RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO566W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO566W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Arapahoe CO, (EK ab 211) WIDTH_RING PCEN - 670 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3320 4003-10535 1610 1982 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 670241 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1887 1887 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 670281 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1918 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 670291 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1901 1906 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670211 1869 1982 114 0.943 0.535 0.312 1.745 0.142 0.956 2 670212 1856 1982 127 1.022 0.680 0.262 1.578 0.164 0.957 3 670221 1910 1982 73 1.615 0.471 0.195 3.221 0.211 0.580 4 670222 1893 1982 90 1.206 0.308 0.023 3.115 0.154 0.721 5 670231 1894 1982 89 1.871 0.590 -0.153 2.371 0.157 0.783 6 670232 1905 1982 78 2.335 0.517 0.275 3.521 0.159 0.623 7 670241 1610 1982 373 0.585 0.433 1.069 4.037 0.199 0.903 8 670251 1887 1982 96 1.629 0.618 0.243 2.562 0.116 0.916 9 670252 1858 1982 125 1.451 0.465 0.025 2.422 0.160 0.743 10 670261 1923 1982 60 1.534 0.611 -0.012 2.304 0.125 0.851 11 670262 1895 1982 88 1.575 0.588 0.069 2.395 0.144 0.841 12 670271 1694 1982 289 0.469 0.120 0.500 3.727 0.208 0.436 13 670272 1727 1982 256 0.531 0.238 0.958 3.513 0.178 0.852 14 670281 1720 1982 263 0.679 0.185 0.419 2.910 0.163 0.687 15 670282 1703 1982 280 0.603 0.197 0.869 3.537 0.160 0.786 16 670291 1813 1982 170 0.544 0.291 0.867 3.356 0.241 0.825 17 670292 1875 1982 108 0.971 0.340 0.791 3.508 0.184 0.764 18 670301 1711 1982 272 0.530 0.205 0.510 2.498 0.261 0.681 19 670311 1739 1965 227 0.390 0.132 0.371 2.948 0.172 0.795 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670321 1915 1982 68 0.439 0.113 0.993 3.452 0.149 0.708 21 670322 1830 1982 153 0.511 0.214 0.880 3.503 0.193 0.842 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1610 TO 1982 373 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 161 1.021 0.374 0.451 2.963 0.173 0.774 STANDARD DEVIATION 92 0.568 0.189 0.379 0.668 0.036 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 125 0.943 0.340 0.371 3.115 0.163 0.786 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 167 1.004 0.330 0.672 1.086 0.039 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.390 0.113 -0.153 1.578 0.116 0.436 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 89 0.531 0.205 0.195 2.422 0.154 0.708 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 256 1.534 0.535 0.867 3.508 0.193 0.851 MAXIMUM VALUE 372 2.335 0.680 1.069 4.037 0.261 0.957 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.196 0.353 0.024 -0.400 2.598 -0.700 0.944 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.700 SERIES 670211 AND 670272 114 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.944 SERIES 670211 AND 670212 114 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 29.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 10. 21. 21. 21. 28. 36. 66. 136. 171. RBAR 0.167 0.413 0.351 0.335 0.374 0.320 0.364 0.269 0.101 0.233 SDEV 0.000 0.222 0.312 0.277 0.166 0.254 0.162 0.255 0.404 0.280 SERR 0.000 0.070 0.068 0.060 0.036 0.048 0.027 0.031 0.035 0.021 EPS 0.474 0.820 0.791 0.783 0.826 0.814 0.869 0.853 0.686 0.864 NSS 4.5 6.5 7.0 7.1 7.9 9.3 11.7 15.7 19.5 20.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1610 1982 373 0.562 0.291 0.880 3.211 0.152 0.937 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.931 0.787 -0.173 92 281 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.53 1.55 1.01 1.17 2.72 596.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.85 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 125. 167. 60. 89. 256. 373. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.934 0.906 0.889 0.874 0.864 0.857 0.852 0.837 0.824 0.827 PACF 0.934 0.259 0.165 0.095 0.102 0.080 0.090 -0.031 -0.007 0.136 95% C.L. 0.104 0.172 0.217 0.253 0.284 0.310 0.335 0.357 0.378 0.397 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.891 0.603 0.110 0.083 0.019 0.037 0.026 0.096 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01402734 0.13676137 2 670212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01608238 -0.00722534 3 670221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01004659 1.98720312 4 670222 1 0.83521450 0.02525467 0.00000000 0.88009918 5 670231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00879316 1.47498214 6 670232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00526448 2.12705302 7 670241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00311611 0.00240501 8 670251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01722714 2.46437049 9 670252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00784541 1.94570065 10 670261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02876743 2.41174006 11 670262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01563339 2.27057219 12 670271 1 0.06870828 0.01661816 0.00000000 0.45457998 13 670272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013443 0.51327300 14 670281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00082292 0.78965515 15 670282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018220 0.62874192 16 670291 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00310169 0.26552790 17 670292 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00088914 0.92283833 18 670301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00065718 0.44003773 19 670311 1 0.36643064 0.00880552 0.00000000 0.23271115 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00157461 0.38449955 21 670322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00329500 0.25765738 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670211 1869 1982 114 1.023 0.331 0.949 3.592 0.140 0.741 2 670212 1856 1982 127 1.480 3.305 9.967100.891 0.174 0.299 3 670221 1910 1982 73 1.000 0.256 -0.255 3.255 0.208 0.514 4 670222 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.203 -0.204 3.192 0.152 0.560 5 670231 1894 1982 89 0.998 0.302 0.254 2.463 0.155 0.742 6 670232 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.216 0.308 3.515 0.157 0.584 7 670241 1610 1982 373 1.785 4.837 8.950 94.613 0.202 0.735 8 670251 1887 1982 96 1.000 0.251 0.259 3.171 0.114 0.835 9 670252 1858 1982 125 0.996 0.256 0.342 2.750 0.158 0.666 10 670261 1923 1982 60 0.989 0.214 -0.038 1.853 0.123 0.675 11 670262 1895 1982 88 0.992 0.268 0.164 2.143 0.142 0.746 12 670271 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.253 0.553 3.904 0.208 0.430 13 670272 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.444 0.898 3.414 0.178 0.845 14 670281 1720 1982 263 0.999 0.253 0.411 3.126 0.163 0.634 15 670282 1703 1982 280 1.000 0.327 0.909 3.638 0.160 0.783 16 670291 1813 1982 170 1.009 0.520 1.882 10.001 0.240 0.730 17 670292 1875 1982 108 1.000 0.346 0.712 3.353 0.183 0.750 18 670301 1711 1982 272 0.999 0.371 0.504 2.548 0.260 0.642 19 670311 1739 1965 227 1.000 0.259 -0.002 2.926 0.172 0.665 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670321 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.242 0.789 3.272 0.147 0.646 21 670322 1830 1982 153 1.004 0.294 0.263 2.663 0.192 0.626 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 162 1.061 0.655 1.315 12.394 0.173 0.659 STANDARD DEVIATION 92 0.196 1.164 2.753 28.440 0.036 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.268 0.411 3.255 0.163 0.666 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 167 0.001 0.093 0.643 0.842 0.040 0.116 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.989 0.203 -0.255 1.853 0.114 0.299 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 89 0.999 0.253 0.254 2.750 0.152 0.626 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 256 1.000 0.346 0.898 3.592 0.192 0.742 MAXIMUM VALUE 373 1.785 4.837 9.967100.891 0.260 0.845 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670211 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670212 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670221 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670222 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670231 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670232 -67 52 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670241 -67 249 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670251 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670252 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670261 -67 40 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670262 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670271 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670272 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670281 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670282 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670291 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670292 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670301 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670311 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670321 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670322 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670211 1869 1982 114 0.987 0.197 0.183 2.884 0.140 0.524 2 670212 1856 1982 127 1.046 0.513 3.783 30.228 0.173 0.487 3 670221 1910 1982 73 0.997 0.242 -0.099 3.385 0.206 0.468 4 670222 1893 1982 90 0.996 0.172 0.019 3.537 0.150 0.420 5 670231 1894 1982 89 0.997 0.223 -0.358 2.903 0.153 0.592 6 670232 1905 1982 78 0.998 0.168 -0.252 3.618 0.156 0.326 7 670241 1610 1982 373 1.323 0.898 1.242 4.662 0.202 0.875 8 670251 1887 1982 96 0.995 0.213 -0.198 3.298 0.113 0.777 9 670252 1858 1982 125 0.996 0.216 0.259 2.687 0.157 0.535 10 670261 1923 1982 60 0.997 0.165 0.029 2.404 0.123 0.451 11 670262 1895 1982 88 0.997 0.209 -0.076 2.864 0.142 0.607 12 670271 1694 1982 289 0.999 0.245 0.516 3.795 0.208 0.385 13 670272 1727 1982 256 0.978 0.269 0.804 3.884 0.177 0.646 14 670281 1720 1982 263 0.999 0.222 0.453 3.062 0.163 0.544 15 670282 1703 1982 280 0.995 0.225 0.415 2.893 0.160 0.585 16 670291 1813 1982 170 0.981 0.452 2.208 12.999 0.239 0.685 17 670292 1875 1982 108 0.989 0.253 0.379 2.848 0.180 0.585 18 670301 1711 1982 272 0.996 0.329 0.310 2.418 0.261 0.562 19 670311 1739 1965 227 0.997 0.237 0.201 3.451 0.172 0.591 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670321 1915 1982 68 0.996 0.189 0.568 3.961 0.145 0.461 21 670322 1830 1982 153 0.994 0.257 0.257 2.461 0.192 0.528 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 162 1.012 0.281 0.507 4.964 0.172 0.554 STANDARD DEVIATION 92 0.072 0.166 0.939 6.196 0.036 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 125 0.996 0.225 0.259 3.298 0.163 0.544 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 167 0.003 0.048 0.497 0.931 0.041 0.124 MINIMUM VALUE 60 0.978 0.165 -0.358 2.404 0.113 0.326 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 89 0.995 0.209 0.019 2.864 0.150 0.468 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 256 0.997 0.257 0.516 3.795 0.192 0.592 MAXIMUM VALUE 373 1.323 0.898 3.783 30.228 0.261 0.875 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.245 0.158 0.011 0.370 3.566 -0.191 0.812 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.191 SERIES 670241 AND 670282 280 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.812 SERIES 670251 AND 670252 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 29.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 10. 21. 21. 21. 28. 36. 66. 136. 171. RBAR -0.024 0.231 0.406 0.436 0.413 0.346 0.409 0.251 0.211 0.250 SDEV 0.000 0.366 0.211 0.165 0.207 0.213 0.153 0.208 0.241 0.222 SERR 0.000 0.116 0.046 0.036 0.045 0.040 0.025 0.026 0.021 0.017 EPS -0.117 0.661 0.827 0.846 0.848 0.832 0.890 0.840 0.840 0.874 NSS 4.5 6.5 7.0 7.1 7.9 9.3 11.7 15.7 19.5 20.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1610 1982 373 0.921 0.440 3.370 30.301 0.202 0.692 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.376 0.107 0.073 143 230 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.68 14.39 1.00 1.28 15.66 220.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.690 0.552 0.499 0.437 0.344 0.305 0.289 0.233 0.218 0.211 PACF 0.690 0.144 0.143 0.042 -0.051 0.035 0.049 -0.037 0.046 0.024 95% C.L. 0.104 0.145 0.166 0.181 0.192 0.199 0.204 0.208 0.211 0.213 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.640 0.636 0.107 0.102 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.513 0.379 0.276 0.191 0.162 0.122 0.127 0.041 0.030 0.101 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.513 2 0.433 0.157 3 0.426 0.138 0.044 4 0.426 0.138 0.044 -0.001 5 0.426 0.137 0.039 -0.016 0.036 6 0.426 0.137 0.039 -0.017 0.034 0.006 7 0.425 0.135 0.040 -0.019 0.027 -0.014 0.048 8 0.429 0.134 0.042 -0.021 0.030 -0.003 0.083 -0.082 9 0.429 0.134 0.042 -0.021 0.030 -0.003 0.083 -0.081 -0.001 10 0.429 0.144 0.032 -0.020 0.027 -0.001 0.078 -0.097 -0.052 0.118 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2653.79 2541.81 2534.50 2535.78 2537.78 2539.30 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2541.28 2542.43 2541.93 2543.92 2540.67 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.433 0.157 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 28.15 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 139.17 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.433 0.344 0.217 0.148 0.098 0.066 0.044 0.029 0.020 0.0130 0.009 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670211 2 0.277 0.518 0.015 2 670212 2 0.411 0.636 0.003 3 670221 2 0.265 0.566 -0.181 4 670222 2 0.201 0.465 -0.079 5 670231 2 0.397 0.748 -0.256 6 670232 2 0.117 0.296 0.096 7 670241 2 0.836 0.700 0.227 8 670251 2 0.617 0.814 -0.044 9 670252 2 0.304 0.467 0.133 10 670261 2 0.225 0.512 -0.112 11 670262 2 0.404 0.630 -0.030 12 670271 2 0.178 0.319 0.178 13 670272 2 0.494 0.443 0.318 14 670281 2 0.332 0.425 0.221 15 670282 2 0.386 0.448 0.241 16 670291 2 0.500 0.768 -0.104 17 670292 2 0.347 0.593 -0.010 18 670301 2 0.373 0.417 0.264 19 670311 2 0.377 0.479 0.189 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670321 2 0.223 0.432 0.075 21 670322 2 0.324 0.409 