RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO567W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO567W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Eldora CO, (EK ab 411) WIDTH_RING PIPO - 670 2 United States of America ponderosa pine, western yellow pine 2650 39 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 670421 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 670452 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1933 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 670461 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 670471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 670472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1878 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 670482 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1842 1842 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 670491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 0.493 0.190 0.998 4.356 0.271 0.651 2 670412 1808 1982 175 0.641 0.269 0.392 2.401 0.281 0.705 3 670421 1756 1982 227 0.356 0.273 2.769 12.066 0.282 0.776 4 670422 1716 1982 267 0.497 0.316 1.741 6.058 0.251 0.871 5 670431 1883 1982 100 0.858 0.435 0.889 3.385 0.277 0.723 6 670432 1869 1982 114 0.511 0.183 1.428 6.941 0.269 0.508 7 670441 1796 1982 187 0.526 0.221 0.712 3.228 0.298 0.628 8 670442 1802 1982 181 0.699 0.413 0.298 1.922 0.296 0.841 9 670451 1865 1982 118 0.992 0.513 0.702 2.718 0.245 0.822 10 670452 1870 1982 113 0.879 0.586 1.284 4.506 0.216 0.890 11 670461 1794 1982 189 0.427 0.107 -0.154 3.718 0.211 0.495 12 670462 1799 1982 184 0.457 0.116 0.195 2.971 0.211 0.503 13 670471 1802 1982 181 0.501 0.252 1.385 4.321 0.258 0.795 14 670472 1809 1982 174 0.407 0.163 0.763 3.414 0.252 0.692 15 670481 1824 1982 159 0.603 0.288 1.295 4.147 0.218 0.820 16 670482 1803 1982 180 0.452 0.226 1.493 6.190 0.229 0.838 17 670491 1816 1982 167 0.374 0.169 1.267 4.704 0.301 0.630 18 670511 1756 1982 227 0.356 0.137 0.354 2.985 0.255 0.703 19 670512 1893 1982 90 0.465 0.217 1.126 3.536 0.256 0.777 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 0.748 0.225 0.412 3.048 0.204 0.633 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.948 0.418 0.610 2.582 0.214 0.826 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1716 TO 1982 267 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 0.580 0.272 0.950 4.247 0.252 0.720 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.199 0.131 0.650 2.209 0.031 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 0.501 0.226 0.889 3.536 0.255 0.723 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.246 0.132 0.882 1.521 0.059 0.189 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.356 0.107 -0.154 1.922 0.204 0.495 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.452 0.183 0.412 2.985 0.218 0.633 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 0.699 0.316 1.295 4.506 0.277 0.822 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 0.992 0.586 2.769 12.066 0.301 0.890 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.467 0.221 0.015 -0.551 3.338 -0.187 0.914 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.187 SERIES 670451 AND 670511 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.914 SERIES 670451 AND 670452 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.537 0.435 0.528 0.356 0.243 0.351 0.353 SDEV 0.045 0.173 0.149 0.208 0.294 0.243 0.216 SERR 0.026 0.055 0.015 0.019 0.022 0.017 0.015 EPS 0.895 0.912 0.947 0.908 0.867 0.919 0.920 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.618 0.268 1.698 7.060 0.185 0.833 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.157 -0.085 0.259 73 194 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 1.04 1.01 1.10 2.15 5.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.17 0.00 0.80 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 178. 28. 90. 159. 187. 267. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.830 0.754 0.700 0.689 0.700 0.665 0.615 0.593 0.598 0.584 PACF 0.830 0.209 0.104 0.177 0.190 -0.020 -0.056 0.056 0.102 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.122 0.189 0.229 0.259 0.286 0.310 0.331 0.348 0.362 0.377 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.746 0.537 0.100 -0.030 0.079 0.249 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670411 1 0.56324959 0.01295777 0.00000000 0.29796460 2 670412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00354913 0.95340884 3 670421 1 1.07105911 0.03501789 0.00000000 0.22352284 4 670422 1 1.14046764 0.01853744 0.00000000 0.26992944 5 670431 1 1.43191552 0.02880380 0.00000000 0.39560676 6 670432 1 0.45636237 0.03679121 0.00000000 0.40576002 7 670441 1 0.38126996 0.01723643 0.00000000 0.41334528 8 670442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00576893 1.22375691 9 670451 1 1.82787013 0.01642917 0.00000000 0.19166438 10 670452 1 2.06663322 0.02266014 0.00000000 0.13917857 11 670461 1 0.28810060 0.00880605 0.00000000 0.28856975 12 670462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00074140 0.52521026 13 670471 1 0.93311065 0.03240343 0.00000000 0.34323552 14 670472 1 0.45888853 0.02183338 0.00000000 0.28970864 15 670481 1 0.80976695 0.07100806 0.00000000 0.53425479 16 670482 1 0.51741117 0.06199740 0.00000000 0.40617871 17 670491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00072241 0.43507931 18 670511 1 0.19976760 0.04960557 0.00000000 0.33824700 19 670512 1 0.77836835 0.01860908 0.00000000 0.09094545 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00285224 0.98449373 21 670522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00534125 1.42613220 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 1.000 0.256 0.500 3.403 0.270 0.141 2 670412 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.316 0.337 3.296 0.279 0.462 3 670421 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.326 0.527 3.014 0.281 0.401 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.000 0.277 0.376 2.889 0.249 0.338 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.001 0.300 -0.024 2.722 0.273 0.364 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.272 0.490 3.921 0.267 0.286 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.378 0.708 4.001 0.296 0.554 8 670442 1802 1982 181 0.991 0.426 0.761 3.623 0.294 0.709 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.005 0.306 0.176 3.194 0.244 0.543 10 670452 1870 1982 113 1.009 0.333 0.578 3.734 0.222 0.616 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.205 -0.815 4.278 0.211 0.204 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.237 0.001 3.024 0.210 0.432 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.001 0.264 0.242 3.704 0.255 0.279 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.294 0.284 2.775 0.255 0.405 15 670481 1824 1982 159 1.000 0.402 1.055 4.378 0.217 0.742 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.489 2.274 10.728 0.230 0.808 17 670491 1816 1982 167 0.999 0.438 1.356 5.026 0.298 0.621 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.377 0.461 3.491 0.254 0.680 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.001 0.233 0.120 2.820 0.252 0.092 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 0.998 0.233 0.345 3.565 0.203 0.385 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.991 0.315 1.235 4.514 0.213 0.651 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.318 0.523 3.909 0.251 0.463 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.004 0.076 0.613 1.682 0.030 0.202 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.306 0.461 3.565 0.254 0.432 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.113 0.466 0.977 0.051 0.283 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.991 0.205 -0.815 2.722 0.203 0.092 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.264 0.242 3.024 0.222 0.338 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.377 0.708 4.001 0.273 0.621 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.009 0.489 2.274 10.728 0.298 0.808 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670411 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670412 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670421 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670422 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670431 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670432 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670441 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670442 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670451 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670452 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670461 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670462 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670471 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670472 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670481 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670482 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670491 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670511 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670512 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670521 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670522 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 0.999 0.252 0.481 3.348 0.270 0.105 2 670412 1808 1982 175 0.992 0.272 0.063 3.355 0.279 0.267 3 670421 1756 1982 227 0.998 0.319 0.513 3.043 0.280 0.381 4 670422 1716 1982 267 0.998 0.263 0.335 2.923 0.249 0.265 5 670431 1883 1982 100 0.997 0.285 0.189 3.018 0.273 0.278 6 670432 1869 1982 114 0.998 0.261 0.382 3.923 0.267 0.233 7 670441 1796 1982 187 0.995 0.356 0.620 4.052 0.296 0.506 8 670442 1802 1982 181 0.980 0.352 0.428 3.161 0.294 0.575 9 670451 1865 1982 118 0.992 0.237 -0.197 3.178 0.243 0.269 10 670452 1870 1982 113 0.993 0.274 0.319 2.980 0.221 0.482 11 670461 1794 1982 189 0.999 0.200 -0.726 4.604 0.211 0.153 12 670462 1799 1982 184 0.997 0.211 -0.170 3.078 0.210 0.293 13 670471 1802 1982 181 0.998 0.239 -0.065 3.462 0.255 0.164 14 670472 1809 1982 174 0.997 0.260 0.189 2.978 0.255 0.274 15 670481 1824 1982 159 0.993 0.312 0.483 3.400 0.217 0.612 16 670482 1803 1982 180 0.991 0.406 1.716 7.765 0.230 0.757 17 670491 1816 1982 167 0.989 0.310 0.503 3.485 0.298 0.278 18 670511 1756 1982 227 0.992 0.342 0.452 3.398 0.254 0.612 19 670512 1893 1982 90 0.999 0.229 0.157 3.090 0.252 0.050 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 0.999 0.211 0.011 3.322 0.203 0.241 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.995 0.250 0.333 2.977 0.213 0.452 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 0.995 0.278 0.286 3.549 0.251 0.345 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.005 0.054 0.455 1.051 0.030 0.186 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 0.997 0.263 0.333 3.322 0.254 0.278 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.006 0.073 0.418 0.419 0.052 0.241 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.980 0.200 -0.726 2.923 0.203 0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.992 0.239 0.063 3.043 0.221 0.241 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 0.998 0.312 0.481 3.462 0.273 0.482 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 0.999 0.406 1.716 7.765 0.298 0.757 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.332 0.129 0.009 -0.055 2.978 0.000 0.679 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.000 SERIES 670431 AND 670472 100 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.679 SERIES 670451 AND 670452 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.336 0.395 0.476 0.408 0.237 0.272 0.380 SDEV 0.077 0.118 0.145 0.188 0.198 0.189 0.179 SERR 0.044 0.037 0.014 0.017 0.015 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.788 0.897 0.936 0.925 0.863 0.887 0.928 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.987 0.189 -0.230 3.175 0.183 0.324 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.125 0.068 0.111 66 201 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.76 1.00 1.07 1.83 11.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.15 0.00 0.82 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.322 0.277 0.228 0.124 0.120 0.159 -0.012 0.039 0.086 0.054 PACF 0.322 0.193 0.109 -0.013 0.029 0.095 -0.126 0.009 0.081 0.027 95% C.L. 0.122 0.135 0.143 0.148 0.150 0.151 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.155 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.150 0.239 0.168 0.109 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.220 0.309 0.309 0.162 0.150 0.271 0.007 0.063 0.069 -0.046 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.220 2 0.160 0.274 3 0.098 0.238 0.226 4 0.096 0.235 0.225 0.010 5 0.096 0.238 0.228 0.012 -0.012 6 0.098 0.236 0.188 -0.030 -0.028 0.175 7 0.121 0.232 0.184 -0.006 0.002 0.188 -0.130 8 0.111 0.245 0.184 -0.006 0.016 0.205 -0.122 -0.072 9 0.111 0.245 0.185 -0.006 0.016 0.205 -0.121 -0.072 -0.002 10 0.111 0.241 0.178 0.005 0.016 0.205 -0.111 -0.058 0.004 -0.056 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2015.67 2004.42 1985.63 1973.61 1975.58 1977.55 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1971.23 1968.66 1969.27 1971.27 1972.44 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.098 0.238 0.226 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.47 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 119.72 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.098 0.247 0.274 0.108 0.131 0.100 0.065 0.060 0.044 0.0334 0.027 0.021 0.016 0.013 0.010 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.0028 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670411 3 0.045 0.083 0.088 0.122 2 670412 3 0.190 0.144 0.302 0.113 3 670421 3 0.211 0.266 0.212 0.106 4 670422 3 0.093 0.223 0.147 0.022 5 670431 3 0.152 0.209 0.117 0.169 6 670432 3 0.078 0.196 0.115 0.056 7 670441 3 0.319 0.380 0.079 0.228 8 670442 3 0.416 0.380 0.114 0.267 9 670451 3 0.100 0.221 0.123 0.086 10 670452 3 0.264 0.454 0.135 -0.124 11 670461 3 0.030 0.143 0.059 0.022 12 670462 3 0.134 0.219 0.178 0.083 13 670471 3 0.071 0.141 0.031 0.203 14 670472 3 0.135 0.190 0.152 0.170 15 670481 3 0.424 0.444 0.219 0.070 16 670482 3 0.613 0.581 0.059 0.202 17 670491 3 0.187 0.148 0.207 0.234 18 670511 3 0.452 0.380 0.234 0.161 19 670512 3 0.075 0.074 0.220 -0.156 