RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO566E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO566E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Arapahoe CO, (EK ab 211) WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 670 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3320 4003-10535 1610 1982 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 670241 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1887 1887 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 670281 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1918 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 670291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1901 1906 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670211 1869 1982 114 0.781 0.469 0.235 1.657 0.192 0.951 2 670212 1856 1982 127 0.795 0.561 0.289 1.600 0.210 0.949 3 670221 1910 1982 73 1.383 0.405 0.012 3.193 0.225 0.548 4 670222 1893 1982 90 1.012 0.244 -0.178 3.175 0.165 0.627 5 670231 1894 1982 89 1.558 0.567 -0.304 2.364 0.179 0.821 6 670232 1905 1982 78 1.930 0.511 0.295 3.444 0.180 0.663 7 670241 1610 1982 373 0.435 0.350 1.190 4.436 0.247 0.886 8 670251 1887 1982 96 1.389 0.465 -0.136 2.418 0.137 0.849 9 670252 1858 1982 125 1.246 0.418 0.145 2.720 0.187 0.711 10 670261 1923 1982 60 1.326 0.524 -0.084 2.242 0.143 0.837 11 670262 1895 1982 88 1.364 0.520 0.127 2.495 0.162 0.816 12 670271 1694 1982 289 0.341 0.110 0.261 2.955 0.259 0.477 13 670272 1727 1982 256 0.432 0.213 0.991 3.612 0.213 0.841 14 670281 1720 1982 263 0.555 0.162 0.406 2.719 0.188 0.657 15 670282 1703 1982 280 0.490 0.157 0.633 3.058 0.181 0.732 16 670291 1813 1982 170 0.416 0.239 0.674 2.612 0.293 0.827 17 670292 1875 1982 108 0.788 0.293 0.855 3.669 0.208 0.753 18 670301 1711 1982 272 0.436 0.171 0.439 2.599 0.290 0.639 19 670311 1739 1965 227 0.298 0.117 0.339 2.589 0.246 0.748 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670321 1915 1982 68 0.382 0.111 0.895 3.085 0.172 0.704 21 670322 1830 1982 153 0.442 0.205 0.888 3.593 0.235 0.833 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1610 TO 1982 373 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 161 0.847 0.324 0.380 2.868 0.205 0.756 STANDARD DEVIATION 92 0.490 0.164 0.418 0.675 0.044 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 125 0.781 0.293 0.295 2.720 0.192 0.753 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 167 0.891 0.298 0.547 0.699 0.056 0.174 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.298 0.110 -0.304 1.600 0.137 0.477 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 89 0.435 0.171 0.127 2.495 0.179 0.663 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 256 1.326 0.469 0.674 3.193 0.235 0.837 MAXIMUM VALUE 372 1.930 0.567 1.190 4.436 0.293 0.951 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.194 0.351 0.024 -0.336 2.492 -0.684 0.957 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.684 SERIES 670212 AND 670282 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.957 SERIES 670211 AND 670212 114 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 29.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 10. 21. 21. 21. 28. 36. 66. 136. 171. RBAR 0.123 0.421 0.351 0.378 0.421 0.351 0.363 0.279 0.138 0.229 SDEV 0.000 0.193 0.329 0.230 0.161 0.242 0.156 0.255 0.384 0.281 SERR 0.000 0.061 0.072 0.050 0.035 0.046 0.026 0.031 0.033 0.021 EPS 0.386 0.825 0.791 0.813 0.852 0.835 0.869 0.859 0.758 0.861 NSS 4.5 6.5 7.0 7.1 7.9 9.3 11.7 15.7 19.5 20.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1610 1982 373 0.448 0.254 0.922 3.329 0.187 0.932 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.933 0.778 -0.119 93 280 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.55 1.21 1.00 1.16 2.37 23.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.85 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 125. 167. 60. 89. 256. 373. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.930 0.903 0.889 0.874 0.862 0.855 0.854 0.838 0.825 0.829 PACF 0.930 0.288 0.191 0.089 0.076 0.089 0.118 -0.039 -0.001 0.126 95% C.L. 0.104 0.171 0.216 0.252 0.283 0.310 0.334 0.357 0.377 0.396 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.887 0.556 0.124 0.112 0.025 0.005 0.023 0.129 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01251417 0.06192672 2 670212 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00795724 1.67702055 4 670222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00541754 1.25860929 5 670231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01097395 1.06370020 6 670232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00768169 1.62631702 7 670241 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01185594 1.96376312 9 670252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00570255 1.60510063 10 670261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02383468 2.05245757 11 670262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01320815 1.95219433 12 670271 1 0.12046868 0.01066665 0.00000000 0.30357072 13 670272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010632 0.41821232 14 670281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077761 0.65934819 15 670282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017845 0.51500076 16 670291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00291165 0.15535736 17 670292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00173307 0.69360334 18 670301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047697 0.37084979 19 670311 1 0.35799950 0.00794494 0.00000000 0.13266334 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00183456 0.31847236 21 670322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00315411 0.19902907 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670211 1869 1982 114 1.044 0.419 1.486 5.781 0.190 0.602 2 670212 1856 1982 127 0.999 0.265 0.431 3.677 0.206 0.455 3 670221 1910 1982 73 1.000 0.263 -0.339 3.430 0.221 0.491 4 670222 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.206 -0.002 3.538 0.163 0.502 5 670231 1894 1982 89 0.993 0.333 0.162 2.368 0.177 0.758 6 670232 1905 1982 78 0.999 0.250 0.376 3.575 0.178 0.596 7 670241 1610 1982 373 0.984 0.374 0.362 3.160 0.248 0.676 8 670251 1887 1982 96 0.997 0.251 0.283 3.125 0.135 0.771 9 670252 1858 1982 125 0.996 0.292 0.345 2.816 0.185 0.668 10 670261 1923 1982 60 0.987 0.231 0.028 1.863 0.140 0.675 11 670262 1895 1982 88 0.991 0.283 0.182 2.134 0.159 0.720 12 670271 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.312 0.375 3.467 0.258 0.442 13 670272 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.488 0.935 3.506 0.212 0.834 14 670281 1720 1982 263 0.999 0.266 0.385 2.871 0.188 0.588 15 670282 1703 1982 280 1.000 0.319 0.687 3.170 0.181 0.729 16 670291 1813 1982 170 1.016 0.523 1.060 5.002 0.288 0.719 17 670292 1875 1982 108 0.999 0.357 0.686 3.487 0.206 0.724 18 670301 1711 1982 272 0.999 0.380 0.422 2.578 0.289 0.602 19 670311 1739 1965 227 1.001 0.292 0.029 3.038 0.245 0.517 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670321 1915 1982 68 0.999 0.267 0.687 2.928 0.169 0.619 21 670322 1830 1982 153 1.004 0.331 0.381 2.858 0.233 0.572 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 162 1.000 0.319 0.427 3.256 0.204 0.631 STANDARD DEVIATION 92 0.012 0.082 0.403 0.869 0.044 0.109 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 125 0.999 0.292 0.376 3.160 0.190 0.619 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 167 0.003 0.092 0.504 0.648 0.056 0.147 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.984 0.206 -0.339 1.863 0.135 0.442 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 89 0.997 0.265 0.182 2.858 0.177 0.572 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 256 1.000 0.357 0.686 3.506 0.233 0.720 MAXIMUM VALUE 373 1.044 0.523 1.486 5.781 0.289 0.834 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670211 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670212 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670221 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670222 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670231 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670232 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670241 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670251 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670252 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670261 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670262 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670271 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670272 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670281 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670282 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670291 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670292 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670301 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670311 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670321 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670322 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670211 1869 1982 114 0.986 0.236 -0.344 3.749 0.191 0.381 2 670212 1856 1982 127 0.996 0.227 0.146 3.351 0.206 0.318 3 670221 1910 1982 73 0.997 0.249 -0.183 3.584 0.219 0.436 4 670222 1893 1982 90 0.996 0.180 0.118 3.862 0.163 0.367 5 670231 1894 1982 89 0.997 0.234 -0.450 2.957 0.175 0.570 6 670232 1905 1982 78 0.997 0.186 -0.360 3.805 0.177 0.274 7 670241 1610 1982 373 0.996 0.368 0.472 3.336 0.248 0.663 8 670251 1887 1982 96 0.996 0.217 -0.215 3.258 0.134 0.707 9 670252 1858 1982 125 0.995 0.233 0.308 2.896 0.184 0.480 10 670261 1923 1982 60 0.997 0.170 0.082 2.336 0.138 0.409 11 670262 1895 1982 88 0.997 0.221 0.035 3.082 0.159 0.569 12 670271 1694 1982 289 0.997 0.297 0.316 3.379 0.258 0.382 13 670272 1727 1982 256 0.975 0.304 0.762 3.831 0.212 0.624 14 670281 1720 1982 263 0.999 0.236 0.444 3.075 0.188 0.493 15 670282 1703 1982 280 0.996 0.227 0.118 2.601 0.181 0.492 16 670291 1813 1982 170 0.979 0.450 1.153 5.848 0.288 0.670 17 670292 1875 1982 108 0.988 0.246 0.250 3.235 0.204 0.464 18 670301 1711 1982 272 0.996 0.343 0.234 2.403 0.289 0.521 19 670311 1739 1965 227 0.997 0.276 0.156 3.358 0.245 0.456 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670321 1915 1982 68 0.995 0.206 0.488 3.841 0.167 0.401 21 670322 1830 1982 153 0.992 0.290 0.310 2.477 0.233 0.477 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 162 0.994 0.257 0.183 3.346 0.203 0.483 STANDARD DEVIATION 92 0.006 0.067 0.380 0.748 0.044 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 125 0.996 0.236 0.156 3.336 0.191 0.477 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 167 0.002 0.069 0.281 0.792 0.058 0.168 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.975 0.170 -0.450 2.336 0.134 0.274 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 89 0.995 0.221 0.035 2.957 0.175 0.401 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 256 0.997 0.290 0.316 3.749 0.233 0.569 MAXIMUM VALUE 373 0.999 0.450 1.153 5.848 0.289 0.707 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.260 0.152 0.010 0.355 3.511 -0.114 0.801 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.114 SERIES 670212 AND 670271 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.801 SERIES 670251 AND 670252 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 29.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 10. 21. 21. 21. 28. 36. 66. 136. 171. RBAR 0.088 0.381 0.366 0.419 0.466 0.396 0.406 0.270 0.236 0.255 SDEV 0.000 0.235 0.309 0.161 0.176 0.192 0.140 0.203 0.234 0.209 SERR 0.000 0.074 0.067 0.035 0.038 0.036 0.023 0.025 0.020 0.016 EPS 0.302 0.800 0.802 0.837 0.874 0.860 0.889 0.853 0.858 0.877 NSS 4.5 6.5 7.0 7.1 7.9 9.3 11.7 15.7 19.5 20.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1610 1982 373 0.998 0.210 0.147 2.716 0.189 0.387 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.147 0.091 0.088 99 274 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 1.24 1.00 1.13 2.38 18.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.85 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.386 0.271 0.200 0.106 0.048 0.021 0.056 -0.024 -0.012 0.013 PACF 0.386 0.143 0.066 -0.020 -0.028 -0.012 0.058 -0.066 -0.001 0.026 95% C.L. 0.104 0.118 0.125 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.171 0.332 0.144 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.397 0.267 0.141 0.062 0.002 -0.042 0.003 -0.102 -0.124 -0.008 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.397 2 0.346 0.129 3 0.347 0.130 -0.003 4 0.346 0.133 0.006 -0.025 5 0.346 0.133 0.011 -0.012 -0.037 6 0.344 0.133 0.011 -0.007 -0.022 -0.042 7 0.346 0.134 0.012 -0.007 -0.028 -0.059 0.049 8 0.352 0.127 0.008 -0.008 -0.027 -0.043 0.089 -0.117 9 0.343 0.133 0.005 -0.010 -0.028 -0.043 0.098 -0.092 -0.071 10 0.351 0.143 -0.006 -0.005 -0.025 -0.042 0.098 -0.107 -0.109 0.110 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2611.68 2549.53 2545.28 2547.28 2549.05 2550.55 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2551.88 2553.00 2549.85 2549.97 2547.41 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.346 0.129 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 17.20 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 120.77 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.346 0.249 0.131 0.077 0.044 0.025 0.014 0.008 0.005 0.0027 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670211 2 0.154 0.366 0.052 2 670212 2 0.125 0.271 0.149 3 670221 2 0.228 0.527 -0.175 4 670222 2 0.150 0.399 -0.057 5 670231 2 0.392 0.749 -0.305 6 670232 2 0.104 0.236 0.143 7 670241 2 0.470 0.578 0.129 8 670251 2 0.523 0.669 0.055 9 670252 2 0.281 0.366 0.242 10 670261 2 0.185 0.460 -0.103 11 670262 2 0.358 0.556 0.030 12 670271 2 0.170 0.325 0.158 13 670272 2 0.481 0.405 0.354 14 670281 2 0.283 0.384 0.224 15 670282 2 0.293 0.373 0.249 16 670291 2 0.461 0.656 0.022 17 670292 2 0.234 0.425 0.086 18 670301 2 0.331 0.389 0.261 19 670311 2 0.256 0.343 0.248 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670321 2 0.187 0.338 0.165 21 670322 2 0.304 0.336 0.304 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.284 0.436 0.106 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.125 0.137 0.165 MEDIAN 2 0.281 0.389 0.143 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.173 0.184 0.212 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.104 0.236 -0.305 LOWER HINGE 2 0.185 0.343 0.030 UPPER HINGE 2 0.358 0.527 0.242 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.523 0.749 0.354 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670211 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.216 -0.839 6.641 0.220 -0.001 2 670212 1856 1982 127 1.000 0.213 0.221 3.390 0.234 -0.010 3 670221 1910 1982 73 1.000 0.219 -0.194 3.504 0.242 0.020 4 670222 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.166 0.114 3.351 0.195 0.013 5 670231 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.183 -0.103 3.111 0.207 -0.001 6 670232 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.177 -0.264 4.128 0.195 0.014 7 670241 1610 1982 373 1.000 0.273 0.604 4.912 0.310 -0.024 8 670251 1887 1982 96 1.000 0.153 0.545 3.621 0.169 0.010 9 670252 1858 1982 125 1.000 0.198 0.277 4.045 0.208 0.013 10 670261 1923 1982 60 1.000 0.154 0.145 2.880 0.172 0.003 11 670262 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.180 0.144 3.383 0.196 0.001 12 670271 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.270 0.135 3.622 0.293 0.001 13 670272 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.221 0.751 4.772 0.249 -0.054 14 670281 1720 1982 263 1.000 0.200 0.199 3.049 0.221 -0.005 15 670282 1703 1982 280 1.000 0.191 0.021 3.292 0.211 -0.008 16 670291 1813 1982 170 1.001 0.332 0.366 5.231 0.391 -0.003 17 670292 1875 1982 108 1.000 0.217 0.442 3.893 0.248 -0.011 18 670301 1711 1982 272 1.000 0.282 0.060 2.638 0.334 -0.021 19 670311 1739 1965 227 1.000 0.238 0.169 3.142 0.270 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670321 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.186 0.931 5.972 0.195 0.010 21 670322 1830 1982 153 1.000 0.241 0.105 3.076 0.274 -0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 162 1.000 0.215 0.182 3.888 0.240 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 92 0.000 0.046 0.376 1.053 0.056 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.213 0.145 3.504 0.221 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 167 0.000 0.055 0.306 0.986 0.075 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.153 -0.839 2.638 0.169 -0.054 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 89 1.000 0.183 0.060 3.142 0.196 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 256 1.000 0.238 0.366 4.128 0.270 0.010 MAXIMUM VALUE 373 1.001 0.332 0.931 6.641 0.391 0.020 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.305 0.149 0.010 -0.009 3.031 -0.068 0.753 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.068 SERIES 670231 AND 670292 89 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.753 SERIES 670251 AND 670252 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 29.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 10. 21. 21. 21. 28. 36. 66. 136. 171. RBAR 0.229 0.510 0.540 0.528 0.486 0.417 0.435 0.382 0.326 0.279 SDEV 0.000 0.120 0.145 0.098 0.157 0.167 0.155 0.185 0.181 0.161 SERR 0.000 0.038 0.032 0.021 0.034 0.032 0.026 0.023 0.016 0.012 EPS 0.573 0.871 0.891 0.889 0.882 0.870 0.900 0.907 0.904 0.890 NSS 4.5 6.5 7.0 7.1 7.9 9.3 11.7 15.7 19.5 20.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1610 1982 373 1.001 0.184 0.030 3.154 0.219 -0.083 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.103 0.052 0.077 100 273 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.51 1.50 1.00 1.14 2.63 26.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.83 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.082 -0.109 0.017 -0.033 -0.034 -0.040 0.060 -0.031 -0.022 0.042 PACF -0.082 -0.116 -0.002 -0.045 -0.040 -0.057 0.044 -0.035 -0.019 0.025 95% C.L. 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.020 -0.092 -0.117 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.006 -0.011 -0.054 -0.034 -0.047 0.049 -0.029 -0.017 0.029 PACF -0.001 -0.006 -0.011 -0.054 -0.034 -0.048 0.047 -0.033 -0.022 0.024 95% C.L. 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 -0.001 -0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1610 1982 373 1.002 0.198 0.146 2.834 0.178 0.380 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.379 0.233 0.093 0.001 -0.024 -0.041 0.011 -0.033 -0.031 -0.016 PACF 0.379 0.105 -0.030 -0.055 -0.014 -0.018 0.049 -0.049 -0.019 0.008 95% C.L. 0.104 0.117 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.154 0.340 0.105 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 14.96 MINUTES