0.071 11 670671 1924 1982 59 1.000 0.059 -0.122 3.242 0.071 -0.078 12 670672 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.062 0.128 2.298 0.075 -0.074 13 670681 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.046 -0.145 2.748 0.057 -0.156 14 670682 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.051 -0.322 2.736 0.060 -0.075 15 670691 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.047 -0.238 3.233 0.056 -0.087 16 670692 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.049 -0.114 2.702 0.055 0.000 17 670701 1880 1982 103 0.999 0.070 -1.108 7.201 0.056 0.309 18 670702 1901 1982 82 1.000 0.049 -0.045 3.848 0.056 -0.044 19 670711 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.062 -0.357 4.276 0.063 0.079 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.060 -0.987 5.517 0.058 0.207 21 670731 1891 1982 92 1.000 0.076 -0.761 3.471 0.082 0.045 22 670732 1933 1982 50 1.000 0.066 -0.661 4.589 0.070 0.062 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 1.000 0.062 -0.400 3.646 0.068 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.011 0.393 1.192 0.013 0.152 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.061 -0.280 3.237 0.063 -0.034 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.016 0.655 1.404 0.019 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 50 0.999 0.046 -1.108 2.298 0.055 -0.297 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.051 -0.761 2.873 0.058 -0.079 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.066 -0.106 4.276 0.077 0.068 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.000 0.085 0.144 7.201 0.102 0.309 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.382 0.147 0.010 -0.341 3.261 -0.073 0.752 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.073 SERIES 670662 AND 670731 56 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.752 SERIES 670641 AND 670642 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.333 SDEV 0.172 SERR 0.021 EPS 0.909 NSS 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 0.999 0.050 -0.519 5.013 0.058 -0.111 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.047 -0.019 0.059 32 71 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 1.37 1.00 1.09 2.46 17.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.110 0.003 -0.021 -0.041 -0.155 0.044 0.005 0.035 0.027 -0.166 PACF -0.110 -0.009 -0.022 -0.046 -0.168 0.007 0.006 0.028 0.020 -0.191 95% C.L. 0.197 0.199 0.199 0.200 0.200 0.204 0.205 0.205 0.205 0.205 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.241 -0.012 -0.006 0.112 -0.257 0.064 0.026 -0.096 0.001 -0.069 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.241 2 -0.259 -0.075 3 -0.261 -0.082 -0.029 4 -0.258 -0.073 -0.001 0.109 5 -0.234 -0.073 -0.017 0.053 -0.219 6 -0.244 -0.071 -0.017 0.049 -0.230 -0.045 7 -0.244 -0.068 -0.018 0.050 -0.229 -0.042 0.014 8 -0.242 -0.072 -0.043 0.055 -0.231 -0.049 -0.013 -0.108 9 -0.243 -0.072 -0.043 0.054 -0.230 -0.050 -0.013 -0.109 -0.004 10 -0.243 -0.089 -0.045 0.046 -0.266 -0.041 -0.020 -0.120 -0.042 -0.155 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 396.60 392.43 393.85 395.77 396.53 393.47 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 395.26 397.24 398.04 400.04 399.55 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.241 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.82 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.18 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.241 0.058 -0.014 0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670611 1 0.017 -0.024 2 670612 1 0.118 0.307 3 670631 1 0.035 0.136 4 670632 1 0.007 -0.081 5 670641 1 0.045 -0.204 6 670642 1 0.095 -0.308 7 670651 1 0.013 0.072 8 670652 1 0.007 0.069 9 670661 1 0.073 -0.152 10 670662 1 0.089 -0.071 11 670671 1 0.011 -0.079 12 670672 1 0.052 -0.079 13 670681 1 0.025 -0.157 14 670682 1 0.014 -0.076 15 670691 1 0.010 -0.087 16 670692 1 0.012 0.000 17 670701 1 0.113 0.325 18 670702 1 0.003 -0.045 19 670711 1 0.006 0.079 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670712 1 0.045 0.211 21 670731 1 0.023 0.045 22 670732 1 0.025 0.063 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.038 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.036 0.156 MEDIAN 1 0.024 -0.034 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.041 0.153 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.003 -0.308 LOWER HINGE 1 0.011 -0.081 UPPER HINGE 1 0.052 0.072 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.118 0.325 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670611 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.075 -0.438 3.045 0.083 0.003 2 670612 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.081 -0.045 3.276 0.100 -0.049 3 670631 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.057 -0.809 3.841 0.062 0.017 4 670632 1908 1982 75 1.000 0.049 0.143 2.990 0.056 0.002 5 670641 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.061 -0.867 4.072 0.067 -0.013 6 670642 1921 1982 62 1.000 0.062 -0.863 5.745 0.064 0.001 7 670651 1911 1982 72 1.000 0.057 -0.220 2.617 0.062 -0.007 8 670652 1918 1982 65 1.000 0.060 -0.105 2.981 0.065 -0.006 9 670661 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.081 -0.428 2.864 0.096 -0.034 10 670662 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.065 0.000 3.316 0.075 -0.021 11 670671 1924 1982 59 1.000 0.058 -0.190 3.378 0.068 0.005 12 670672 1930 1982 53 1.000 0.061 0.141 2.326 0.071 0.019 13 670681 1919 1982 64 1.000 0.045 -0.176 2.941 0.052 0.001 14 670682 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.050 -0.290 2.819 0.058 -0.007 15 670691 1927 1982 56 1.000 0.047 -0.221 3.431 0.054 0.005 16 670692 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.049 -0.114 2.702 0.055 0.000 17 670701 1880 1982 103 1.000 0.066 -0.982 6.975 0.066 -0.029 18 670702 1901 1982 82 1.000 0.049 -0.038 3.871 0.055 -0.002 19 670711 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.061 -0.338 4.134 0.066 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670712 1889 1982 94 1.000 0.059 -0.608 4.479 0.064 0.003 21 670731 1891 1982 92 1.000 0.076 -0.776 3.481 0.084 -0.006 22 670732 1933 1982 50 1.000 0.066 -0.653 4.606 0.072 -0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 72 1.000 0.061 -0.358 3.631 0.068 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.000 0.011 0.345 1.085 0.013 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 70 1.000 0.060 -0.255 3.347 0.065 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.000 0.015 0.549 1.131 0.014 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 50 1.000 0.045 -0.982 2.326 0.052 -0.049 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 59 1.000 0.050 -0.653 2.941 0.058 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.066 -0.105 4.072 0.072 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 103 1.000 0.081 0.143 6.975 0.100 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.381 0.139 0.009 -0.234 3.463 -0.085 0.714 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.085 SERIES 670661 AND 670731 53 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.714 SERIES 670641 AND 670642 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.11 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1940. CORR 66. RBAR 0.361 SDEV 0.162 SERR 0.020 EPS 0.919 NSS 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 1.000 0.049 -0.482 4.701 0.060 -0.225 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.044 -0.017 0.057 34 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 1.38 1.00 1.04 2.42 22.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.83 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.223 -0.007 -0.004 -0.030 -0.109 0.033 -0.021 0.023 0.059 -0.164 PACF -0.223 -0.060 -0.020 -0.038 -0.132 -0.028 -0.032 0.006 0.057 -0.162 95% C.L. 0.197 0.207 0.207 0.207 0.207 0.209 0.209 0.209 0.209 0.210 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.056 -0.230 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.008 -0.060 -0.013 -0.059 -0.117 0.007 -0.012 0.033 0.033 -0.174 PACF -0.008 -0.060 -0.014 -0.063 -0.121 -0.004 -0.030 0.025 0.017 -0.189 95% C.L. 0.197 0.197 0.198 0.198 0.199 0.201 0.201 0.201 0.201 0.202 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.004 -0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1880 1982 103 1.000 0.049 -0.478 4.670 0.061 -0.236 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.233 -0.002 -0.005 -0.028 -0.109 0.034 -0.021 0.022 0.060 -0.163 PACF -0.233 -0.059 -0.020 -0.036 -0.133 -0.029 -0.031 0.005 0.059 -0.160 95% C.L. 0.197 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.208 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.211 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.061 -0.241 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.17 MINUTES