RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR005L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR005L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 632 1 Plano platres (trocken) WIDTH_LATE PIBR - 632 2 Cyprus Calabrian pine, brutia pine, see kiefer 1620 3454-3254 1703 1 632 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 632011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 632012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1881 1881 / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 632021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1926 1926 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 632022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1853 1858 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 632031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1853 1857 / 1923 1931 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 632032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1937 1937 / 1978 1978 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 632051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1942 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 632052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1945 1945 / 1951 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 632072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 632081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1945 1945 / 1947 1947 / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 632082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1769 1769 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 632101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1942 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 632131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 632132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 632011 1810 1981 172 0.120 0.056 2.202 11.112 0.329 0.361 2 632012 1804 1981 178 0.154 0.082 1.703 6.414 0.361 0.489 3 632021 1760 1981 222 0.186 0.119 1.428 4.457 0.346 0.676 4 632022 1760 1981 222 0.159 0.095 1.537 5.358 0.329 0.689 5 632031 1711 1981 271 0.210 0.142 1.703 6.227 0.309 0.746 6 632032 1703 1981 279 0.181 0.088 1.658 6.698 0.295 0.574 7 632051 1837 1981 145 0.205 0.136 1.647 6.253 0.358 0.651 8 632052 1821 1981 161 0.224 0.159 2.182 8.416 0.384 0.472 9 632061 1917 1981 65 0.407 0.181 0.587 3.232 0.521 0.097 10 632062 1919 1981 63 0.492 0.298 1.589 5.522 0.448 0.520 11 632071 1834 1981 148 0.248 0.155 1.499 5.807 0.390 0.600 12 632072 1836 1981 146 0.358 0.385 3.910 25.291 0.376 0.588 13 632081 1773 1981 209 0.129 0.077 3.517 21.351 0.364 0.484 14 632082 1755 1942 188 0.110 0.049 1.200 4.561 0.291 0.583 15 632091 1952 1981 30 0.463 0.433 3.713 14.951 0.667 0.248 16 632092 1946 1981 36 0.336 0.217 1.718 6.139 0.632 0.194 17 632101 1887 1981 95 0.134 0.074 2.177 8.153 0.365 0.464 18 632112 1790 1942 153 0.161 0.094 1.726 5.706 0.361 0.463 19 632121 1811 1981 171 0.232 0.140 1.929 7.512 0.388 0.457 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 632122 1867 1981 115 0.273 0.138 1.417 5.205 0.331 0.474 21 632131 1851 1981 131 0.125 0.084 2.268 8.460 0.423 0.365 22 632132 1868 1981 114 0.186 0.164 3.313 15.864 0.383 0.393 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1703 TO 1981 279 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 149 0.232 0.153 2.028 8.759 0.393 0.481 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.112 0.101 0.853 5.678 0.098 0.161 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 0.195 0.137 1.711 6.334 0.364 0.479 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.119 0.080 0.664 2.938 0.059 0.195 MINIMUM VALUE 30 0.110 0.049 0.587 3.232 0.291 0.097 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 0.154 0.084 1.537 5.522 0.331 0.393 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 0.273 0.164 2.202 8.460 0.390 0.588 MAXIMUM VALUE 277 0.492 0.433 3.910 25.291 0.667 0.746 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 227 0.444 0.175 0.012 -0.101 2.671 -0.015 0.905 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.015 SERIES 632061 AND 632091 30 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.905 SERIES 632091 AND 632092 30 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.27 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 10. 15. 36. 66. 105. 136. 120. RBAR 0.473 0.541 0.574 0.658 0.354 0.401 0.436 0.502 SDEV 0.000 0.129 0.152 0.090 0.199 0.197 0.213 0.151 SERR 0.000 0.041 0.039 0.015 0.024 0.019 0.018 0.014 EPS 0.775 0.881 0.922 0.960 0.894 0.920 0.935 0.951 NSS 3.8 6.3 8.8 12.4 15.3 17.2 18.6 19.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1703 1981 279 0.207 0.105 1.372 4.985 0.287 0.636 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.584 0.340 0.015 148 131 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.41 7.38 1.01 1.73 9.11 69.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.98 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 150. 74. 30. 114. 188. 279. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.633 0.582 0.592 0.582 0.490 0.494 0.470 0.503 0.517 0.464 PACF 0.633 0.302 0.263 0.184 -0.028 0.067 0.022 0.143 0.148 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.120 0.161 0.189 0.214 0.235 0.249 0.263 0.275 0.288 0.301 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.531 0.297 0.145 0.192 0.225 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 632011 1 0.38938987 0.32013616 0.00000000 0.11373313 2 632012 1 0.28327483 0.06670050 0.00000000 0.12990135 3 632021 1 0.35345918 0.00902875 0.00000000 0.03371236 4 632022 1 0.28190038 0.01544382 0.00000000 0.07766856 5 632031 1 0.43925288 0.01562317 0.00000000 0.10764829 6 632032 1 0.22532554 0.00851010 0.00000000 0.09514365 7 632051 1 0.40150961 0.03155018 0.00000000 0.11813291 8 632052 1 0.51002258 0.05518302 0.00000000 0.16602001 9 632061 1 0.33622286 0.20909788 0.00000000 0.38452765 10 632062 1 0.84037483 0.09587132 0.00000000 0.35933018 11 632071 1 0.36823255 0.01852049 0.00000000 0.12366593 12 632072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00429117 0.67137170 13 632081 1 0.22463593 0.04712942 0.00000000 0.10576827 14 632082 1 0.12197282 0.04160396 0.00000000 0.09523634 15 632091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01274305 0.66085058 16 632092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00089318 0.31958732 17 632101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00096200 0.17977428 18 632112 1 0.16787861 0.09299253 0.00000000 0.15011351 19 632121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00104889 0.32248503 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 632122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00221250 0.40171626 21 632131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00085197 0.18068220 22 632132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00258236 0.33327368 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 632011 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.400 1.392 5.633 0.330 0.276 2 632012 1804 1981 178 0.999 0.418 1.048 5.024 0.353 0.352 3 632021 1760 1981 222 1.006 0.405 0.945 4.475 0.343 0.356 4 632022 1760 1981 222 1.002 0.368 0.989 3.995 0.326 0.264 5 632031 1711 1981 271 1.002 0.413 1.170 4.575 0.302 0.500 6 632032 1703 1981 279 1.000 0.350 1.292 5.428 0.295 0.318 7 632051 1837 1981 145 1.001 0.482 1.567 6.538 0.359 0.429 8 632052 1821 1981 161 1.001 0.540 1.646 6.693 0.381 0.371 9 632061 1917 1981 65 1.000 0.430 0.510 2.940 0.511 0.031 10 632062 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.460 0.757 3.353 0.442 0.167 11 632071 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.486 0.910 3.304 0.387 0.362 12 632072 1836 1981 146 1.008 0.854 3.849 24.507 0.377 0.487 13 632081 1773 1981 209 1.000 0.433 1.390 5.266 0.369 0.245 14 632082 1755 1942 188 1.000 0.393 1.438 6.518 0.290 0.438 15 632091 1952 1981 30 0.999 0.803 2.734 9.811 0.645 0.181 16 632092 1946 1981 36 1.000 0.647 1.779 6.476 0.615 0.192 17 632101 1887 1981 95 0.997 0.497 2.264 8.751 0.370 0.288 18 632112 1790 1942 153 1.000 0.568 1.949 6.988 0.359 0.446 19 632121 1811 1981 171 0.995 0.536 1.796 6.589 0.386 0.359 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 632122 1867 1981 115 0.999 0.433 2.210 10.779 0.327 0.216 21 632131 1851 1981 131 1.005 0.578 1.776 6.650 0.420 0.317 22 632132 1868 1981 114 1.059 0.729 2.258 8.030 0.375 0.421 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.003 0.510 1.621 6.924 0.389 0.319 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.013 0.139 0.746 4.417 0.092 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.471 1.503 6.497 0.369 0.335 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.002 0.155 0.901 2.413 0.057 0.176 MINIMUM VALUE 30 0.995 0.350 0.510 2.940 0.290 0.031 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.413 1.048 4.575 0.330 0.245 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 188 1.002 0.568 1.949 6.988 0.387 0.421 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.059 0.854 3.849 24.507 0.645 0.500 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 632011 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 632012 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 632021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 632022 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 632031 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 632032 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 632051 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 632052 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 632061 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 632062 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 632071 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 632072 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 632081 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 632082 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 632091 -67 20 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 632092 -67 24 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 632101 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 632112 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 632121 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 632122 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 632131 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 632132 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 632011 1810 1981 172 0.997 0.385 1.386 5.377 0.330 0.247 2 632012 1804 1981 178 0.994 0.389 0.941 4.555 0.353 0.246 3 632021 1760 1981 222 0.995 0.360 0.696 3.822 0.343 0.244 4 632022 1760 1981 222 0.998 0.337 0.814 3.714 0.326 0.174 5 632031 1711 1981 271 0.993 0.373 0.862 3.714 0.302 0.402 6 632032 1703 1981 279 0.999 0.347 1.273 5.348 0.295 0.308 7 632051 1837 1981 145 0.992 0.443 1.310 5.542 0.359 0.368 8 632052 1821 1981 161 0.996 0.468 1.329 5.053 0.381 0.272 9 632061 1917 1981 65 0.997 0.424 0.631 3.185 0.511 -0.015 10 632062 1919 1981 63 0.993 0.448 0.936 3.737 0.441 0.107 11 632071 1834 1981 148 0.996 0.472 0.903 3.306 0.387 0.335 12 632072 1836 1981 146 0.960 0.623 3.629 22.178 0.376 0.343 13 632081 1773 1981 209 0.998 0.427 1.414 5.431 0.369 0.224 14 632082 1755 1942 188 0.997 0.378 1.413 6.470 0.290 0.407 15 632091 1952 1981 30 0.972 0.694 2.206 7.564 0.646 0.110 16 632092 1946 1981 36 0.985 0.571 1.195 4.302 0.618 0.064 17 632101 1887 1981 95 0.994 0.459 2.498 11.608 0.371 0.150 18 632112 1790 1942 153 0.996 0.549 1.876 6.774 0.359 0.423 19 632121 1811 1981 171 0.996 0.511 1.823 6.950 0.386 0.308 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 632122 1867 1981 115 0.996 0.416 2.192 11.021 0.327 0.171 21 632131 1851 1981 131 0.984 0.508 2.090 8.502 0.420 0.170 22 632132 1868 1981 114 0.984 0.588 3.468 17.341 0.376 0.205 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 0.991 0.462 1.586 7.068 0.389 0.239 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.010 0.095 0.826 4.756 0.093 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 0.995 0.445 1.357 5.404 0.370 0.245 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.005 0.127 1.153 3.743 0.057 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 30 0.960 0.337 0.631 3.185 0.290 -0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 0.992 0.385 0.936 3.822 0.330 0.170 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 188 0.997 0.511 2.090 7.564 0.387 0.335 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 0.999 0.694 3.629 22.178 0.646 0.423 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 227 0.444 0.134 0.009 -0.072 3.517 0.044 0.936 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.044 SERIES 632061 AND 632091 30 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.936 SERIES 632091 AND 632092 30 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.27 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 10. 15. 36. 66. 105. 136. 120. RBAR 0.562 0.554 0.571 0.600 0.340 0.427 0.475 0.459 SDEV 0.000 0.110 0.117 0.107 0.197 0.177 0.167 0.181 SERR 0.000 0.035 0.030 0.018 0.024 0.017 0.014 0.017 EPS 0.831 0.886 0.921 0.949 0.887 0.927 0.944 0.943 NSS 3.8 6.3 8.8 12.4 15.3 17.2 18.6 19.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1703 1981 279 0.976 0.298 1.218 5.081 0.275 0.198 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.501 0.228 0.024 77 202 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 1.00 1.00 1.11 2.11 44.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.197 0.046 0.097 0.134 -0.049 -0.100 -0.092 -0.023 -0.021 -0.039 PACF 0.197 0.008 0.090 0.103 -0.102 -0.089 -0.080 0.009 0.021 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.120 0.124 0.125 0.126 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.039 0.198 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.148 0.018 0.067 0.141 -0.047 -0.068 -0.071 -0.011 -0.044 0.003 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.148 2 0.148 -0.004 3 0.149 -0.014 0.066 4 0.140 -0.012 0.048 0.125 5 0.151 -0.008 0.046 0.137 -0.089 6 0.147 -0.001 0.049 0.137 -0.081 -0.055 7 0.143 -0.006 0.059 0.140 -0.081 -0.044 -0.072 8 0.143 -0.007 0.059 0.141 -0.081 -0.044 -0.072 -0.001 9 0.142 -0.008 0.058 0.139 -0.078 -0.043 -0.072 0.001 -0.018 10 0.143 -0.008 0.060 0.141 -0.076 -0.048 -0.074 0.001 -0.023 0.034 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2377.37 2373.23 2375.22 2376.00 2373.61 2373.39 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2374.56 2375.12 2377.12 2379.03 2380.70 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.148 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.18 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.23 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.148 0.022 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 632011 1 0.064 0.249 2 632012 1 0.083 0.250 3 632021 1 0.062 0.248 4 632022 1 0.033 0.175 5 632031 1 0.175 0.405 6 632032 1 0.097 0.311 7 632051 1 0.160 0.369 8 632052 1 0.077 0.274 9 632061 1 0.049 -0.015 10 632062 1 0.073 0.109 11 632071 1 0.126 0.336 12 632072 1 0.125 0.344 13 632081 1 0.058 0.225 14 632082 1 0.170 0.408 15 632091 1 0.183 0.112 16 632092 1 0.212 0.066 17 632101 1 0.042 0.150 18 632112 1 0.198 0.424 19 632121 1 0.096 0.310 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 632122 1 0.031 0.172 21 632131 1 0.036 0.170 22 632132 1 0.043 0.206 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.100 0.241 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.059 0.117 MEDIAN 1 0.080 0.248 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.111 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.031 -0.015 LOWER HINGE 1 0.049 0.170 UPPER HINGE 1 0.160 0.336 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.212 0.424 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 632011 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.373 1.325 5.449 0.371 -0.012 2 632012 1804 1981 178 1.000 0.377 0.909 4.495 0.405 -0.032 3 632021 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.349 0.727 3.840 0.379 -0.005 4 632022 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.332 0.758 3.552 0.355 0.008 5 632031 1711 1981 271 1.000 0.341 0.829 3.939 0.357 -0.045 6 632032 1703 1981 279 1.000 0.330 1.057 4.635 0.344 -0.001 7 632051 1837 1981 145 1.000 0.412 1.277 5.599 0.417 -0.061 8 632052 1821 1981 161 1.000 0.450 1.427 5.525 0.439 -0.012 9 632061 1917 1981 65 1.000 0.424 0.630 3.210 0.505 0.003 10 632062 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.445 1.008 3.784 0.466 -0.027 11 632071 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.445 1.038 3.707 0.459 -0.039 12 632072 1836 1981 146 1.006 0.569 3.182 17.461 0.438 0.062 13 632081 1773 1981 209 1.000 0.416 1.290 5.266 0.411 0.020 14 632082 1755 1942 188 1.000 0.345 1.370 7.001 0.357 -0.027 15 632091 1952 1981 30 1.000 0.690 2.062 7.000 0.656 0.047 16 632092 1946 1981 36 1.000 0.570 1.148 4.048 0.609 0.031 17 632101 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.454 2.708 13.375 0.389 0.021 18 632112 1790 1942 153 1.001 0.495 1.834 7.421 0.454 -0.057 19 632121 1811 1981 171 1.000 0.486 2.001 7.784 0.435 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 632122 1867 1981 115 1.000 0.409 2.437 12.740 0.352 0.006 21 632131 1851 1981 131 1.000 0.500 2.047 8.319 0.454 -0.014 22 632132 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.575 3.266 16.109 0.415 0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.000 0.445 1.560 7.012 0.430 -0.006 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.001 0.094 0.781 4.172 0.079 0.031 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.434 1.307 5.487 0.416 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.123 1.038 3.845 0.083 0.035 MINIMUM VALUE 30 1.000 0.330 0.630 3.210 0.344 -0.061 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.373 1.008 3.939 0.371 -0.027 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.495 2.047 7.784 0.454 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.006 0.690 3.266 17.461 0.656 0.062 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 227 0.478 0.124 0.008 -0.205 3.817 0.057 0.929 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.057 SERIES 632061 AND 632091 30 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.929 SERIES 632091 AND 632092 30 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.27 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 10. 15. 36. 66. 105. 136. 120. RBAR 0.653 0.563 0.609 0.604 0.381 0.491 0.518 0.488 SDEV 0.000 0.094 0.092 0.098 0.148 0.147 0.138 0.164 SERR 0.000 0.030 0.024 0.016 0.018 0.014 0.012 0.015 EPS 0.879 0.890 0.932 0.950 0.904 0.943 0.952 0.949 NSS 3.8 6.3 8.8 12.4 15.3 17.2 18.6 19.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1703 1981 279 0.985 0.297 1.059 4.573 0.325 -0.088 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.509 0.220 0.011 68 211 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.49 1.70 1.01 1.15 2.85 55.84 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.088 -0.056 0.049 0.134 -0.075 -0.067 -0.069 0.007 0.012 -0.037 PACF -0.088 -0.064 0.039 0.140 -0.046 -0.068 -0.104 -0.029 0.028 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 -0.088 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.006 -0.060 0.057 0.133 -0.070 -0.080 -0.075 0.002 0.008 -0.038 PACF -0.006 -0.060 0.057 0.131 -0.063 -0.071 -0.101 -0.018 0.028 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.125 0.125 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.004 -0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1703 1981 279 0.986 0.299 1.191 4.917 0.285 0.133 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.133 -0.029 0.071 0.129 -0.063 -0.098 -0.087 -0.011 -0.001 -0.040 PACF 0.133 -0.047 0.083 0.109 -0.092 -0.075 -0.090 0.001 0.027 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.120 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.020 0.134 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES