RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR002E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR002E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 622 1 Troodos (mittel) WIDTH_EARLY PINI - 622 2 Cyprus Austrian pine, black pine 1820 3456-3252 1616 1981 - 622 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 622011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1925 1925 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 622091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1898 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 622092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1897 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 622101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1879 1884 / 1894 1894 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 622102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1876 1876 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 622011 1758 1981 224 0.524 0.262 0.970 3.755 0.268 0.712 2 622012 1771 1981 211 0.453 0.199 0.762 3.063 0.286 0.700 3 622021 1616 1981 366 0.670 0.555 2.626 10.706 0.192 0.943 4 622022 1627 1981 355 0.650 0.404 2.486 11.371 0.169 0.859 5 622031 1877 1981 105 1.199 0.600 1.380 4.344 0.214 0.832 6 622032 1862 1981 120 1.019 0.495 0.994 3.416 0.199 0.840 7 622051 1711 1981 271 0.631 0.232 0.637 3.256 0.235 0.694 8 622052 1699 1981 283 0.592 0.192 0.409 3.835 0.218 0.629 9 622061 1759 1977 219 0.502 0.207 1.046 3.944 0.236 0.703 10 622062 1642 1981 340 0.481 0.209 1.509 6.578 0.218 0.791 11 622071 1657 1981 325 0.463 0.294 1.629 5.678 0.281 0.847 12 622072 1633 1981 349 0.451 0.354 2.577 10.231 0.274 0.865 13 622082 1631 1981 351 0.529 0.318 2.646 10.540 0.203 0.849 14 622091 1623 1981 359 0.491 0.380 2.958 14.519 0.244 0.852 15 622092 1760 1981 222 0.459 0.224 0.990 3.946 0.240 0.792 16 622101 1634 1981 348 0.523 0.421 2.366 8.659 0.205 0.927 17 622102 1633 1981 349 0.606 0.463 2.114 6.835 0.185 0.931 18 622111 1753 1981 229 0.454 0.196 0.434 2.943 0.277 0.735 19 622112 1754 1981 228 0.554 0.277 0.634 3.033 0.303 0.770 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 622121 1747 1981 235 0.375 0.148 1.365 6.294 0.238 0.663 21 622122 1752 1981 230 0.520 0.173 0.927 4.720 0.201 0.678 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1616 TO 1981 366 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 272 0.578 0.314 1.498 6.270 0.233 0.791 STANDARD DEVIATION 78 0.193 0.133 0.828 3.409 0.037 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 271 0.523 0.277 1.365 4.720 0.235 0.792 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.143 0.197 1.439 4.904 0.065 0.150 MINIMUM VALUE 104 0.375 0.148 0.409 2.943 0.169 0.629 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 223 0.463 0.207 0.927 3.755 0.203 0.703 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 348 0.606 0.404 2.366 8.659 0.268 0.852 MAXIMUM VALUE 366 1.199 0.600 2.958 14.519 0.303 0.943 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.280 0.332 0.023 -0.088 2.068 -0.445 0.936 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.445 SERIES 622011 AND 622112 224 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.936 SERIES 622101 AND 622102 348 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.32 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 28. 36. 36. 55. 55. 153. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.677 0.629 0.379 0.309 0.333 0.163 0.108 0.263 0.275 0.188 SDEV 0.127 0.201 0.249 0.208 0.264 0.281 0.239 0.264 0.279 0.284 SERR 0.024 0.034 0.042 0.028 0.036 0.023 0.018 0.020 0.021 0.021 EPS 0.948 0.942 0.866 0.854 0.895 0.787 0.696 0.872 0.884 0.829 NSS 8.8 9.6 10.6 13.1 17.1 19.0 19.0 19.2 20.0 20.9 YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 210. 210. RBAR 0.297 0.314 SDEV 0.257 0.285 SERR 0.018 0.020 EPS 0.899 0.906 NSS 21.0 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1616 1981 366 0.653 0.514 3.102 13.135 0.113 0.966 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.251 0.052 0.186 167 199 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.57 1.17 1.00 1.15 2.31 26.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 271. 125. 105. 224. 349. 366. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.963 0.927 0.888 0.847 0.800 0.755 0.723 0.696 0.675 0.660 PACF 0.963 -0.013 -0.054 -0.041 -0.113 -0.002 0.174 0.046 0.070 0.067 95% C.L. 0.105 0.177 0.224 0.259 0.288 0.311 0.331 0.348 0.362 0.376 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.947 0.883 0.092 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 622011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00310790 0.87182266 2 622012 1 0.58074677 0.02201777 0.00000000 0.33006933 3 622021 1 2.62809229 0.02914391 0.00000000 0.42766768 4 622022 1 2.30035210 0.06064789 0.00000000 0.54591417 5 622031 1 1.72060752 0.02352632 0.00000000 0.56881636 6 622032 1 1.72740674 0.01483881 0.00000000 0.21797955 7 622051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039509 0.57748502 8 622052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027379 0.55278325 9 622061 1 0.66127712 0.09831847 0.00000000 0.47255474 10 622062 1 1.01702213 0.06143883 0.00000000 0.43406007 11 622071 1 1.15817344 0.02630217 0.00000000 0.32952261 12 622072 1 1.68858111 0.03393060 0.00000000 0.31087556 13 622082 1 1.59552503 0.03590269 0.00000000 0.40488344 14 622091 1 2.40879083 0.07214902 0.00000000 0.40202820 15 622092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00128710 0.31742242 16 622101 1 1.78461874 0.02295154 0.00000000 0.29454079 17 622102 1 1.96459484 0.02234221 0.00000000 0.35629019 18 622111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00080500 0.36148587 19 622112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00247693 0.27064613 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 622121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121496 0.51838624 21 622122 1 0.16133270 0.05060958 0.00000000 0.50605339 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 622011 1758 1981 224 1.017 0.331 0.857 5.066 0.267 0.435 2 622012 1771 1981 211 1.000 0.337 0.989 5.317 0.285 0.465 3 622021 1616 1981 366 1.000 0.379 1.021 5.364 0.191 0.814 4 622022 1627 1981 355 1.000 0.404 0.877 3.819 0.167 0.859 5 622031 1877 1981 105 1.002 0.318 0.626 3.422 0.212 0.560 6 622032 1862 1981 120 1.003 0.289 0.805 4.188 0.197 0.587 7 622051 1711 1981 271 1.000 0.363 0.615 3.157 0.234 0.680 8 622052 1699 1981 283 1.000 0.326 0.549 4.249 0.218 0.616 9 622061 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.379 1.088 4.610 0.235 0.650 10 622062 1642 1981 340 1.000 0.334 0.725 3.938 0.217 0.679 11 622071 1657 1981 325 1.001 0.416 1.108 6.331 0.280 0.651 12 622072 1633 1981 349 1.001 0.368 0.365 3.176 0.273 0.587 13 622082 1631 1981 351 1.000 0.247 0.113 2.999 0.203 0.473 14 622091 1623 1981 359 0.999 0.480 0.782 3.245 0.241 0.799 15 622092 1760 1981 222 0.995 0.446 0.958 3.987 0.239 0.782 16 622101 1634 1981 348 1.003 0.325 0.309 2.946 0.204 0.707 17 622102 1633 1981 349 1.003 0.296 0.196 3.173 0.185 0.688 18 622111 1753 1981 229 0.998 0.410 0.320 2.954 0.276 0.708 19 622112 1754 1981 228 0.991 0.411 0.908 3.860 0.301 0.655 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 622121 1747 1981 235 1.001 0.301 0.490 3.554 0.237 0.476 21 622122 1752 1981 230 1.000 0.328 0.983 5.182 0.200 0.686 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 272 1.001 0.357 0.699 4.026 0.232 0.646 STANDARD DEVIATION 78 0.005 0.057 0.305 0.961 0.037 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 271 1.000 0.337 0.782 3.860 0.234 0.655 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.002 0.079 0.468 1.435 0.064 0.120 MINIMUM VALUE 105 0.991 0.247 0.113 2.946 0.167 0.435 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.325 0.490 3.176 0.203 0.587 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 349 1.001 0.404 0.958 4.610 0.267 0.707 MAXIMUM VALUE 366 1.017 0.480 1.108 6.331 0.301 0.859 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 622011 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 622012 -67 141 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 622021 -67 245 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 622022 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 622031 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 622032 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 622051 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 622052 -67 189 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 622061 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 622062 -67 227 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 622071 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 622072 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 622082 -67 235 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 622091 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 622092 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 622101 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 622102 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 622111 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 622112 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 622121 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 622122 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 622011 1758 1981 224 0.997 0.276 0.147 3.620 0.267 0.265 2 622012 1771 1981 211 0.995 0.273 0.065 3.254 0.285 0.227 3 622021 1616 1981 366 0.995 0.295 0.646 3.764 0.191 0.673 4 622022 1627 1981 355 0.992 0.298 0.000 2.952 0.168 0.748 5 622031 1877 1981 105 0.995 0.262 0.162 2.846 0.211 0.389 6 622032 1862 1981 120 0.996 0.245 0.371 3.113 0.196 0.466 7 622051 1711 1981 271 0.995 0.320 0.350 3.079 0.234 0.585 8 622052 1699 1981 283 0.996 0.294 0.363 4.361 0.218 0.547 9 622061 1759 1977 219 0.989 0.320 0.894 4.708 0.234 0.554 10 622062 1642 1981 340 0.998 0.323 0.714 3.782 0.217 0.655 11 622071 1657 1981 325 0.996 0.386 0.871 4.780 0.280 0.594 12 622072 1633 1981 349 0.995 0.351 0.520 3.798 0.273 0.541 13 622082 1631 1981 351 0.999 0.235 0.007 2.957 0.203 0.421 14 622091 1623 1981 359 0.989 0.438 1.193 5.964 0.241 0.755 15 622092 1760 1981 222 0.991 0.365 0.561 4.124 0.239 0.672 16 622101 1634 1981 348 0.992 0.290 0.262 2.997 0.204 0.637 17 622102 1633 1981 349 0.997 0.269 0.152 3.433 0.185 0.624 18 622111 1753 1981 229 0.994 0.375 0.127 2.835 0.276 0.646 19 622112 1754 1981 228 0.995 0.373 0.611 3.294 0.301 0.561 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 622121 1747 1981 235 0.999 0.296 0.463 3.401 0.237 0.468 21 622122 1752 1981 230 0.997 0.307 0.858 5.179 0.200 0.654 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 272 0.995 0.314 0.445 3.726 0.231 0.556 STANDARD DEVIATION 78 0.003 0.051 0.333 0.850 0.037 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 271 0.995 0.298 0.371 3.433 0.234 0.585 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.003 0.075 0.494 1.045 0.064 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 105 0.989 0.235 0.000 2.835 0.168 0.227 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 224 0.994 0.276 0.152 3.079 0.203 0.468 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 349 0.997 0.351 0.646 4.124 0.267 0.654 MAXIMUM VALUE 366 0.999 0.438 1.193 5.964 0.301 0.755 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.233 0.159 0.011 -0.409 3.371 -0.220 0.642 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.220 SERIES 622061 AND 622092 218 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.642 SERIES 622101 AND 622102 348 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.32 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 28. 36. 36. 55. 55. 153. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.261 0.431 0.315 0.375 0.338 0.173 0.111 0.290 0.305 0.171 SDEV 0.254 0.272 0.205 0.191 0.261 0.250 0.221 0.232 0.271 0.263 SERR 0.048 0.045 0.034 0.026 0.035 0.020 0.017 0.018 0.021 0.019 EPS 0.756 0.879 0.830 0.887 0.897 0.799 0.703 0.887 0.898 0.811 NSS 8.8 9.6 10.6 13.1 17.1 19.0 19.0 19.2 20.0 20.9 YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 210. 210. RBAR 0.278 0.301 SDEV 0.230 0.263 SERR 0.016 0.018 EPS 0.890 0.901 NSS 21.0 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1616 1981 366 0.981 0.175 0.056 2.881 0.114 0.687 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.213 0.114 0.136 127 239 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.94 1.00 1.10 2.04 56.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.685 0.521 0.372 0.305 0.194 0.130 0.148 0.142 0.106 0.118 PACF 0.685 0.098 -0.032 0.066 -0.084 -0.009 0.132 0.003 -0.045 0.080 95% C.L. 0.105 0.146 0.165 0.174 0.179 0.182 0.183 0.184 0.185 0.186 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.476 0.620 0.096 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.729 0.547 0.387 0.292 0.168 0.120 0.139 0.126 0.080 0.072 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.729 2 0.704 0.034 3 0.706 0.068 -0.048 4 0.707 0.065 -0.074 0.037 5 0.711 0.057 -0.067 0.113 -0.107 6 0.717 0.051 -0.063 0.109 -0.147 0.056 7 0.710 0.070 -0.077 0.117 -0.154 -0.037 0.130 8 0.715 0.069 -0.083 0.122 -0.157 -0.034 0.156 -0.037 9 0.712 0.079 -0.085 0.112 -0.149 -0.040 0.161 0.009 -0.065 10 0.715 0.078 -0.093 0.113 -0.142 -0.045 0.165 0.006 -0.098 0.046 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2913.68 2638.70 2640.28 2641.44 2642.94 2640.72 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2641.55 2637.32 2638.81 2639.25 2640.48 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.729 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 53.08 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 213.14 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.729 0.531 0.387 0.282 0.205 0.150 0.109 0.079 0.058 0.0421 0.031 0.022 0.016 0.012 0.009 0.006 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.0018 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 622011 1 0.093 0.266 2 622012 1 0.060 0.228 3 622021 1 0.454 0.673 4 622022 1 0.568 0.749 5 622031 1 0.166 0.400 6 622032 1 0.226 0.471 7 622051 1 0.370 0.585 8 622052 1 0.314 0.548 9 622061 1 0.335 0.557 10 622062 1 0.456 0.656 11 622071 1 0.366 0.594 12 622072 1 0.339 0.542 13 622082 1 0.217 0.422 14 622091 1 0.585 0.757 15 622092 1 0.461 0.675 16 622101 1 0.417 0.638 17 622102 1 0.397 0.625 18 622111 1 0.426 0.650 19 622112 1 0.361 0.563 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 622121 1 0.236 0.469 21 622122 1 0.469 0.654 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.348 0.558 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.141 0.141 MEDIAN 1 0.366 0.585 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.218 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.060 0.228 LOWER HINGE 1 0.236 0.471 UPPER HINGE 1 0.454 0.654 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.585 0.757 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 622011 1758 1981 224 1.000 0.264 0.115 3.678 0.300 -0.038 2 622012 1771 1981 211 1.000 0.266 0.052 3.480 0.308 -0.021 3 622021 1616 1981 366 1.000 0.218 0.415 3.799 0.236 -0.017 4 622022 1627 1981 355 1.000 0.198 0.302 3.653 0.230 -0.096 5 622031 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.239 0.440 3.019 0.252 -0.042 6 622032 1862 1981 120 1.000 0.216 0.288 3.397 0.236 0.035 7 622051 1711 1981 271 1.000 0.259 0.234 4.096 0.305 -0.117 8 622052 1699 1981 283 1.000 0.246 0.953 7.479 0.264 -0.075 9 622061 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.265 0.533 5.013 0.312 -0.101 10 622062 1642 1981 340 1.000 0.243 0.399 3.907 0.295 -0.138 11 622071 1657 1981 325 1.001 0.307 0.517 4.434 0.353 -0.075 12 622072 1633 1981 349 1.000 0.294 0.550 3.958 0.343 -0.138 13 622082 1631 1981 351 1.000 0.213 -0.126 3.083 0.253 -0.092 14 622091 1623 1981 359 1.000 0.287 0.907 5.990 0.320 -0.128 15 622092 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.269 0.223 3.973 0.311 -0.066 16 622101 1634 1981 348 1.000 0.224 0.094 3.451 0.262 -0.086 17 622102 1633 1981 349 1.000 0.210 0.173 4.145 0.239 -0.067 18 622111 1753 1981 229 1.000 0.284 0.194 3.041 0.340 -0.059 19 622112 1754 1981 228 1.000 0.308 0.240 3.005 0.385 -0.144 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 622121 1747 1981 235 1.000 0.262 0.497 4.589 0.296 -0.066 21 622122 1752 1981 230 1.000 0.232 0.633 6.163 0.271 -0.171 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 272 1.000 0.253 0.364 4.160 0.291 -0.081 STANDARD DEVIATION 78 0.000 0.033 0.267 1.156 0.043 0.049 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 271 1.000 0.259 0.302 3.907 0.296 -0.075 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.000 0.045 0.324 0.983 0.059 0.059 MINIMUM VALUE 105 1.000 0.198 -0.126 3.005 0.230 -0.171 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 224 1.000 0.224 0.194 3.451 0.253 -0.117 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 349 1.000 0.269 0.517 4.434 0.312 -0.059 MAXIMUM VALUE 366 1.001 0.308 0.953 7.479 0.385 0.035 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.176 0.132 0.009 0.340 2.841 -0.078 0.549 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.078 SERIES 622031 AND 622061 101 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.549 SERIES 622031 AND 622032 105 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.32 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. CORR 28. 36. 36. 55. 55. 153. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.214 0.286 0.246 0.224 0.233 0.095 0.068 0.153 0.190 0.184 SDEV 0.297 0.219 0.193 0.151 0.194 0.238 0.195 0.167 0.157 0.190 SERR 0.056 0.037 0.032 0.020 0.026 0.019 0.015 0.013 0.012 0.014 EPS 0.705 0.794 0.776 0.791 0.838 0.666 0.581 0.776 0.824 0.824 NSS 8.8 9.6 10.6 13.1 17.1 19.0 19.0 19.2 20.0 20.9 YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 210. 210. RBAR 0.223 0.223 SDEV 0.195 0.200 SERR 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.857 0.858 NSS 21.0 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1616 1981 366 0.994 0.122 0.164 3.178 0.129 0.113 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.197 0.126 0.079 139 227 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.81 1.00 1.09 1.90 35.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.85 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.112 0.111 0.020 0.113 -0.023 -0.087 0.027 0.030 -0.040 0.034 PACF 0.112 0.099 -0.002 0.102 -0.048 -0.105 0.055 0.031 -0.050 0.061 95% C.L. 0.105 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.109 0.109 0.109 0.110 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.022 0.101 0.100 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.011 0.099 -0.006 0.116 -0.027 -0.090 0.034 0.033 -0.049 0.038 PACF -0.011 0.099 -0.004 0.108 -0.024 -0.114 0.039 0.042 -0.052 0.056 95% C.L. 0.105 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 -0.011 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1616 1981 366 0.993 0.188 0.003 2.828 0.102 0.766 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.764 0.612 0.465 0.370 0.245 0.161 0.145 0.126 0.099 0.110 PACF 0.764 0.067 -0.054 0.032 -0.110 -0.008 0.119 -0.002 -0.025 0.082 95% C.L. 0.105 0.154 0.179 0.191 0.199 0.202 0.204 0.205 0.206 0.206 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.586 0.765 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES