RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO567P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO567P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Eldora CO, (EK ab 411) LATEWOOD_PERCENT PIPO - 670 2 United States of America ponderosa pine, western yellow pine 2650 39 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 670421 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 670452 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1933 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 670461 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 670471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 670472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1878 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 670482 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1842 1842 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 670491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 2.174 0.665 0.623 3.576 0.291 0.319 2 670412 1808 1982 175 2.625 0.831 1.038 4.435 0.324 0.058 3 670421 1756 1982 227 2.322 0.833 1.542 7.655 0.313 0.234 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.740 0.620 1.007 4.309 0.296 0.334 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.906 0.730 1.039 3.917 0.332 0.393 6 670432 1869 1982 114 2.165 0.722 1.241 5.090 0.310 0.325 7 670441 1796 1982 187 2.029 0.778 2.237 10.543 0.327 0.109 8 670442 1802 1982 181 2.109 0.821 0.855 3.290 0.290 0.508 9 670451 1865 1982 118 2.065 0.543 1.487 7.419 0.243 0.210 10 670452 1870 1982 113 2.422 0.789 1.776 8.059 0.250 0.293 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.843 0.484 2.334 13.849 0.238 0.106 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.816 0.558 1.988 11.733 0.233 0.455 13 670471 1802 1982 181 2.207 0.663 0.805 4.044 0.299 0.143 14 670472 1809 1982 174 2.355 0.719 1.471 6.608 0.261 0.224 15 670481 1824 1982 159 2.279 0.665 1.253 5.322 0.241 0.303 16 670482 1803 1982 180 2.289 0.714 0.986 5.487 0.251 0.377 17 670491 1816 1982 167 2.402 0.884 0.567 3.052 0.317 0.419 18 670511 1756 1982 227 2.400 1.000 1.713 6.849 0.287 0.509 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.663 0.578 0.796 3.795 0.329 0.320 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 1.656 0.496 1.372 5.660 0.284 0.093 21 670522 1805 1982 178 2.154 0.699 1.263 5.266 0.282 0.340 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1716 TO 1982 267 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 2.125 0.704 1.304 6.188 0.286 0.289 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.270 0.132 0.498 2.889 0.033 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 2.165 0.714 1.253 5.322 0.290 0.319 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.416 0.168 0.555 3.375 0.062 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.656 0.484 0.567 3.052 0.233 0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.906 0.620 0.986 4.044 0.251 0.210 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 2.322 0.789 1.542 7.419 0.313 0.377 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 2.625 1.000 2.334 13.849 0.332 0.509 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.296 0.135 0.009 -0.113 3.175 -0.086 0.681 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.086 SERIES 670442 AND 670512 90 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.681 SERIES 670512 AND 670522 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR -0.024 0.257 0.308 0.244 0.207 0.295 0.421 SDEV 0.111 0.130 0.190 0.186 0.183 0.182 0.160 SERR 0.064 0.041 0.019 0.017 0.014 0.013 0.011 EPS -0.205 0.823 0.877 0.852 0.841 0.898 0.939 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 1.937 0.474 0.613 5.085 0.209 0.321 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.627 0.378 -0.262 84 183 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.79 1.00 1.12 1.91 14.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.21 0.00 0.77 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 178. 28. 90. 159. 187. 267. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.320 0.304 0.314 0.302 0.311 0.290 0.213 0.245 0.225 0.255 PACF 0.320 0.225 0.195 0.149 0.141 0.097 -0.009 0.050 0.027 0.077 95% C.L. 0.122 0.134 0.144 0.154 0.163 0.171 0.179 0.182 0.187 0.191 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.229 0.134 0.118 0.136 0.114 0.131 0.094 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00524675 1.63055313 2 670412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00352718 2.93587780 3 670421 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00243081 2.04233003 4 670422 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00239683 1.41856265 5 670431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01096754 1.35253942 6 670432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00372925 1.95074368 7 670441 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00073009 1.96083665 8 670442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00672256 1.49730754 9 670451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00437552 2.32559752 10 670452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00676917 2.81945705 11 670461 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00100515 1.74585974 12 670462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00282477 1.55452418 13 670471 1 0.26670349 0.01300178 0.00000000 2.10714030 14 670472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00338518 2.06329060 15 670481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00157890 2.15293288 16 670482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00604231 1.74213815 17 670491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00593847 1.89674962 18 670511 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00202781 2.16860986 19 670512 1 1.12384295 0.08834113 0.00000000 1.52773833 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00220928 1.47232676 21 670522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00282392 1.90175390 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 0.999 0.268 0.609 3.689 0.290 0.123 2 670412 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.308 1.159 5.483 0.322 0.000 3 670421 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.357 1.784 9.390 0.309 0.216 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.001 0.340 1.004 4.615 0.295 0.272 5 670431 1883 1982 100 0.998 0.333 1.019 3.995 0.329 0.164 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.327 1.236 5.065 0.307 0.307 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.385 2.336 11.174 0.326 0.111 8 670442 1802 1982 181 1.004 0.357 0.682 3.132 0.289 0.414 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.000 0.259 2.093 11.120 0.241 0.141 10 670452 1870 1982 113 1.000 0.317 2.218 11.142 0.249 0.245 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.258 2.154 12.446 0.236 0.097 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.299 2.376 14.331 0.232 0.423 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.297 0.792 4.271 0.295 0.130 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.292 1.224 5.414 0.259 0.216 15 670481 1824 1982 159 1.000 0.291 1.311 5.586 0.240 0.289 16 670482 1803 1982 180 0.999 0.275 0.891 5.000 0.251 0.249 17 670491 1816 1982 167 1.002 0.365 0.764 3.467 0.313 0.376 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.416 1.811 7.144 0.286 0.509 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.332 1.284 6.021 0.325 0.195 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.288 1.119 4.581 0.282 0.059 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.999 0.314 1.278 5.422 0.280 0.318 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.318 1.388 6.785 0.284 0.231 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.001 0.042 0.573 3.348 0.032 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.314 1.236 5.422 0.289 0.216 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.049 0.807 4.809 0.058 0.177 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.998 0.258 0.609 3.132 0.232 0.000 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.291 1.004 4.581 0.251 0.130 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.340 1.811 9.390 0.309 0.307 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.004 0.416 2.376 14.331 0.329 0.509 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670411 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670412 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670421 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670422 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670431 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670432 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670441 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670442 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670451 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670452 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670461 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670462 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670471 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670472 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670481 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670482 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670491 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670511 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670512 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670521 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670522 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 0.999 0.259 0.584 3.451 0.290 0.037 2 670412 1808 1982 175 0.999 0.300 1.170 5.616 0.322 -0.040 3 670421 1756 1982 227 0.998 0.345 1.699 8.589 0.309 0.184 4 670422 1716 1982 267 0.997 0.316 0.719 3.744 0.295 0.213 5 670431 1883 1982 100 0.997 0.295 0.846 3.819 0.329 -0.054 6 670432 1869 1982 114 0.997 0.296 0.900 3.986 0.307 0.167 7 670441 1796 1982 187 0.996 0.351 1.974 8.905 0.326 0.023 8 670442 1802 1982 181 0.991 0.275 0.936 3.774 0.289 0.072 9 670451 1865 1982 118 0.999 0.243 1.815 9.607 0.242 0.070 10 670452 1870 1982 113 0.998 0.293 2.008 10.265 0.249 0.175 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.252 2.327 14.156 0.236 0.052 12 670462 1799 1982 184 0.999 0.276 1.860 11.200 0.232 0.353 13 670471 1802 1982 181 0.999 0.295 0.800 4.328 0.295 0.116 14 670472 1809 1982 174 0.999 0.289 1.311 5.657 0.259 0.195 15 670481 1824 1982 159 0.999 0.277 1.440 6.457 0.240 0.211 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.261 0.820 5.310 0.251 0.184 17 670491 1816 1982 167 0.996 0.297 0.371 3.265 0.313 0.121 18 670511 1756 1982 227 0.993 0.335 1.277 5.288 0.286 0.318 19 670512 1893 1982 90 0.997 0.299 1.020 4.963 0.325 0.054 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 0.998 0.281 1.210 4.921 0.282 -0.008 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.998 0.268 1.010 5.029 0.280 0.062 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 0.998 0.291 1.243 6.301 0.284 0.119 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.002 0.029 0.528 2.986 0.032 0.108 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 0.998 0.293 1.170 5.288 0.289 0.116 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.002 0.023 0.853 4.603 0.058 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.991 0.243 0.371 3.265 0.232 -0.054 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.997 0.275 0.846 3.986 0.251 0.052 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 0.999 0.299 1.699 8.589 0.309 0.184 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.000 0.351 2.327 14.156 0.329 0.353 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.336 0.103 0.007 0.006 2.604 0.098 0.627 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.098 SERIES 670422 AND 670482 180 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.627 SERIES 670512 AND 670522 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.048 0.272 0.327 0.266 0.233 0.315 0.442 SDEV 0.069 0.122 0.164 0.173 0.173 0.168 0.148 SERR 0.040 0.038 0.016 0.016 0.013 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.268 0.833 0.886 0.867 0.861 0.906 0.943 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.983 0.212 1.082 5.809 0.220 0.053 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.367 0.200 -0.009 67 200 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.57 1.00 1.07 1.65 40.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.14 0.00 0.83 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.053 0.014 0.059 0.015 0.017 0.009 -0.081 -0.048 -0.047 -0.023 PACF 0.053 0.011 0.058 0.009 0.015 0.004 -0.084 -0.042 -0.043 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.125 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.005 -0.116 0.084 -0.038 0.021 0.022 -0.070 -0.002 -0.034 -0.010 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.005 2 0.005 -0.116 3 0.015 -0.117 0.086 4 0.020 -0.123 0.087 -0.055 5 0.023 -0.127 0.092 -0.055 0.043 6 0.022 -0.127 0.092 -0.055 0.043 0.002 7 0.023 -0.124 0.089 -0.050 0.036 0.003 -0.056 8 0.022 -0.124 0.089 -0.050 0.037 0.003 -0.056 -0.004 9 0.022 -0.127 0.089 -0.048 0.034 0.007 -0.062 -0.003 -0.050 10 0.022 -0.127 0.090 -0.048 0.034 0.007 -0.062 -0.003 -0.050 0.002 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2032.41 2034.41 2032.77 2032.78 2033.99 2035.48 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2037.48 2038.65 2040.65 2041.97 2043.97 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670411 0 0.001 2 670412 0 0.002 3 670421 0 0.034 4 670422 0 0.046 5 670431 0 0.003 6 670432 0 0.028 7 670441 0 0.001 8 670442 0 0.005 9 670451 0 0.005 10 670452 0 0.031 11 670461 0 0.003 12 670462 0 0.125 13 670471 0 0.014 14 670472 0 0.038 15 670481 0 0.045 16 670482 0 0.034 17 670491 0 0.015 18 670511 0 0.105 19 670512 0 0.003 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670521 0 0.000 21 670522 0 0.004 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.026 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.034 MEDIAN 0 0.014 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.031 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.003 UPPER HINGE 0 0.034 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.125 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 1.000 0.259 0.584 3.451 0.289 0.037 2 670412 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.300 1.170 5.616 0.322 -0.040 3 670421 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.345 1.699 8.589 0.309 0.184 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.000 0.316 0.719 3.744 0.294 0.213 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.295 0.846 3.819 0.328 -0.054 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.296 0.900 3.986 0.306 0.167 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.351 1.974 8.905 0.325 0.023 8 670442 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.275 0.936 3.774 0.286 0.072 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.000 0.243 1.815 9.607 0.241 0.070 10 670452 1870 1982 113 1.000 0.293 2.008 10.265 0.249 0.175 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.252 2.327 14.156 0.236 0.052 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.276 1.860 11.200 0.232 0.353 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.295 0.800 4.328 0.295 0.116 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.289 1.311 5.657 0.259 0.195 15 670481 1824 1982 159 1.000 0.277 1.440 6.457 0.240 0.211 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.261 0.820 5.310 0.251 0.184 17 670491 1816 1982 167 1.000 0.297 0.371 3.265 0.312 0.121 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.335 1.277 5.288 0.284 0.318 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.299 1.020 4.963 0.324 0.054 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.281 1.210 4.921 0.281 -0.008 21 670522 1805 1982 178 1.000 0.268 1.010 5.029 0.280 0.062 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.291 1.243 6.301 0.283 0.119 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.029 0.528 2.986 0.032 0.108 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.293 1.170 5.288 0.286 0.116 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.023 0.853 4.603 0.058 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.243 0.371 3.265 0.232 -0.054 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.275 0.846 3.986 0.251 0.052 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.299 1.699 8.589 0.309 0.184 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.000 0.351 2.327 14.156 0.328 0.353 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.336 0.103 0.007 0.006 2.604 0.098 0.627 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.098 SERIES 670422 AND 670482 180 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.627 SERIES 670512 AND 670522 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.048 0.272 0.327 0.266 0.233 0.315 0.442 SDEV 0.069 0.122 0.164 0.173 0.173 0.168 0.148 SERR 0.040 0.038 0.016 0.016 0.013 0.012 0.010 EPS 0.268 0.833 0.886 0.867 0.861 0.906 0.943 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.986 0.212 1.082 5.813 0.220 0.053 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.368 0.200 -0.010 65 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.61 1.01 1.08 1.69 43.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.14 0.00 0.84 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.052 0.014 0.058 0.016 0.017 0.009 -0.081 -0.048 -0.046 -0.023 PACF 0.052 0.011 0.057 0.010 0.015 0.004 -0.084 -0.043 -0.041 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.125 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.986 0.212 1.082 5.813 0.220 0.053 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.052 0.014 0.058 0.016 0.017 0.009 -0.081 -0.048 -0.046 -0.023 PACF 0.052 0.011 0.057 0.010 0.015 0.004 -0.084 -0.043 -0.041 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.125 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES