RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO567L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO567L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Eldora CO, (EK ab 411) WIDTH_LATE PIPO - 670 2 United States of America ponderosa pine, western yellow pine 2650 39 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 670421 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 3 GAPS / 1908 1912 / 1925 1929 / 1941 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 670422 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1870 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 670452 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1933 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 670461 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 670462 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 670471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 670472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1878 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 670482 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1842 1842 / 1852 1856 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 670491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 0.100 0.030 0.798 3.898 0.290 0.185 2 670412 1808 1982 175 0.171 0.102 1.595 6.615 0.341 0.582 3 670421 1756 1982 227 0.079 0.059 2.473 9.777 0.285 0.654 4 670422 1716 1982 267 0.082 0.056 2.622 10.842 0.332 0.678 5 670431 1883 1982 100 0.145 0.062 1.657 6.926 0.317 0.385 6 670432 1869 1982 114 0.104 0.033 1.322 6.545 0.278 0.352 7 670441 1796 1982 187 0.098 0.037 1.763 7.696 0.274 0.425 8 670442 1802 1982 181 0.128 0.074 1.295 4.219 0.317 0.682 9 670451 1865 1982 118 0.208 0.132 1.184 3.582 0.301 0.756 10 670452 1870 1982 113 0.216 0.166 1.282 3.797 0.270 0.845 11 670461 1794 1982 189 0.076 0.019 0.467 4.582 0.212 0.394 12 670462 1799 1982 184 0.079 0.020 0.105 3.624 0.220 0.417 13 670471 1802 1982 181 0.108 0.066 2.094 7.421 0.239 0.777 14 670472 1809 1982 174 0.090 0.033 1.281 4.316 0.200 0.698 15 670481 1824 1982 159 0.131 0.059 1.090 3.974 0.241 0.689 16 670482 1803 1982 180 0.100 0.062 4.064 25.822 0.245 0.751 17 670491 1816 1982 167 0.081 0.031 2.050 13.047 0.266 0.556 18 670511 1756 1982 227 0.076 0.023 1.083 4.535 0.238 0.444 19 670512 1893 1982 90 0.080 0.054 2.055 7.778 0.360 0.778 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 0.119 0.037 0.703 3.746 0.273 0.354 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.205 0.124 1.669 5.390 0.308 0.744 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1716 TO 1982 267 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 0.118 0.061 1.555 7.054 0.277 0.578 STANDARD DEVIATION 42 0.046 0.040 0.853 5.035 0.044 0.186 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 175 0.100 0.056 1.322 5.390 0.274 0.654 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.050 0.033 0.959 3.723 0.067 0.327 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.076 0.019 0.105 3.582 0.200 0.185 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.081 0.033 1.090 3.974 0.241 0.417 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 0.131 0.066 2.050 7.696 0.308 0.744 MAXIMUM VALUE 262 0.216 0.166 4.064 25.822 0.360 0.845 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.310 0.218 0.015 0.014 2.811 -0.259 0.845 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.259 SERIES 670451 AND 670511 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.845 SERIES 670451 AND 670452 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.322 0.270 0.394 0.335 0.184 0.249 0.255 SDEV 0.097 0.201 0.205 0.166 0.239 0.221 0.246 SERR 0.056 0.064 0.020 0.015 0.018 0.015 0.017 EPS 0.777 0.832 0.913 0.900 0.820 0.875 0.878 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.109 0.047 2.829 12.783 0.209 0.583 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.041 -0.023 0.040 109 158 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.11 2.77 1.00 1.29 4.06 58.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 178. 28. 90. 159. 187. 267. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.581 0.646 0.491 0.547 0.504 0.475 0.395 0.365 0.318 0.343 PACF 0.581 0.465 0.037 0.170 0.143 0.004 -0.082 -0.033 -0.033 0.066 95% C.L. 0.122 0.158 0.194 0.212 0.232 0.248 0.261 0.270 0.277 0.283 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.582 0.148 0.345 -0.050 0.180 0.277 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670411 1 0.05806258 0.00546393 0.00000000 0.06486226 2 670412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00113757 0.27067783 3 670421 1 0.18406534 0.02629149 0.00000000 0.04679310 4 670422 1 0.23495856 0.03679013 0.00000000 0.05822638 5 670431 1 0.13799930 0.01869051 0.00000000 0.08324035 6 670432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042895 0.12843658 7 670441 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024497 0.12072796 8 670442 1 0.22635242 0.00962618 0.00000000 0.02103750 9 670451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00309894 0.39226857 10 670452 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670461 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018043 0.09345192 12 670462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000083 0.07939574 13 670471 1 0.21569368 0.02731523 0.00000000 0.06550246 14 670472 1 0.10686699 0.03805367 0.00000000 0.07401711 15 670481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039617 0.16307698 16 670482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009112 0.10641164 17 670491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000121 0.08110937 18 670511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008494 0.06639663 19 670512 1 0.17387266 0.04074600 0.00000000 0.03428914 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030999 0.14482039 21 670522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00079884 0.27683300 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 1.000 0.279 0.591 3.377 0.289 0.082 2 670412 1808 1982 175 0.993 0.450 1.982 10.190 0.340 0.386 3 670421 1756 1982 227 1.002 0.391 1.080 4.155 0.282 0.443 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.000 0.343 0.735 4.052 0.328 0.199 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.336 0.894 4.045 0.315 0.240 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.281 0.883 4.012 0.276 0.190 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.348 1.935 9.802 0.272 0.330 8 670442 1802 1982 181 1.001 0.387 1.354 5.817 0.315 0.365 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.131 0.685 2.498 9.887 0.303 0.680 10 670452 1870 1982 113 0.999 0.290 0.685 3.115 0.269 0.281 11 670461 1794 1982 189 0.999 0.218 0.246 4.188 0.211 0.185 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.251 0.126 3.598 0.218 0.409 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.002 0.286 0.310 3.074 0.235 0.410 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.244 0.602 4.005 0.201 0.421 15 670481 1824 1982 159 0.998 0.421 1.130 4.160 0.240 0.652 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.625 4.083 26.051 0.240 0.745 17 670491 1816 1982 167 1.000 0.375 2.059 13.092 0.265 0.545 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.293 0.912 3.917 0.237 0.403 19 670512 1893 1982 90 0.999 0.325 0.174 2.524 0.357 0.160 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 0.999 0.283 0.756 3.910 0.271 0.237 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.990 0.563 1.942 6.297 0.307 0.711 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.005 0.365 1.189 6.346 0.275 0.385 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.029 0.125 0.950 5.353 0.043 0.192 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.336 0.894 4.052 0.272 0.386 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.001 0.108 1.333 2.387 0.067 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.990 0.218 0.126 2.524 0.201 0.082 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.999 0.283 0.602 3.910 0.240 0.237 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.391 1.935 6.297 0.307 0.443 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.131 0.685 4.083 26.051 0.357 0.745 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670411 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670412 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670421 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670422 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670431 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670432 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670441 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670442 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670451 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670452 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670461 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670462 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670471 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670472 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670481 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670482 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670491 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670511 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670512 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670521 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670522 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 0.998 0.268 0.548 3.461 0.289 0.021 2 670412 1808 1982 175 0.990 0.383 1.385 6.872 0.340 0.251 3 670421 1756 1982 227 0.995 0.364 1.394 5.409 0.283 0.354 4 670422 1716 1982 267 0.997 0.325 0.663 4.254 0.328 0.108 5 670431 1883 1982 100 0.998 0.328 0.871 3.997 0.314 0.213 6 670432 1869 1982 114 0.999 0.275 0.910 4.002 0.276 0.162 7 670441 1796 1982 187 0.998 0.340 1.881 9.409 0.273 0.311 8 670442 1802 1982 181 0.995 0.366 1.365 5.888 0.315 0.313 9 670451 1865 1982 118 0.991 0.288 0.483 2.852 0.299 0.106 10 670452 1870 1982 113 0.999 0.286 0.684 3.141 0.269 0.261 11 670461 1794 1982 189 0.999 0.212 0.320 4.755 0.211 0.128 12 670462 1799 1982 184 0.997 0.217 -0.133 3.555 0.218 0.195 13 670471 1802 1982 181 0.997 0.271 0.535 3.648 0.235 0.347 14 670472 1809 1982 174 0.998 0.222 0.723 4.601 0.202 0.288 15 670481 1824 1982 159 0.987 0.326 0.859 3.482 0.241 0.489 16 670482 1803 1982 180 0.983 0.499 3.408 20.981 0.241 0.690 17 670491 1816 1982 167 0.991 0.321 1.882 12.950 0.266 0.408 18 670511 1756 1982 227 0.998 0.280 0.956 4.324 0.237 0.345 19 670512 1893 1982 90 0.997 0.299 0.074 2.411 0.359 0.023 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 0.998 0.261 0.681 3.597 0.272 0.082 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.989 0.362 0.817 3.402 0.307 0.433 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 0.995 0.309 0.967 5.571 0.275 0.263 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.005 0.066 0.759 4.282 0.043 0.165 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 0.997 0.299 0.817 4.002 0.273 0.261 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.007 0.069 0.818 1.928 0.067 0.219 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.983 0.212 -0.133 2.411 0.202 0.021 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.991 0.271 0.548 3.482 0.241 0.128 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 0.998 0.340 1.365 5.409 0.307 0.347 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 0.999 0.499 3.408 20.981 0.359 0.690 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.236 0.126 0.009 -0.285 3.100 -0.178 0.560 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.178 SERIES 670432 AND 670482 114 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.560 SERIES 670411 AND 670412 175 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.236 0.276 0.382 0.349 0.161 0.195 0.269 SDEV 0.198 0.177 0.181 0.161 0.181 0.171 0.190 SERR 0.114 0.056 0.018 0.015 0.014 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.694 0.836 0.908 0.906 0.795 0.836 0.885 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.977 0.210 0.337 3.112 0.215 0.171 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.297 0.167 0.040 73 194 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.55 1.00 1.06 1.61 15.61 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.14 0.00 0.82 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.170 0.199 0.108 0.135 0.139 0.084 0.085 0.002 0.007 0.091 PACF 0.170 0.175 0.054 0.083 0.089 0.016 0.025 -0.054 -0.032 0.084 95% C.L. 0.122 0.126 0.131 0.132 0.134 0.136 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.138 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.062 0.140 0.175 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.210 0.232 0.275 0.184 0.124 0.169 0.162 0.099 -0.002 0.065 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.210 2 0.168 0.197 3 0.127 0.161 0.212 4 0.110 0.149 0.202 0.077 5 0.110 0.149 0.202 0.077 0.000 6 0.110 0.144 0.189 0.067 -0.007 0.063 7 0.106 0.145 0.185 0.054 -0.018 0.055 0.070 8 0.106 0.145 0.185 0.054 -0.018 0.055 0.070 0.002 9 0.106 0.153 0.191 0.052 -0.011 0.077 0.087 0.014 -0.118 10 0.105 0.153 0.192 0.052 -0.012 0.077 0.088 0.015 -0.117 -0.006 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1989.30 1979.29 1970.71 1960.46 1960.89 1962.89 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1963.83 1964.52 1966.52 1964.79 1966.78 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.127 0.161 0.212 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.23 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 113.94 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.127 0.177 0.255 0.088 0.090 0.079 0.043 0.037 0.029 0.0188 0.015 0.011 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.0009 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670411 3 0.003 0.021 0.022 -0.025 2 670412 3 0.119 0.180 0.124 0.186 3 670421 3 0.197 0.243 0.149 0.197 4 670422 3 0.042 0.085 0.111 0.091 5 670431 3 0.076 0.188 0.130 0.020 6 670432 3 0.035 0.150 0.054 0.065 7 670441 3 0.169 0.249 0.051 0.229 8 670442 3 0.158 0.220 0.183 0.123 9 670451 3 0.056 0.079 0.082 0.187 10 670452 3 0.082 0.268 -0.012 -0.109 11 670461 3 0.042 0.119 0.051 0.035 12 670462 3 0.042 0.202 -0.035 0.055 13 670471 3 0.171 0.301 0.111 0.045 14 670472 3 0.110 0.272 0.121 -0.116 15 670481 3 0.274 0.381 0.187 0.045 16 670482 3 0.496 0.557 0.132 0.074 17 670491 3 0.176 0.381 0.021 0.084 18 670511 3 0.186 0.232 0.200 0.138 19 670512 3 0.094 0.033 0.093 -0.131 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670521 3 0.023 0.071 0.049 0.108 21 670522 3 0.274 0.290 0.156 0.212 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.135 0.215 0.094 0.072 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.114 0.130 0.065 0.105 MEDIAN 3 0.110 0.220 0.111 0.074 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.133 0.154 0.080 0.103 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.003 0.021 -0.035 -0.131 LOWER HINGE 3 0.042 0.119 0.051 0.035 UPPER HINGE 3 0.176 0.272 0.132 0.138 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.496 0.557 0.200 0.229 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 1.000 0.267 0.565 3.471 0.292 0.001 2 670412 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.359 1.156 5.717 0.373 -0.003 3 670421 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.326 1.319 6.320 0.321 -0.007 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.000 0.319 0.696 4.352 0.342 -0.008 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.317 1.001 4.351 0.340 -0.004 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.270 0.908 4.090 0.300 -0.001 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.312 1.743 8.665 0.307 -0.031 8 670442 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.337 1.524 7.323 0.354 -0.010 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.000 0.280 0.623 3.198 0.300 -0.004 10 670452 1870 1982 113 1.000 0.274 0.576 2.997 0.309 -0.005 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.210 0.254 4.453 0.228 -0.005 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.212 -0.130 3.579 0.242 0.000 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.251 0.503 3.771 0.269 -0.008 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.210 0.525 4.229 0.233 -0.010 15 670481 1824 1982 159 1.000 0.278 0.885 3.950 0.289 0.001 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.001 0.350 2.549 15.204 0.321 0.012 17 670491 1816 1982 167 1.000 0.291 1.392 8.835 0.314 -0.003 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.253 1.033 5.606 0.270 -0.006 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.295 -0.011 2.408 0.368 -0.032 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.258 0.702 3.669 0.282 -0.004 21 670522 1805 1982 178 1.000 0.309 0.470 3.066 0.357 -0.023 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.285 0.871 5.203 0.305 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.044 0.611 2.902 0.042 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.280 0.702 4.229 0.307 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.058 0.631 2.138 0.058 0.005 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.210 -0.130 2.408 0.228 -0.032 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.258 0.525 3.579 0.282 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.317 1.156 5.717 0.340 -0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.001 0.359 2.549 15.204 0.373 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.240 0.115 0.008 -0.006 2.673 -0.025 0.560 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.025 SERIES 670432 AND 670482 114 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.560 SERIES 670411 AND 670412 175 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.203 0.290 0.349 0.326 0.187 0.193 0.283 SDEV 0.226 0.137 0.170 0.155 0.158 0.154 0.166 SERR 0.130 0.043 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.652 0.845 0.896 0.897 0.823 0.834 0.892 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.986 0.207 0.462 3.412 0.241 -0.083 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.298 0.166 0.024 64 203 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.78 1.00 1.07 1.84 6.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.16 0.00 0.82 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.083 0.005 -0.104 0.031 0.039 0.014 0.051 -0.047 -0.022 0.085 PACF -0.083 -0.002 -0.104 0.014 0.043 0.011 0.059 -0.031 -0.028 0.091 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.005 0.002 0.024 0.039 0.009 0.063 -0.040 -0.027 0.090 PACF 0.002 0.005 0.002 0.024 0.039 0.009 0.062 -0.041 -0.029 0.089 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.987 0.222 0.233 3.118 0.218 0.234 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.233 0.260 0.295 0.166 0.160 0.113 0.134 0.039 0.017 0.102 PACF 0.233 0.217 0.219 0.034 0.029 -0.013 0.051 -0.055 -0.050 0.072 95% C.L. 0.122 0.129 0.137 0.146 0.149 0.151 0.152 0.154 0.154 0.154 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.143 0.135 0.177 0.219 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.46 MINUTES