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670521 3 0.206 0.090 0.267 0.252 21 670522 3 0.293 0.282 0.223 0.164 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.214 0.250 0.156 0.117 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.156 0.138 0.074 0.112 MEDIAN 3 0.187 0.219 0.147 0.122 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.200 0.235 0.105 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.030 0.074 0.031 -0.156 LOWER HINGE 3 0.093 0.144 0.114 0.070 UPPER HINGE 3 0.293 0.380 0.219 0.202 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.613 0.581 0.302 0.267 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 1.000 0.247 0.480 3.421 0.281 -0.012 2 670412 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.247 0.068 3.342 0.290 -0.014 3 670421 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.284 0.285 3.261 0.315 0.006 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.000 0.250 0.280 2.978 0.276 -0.001 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.267 0.352 2.898 0.297 0.027 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.251 0.386 3.945 0.287 0.004 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.294 0.727 4.259 0.321 0.009 8 670442 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.269 0.116 3.381 0.325 -0.019 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.000 0.225 -0.519 3.654 0.271 -0.001 10 670452 1870 1982 113 1.000 0.237 0.385 3.518 0.273 -0.017 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.198 -0.773 4.696 0.224 0.001 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.197 0.006 2.788 0.228 -0.007 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.230 -0.126 3.707 0.270 -0.002 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.242 -0.136 3.451 0.287 -0.004 15 670481 1824 1982 159 1.000 0.237 0.002 4.127 0.261 0.001 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.255 0.613 4.953 0.276 0.026 17 670491 1816 1982 167 1.000 0.280 0.510 3.594 0.310 -0.011 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.253 0.541 5.666 0.282 -0.011 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.220 0.134 2.874 0.252 -0.014 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.188 -0.278 3.540 0.207 -0.016 21 670522 1805 1982 178 1.000 0.211 0.044 3.325 0.242 -0.017 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.242 0.147 3.685 0.275 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.029 0.376 0.722 0.032 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.247 0.134 3.518 0.276 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.030 0.384 0.619 0.029 0.015 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.188 -0.773 2.788 0.207 -0.019 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.225 0.002 3.325 0.261 -0.014 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.255 0.386 3.945 0.290 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.000 0.294 0.727 5.666 0.325 0.027 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.367 0.105 0.007 0.043 3.925 0.003 0.676 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.003 SERIES 670431 AND 670472 100 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.676 SERIES 670411 AND 670412 175 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.255 0.402 0.461 0.441 0.348 0.293 0.384 SDEV 0.042 0.137 0.130 0.130 0.128 0.146 0.159 SERR 0.024 0.043 0.013 0.012 0.010 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.715 0.900 0.932 0.934 0.915 0.897 0.929 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.992 0.172 -0.200 3.183 0.200 -0.013 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.069 0.036 0.113 58 209 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.41 1.01 1.05 1.46 22.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.85 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.013 0.009 -0.021 -0.067 0.008 0.080 -0.123 -0.022 0.100 0.115 PACF -0.013 0.009 -0.020 -0.067 0.007 0.082 -0.125 -0.031 0.111 0.128 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.126 0.126 0.127 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.001 0.001 -0.070 0.010 0.082 -0.123 -0.024 0.105 0.111 PACF -0.001 0.001 0.001 -0.070 0.009 0.082 -0.124 -0.030 0.111 0.125 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.126 0.126 0.127 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.005 -0.001 0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.992 0.187 -0.279 3.150 0.194 0.194 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.193 0.284 0.305 0.078 0.132 0.168 -0.019 0.038 0.097 0.056 PACF 0.193 0.256 0.238 -0.066 -0.005 0.096 -0.087 -0.046 0.081 0.088 95% C.L. 0.122 0.127 0.136 0.146 0.147 0.148 0.151 0.151 0.151 0.152 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.158 0.082 0.224 0.241 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES