RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR004E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR004E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 623 1 Plano platres (feucht) WIDTH_EARLY PINI - 623 2 Cyprus Austrian pine, black pine 1600 3454-3254 1742 1981 - 623 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 623021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1892 1892 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 623061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1835 1841 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 623101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1815 1817 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 623111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 623112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1886 1886 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 623122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1889 1893 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 623011 1851 1981 131 1.122 0.468 1.123 4.520 0.268 0.632 2 623012 1841 1981 141 1.279 0.668 0.635 2.949 0.244 0.809 3 623021 1806 1981 176 0.592 0.247 1.341 6.172 0.257 0.695 4 623022 1790 1981 192 1.009 0.464 1.765 6.917 0.178 0.872 5 623031 1795 1981 187 0.955 0.378 0.657 4.432 0.244 0.677 6 623032 1797 1981 185 1.075 0.405 0.874 3.993 0.223 0.699 7 623051 1924 1981 58 1.605 0.478 0.493 3.277 0.219 0.501 8 623052 1929 1981 53 1.399 0.673 1.417 4.429 0.272 0.730 9 623061 1742 1981 240 0.635 0.325 1.628 6.352 0.265 0.765 10 623062 1828 1981 154 0.516 0.252 1.113 4.002 0.275 0.740 11 623071 1911 1981 71 1.048 0.715 1.432 4.489 0.308 0.856 12 623072 1913 1981 69 1.244 0.649 1.355 5.018 0.290 0.719 13 623081 1918 1981 64 1.527 0.527 0.089 2.840 0.263 0.473 14 623082 1915 1981 67 1.181 0.376 0.422 2.990 0.223 0.664 15 623091 1794 1981 188 0.866 0.285 0.739 3.918 0.223 0.637 16 623092 1790 1981 192 1.071 0.405 0.885 3.902 0.182 0.783 17 623101 1759 1981 223 0.867 0.627 1.501 4.684 0.158 0.943 18 623102 1752 1981 230 0.915 0.694 2.623 11.189 0.184 0.909 19 623111 1777 1981 205 0.500 0.223 0.628 3.103 0.249 0.784 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 623112 1762 1981 220 0.559 0.344 1.463 7.155 0.301 0.677 21 623121 1826 1981 156 1.206 0.456 0.451 2.705 0.244 0.706 22 623122 1826 1981 156 1.286 0.477 0.739 3.416 0.209 0.743 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1742 TO 1981 240 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.021 0.461 1.062 4.657 0.240 0.728 STANDARD DEVIATION 61 0.319 0.155 0.573 1.953 0.041 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 165 1.059 0.460 0.999 4.215 0.244 0.724 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.378 0.283 0.798 1.740 0.049 0.107 MINIMUM VALUE 53 0.500 0.223 0.089 2.705 0.158 0.473 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 71 0.866 0.344 0.635 3.277 0.219 0.677 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 192 1.244 0.627 1.432 5.018 0.268 0.784 MAXIMUM VALUE 233 1.605 0.715 2.623 11.189 0.308 0.943 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.378 0.271 0.018 -0.117 1.942 -0.224 0.923 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.224 SERIES 623011 AND 623032 131 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.923 SERIES 623101 AND 623102 223 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 45. 55. 105. 120. 120. 210. RBAR 0.454 0.215 0.348 0.346 0.281 0.397 0.280 SDEV 0.329 0.289 0.222 0.362 0.247 0.295 0.184 SERR 0.134 0.043 0.030 0.035 0.023 0.027 0.013 EPS 0.876 0.774 0.889 0.894 0.869 0.929 0.895 NSS 8.5 12.5 15.1 16.0 16.9 19.8 21.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1981 240 1.023 0.418 2.250 9.723 0.150 0.832 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.544 0.392 0.090 66 174 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.75 1.01 1.08 1.83 19.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 166. 121. 53. 71. 192. 240. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.829 0.737 0.692 0.650 0.632 0.620 0.568 0.551 0.515 0.544 PACF 0.829 0.160 0.154 0.062 0.114 0.080 -0.070 0.074 -0.047 0.216 95% C.L. 0.129 0.199 0.240 0.271 0.296 0.318 0.337 0.353 0.367 0.379 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.724 0.651 0.078 0.162 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 623011 1 1.45739675 0.02081959 0.00000000 0.62769020 2 623012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01287936 2.19365454 3 623021 1 0.91437942 0.08784524 0.00000000 0.53479093 4 623022 1 2.14236689 0.05753930 0.00000000 0.82067192 5 623031 1 1.19527221 0.05393332 0.00000000 0.83931297 6 623032 1 1.27711058 0.04385384 0.00000000 0.92151940 7 623051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01401427 2.01842093 8 623052 1 2.35031891 0.07053035 0.00000000 0.80648452 9 623061 1 1.50470960 0.08412941 0.00000000 0.56746143 10 623062 1 0.56488913 0.01969147 0.00000000 0.34003791 11 623071 1 2.45487189 0.06401997 0.00000000 0.53047401 12 623072 1 2.14573550 0.06770664 0.00000000 0.80473262 13 623081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01456410 1.99989581 14 623082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01104079 1.55687928 15 623091 1 0.90145713 0.00604583 0.00000000 0.32918793 16 623092 1 1.29609752 0.01446368 0.00000000 0.63638675 17 623101 1 2.29249668 0.01770126 0.00000000 0.30502668 18 623102 1 3.17578864 0.03831989 0.00000000 0.56140918 19 623111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00279809 0.78662121 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 623112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00354492 0.95028728 21 623121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00651572 1.71699667 22 623122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00589355 1.74214220 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 623011 1851 1981 131 1.000 0.253 0.340 2.667 0.266 0.162 2 623012 1841 1981 141 1.025 0.388 0.711 3.899 0.243 0.681 3 623021 1806 1981 176 1.000 0.332 0.197 2.670 0.255 0.571 4 623022 1790 1981 192 1.000 0.256 -0.282 3.194 0.177 0.605 5 623031 1795 1981 187 1.000 0.325 -0.091 3.185 0.242 0.595 6 623032 1797 1981 185 0.999 0.287 0.204 3.310 0.221 0.543 7 623051 1924 1981 58 0.998 0.239 -0.279 3.348 0.215 0.378 8 623052 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.244 0.758 3.668 0.264 0.091 9 623061 1742 1981 240 1.000 0.404 1.452 7.794 0.260 0.650 10 623062 1828 1981 154 1.000 0.372 0.208 2.450 0.274 0.612 11 623071 1911 1981 71 1.004 0.419 0.749 3.147 0.303 0.614 12 623072 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.336 0.303 3.045 0.284 0.443 13 623081 1918 1981 64 0.997 0.266 -0.732 4.828 0.258 0.271 14 623082 1915 1981 67 0.997 0.252 0.156 2.616 0.219 0.495 15 623091 1794 1981 188 1.000 0.255 0.225 3.183 0.222 0.443 16 623092 1790 1981 192 1.000 0.224 0.255 3.295 0.181 0.484 17 623101 1759 1981 223 0.996 0.236 0.416 3.541 0.156 0.675 18 623102 1752 1981 230 0.999 0.270 0.707 4.411 0.182 0.675 19 623111 1777 1981 205 0.999 0.288 0.208 3.354 0.248 0.437 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 623112 1762 1981 220 1.017 0.408 0.615 5.186 0.297 0.551 21 623121 1826 1981 156 0.999 0.276 0.115 3.426 0.242 0.483 22 623122 1826 1981 156 1.000 0.280 0.129 4.107 0.207 0.576 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 153 1.001 0.300 0.289 3.651 0.237 0.502 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.007 0.062 0.447 1.154 0.040 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.278 0.217 3.329 0.243 0.547 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.001 0.083 0.485 0.751 0.050 0.170 MINIMUM VALUE 53 0.996 0.224 -0.732 2.450 0.156 0.091 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 71 0.999 0.253 0.129 3.147 0.215 0.443 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.336 0.615 3.899 0.264 0.612 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 1.025 0.419 1.452 7.794 0.303 0.681 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 623011 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 623012 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 623021 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 623022 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 623031 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 623032 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 623051 -67 38 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 623052 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 623061 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 623062 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 623071 -67 47 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 623072 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 623081 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 623082 -67 44 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 623091 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 623092 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 623101 -67 149 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 623102 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 623111 -67 137 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 623112 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 623121 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 623122 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 623011 1851 1981 131 0.999 0.248 0.356 2.760 0.266 0.126 2 623012 1841 1981 141 0.987 0.289 0.443 3.304 0.243 0.441 3 623021 1806 1981 176 0.997 0.322 0.281 2.944 0.255 0.535 4 623022 1790 1981 192 0.997 0.240 -0.324 3.445 0.177 0.555 5 623031 1795 1981 187 0.997 0.319 0.028 3.317 0.242 0.577 6 623032 1797 1981 185 0.995 0.258 0.175 3.340 0.221 0.453 7 623051 1924 1981 58 0.999 0.224 -0.076 3.771 0.213 0.271 8 623052 1929 1981 53 0.998 0.228 0.574 3.234 0.263 -0.011 9 623061 1742 1981 240 0.998 0.344 0.822 6.059 0.260 0.541 10 623062 1828 1981 154 0.997 0.355 0.119 2.385 0.274 0.585 11 623071 1911 1981 71 0.986 0.354 0.490 2.991 0.301 0.510 12 623072 1913 1981 69 0.997 0.322 0.256 3.214 0.284 0.403 13 623081 1918 1981 64 0.997 0.251 -0.824 5.034 0.256 0.083 14 623082 1915 1981 67 0.997 0.221 0.261 2.491 0.219 0.337 15 623091 1794 1981 188 0.997 0.240 0.004 3.005 0.222 0.375 16 623092 1790 1981 192 0.999 0.216 0.065 3.233 0.181 0.453 17 623101 1759 1981 223 0.998 0.220 0.104 3.402 0.156 0.627 18 623102 1752 1981 230 0.999 0.223 0.271 3.970 0.182 0.525 19 623111 1777 1981 205 0.997 0.275 0.096 3.292 0.248 0.393 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 623112 1762 1981 220 0.994 0.369 0.538 5.835 0.298 0.500 21 623121 1826 1981 156 0.998 0.263 0.017 3.579 0.242 0.438 22 623122 1826 1981 156 0.997 0.260 -0.083 4.310 0.207 0.526 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 153 0.996 0.274 0.163 3.587 0.237 0.420 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.003 0.051 0.340 0.955 0.040 0.169 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 166 0.997 0.259 0.147 3.311 0.242 0.453 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.001 0.094 0.339 0.766 0.050 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 53 0.986 0.216 -0.824 2.385 0.156 -0.011 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 71 0.997 0.228 0.017 3.005 0.213 0.375 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 192 0.998 0.322 0.356 3.771 0.263 0.535 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 0.999 0.369 0.822 6.059 0.301 0.627 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.293 0.158 0.010 0.028 2.719 -0.164 0.736 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.164 SERIES 623081 AND 623122 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.736 SERIES 623121 AND 623122 156 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 45. 55. 105. 120. 120. 210. RBAR 0.212 0.204 0.350 0.376 0.300 0.322 0.329 SDEV 0.178 0.243 0.225 0.304 0.225 0.233 0.165 SERR 0.073 0.036 0.030 0.030 0.021 0.021 0.011 EPS 0.696 0.761 0.890 0.906 0.878 0.904 0.915 NSS 8.5 12.5 15.1 16.0 16.9 19.8 21.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1981 240 0.999 0.160 -0.002 3.991 0.134 0.447 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.086 0.055 0.145 73 167 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.83 1.00 1.06 1.89 13.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.445 0.274 0.123 0.113 0.030 0.085 -0.032 -0.084 -0.130 -0.121 PACF 0.445 0.096 -0.038 0.062 -0.049 0.085 -0.112 -0.079 -0.054 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.129 0.153 0.161 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.165 0.167 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.207 0.402 0.097 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.452 0.269 0.151 0.134 0.012 0.085 0.007 -0.093 -0.091 -0.117 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.452 2 0.415 0.082 3 0.414 0.080 0.003 4 0.414 0.075 -0.022 0.061 5 0.420 0.073 -0.014 0.101 -0.096 6 0.431 0.062 -0.013 0.092 -0.144 0.114 7 0.439 0.052 -0.006 0.091 -0.140 0.144 -0.071 8 0.430 0.070 -0.024 0.103 -0.141 0.151 -0.014 -0.129 9 0.431 0.070 -0.026 0.105 -0.142 0.151 -0.015 -0.134 0.011 10 0.432 0.059 -0.027 0.118 -0.154 0.160 -0.017 -0.127 0.048 -0.086 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1750.22 1697.50 1697.90 1699.90 1701.02 1700.77 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1699.65 1700.44 1698.42 1700.39 1700.60 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.452 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 20.39 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 125.61 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.452 0.204 0.092 0.042 0.019 0.008 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 623011 1 0.019 0.127 2 623012 1 0.207 0.442 3 623021 1 0.292 0.536 4 623022 1 0.337 0.556 5 623031 1 0.344 0.579 6 623032 1 0.217 0.457 7 623051 1 0.098 0.283 8 623052 1 0.029 -0.012 9 623061 1 0.349 0.542 10 623062 1 0.360 0.586 11 623071 1 0.286 0.521 12 623072 1 0.189 0.404 13 623081 1 0.009 0.087 14 623082 1 0.129 0.345 15 623091 1 0.158 0.379 16 623092 1 0.237 0.458 17 623101 1 0.402 0.628 18 623102 1 0.275 0.525 19 623111 1 0.167 0.393 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 623112 1 0.284 0.508 21 623121 1 0.196 0.442 22 623122 1 0.290 0.538 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.222 0.424 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.114 0.169 MEDIAN 1 0.227 0.457 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.134 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.009 -0.012 LOWER HINGE 1 0.158 0.379 UPPER HINGE 1 0.292 0.538 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.402 0.628 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 623011 1851 1981 131 1.000 0.246 0.357 2.811 0.286 -0.007 2 623012 1841 1981 141 1.000 0.259 0.415 3.502 0.303 -0.054 3 623021 1806 1981 176 1.000 0.272 0.400 3.076 0.314 -0.045 4 623022 1790 1981 192 1.000 0.199 -0.063 4.490 0.226 -0.112 5 623031 1795 1981 187 1.000 0.260 0.266 3.296 0.298 -0.069 6 623032 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.229 0.404 3.412 0.263 -0.044 7 623051 1924 1981 58 1.000 0.214 0.111 2.998 0.231 0.029 8 623052 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.228 0.586 3.250 0.261 -0.002 9 623061 1742 1981 240 1.001 0.285 0.100 4.969 0.327 -0.141 10 623062 1828 1981 154 1.000 0.287 0.299 3.091 0.347 -0.092 11 623071 1911 1981 71 1.000 0.301 0.433 3.174 0.341 0.073 12 623072 1913 1981 69 1.000 0.294 0.176 3.175 0.322 0.070 13 623081 1918 1981 64 1.000 0.250 -0.964 5.642 0.265 -0.001 14 623082 1915 1981 67 1.000 0.207 0.355 2.650 0.254 -0.040 15 623091 1794 1981 188 1.000 0.222 0.034 3.120 0.254 -0.051 16 623092 1790 1981 192 1.000 0.191 0.162 2.941 0.228 -0.088 17 623101 1759 1981 223 1.000 0.171 0.019 3.068 0.200 -0.067 18 623102 1752 1981 230 1.000 0.189 0.096 3.332 0.212 -0.005 19 623111 1777 1981 205 1.000 0.253 0.241 3.760 0.284 -0.047 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 623112 1762 1981 220 1.003 0.302 0.309 6.100 0.333 -0.046 21 623121 1826 1981 156 1.000 0.235 -0.023 2.889 0.273 0.005 22 623122 1826 1981 156 1.000 0.218 -0.026 3.927 0.259 -0.019 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 153 1.000 0.242 0.168 3.576 0.276 -0.034 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.001 0.038 0.309 0.920 0.043 0.053 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.241 0.209 3.213 0.269 -0.045 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 121 0.000 0.058 0.323 0.692 0.060 0.065 MINIMUM VALUE 53 1.000 0.171 -0.964 2.650 0.200 -0.141 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 71 1.000 0.214 0.034 3.068 0.254 -0.067 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.272 0.357 3.760 0.314 -0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 240 1.003 0.302 0.586 6.100 0.347 0.073 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.304 0.134 0.009 -0.212 3.627 -0.221 0.643 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.221 SERIES 623081 AND 623122 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.643 SERIES 623121 AND 623122 156 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 48.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 6. 45. 55. 105. 120. 120. 210. RBAR 0.142 0.183 0.309 0.369 0.323 0.314 0.327 SDEV 0.330 0.205 0.170 0.215 0.171 0.153 0.150 SERR 0.135 0.031 0.023 0.021 0.016 0.014 0.010 EPS 0.585 0.736 0.871 0.903 0.890 0.901 0.914 NSS 8.5 12.5 15.1 16.0 16.9 19.8 21.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1981 240 1.000 0.143 -0.004 3.657 0.166 -0.058 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.071 0.042 0.134 76 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.41 1.00 1.08 1.49 5.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.88 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.058 0.058 -0.050 0.059 -0.056 0.119 -0.052 -0.045 -0.073 -0.063 PACF -0.058 0.055 -0.044 0.051 -0.046 0.108 -0.032 -0.068 -0.061 -0.083 95% C.L. 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.052 -0.044 0.053 -0.046 0.114 -0.048 -0.053 -0.079 -0.067 PACF 0.003 0.052 -0.044 0.051 -0.043 0.108 -0.043 -0.069 -0.062 -0.078 95% C.L. 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.133 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1981 240 1.000 0.162 0.017 4.192 0.132 0.470 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.468 0.243 0.092 0.077 0.024 0.066 -0.045 -0.106 -0.142 -0.136 PACF 0.468 0.030 -0.041 0.054 -0.033 0.072 -0.124 -0.076 -0.052 -0.050 95% C.L. 0.129 0.155 0.161 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.166 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.220 0.469 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES