RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO567E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO567E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Eldora CO, (EK ab 411) WIDTH_EARLY PIPO - 670 2 United States of America ponderosa pine, western yellow pine 2650 39 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 670421 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 670452 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1933 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 670461 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 670471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 670472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1878 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 670482 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1842 1842 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 670491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 0.393 0.175 1.156 5.068 0.314 0.653 2 670412 1808 1982 175 0.471 0.194 0.311 2.404 0.333 0.588 3 670421 1756 1982 227 0.279 0.226 2.912 13.134 0.342 0.753 4 670422 1716 1982 267 0.415 0.271 1.642 5.687 0.273 0.859 5 670431 1883 1982 100 0.713 0.394 0.851 3.164 0.320 0.717 6 670432 1869 1982 114 0.407 0.165 1.176 5.651 0.323 0.492 7 670441 1796 1982 187 0.428 0.196 0.614 3.008 0.353 0.585 8 670442 1802 1982 181 0.571 0.356 0.272 1.904 0.341 0.829 9 670451 1865 1982 118 0.784 0.394 0.627 2.780 0.259 0.805 10 670452 1870 1982 113 0.663 0.439 1.363 4.973 0.271 0.845 11 670461 1794 1982 189 0.351 0.096 -0.054 3.766 0.245 0.448 12 670462 1799 1982 184 0.377 0.108 0.101 2.952 0.242 0.506 13 670471 1802 1982 181 0.392 0.201 1.418 4.973 0.318 0.708 14 670472 1809 1982 174 0.317 0.139 0.602 3.135 0.317 0.630 15 670481 1824 1982 159 0.472 0.243 1.368 4.481 0.261 0.804 16 670482 1803 1982 180 0.353 0.179 0.979 3.506 0.269 0.819 17 670491 1816 1982 167 0.293 0.151 1.048 3.612 0.368 0.610 18 670511 1756 1982 227 0.279 0.125 0.303 2.767 0.329 0.683 19 670512 1893 1982 90 0.386 0.173 0.925 3.051 0.274 0.732 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 0.629 0.206 0.458 3.156 0.232 0.614 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.743 0.326 0.475 2.316 0.241 0.800 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1716 TO 1982 267 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 0.463 0.226 0.883 4.071 0.296 0.690 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.157 0.100 0.661 2.351 0.042 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 0.407 0.196 0.851 3.164 0.314 0.708 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.218 0.106 0.718 2.021 0.068 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.279 0.096 -0.054 1.904 0.232 0.448 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.353 0.165 0.458 2.952 0.261 0.610 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 0.571 0.271 1.176 4.973 0.329 0.804 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 0.784 0.439 2.912 13.134 0.368 0.859 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.474 0.204 0.014 -0.593 3.425 -0.141 0.907 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.141 SERIES 670451 AND 670511 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.907 SERIES 670451 AND 670452 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.488 0.445 0.523 0.348 0.252 0.354 0.365 SDEV 0.055 0.150 0.141 0.214 0.281 0.230 0.202 SERR 0.032 0.048 0.014 0.020 0.021 0.016 0.014 EPS 0.875 0.915 0.946 0.905 0.872 0.920 0.924 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.503 0.232 1.663 6.854 0.212 0.816 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.178 -0.090 0.216 80 187 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.70 1.00 1.08 1.77 4.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.22 0.00 0.77 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 178. 28. 90. 159. 187. 267. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.813 0.744 0.698 0.676 0.688 0.660 0.610 0.597 0.606 0.594 PACF 0.813 0.244 0.131 0.131 0.194 0.022 -0.060 0.063 0.120 0.003 95% C.L. 0.122 0.187 0.227 0.257 0.282 0.306 0.327 0.344 0.359 0.374 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.719 0.512 0.115 0.027 0.038 0.233 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670411 1 0.51790100 0.01368841 0.00000000 0.22191054 2 670412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00241155 0.68273103 3 670421 1 0.90665758 0.03879524 0.00000000 0.17761227 4 670422 1 0.93884116 0.01641395 0.00000000 0.20541377 5 670431 1 1.30285370 0.02945639 0.00000000 0.30010498 6 670432 1 0.40867612 0.04000007 0.00000000 0.32027274 7 670441 1 0.36154109 0.02922939 0.00000000 0.36333016 8 670442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00479287 1.00725603 9 670451 1 1.36218011 0.01668700 0.00000000 0.19407322 10 670452 1 1.48436594 0.02362014 0.00000000 0.14878429 11 670461 1 0.22462328 0.01395035 0.00000000 0.27339822 12 670462 1 0.21731086 0.05140476 0.00000000 0.35473195 13 670471 1 0.72453880 0.03490327 0.00000000 0.27858716 14 670472 1 0.36444789 0.01662600 0.00000000 0.19874066 15 670481 1 0.68562555 0.06557405 0.00000000 0.40845045 16 670482 1 0.46567389 0.05297831 0.00000000 0.30452487 17 670491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00072452 0.35416752 18 670511 1 0.20897007 0.04736723 0.00000000 0.26049402 19 670512 1 0.65485978 0.01435918 0.00000000 0.02063531 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00254225 0.83967334 21 670522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00454242 1.14929914 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 1.000 0.295 0.606 3.695 0.312 0.136 2 670412 1808 1982 175 1.001 0.326 0.022 2.831 0.331 0.328 3 670421 1756 1982 227 0.999 0.371 0.545 3.551 0.339 0.353 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.001 0.306 0.406 3.004 0.272 0.359 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.001 0.335 -0.018 2.730 0.315 0.344 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.316 0.278 3.339 0.320 0.276 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.420 0.646 3.652 0.351 0.518 8 670442 1802 1982 181 0.982 0.471 0.831 3.642 0.339 0.710 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.004 0.319 0.077 3.267 0.258 0.533 10 670452 1870 1982 113 1.007 0.362 0.360 3.362 0.276 0.578 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.231 -0.638 3.981 0.245 0.183 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.268 0.046 2.976 0.241 0.430 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.305 0.257 3.497 0.313 0.213 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.340 0.200 2.738 0.320 0.338 15 670481 1824 1982 159 1.000 0.422 0.973 4.179 0.259 0.702 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.481 1.585 6.281 0.270 0.764 17 670491 1816 1982 167 0.997 0.499 1.149 3.955 0.363 0.607 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.437 0.387 3.262 0.328 0.650 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.001 0.256 0.027 2.982 0.271 0.129 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 0.998 0.257 0.338 3.652 0.231 0.365 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.994 0.289 0.724 4.138 0.240 0.496 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 0.999 0.348 0.419 3.558 0.295 0.429 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.005 0.079 0.477 0.763 0.041 0.192 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.326 0.360 3.497 0.312 0.365 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.001 0.125 0.569 0.691 0.069 0.250 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.982 0.231 -0.638 2.730 0.231 0.129 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.295 0.077 3.004 0.259 0.328 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.001 0.420 0.646 3.695 0.328 0.578 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.007 0.499 1.585 6.281 0.363 0.764 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670411 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670412 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670421 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670422 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670431 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670432 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670441 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670442 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670451 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670452 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670461 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670462 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670471 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670472 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670481 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670482 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670491 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670511 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670512 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670521 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670522 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 0.999 0.290 0.565 3.564 0.312 0.106 2 670412 1808 1982 175 0.993 0.293 -0.149 3.021 0.331 0.144 3 670421 1756 1982 227 0.998 0.362 0.460 3.326 0.339 0.333 4 670422 1716 1982 267 0.998 0.290 0.342 2.986 0.272 0.295 5 670431 1883 1982 100 0.996 0.316 0.178 3.029 0.315 0.236 6 670432 1869 1982 114 0.997 0.301 0.148 3.310 0.319 0.218 7 670441 1796 1982 187 0.995 0.391 0.475 3.595 0.351 0.456 8 670442 1802 1982 181 0.976 0.383 0.452 3.112 0.339 0.532 9 670451 1865 1982 118 0.991 0.254 -0.222 3.622 0.258 0.281 10 670452 1870 1982 113 0.992 0.311 0.223 3.163 0.274 0.449 11 670461 1794 1982 189 0.999 0.227 -0.527 4.409 0.245 0.131 12 670462 1799 1982 184 0.998 0.241 -0.235 3.256 0.241 0.303 13 670471 1802 1982 181 0.998 0.280 -0.046 3.262 0.313 0.108 14 670472 1809 1982 174 0.996 0.309 0.044 2.806 0.319 0.228 15 670481 1824 1982 159 0.993 0.340 0.362 3.317 0.260 0.576 16 670482 1803 1982 180 0.992 0.413 1.223 5.120 0.270 0.701 17 670491 1816 1982 167 0.988 0.358 0.342 2.802 0.364 0.228 18 670511 1756 1982 227 0.990 0.402 0.373 3.187 0.328 0.589 19 670512 1893 1982 90 0.999 0.247 0.059 3.369 0.271 0.044 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 0.998 0.234 -0.032 3.423 0.231 0.228 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.997 0.256 0.133 3.201 0.240 0.351 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 0.994 0.309 0.199 3.375 0.295 0.311 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.005 0.058 0.365 0.526 0.041 0.179 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 0.996 0.301 0.178 3.262 0.312 0.281 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.006 0.102 0.405 0.310 0.068 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.976 0.227 -0.527 2.802 0.231 0.044 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.992 0.256 -0.032 3.112 0.260 0.218 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 0.998 0.358 0.373 3.423 0.328 0.449 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 0.999 0.413 1.223 5.120 0.364 0.701 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.346 0.121 0.008 0.084 3.002 0.029 0.713 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.029 SERIES 670431 AND 670472 100 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.713 SERIES 670451 AND 670452 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.302 0.408 0.473 0.399 0.255 0.285 0.394 SDEV 0.098 0.124 0.141 0.191 0.193 0.192 0.164 SERR 0.056 0.039 0.014 0.017 0.015 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.761 0.902 0.935 0.922 0.874 0.893 0.932 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.986 0.209 -0.277 3.330 0.209 0.288 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.112 0.061 0.140 67 200 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.44 1.01 1.07 1.51 12.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.16 0.00 0.81 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.287 0.230 0.209 0.099 0.102 0.129 -0.049 0.007 0.072 0.029 PACF 0.287 0.161 0.121 -0.014 0.031 0.073 -0.136 0.001 0.083 0.019 95% C.L. 0.122 0.132 0.138 0.143 0.144 0.145 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.147 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.121 0.221 0.134 0.122 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.177 0.244 0.278 0.120 0.129 0.242 -0.031 0.022 0.063 -0.057 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.177 2 0.138 0.220 3 0.089 0.189 0.223 4 0.086 0.187 0.222 0.011 5 0.086 0.185 0.220 0.010 0.012 6 0.084 0.183 0.184 -0.020 -0.002 0.163 7 0.107 0.183 0.181 0.006 0.023 0.175 -0.140 8 0.096 0.197 0.183 0.006 0.038 0.190 -0.132 -0.081 9 0.097 0.198 0.181 0.006 0.038 0.188 -0.134 -0.082 0.013 10 0.097 0.195 0.175 0.014 0.039 0.188 -0.127 -0.074 0.017 -0.042 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2083.44 2076.97 2065.73 2054.09 2056.06 2058.02 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2052.80 2049.49 2049.72 2051.67 2053.20 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.089 0.189 0.223 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.40 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 114.16 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.089 0.197 0.257 0.080 0.100 0.081 0.044 0.042 0.030 0.0203 0.017 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.0011 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670411 3 0.055 0.075 0.104 0.154 2 670412 3 0.123 0.074 0.262 0.114 3 670421 3 0.154 0.256 0.160 0.097 4 670422 3 0.107 0.251 0.131 0.035 5 670431 3 0.151 0.157 0.143 0.199 6 670432 3 0.068 0.188 0.095 0.065 7 670441 3 0.281 0.328 0.099 0.237 8 670442 3 0.386 0.353 0.085 0.308 9 670451 3 0.097 0.243 0.103 0.061 10 670452 3 0.219 0.438 0.048 -0.044 11 670461 3 0.024 0.125 0.042 0.022 12 670462 3 0.136 0.233 0.181 0.058 13 670471 3 0.065 0.100 0.002 0.230 14 670472 3 0.131 0.145 0.148 0.216 15 670481 3 0.393 0.400 0.223 0.099 16 670482 3 0.542 0.500 0.101 0.217 17 670491 3 0.172 0.112 0.191 0.266 18 670511 3 0.431 0.359 0.234 0.172 19 670512 3 0.068 0.060 0.233 -0.109 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670521 3 0.180 0.098 0.257 0.219 21 670522 3 0.211 0.214 0.216 0.174 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.190 0.224 0.146 0.133 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.140 0.130 0.075 0.107 MEDIAN 3 0.151 0.214 0.143 0.154 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.122 0.216 0.118 0.157 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.024 0.060 0.002 -0.109 LOWER HINGE 3 0.097 0.112 0.099 0.061 UPPER HINGE 3 0.219 0.328 0.216 0.217 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.542 0.500 0.262 0.308 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 1.000 0.283 0.560 3.625 0.320 -0.014 2 670412 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.277 -0.105 2.989 0.328 -0.016 3 670421 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.334 0.306 3.667 0.377 0.005 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.000 0.273 0.225 2.977 0.304 -0.001 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.296 0.313 2.979 0.334 0.035 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.291 0.168 3.144 0.342 0.004 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.332 0.639 3.897 0.372 0.007 8 670442 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.301 0.220 3.541 0.354 -0.023 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.000 0.241 -0.587 4.229 0.293 -0.001 10 670452 1870 1982 113 1.000 0.278 0.410 3.777 0.328 -0.006 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.224 -0.556 4.460 0.258 0.002 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.225 -0.034 2.952 0.263 -0.005 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.270 -0.114 3.497 0.324 -0.005 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.289 -0.295 3.350 0.356 -0.012 15 670481 1824 1982 159 1.000 0.265 0.008 3.644 0.298 0.005 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.280 0.273 3.794 0.311 0.016 17 670491 1816 1982 167 1.000 0.326 0.283 2.992 0.364 -0.015 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.303 0.311 4.356 0.348 -0.013 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.238 0.021 3.133 0.272 -0.009 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.213 -0.341 3.661 0.236 -0.017 21 670522 1805 1982 178 1.000 0.228 -0.249 3.735 0.263 -0.012 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.275 0.069 3.543 0.317 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.036 0.339 0.462 0.041 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.278 0.168 3.625 0.324 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.055 0.420 0.644 0.055 0.017 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.213 -0.587 2.952 0.236 -0.023 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.241 -0.114 3.133 0.293 -0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.296 0.306 3.777 0.348 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.000 0.334 0.639 4.460 0.377 0.035 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.384 0.096 0.007 0.140 4.205 0.033 0.677 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.033 SERIES 670431 AND 670472 100 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.677 SERIES 670451 AND 670452 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.249 0.418 0.471 0.443 0.359 0.309 0.404 SDEV 0.065 0.133 0.128 0.123 0.130 0.146 0.142 SERR 0.038 0.042 0.012 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.708 0.906 0.935 0.934 0.919 0.904 0.934 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.993 0.190 -0.310 3.365 0.223 -0.022 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.049 0.026 0.144 53 214 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.37 1.00 1.06 1.42 6.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.15 0.00 0.82 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.022 -0.018 -0.023 -0.053 0.021 0.081 -0.142 -0.032 0.086 0.080 PACF -0.022 -0.019 -0.024 -0.054 0.018 0.080 -0.141 -0.037 0.089 0.086 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.126 0.126 0.127 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.000 0.001 -0.055 0.018 0.079 -0.138 -0.030 0.086 0.074 PACF -0.001 0.000 0.001 -0.055 0.017 0.079 -0.139 -0.033 0.092 0.084 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.126 0.126 0.127 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.992 0.202 -0.335 3.414 0.217 0.155 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.155 0.224 0.278 0.040 0.097 0.142 -0.073 0.001 0.072 0.009 PACF 0.155 0.205 0.234 -0.064 -0.003 0.084 -0.117 -0.050 0.075 0.064 95% C.L. 0.122 0.125 0.131 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.144 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.123 0.074 0.179 0.237 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.21 MINUTES