RUN: CO001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CO567X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CO567X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 670 1 Eldora CO, (EK ab 411) DENSITY_MAXIMUM PIPO - 670 2 United States of America ponderosa pine, western yellow pine 2650 39 670 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 670421 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 670452 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1933 1933 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 670461 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 670471 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1950 1950 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 670472 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1878 1878 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 670482 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1842 1842 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 670491 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 0.792 0.084 -0.566 2.988 0.076 0.626 2 670412 1808 1982 175 0.849 0.059 -0.988 3.853 0.062 0.378 3 670421 1756 1982 227 0.715 0.077 0.639 2.661 0.066 0.660 4 670422 1716 1982 267 0.738 0.088 -0.087 2.830 0.076 0.640 5 670431 1883 1982 100 0.814 0.063 -1.145 4.683 0.071 0.405 6 670432 1869 1982 114 0.745 0.068 -0.245 2.636 0.077 0.470 7 670441 1796 1982 187 0.799 0.085 -0.437 2.660 0.070 0.671 8 670442 1802 1982 181 0.847 0.094 -0.876 3.099 0.059 0.771 9 670451 1865 1982 118 0.809 0.052 -1.209 4.762 0.053 0.497 10 670452 1870 1982 113 0.837 0.061 -0.558 2.705 0.061 0.519 11 670461 1794 1982 189 0.700 0.046 -0.589 3.261 0.053 0.494 12 670462 1799 1982 184 0.676 0.061 -0.322 2.790 0.061 0.649 13 670471 1802 1982 181 0.793 0.093 -0.425 2.658 0.075 0.678 14 670472 1809 1982 174 0.748 0.070 0.180 2.895 0.065 0.584 15 670481 1824 1982 159 0.798 0.066 -0.516 2.834 0.057 0.609 16 670482 1803 1982 180 0.733 0.084 0.036 2.227 0.055 0.821 17 670491 1816 1982 167 0.682 0.067 0.315 2.389 0.068 0.595 18 670511 1756 1982 227 0.675 0.066 0.249 2.745 0.069 0.630 19 670512 1893 1982 90 0.688 0.077 0.149 2.378 0.059 0.764 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 0.763 0.061 -1.015 3.999 0.062 0.494 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.778 0.079 -0.446 2.814 0.072 0.632 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1716 TO 1982 267 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 0.761 0.071 -0.374 3.041 0.065 0.599 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.057 0.013 0.511 0.701 0.008 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 0.763 0.068 -0.437 2.814 0.065 0.626 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.083 0.022 0.625 0.440 0.012 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.675 0.046 -1.209 2.227 0.053 0.378 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.715 0.061 -0.589 2.660 0.059 0.497 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 0.799 0.084 0.036 3.099 0.071 0.660 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 0.849 0.094 0.639 4.762 0.077 0.821 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.258 0.211 0.015 -0.035 2.502 -0.239 0.770 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.239 SERIES 670451 AND 670472 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.770 SERIES 670471 AND 670512 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.439 0.264 0.400 0.298 0.151 0.176 0.209 SDEV 0.081 0.145 0.174 0.196 0.196 0.261 0.249 SERR 0.047 0.046 0.017 0.018 0.015 0.018 0.017 EPS 0.852 0.827 0.914 0.883 0.782 0.818 0.847 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 0.777 0.053 0.339 3.442 0.042 0.627 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.564 -0.395 0.379 8 259 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.09 0.61 1.00 1.01 1.62 2.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.09 0.00 0.83 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 178. 28. 90. 159. 187. 267. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.624 0.612 0.590 0.593 0.600 0.535 0.540 0.469 0.485 0.444 PACF 0.624 0.364 0.227 0.195 0.179 0.010 0.059 -0.077 0.024 -0.034 95% C.L. 0.122 0.163 0.195 0.220 0.243 0.264 0.280 0.295 0.306 0.317 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.569 0.188 0.173 0.134 0.176 0.228 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670411 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00085609 0.88078994 2 670412 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049129 0.89231920 3 670421 1 0.21822801 0.01818547 0.00000000 0.66350126 4 670422 1 0.82225716 0.00126587 0.00000000 0.04081376 5 670431 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020024 0.82381213 6 670432 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000976 0.74443877 7 670441 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00080462 0.87419009 8 670442 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00100680 0.93907738 9 670451 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034946 0.82969141 10 670452 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00099582 0.89443594 11 670461 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004332 0.69557220 12 670462 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007720 0.66867429 13 670471 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00120819 0.90224910 14 670472 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027277 0.77189171 15 670481 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016718 0.81173950 16 670482 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00071846 0.79755318 17 670491 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007688 0.68840396 18 670511 1 0.06909331 0.04644940 0.00000000 0.66840023 19 670512 1 0.57106215 0.00539509 0.00000000 0.23685735 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670521 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070099 0.82084846 21 670522 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00023340 0.79852980 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 1.000 0.085 -0.119 2.937 0.076 0.393 2 670412 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.064 -0.829 3.638 0.062 0.243 3 670421 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.075 0.091 2.832 0.066 0.308 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.000 0.075 -0.489 5.795 0.076 0.107 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.077 -1.080 4.528 0.070 0.396 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.091 -0.247 2.635 0.076 0.466 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.092 -0.240 3.121 0.070 0.550 8 670442 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.094 -0.582 3.220 0.058 0.674 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.000 0.063 -1.213 4.812 0.052 0.463 10 670452 1870 1982 113 1.000 0.063 -0.281 2.705 0.060 0.317 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.065 -0.562 3.234 0.052 0.486 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.090 -0.209 2.835 0.061 0.645 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.087 -0.084 3.151 0.074 0.412 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.092 0.200 2.978 0.066 0.559 15 670481 1824 1982 159 1.000 0.082 -0.494 2.869 0.056 0.605 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.104 0.591 2.925 0.055 0.771 17 670491 1816 1982 167 1.000 0.098 0.296 2.395 0.068 0.603 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.096 0.301 2.852 0.069 0.612 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.063 -0.169 2.658 0.059 0.269 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.067 -0.576 3.086 0.062 0.292 21 670522 1805 1982 178 1.000 0.101 -0.423 2.790 0.071 0.620 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.082 -0.291 3.238 0.065 0.466 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.014 0.451 0.826 0.008 0.170 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.085 -0.247 2.937 0.066 0.466 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.025 0.478 0.388 0.011 0.289 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.063 -1.213 2.395 0.052 0.107 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.067 -0.562 2.832 0.059 0.317 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.092 -0.084 3.220 0.070 0.605 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.000 0.104 0.591 5.795 0.076 0.771 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 670411 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 670412 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 670421 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 670422 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 670431 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 670432 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 670441 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 670442 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 670451 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 670452 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 670461 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 670462 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 670471 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 670472 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 670481 -67 106 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 670482 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 670491 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 670511 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 670512 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 670521 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 670522 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 1.000 0.073 -0.251 3.381 0.076 0.185 2 670412 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.061 -0.711 3.702 0.062 0.161 3 670421 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.070 0.022 2.959 0.066 0.207 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.000 0.072 -0.571 6.229 0.076 0.022 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.074 -1.106 4.839 0.070 0.335 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.085 -0.394 2.683 0.076 0.386 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.088 -0.292 3.528 0.070 0.513 8 670442 1802 1982 181 0.999 0.081 -0.817 4.116 0.058 0.559 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.000 0.052 -1.168 5.442 0.052 0.186 10 670452 1870 1982 113 1.000 0.056 -0.308 2.987 0.060 0.167 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.056 -0.500 3.174 0.052 0.321 12 670462 1799 1982 184 0.999 0.067 0.004 3.180 0.061 0.356 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.076 -0.164 3.459 0.074 0.252 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.086 0.065 3.112 0.066 0.496 15 670481 1824 1982 159 1.000 0.067 -0.394 3.376 0.056 0.419 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.095 0.381 2.855 0.055 0.726 17 670491 1816 1982 167 0.999 0.082 0.131 2.422 0.068 0.432 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.093 0.212 2.683 0.069 0.579 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.062 -0.252 2.642 0.059 0.250 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.058 -0.410 3.125 0.062 0.027 21 670522 1805 1982 178 0.999 0.082 -0.703 3.371 0.071 0.404 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.073 -0.344 3.489 0.065 0.333 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.013 0.410 0.953 0.008 0.183 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.073 -0.308 3.180 0.066 0.335 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.020 0.575 0.569 0.011 0.246 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.999 0.052 -1.168 2.422 0.052 0.022 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.062 -0.571 2.959 0.059 0.186 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.082 0.004 3.528 0.070 0.432 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.000 0.095 0.381 6.229 0.076 0.726 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.212 0.138 0.010 -0.201 2.722 -0.180 0.492 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.180 SERIES 670431 AND 670482 100 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.492 SERIES 670441 AND 670442 181 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.240 0.217 0.372 0.311 0.128 0.182 0.226 SDEV 0.123 0.116 0.175 0.172 0.172 0.191 0.218 SERR 0.071 0.037 0.017 0.016 0.013 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.699 0.787 0.905 0.890 0.748 0.824 0.860 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 1.001 0.044 -0.329 3.403 0.041 0.253 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.041 -0.029 0.081 44 223 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.35 1.00 1.06 1.41 17.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.84 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.253 0.207 0.188 0.217 0.214 0.107 0.131 0.055 0.040 0.002 PACF 0.253 0.153 0.115 0.137 0.114 -0.020 0.038 -0.051 -0.040 -0.053 95% C.L. 0.122 0.130 0.135 0.139 0.144 0.148 0.150 0.151 0.152 0.152 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.130 0.162 0.100 0.076 0.120 0.120 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.277 0.242 0.258 0.245 0.225 0.132 0.158 0.111 0.018 -0.002 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.277 2 0.227 0.179 3 0.196 0.140 0.172 4 0.174 0.122 0.147 0.130 5 0.162 0.108 0.135 0.113 0.094 6 0.164 0.111 0.138 0.116 0.097 -0.023 7 0.165 0.107 0.134 0.111 0.093 -0.029 0.036 8 0.166 0.107 0.136 0.113 0.095 -0.027 0.039 -0.017 9 0.164 0.111 0.133 0.122 0.106 -0.014 0.049 -0.001 -0.096 10 0.157 0.110 0.137 0.121 0.114 -0.005 0.059 0.007 -0.084 -0.072 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1223.88 1204.58 1197.88 1191.86 1189.34 1188.99 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1190.85 1192.50 1194.43 1193.94 1194.53 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.162 0.108 0.135 0.113 0.094 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 15.48 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 118.31 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.162 0.134 0.174 0.178 0.178 0.102 0.092 0.086 0.075 0.0621 0.050 0.043 0.037 0.031 0.026 0.022 0.019 0.016 0.014 0.0115 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.0022 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 670411 5 0.062 0.172 0.102 0.032 -0.079 0.082 2 670412 5 0.071 0.124 0.111 0.099 0.059 -0.040 3 670421 5 0.127 0.115 0.107 0.135 0.079 0.141 4 670422 5 0.038 0.003 0.131 0.030 0.075 0.089 5 670431 5 0.174 0.258 0.249 0.038 -0.122 -0.056 6 670432 5 0.211 0.321 0.036 0.188 -0.028 0.087 7 670441 5 0.335 0.343 0.273 0.046 0.028 -0.009 8 670442 5 0.412 0.355 0.249 0.047 -0.027 0.145 9 670451 5 0.100 0.195 -0.071 0.074 0.221 -0.043 10 670452 5 0.055 0.144 0.056 0.120 0.002 0.047 11 670461 5 0.219 0.159 0.139 0.090 0.140 0.167 12 670462 5 0.236 0.204 0.176 0.235 0.021 0.008 13 670471 5 0.088 0.218 0.164 -0.022 -0.038 0.013 14 670472 5 0.267 0.423 0.082 0.085 0.018 0.003 15 670481 5 0.202 0.385 0.074 -0.067 0.088 0.077 16 670482 5 0.579 0.641 -0.004 -0.006 0.317 -0.131 17 670491 5 0.247 0.350 0.071 0.109 -0.035 0.150 18 670511 5 0.355 0.489 0.075 0.099 -0.005 0.024 19 670512 5 0.094 0.261 0.003 -0.167 0.035 0.065 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 670521 5 0.046 0.007 0.027 0.100 0.116 0.024 21 670522 5 0.264 0.237 0.250 0.125 0.007 0.047 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.199 0.257 0.110 0.066 0.042 0.042 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.140 0.155 0.092 0.086 0.099 0.076 MEDIAN 5 0.202 0.237 0.102 0.085 0.021 0.047 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.176 0.191 0.108 0.077 0.106 0.084 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.038 0.003 -0.071 -0.167 -0.122 -0.131 LOWER HINGE 5 0.088 0.159 0.056 0.032 -0.027 0.003 UPPER HINGE 5 0.264 0.350 0.164 0.109 0.079 0.087 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.579 0.641 0.273 0.235 0.317 0.167 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 670411 1777 1982 206 1.000 0.071 -0.159 3.680 0.082 0.006 2 670412 1808 1982 175 1.000 0.059 -0.577 3.615 0.065 -0.005 3 670421 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.066 -0.175 3.292 0.071 -0.008 4 670422 1716 1982 267 1.000 0.071 -0.591 6.457 0.076 -0.001 5 670431 1883 1982 100 1.000 0.067 -1.074 5.503 0.078 -0.003 6 670432 1869 1982 114 1.000 0.076 -0.416 2.665 0.088 0.005 7 670441 1796 1982 187 1.000 0.072 -0.383 4.047 0.080 -0.001 8 670442 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.063 -0.959 5.312 0.067 0.024 9 670451 1865 1982 118 1.000 0.049 -0.897 4.906 0.056 0.002 10 670452 1870 1982 113 1.000 0.055 -0.334 2.797 0.064 0.001 11 670461 1794 1982 189 1.000 0.050 -0.424 3.043 0.056 -0.002 12 670462 1799 1982 184 1.000 0.058 -0.185 3.127 0.066 0.000 13 670471 1802 1982 181 1.000 0.073 -0.221 3.500 0.082 0.001 14 670472 1809 1982 174 1.000 0.074 -0.071 3.380 0.080 -0.001 15 670481 1824 1982 159 1.000 0.060 -0.205 2.881 0.066 0.006 16 670482 1803 1982 180 1.000 0.062 -0.204 3.464 0.068 -0.013 17 670491 1816 1982 167 1.000 0.072 0.259 3.129 0.080 -0.018 18 670511 1756 1982 227 1.000 0.074 0.075 2.681 0.086 0.000 19 670512 1893 1982 90 1.000 0.059 -0.494 2.740 0.065 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 670521 1812 1976 165 1.000 0.057 -0.402 3.164 0.062 0.003 21 670522 1805 1982 178 1.000 0.071 -0.417 3.376 0.079 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.065 -0.374 3.655 0.072 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.008 0.325 1.033 0.010 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.066 -0.383 3.376 0.071 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.013 0.310 0.637 0.015 0.004 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.049 -1.074 2.665 0.056 -0.018 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 1.000 0.059 -0.494 3.043 0.065 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.000 0.072 -0.185 3.680 0.080 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 267 1.000 0.076 0.259 6.457 0.088 0.024 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.232 0.120 0.008 -0.008 2.749 -0.053 0.535 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.053 SERIES 670432 AND 670481 114 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.535 SERIES 670441 AND 670442 181 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.59 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 3. 10. 105. 120. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.146 0.248 0.370 0.295 0.130 0.212 0.265 SDEV 0.166 0.145 0.160 0.155 0.159 0.153 0.183 SERR 0.096 0.046 0.016 0.014 0.012 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.557 0.815 0.904 0.882 0.752 0.849 0.884 NSS 7.3 13.4 16.0 17.9 20.3 21.0 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 1.002 0.040 -0.507 3.825 0.045 -0.064 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.109 -0.072 0.119 45 222 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.33 1.01 1.09 1.43 13.52 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.14 0.00 0.83 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.064 -0.048 -0.038 0.055 0.083 0.015 0.059 -0.025 -0.005 -0.070 PACF -0.064 -0.052 -0.045 0.047 0.086 0.031 0.076 -0.009 -0.008 -0.080 95% C.L. 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.008 -0.001 0.009 0.014 0.031 0.064 -0.017 -0.004 -0.061 PACF -0.002 -0.008 -0.001 0.009 0.014 0.031 0.065 -0.016 -0.004 -0.062 95% C.L. 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.001 -0.003 -0.008 0.000 0.009 0.015 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1716 1982 267 1.002 0.044 -0.435 3.582 0.040 0.279 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.278 0.241 0.260 0.246 0.221 0.168 0.172 0.099 0.075 0.014 PACF 0.278 0.178 0.174 0.130 0.088 0.021 0.039 -0.043 -0.036 -0.084 95% C.L. 0.122 0.131 0.138 0.145 0.151 0.156 0.159 0.161 0.162 0.163 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.158 0.160 0.106 0.137 0.119 0.095 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.21 MINUTES