0.234 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.361 0.528 0.066 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.160 0.144 0.162 MEDIAN 2 0.347 0.479 0.075 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.140 0.199 0.265 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.117 0.296 -0.256 LOWER HINGE 2 0.265 0.432 -0.044 UPPER HINGE 2 0.404 0.630 0.221 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.836 0.814 0.318 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670211 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.167 -0.192 4.704 0.171 -0.001 2 670212 1856 1982 127 1.009 0.311 3.500 28.991 0.232 -0.061 3 670221 1910 1982 73 1.000 0.209 0.045 3.213 0.225 0.029 4 670222 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.155 0.017 3.295 0.180 0.018 5 670231 1894 1982 89 1.000 0.173 0.026 3.355 0.197 0.005 6 670232 1905 1982 78 1.000 0.158 -0.178 4.030 0.178 0.004 7 670241 1610 1982 373 1.003 0.352 0.559 5.457 0.373 -0.102 8 670251 1887 1982 96 1.000 0.133 0.235 2.897 0.153 -0.009 9 670252 1858 1982 125 1.000 0.180 -0.022 4.563 0.192 0.001 10 670261 1923 1982 60 1.000 0.145 -0.094 3.622 0.153 0.000 11 670262 1895 1982 88 1.000 0.165 0.092 3.453 0.175 -0.012 12 670271 1694 1982 289 1.000 0.222 0.293 4.154 0.237 0.007 13 670272 1727 1982 256 1.000 0.193 0.954 5.630 0.215 -0.057 14 670281 1720 1982 263 1.000 0.181 0.287 3.233 0.196 0.003 15 670282 1703 1982 280 1.000 0.176 0.349 3.855 0.193 -0.002 16 670291 1813 1982 170 1.000 0.320 1.525 11.622 0.332 0.004 17 670292 1875 1982 108 1.000 0.204 0.663 3.851 0.227 -0.002 18 670301 1711 1982 272 1.000 0.262 0.242 2.733 0.302 -0.020 19 670311 1739 1965 227 1.000 0.188 0.255 3.705 0.203 0.015 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670321 1915 1982 68 1.000 0.167 0.744 5.021 0.180 0.006 21 670322 1830 1982 153 1.000 0.212 0.162 3.404 0.231 0.009 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 162 1.001 0.204 0.451 5.466 0.217 -0.008 STANDARD DEVIATION 92 0.002 0.060 0.810 5.701 0.057 0.030 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.181 0.242 3.851 0.197 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 167 0.000 0.045 0.533 1.349 0.052 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 60 1.000 0.133 -0.192 2.733 0.153 -0.102 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 89 1.000 0.167 0.026 3.355 0.180 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 256 1.000 0.212 0.559 4.704 0.231 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 373 1.009 0.352 3.500 28.991 0.373 0.029 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.307 0.141 0.010 0.134 2.857 -0.032 0.714 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.032 SERIES 670231 AND 670292 89 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.714 SERIES 670251 AND 670252 96 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 29.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 10. 21. 21. 21. 28. 36. 66. 136. 171. RBAR 0.178 0.496 0.605 0.575 0.460 0.387 0.446 0.372 0.308 0.284 SDEV 0.000 0.137 0.100 0.084 0.165 0.168 0.150 0.171 0.179 0.162 SERR 0.000 0.043 0.022 0.018 0.036 0.032 0.025 0.021 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.494 0.864 0.915 0.906 0.871 0.855 0.904 0.903 0.897 0.892 NSS 4.5 6.5 7.0 7.1 7.9 9.3 11.7 15.7 19.5 20.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1610 1982 373 0.980 0.175 -0.022 5.668 0.188 -0.054 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.287 0.143 -0.021 104 269 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.56 2.93 1.00 1.15 4.08 142.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.85 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.91 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.054 -0.064 0.065 0.029 -0.019 -0.007 0.092 -0.028 -0.018 0.057 PACF -0.054 -0.067 0.059 0.032 -0.008 -0.008 0.087 -0.019 -0.009 0.043 95% C.L. 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.106 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.006 0.006 0.059 0.028 -0.007 -0.002 0.089 -0.020 -0.011 0.053 PACF 0.006 0.006 0.059 0.028 -0.008 -0.005 0.087 -0.021 -0.011 0.044 95% C.L. 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.105 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.004 0.006 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1610 1982 373 0.982 0.210 -0.127 4.808 0.153 0.534 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.532 0.411 0.312 0.228 0.158 0.126 0.141 0.078 0.073 0.093 PACF 0.532 0.178 0.055 0.003 -0.016 0.016 0.071 -0.047 0.010 0.052 95% C.L. 0.104 0.130 0.143 0.150 0.154 0.155 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.159 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.316 0.460 0.158 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES