RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO567N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO567N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Eldora CO, (EK ab 411) DENSITY_MINIMUM PIPO - 670 2 United States of America ponderosa pine, western yellow pine 2650 39 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 670421 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 670452 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1933 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 670461 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 670471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1884 1888 / 1950 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 670472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1878 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 670482 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 4 GAPS / 1814 1818 / 1842 1842 / 1856 1860 / 1918 1922 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 670491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 670511 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1959 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 670512 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1956 1960 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 670522 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1976 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 0.397 0.024 0.005 3.060 0.058 0.205 2 670412 1808 1982 175 0.390 0.027 1.687 9.274 0.067 0.157 3 670421 1756 1982 227 0.431 0.029 0.232 3.304 0.062 0.302 4 670422 1716 1982 267 0.427 0.027 0.574 4.943 0.059 0.278 5 670431 1883 1982 100 0.398 0.033 -0.426 3.272 0.053 0.610 6 670432 1869 1982 114 0.416 0.022 -0.061 3.252 0.053 0.221 7 670441 1796 1982 187 0.386 0.031 2.081 11.728 0.069 0.232 8 670442 1802 1982 181 0.394 0.038 1.010 5.724 0.077 0.344 9 670451 1865 1982 118 0.360 0.027 0.614 5.346 0.055 0.530 10 670452 1870 1982 113 0.386 0.026 0.514 4.153 0.057 0.391 11 670461 1794 1982 189 0.380 0.024 3.431 29.206 0.053 0.025 12 670462 1799 1982 184 0.367 0.018 0.472 3.672 0.049 0.151 13 670471 1802 1982 181 0.401 0.025 0.628 3.790 0.058 0.208 14 670472 1809 1982 174 0.400 0.026 0.548 3.461 0.061 0.259 15 670481 1824 1982 159 0.434 0.027 0.398 5.262 0.047 0.468 16 670482 1803 1982 180 0.438 0.025 0.904 7.404 0.047 0.315 17 670491 1816 1982 167 0.400 0.030 1.844 8.287 0.069 0.111 18 670511 1756 1982 227 0.387 0.030 1.392 7.832 0.065 0.378 19 670512 1893 1982 90 0.381 0.019 0.490 3.728 0.050 0.139 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 0.381 0.026 0.325 3.099 0.063 0.290 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.368 0.030 0.107 3.248 0.076 0.244 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1716 TO 1982 267 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 0.396 0.027 0.798 6.335 0.059 0.279 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.022 0.005 0.877 5.765 0.009 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 0.394 0.027 0.548 4.153 0.058 0.259 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.019 0.006 0.685 4.100 0.012 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 85 0.360 0.018 -0.426 3.060 0.047 0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.381 0.025 0.325 3.304 0.053 0.205 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 0.401 0.030 1.010 7.404 0.065 0.344 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 0.438 0.038 3.431 29.206 0.077 0.610 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.365 0.143 0.010 -0.239 2.793 -0.052 0.770 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.052 SERIES 670431 AND 670471 100 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.770 SERIES 670442 AND 670451 118 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.168 0.294 0.443 0.380 0.291 0.449 0.505 SDEV 0.097 0.210 0.173 0.181 0.232 0.150 0.167 SERR 0.056 0.067 0.017 0.017 0.018 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.597 0.848 0.927 0.916 0.893 0.945 0.955 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.399 0.018 0.800 4.649 0.048 0.091 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.042 -0.034 0.039 38 229 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.36 1.00 1.03 1.39 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.83 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 178. 28. 90. 159. 187. 267. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.091 0.060 0.155 0.076 0.192 0.108 -0.033 0.094 0.135 0.126 PACF 0.091 0.052 0.147 0.050 0.174 0.060 -0.076 0.044 0.093 0.091 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.127 0.127 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.136 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.011 0.091 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005972 0.40312290 2 670412 1 0.01579081 0.02508706 0.00000000 0.38694942 3 670421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004317 0.42570508 4 670422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010794 0.41257721 5 670431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00084380 0.35498789 6 670432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013657 0.40846297 7 670441 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005810 0.39096946 8 670442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022391 0.37349170 9 670451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045961 0.33273795 10 670452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020777 0.37466818 11 670461 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005348 0.38539767 12 670462 1 0.01205187 0.02569754 0.00000000 0.36424533 13 670471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004951 0.40551358 14 670472 1 0.02129209 0.03049903 0.00000000 0.39593604 15 670481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00023457 0.41519704 16 670482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019218 0.41987938 17 670491 1 0.06630518 0.06701414 0.00000000 0.39435714 18 670511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003542 0.39144266 19 670512 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010454 0.37764916 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008367 0.37384331 21 670522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00029973 0.34181291 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 1.000 0.059 0.071 3.278 0.058 0.185 2 670412 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.069 1.787 10.257 0.066 0.137 3 670421 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.066 0.306 3.349 0.062 0.302 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.000 0.060 0.516 4.376 0.058 0.201 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.056 0.210 3.272 0.053 0.217 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.052 0.111 3.251 0.052 0.198 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.080 1.965 11.171 0.069 0.220 8 670442 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.092 1.046 5.581 0.077 0.287 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.000 0.061 1.075 6.377 0.055 0.270 10 670452 1870 1982 113 1.000 0.065 0.575 3.747 0.056 0.352 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.062 3.796 32.703 0.053 0.007 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.048 0.581 3.974 0.049 0.126 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.060 0.550 3.945 0.056 0.206 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.064 0.703 3.908 0.061 0.223 15 670481 1824 1982 159 1.000 0.057 0.626 5.622 0.046 0.373 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.052 1.185 7.611 0.046 0.200 17 670491 1816 1982 167 1.000 0.070 2.499 13.079 0.068 -0.060 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.077 1.395 7.928 0.065 0.370 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.049 0.343 3.550 0.049 0.143 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.067 0.276 3.135 0.062 0.272 21 670522 1805 1982 178 1.000 0.070 0.057 4.224 0.074 -0.015 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.064 0.937 6.873 0.059 0.201 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.011 0.932 6.580 0.009 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.062 0.581 4.224 0.058 0.206 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.012 0.879 4.061 0.012 0.129 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.048 0.057 3.135 0.046 -0.060 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.057 0.306 3.550 0.053 0.143 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.069 1.185 7.611 0.065 0.272 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.000 0.092 3.796 32.703 0.077 0.373 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670411 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670412 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670421 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670422 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670431 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670432 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670441 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670442 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670451 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670452 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670461 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670462 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670471 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670472 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670481 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670482 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670491 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670511 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670512 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670521 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670522 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 1.000 0.058 0.124 3.531 0.058 0.144 2 670412 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.066 1.845 10.736 0.066 0.047 3 670421 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.059 0.370 3.644 0.062 0.139 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.000 0.056 0.649 5.792 0.058 0.094 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.048 0.380 4.668 0.053 -0.039 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.049 0.139 3.199 0.052 0.102 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.076 1.831 10.511 0.069 0.145 8 670442 1802 1982 181 0.999 0.079 1.323 6.798 0.077 0.063 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.000 0.056 1.152 6.586 0.055 0.171 10 670452 1870 1982 113 1.000 0.057 0.678 3.964 0.056 0.172 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.061 4.034 35.043 0.053 -0.040 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.048 0.630 4.314 0.049 0.107 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.056 0.527 4.090 0.056 0.097 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.063 0.774 3.874 0.061 0.178 15 670481 1824 1982 159 1.000 0.054 0.730 6.587 0.046 0.299 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.049 1.205 8.056 0.046 0.116 17 670491 1816 1982 167 1.000 0.068 2.473 12.853 0.068 -0.118 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.071 1.400 8.126 0.065 0.272 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.044 0.380 3.235 0.050 -0.029 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.063 0.364 3.308 0.062 0.188 21 670522 1805 1982 178 1.000 0.067 0.214 4.915 0.074 -0.130 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.059 1.011 7.325 0.059 0.094 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.009 0.936 6.925 0.009 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.058 0.678 4.915 0.058 0.107 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.011 0.943 4.183 0.012 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.999 0.044 0.124 3.199 0.046 -0.130 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.054 0.380 3.874 0.053 0.047 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.066 1.323 8.056 0.065 0.171 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.000 0.079 4.034 35.043 0.077 0.299 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.420 0.109 0.008 -0.197 2.422 0.146 0.701 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.146 SERIES 670431 AND 670462 100 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.701 SERIES 670441 AND 670442 181 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.153 0.313 0.458 0.397 0.331 0.454 0.520 SDEV 0.074 0.207 0.164 0.174 0.176 0.143 0.159 SERR 0.043 0.066 0.016 0.016 0.013 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.571 0.859 0.931 0.922 0.909 0.946 0.958 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.999 0.041 1.024 6.409 0.045 -0.047 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.199 0.104 -0.068 64 203 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.58 1.01 1.06 1.64 7.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.83 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.047 -0.075 0.024 -0.062 0.045 0.036 -0.188 -0.007 0.062 -0.001 PACF -0.047 -0.077 0.017 -0.066 0.042 0.030 -0.179 -0.024 0.040 0.009 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.128 0.128 0.129 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.105 -0.085 0.038 -0.041 0.031 0.116 -0.198 0.001 0.036 -0.049 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.105 2 -0.115 -0.097 3 -0.113 -0.095 0.019 4 -0.113 -0.099 0.014 -0.043 5 -0.111 -0.099 0.017 -0.040 0.027 6 -0.115 -0.094 0.015 -0.028 0.040 0.117 7 -0.095 -0.087 0.010 -0.026 0.024 0.098 -0.171 8 -0.098 -0.085 0.010 -0.027 0.024 0.096 -0.173 -0.021 9 -0.098 -0.086 0.010 -0.027 0.024 0.096 -0.173 -0.021 -0.001 10 -0.098 -0.086 0.004 -0.023 0.025 0.095 -0.172 -0.024 -0.005 -0.035 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1254.06 1253.09 1252.58 1254.49 1255.99 1257.79 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1256.09 1250.19 1252.08 1254.07 1255.75 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.115 -0.097 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.03 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.07 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.115 -0.083 0.021 0.006 -0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670411 2 0.054 0.131 0.103 2 670412 2 0.016 0.043 0.086 3 670421 2 0.057 0.137 0.023 4 670422 2 0.030 0.089 0.054 5 670431 2 0.077 -0.034 0.138 6 670432 2 0.013 0.103 0.021 7 670441 2 0.057 0.140 0.038 8 670442 2 0.040 0.060 0.049 9 670451 2 0.035 0.181 -0.055 10 670452 2 0.038 0.188 -0.085 11 670461 2 0.010 -0.037 0.088 12 670462 2 0.012 0.107 -0.002 13 670471 2 0.020 0.095 0.026 14 670472 2 0.044 0.167 0.059 15 670481 2 0.116 0.256 0.146 16 670482 2 0.068 0.108 0.079 17 670491 2 0.015 -0.115 0.023 18 670511 2 0.141 0.242 0.112 19 670512 2 0.028 -0.026 0.120 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670521 2 0.092 0.146 0.225 21 670522 2 0.026 -0.122 0.062 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.047 0.089 0.062 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.035 0.105 0.069 MEDIAN 2 0.038 0.107 0.059 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.037 0.103 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.010 -0.122 -0.085 LOWER HINGE 2 0.020 0.043 0.023 UPPER HINGE 2 0.057 0.146 0.103 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.141 0.256 0.225 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 1.000 0.057 0.162 3.723 0.063 -0.017 2 670412 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.065 1.857 10.889 0.068 -0.007 3 670421 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.059 0.402 3.662 0.067 -0.005 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.000 0.056 0.721 5.907 0.062 -0.007 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.048 0.426 4.732 0.052 -0.034 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.048 0.152 3.098 0.055 -0.003 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.075 1.854 10.616 0.074 -0.007 8 670442 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.079 1.367 7.021 0.080 -0.009 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.000 0.056 1.186 6.444 0.060 0.003 10 670452 1870 1982 113 1.000 0.056 0.559 3.812 0.063 0.002 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.060 4.019 34.907 0.052 0.003 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.047 0.599 4.231 0.052 0.000 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.056 0.588 4.297 0.059 -0.003 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.061 0.733 4.004 0.066 -0.005 15 670481 1824 1982 159 1.000 0.051 0.643 6.971 0.053 -0.013 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.049 1.313 8.633 0.049 -0.018 17 670491 1816 1982 167 1.000 0.067 2.390 12.565 0.064 0.000 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.068 1.392 8.285 0.074 -0.028 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.044 0.423 3.273 0.050 -0.013 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.061 0.488 3.664 0.067 -0.021 21 670522 1805 1982 178 1.000 0.066 0.196 4.658 0.070 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.059 1.022 7.400 0.062 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.009 0.924 6.882 0.009 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.057 0.643 4.732 0.063 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.014 0.941 4.473 0.013 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.044 0.152 3.098 0.049 -0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.051 0.426 3.812 0.053 -0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.065 1.367 8.285 0.067 -0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.000 0.079 4.019 34.907 0.080 0.003 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.444 0.104 0.007 -0.210 2.643 0.160 0.716 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.160 SERIES 670431 AND 670462 100 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.716 SERIES 670441 AND 670442 181 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.175 0.327 0.486 0.433 0.372 0.481 0.534 SDEV 0.040 0.195 0.143 0.151 0.156 0.136 0.160 SERR 0.023 0.062 0.014 0.014 0.012 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.609 0.867 0.938 0.932 0.923 0.951 0.960 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.999 0.041 0.992 6.073 0.048 -0.127 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.172 0.086 -0.051 64 203 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.44 1.01 1.06 1.50 12.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.83 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.126 -0.136 0.041 -0.070 0.064 0.053 -0.187 0.011 0.068 -0.009 PACF -0.126 -0.155 0.002 -0.088 0.051 0.049 -0.160 -0.030 0.023 0.010 95% C.L. 0.122 0.124 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.132 0.132 0.133 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.040 -0.146 -0.156 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.013 -0.001 -0.071 0.044 0.027 -0.171 -0.002 0.043 0.009 PACF 0.000 -0.013 -0.001 -0.071 0.044 0.025 -0.171 -0.005 0.048 0.009 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.127 0.127 0.127 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.000 -0.013 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.999 0.041 0.966 6.111 0.047 -0.105 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.104 -0.089 0.023 -0.074 0.060 0.047 -0.181 0.009 0.058 -0.001 PACF -0.104 -0.101 0.003 -0.082 0.046 0.045 -0.164 -0.027 0.033 0.013 95% C.L. 0.122 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 0.130 0.130 0.130 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.021 -0.115 -0.102 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES