RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR005W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR005W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 632 1 Plano platres (trocken) WIDTH_RING PIBR - 632 2 Cyprus Calabrian pine, brutia pine, see kiefer 1620 3454-3254 1703 1 632 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 632011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 632012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1881 1881 / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 632021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1926 1926 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 632031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1853 1857 / 1923 1931 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 632032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1937 1937 / 1978 1978 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 632051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1942 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 632052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1945 1945 / 1951 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 632072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 632081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1945 1945 / 1947 1947 / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 632082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1769 1769 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 632101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1942 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 632131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 632132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 632011 1810 1981 172 0.435 0.166 1.240 6.747 0.240 0.631 2 632012 1804 1981 178 0.526 0.236 1.129 4.615 0.275 0.713 3 632021 1760 1981 222 0.828 0.610 1.054 3.058 0.273 0.883 4 632022 1760 1981 222 0.825 0.536 1.521 4.870 0.250 0.885 5 632031 1711 1981 271 0.682 0.425 1.213 4.224 0.242 0.877 6 632032 1703 1981 279 0.661 0.362 1.504 6.686 0.230 0.844 7 632051 1837 1981 145 0.726 0.417 1.287 4.306 0.242 0.848 8 632052 1821 1981 161 0.870 0.478 1.397 4.911 0.239 0.815 9 632061 1917 1981 65 1.785 0.876 0.853 3.448 0.334 0.720 10 632062 1919 1981 63 1.944 0.961 1.064 4.721 0.329 0.693 11 632071 1834 1981 148 1.016 0.561 0.845 2.961 0.298 0.831 12 632072 1836 1981 146 1.092 0.796 1.207 3.629 0.280 0.865 13 632081 1773 1981 209 0.452 0.210 1.085 4.873 0.311 0.607 14 632082 1755 1942 188 0.401 0.176 1.025 4.338 0.275 0.712 15 632091 1952 1981 30 2.508 0.949 1.329 4.673 0.333 0.226 16 632092 1946 1981 36 1.978 0.658 0.897 3.832 0.307 0.330 17 632101 1887 1981 95 0.444 0.188 0.570 3.488 0.383 0.409 18 632112 1790 1942 153 0.653 0.313 1.332 5.984 0.302 0.702 19 632121 1811 1981 171 0.866 0.460 1.421 5.517 0.298 0.714 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 632122 1867 1981 115 0.755 0.371 1.129 4.356 0.293 0.629 21 632131 1851 1981 131 0.718 0.477 1.546 5.683 0.285 0.819 22 632132 1868 1981 114 1.007 0.790 1.944 6.657 0.318 0.779 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1703 TO 1981 279 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 149 0.962 0.501 1.209 4.708 0.288 0.706 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.572 0.251 0.295 1.126 0.039 0.181 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 0.790 0.469 1.210 4.644 0.289 0.717 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.363 0.345 0.343 1.686 0.061 0.213 MINIMUM VALUE 30 0.401 0.166 0.570 2.961 0.230 0.226 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 0.653 0.313 1.054 3.832 0.250 0.631 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 1.016 0.658 1.397 5.517 0.311 0.844 MAXIMUM VALUE 277 2.508 0.961 1.944 6.747 0.383 0.885 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 227 0.544 0.193 0.013 -0.465 2.881 -0.071 0.924 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.071 SERIES 632022 AND 632091 30 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.924 SERIES 632061 AND 632062 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.27 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 10. 15. 36. 66. 105. 136. 120. RBAR 0.483 0.557 0.549 0.686 0.534 0.588 0.488 0.533 SDEV 0.000 0.205 0.203 0.090 0.220 0.207 0.224 0.180 SERR 0.000 0.065 0.052 0.015 0.027 0.020 0.019 0.016 EPS 0.782 0.887 0.915 0.964 0.946 0.961 0.947 0.957 NSS 3.8 6.3 8.8 12.4 15.3 17.2 18.6 19.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1703 1981 279 0.803 0.369 1.216 4.918 0.199 0.840 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.358 0.210 0.183 123 156 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 3.83 10.77 1.01 1.68 12.45 55.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.18 0.00 0.82 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 150. 74. 30. 114. 188. 279. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.837 0.749 0.722 0.675 0.588 0.564 0.509 0.499 0.509 0.523 PACF 0.837 0.162 0.212 0.022 -0.123 0.108 -0.092 0.164 0.124 0.113 95% C.L. 0.120 0.185 0.225 0.256 0.280 0.297 0.312 0.324 0.335 0.346 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 10 0.790 0.628 -0.036 0.235 0.170 -0.198 0.142 -0.234 0.069 0.050 0.031 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 632011 1 0.97496670 0.25389689 0.00000000 0.41387507 2 632012 1 0.76912975 0.03613569 0.00000000 0.40574047 3 632021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 632022 1 1.82215226 0.01911745 0.00000000 0.40600783 5 632031 1 1.45366752 0.01198252 0.00000000 0.24288011 6 632032 1 1.17855465 0.00775255 0.00000000 0.17757845 7 632051 1 1.47231853 0.04290983 0.00000000 0.49161276 8 632052 1 1.62205255 0.03988582 0.00000000 0.61607385 9 632061 1 2.47296739 0.08084816 0.00000000 1.33547235 10 632062 1 3.01475525 0.11830261 0.00000000 1.56346607 11 632071 1 1.56921244 0.00923017 0.00000000 0.16440836 12 632072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01100228 1.89527047 13 632081 1 0.60284060 0.03172372 0.00000000 0.35798061 14 632082 1 0.53716129 0.05617224 0.00000000 0.35270202 15 632091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05052725 3.29117250 16 632092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00911454 2.14639688 17 632101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00320194 0.59464502 18 632112 1 0.60789371 0.06793928 0.00000000 0.59649211 19 632121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00510080 1.30457520 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 632122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00783043 1.20877349 21 632131 1 1.45943367 0.01256620 0.00000000 0.00267394 22 632132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01537573 1.88530040 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 632011 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.335 0.445 3.575 0.241 0.603 2 632012 1804 1981 178 1.000 0.317 0.292 3.624 0.272 0.512 3 632021 1760 1981 222 0.997 0.299 0.172 3.056 0.272 0.387 4 632022 1760 1981 222 1.004 0.321 0.320 3.374 0.249 0.580 5 632031 1711 1981 271 1.001 0.311 0.477 3.634 0.237 0.554 6 632032 1703 1981 279 0.996 0.314 0.414 3.349 0.229 0.553 7 632051 1837 1981 145 1.000 0.380 0.796 5.242 0.245 0.700 8 632052 1821 1981 161 1.001 0.370 0.577 3.246 0.237 0.665 9 632061 1917 1981 65 1.000 0.386 0.452 3.556 0.330 0.515 10 632062 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.386 0.203 3.758 0.325 0.534 11 632071 1834 1981 148 1.001 0.442 0.514 3.072 0.296 0.700 12 632072 1836 1981 146 1.004 0.541 0.919 3.533 0.277 0.763 13 632081 1773 1981 209 1.000 0.381 0.376 3.164 0.313 0.453 14 632082 1755 1942 188 1.000 0.383 1.041 5.011 0.278 0.586 15 632091 1952 1981 30 1.000 0.307 0.574 4.045 0.320 0.095 16 632092 1946 1981 36 1.000 0.326 0.827 3.821 0.298 0.298 17 632101 1887 1981 95 0.999 0.377 0.370 3.746 0.391 0.211 18 632112 1790 1942 153 1.000 0.476 1.973 9.250 0.301 0.664 19 632121 1811 1981 171 0.995 0.402 1.207 5.186 0.296 0.551 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 632122 1867 1981 115 1.007 0.339 0.930 3.910 0.290 0.323 21 632131 1851 1981 131 1.007 0.449 0.699 3.149 0.281 0.652 22 632132 1868 1981 114 1.119 0.720 1.607 5.366 0.311 0.761 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.006 0.389 0.690 4.076 0.286 0.530 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.025 0.096 0.453 1.360 0.039 0.175 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.378 0.544 3.629 0.285 0.553 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.001 0.081 0.543 0.696 0.062 0.211 MINIMUM VALUE 30 0.995 0.299 0.172 3.056 0.229 0.095 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.321 0.376 3.349 0.249 0.453 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 188 1.001 0.402 0.919 4.045 0.311 0.664 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.119 0.720 1.973 9.250 0.391 0.763 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 632011 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 632012 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 632021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 632022 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 632031 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 632032 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 632051 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 632052 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 632061 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 632062 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 632071 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 632072 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 632081 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 632082 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 632091 -67 20 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 632092 -67 24 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 632101 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 632112 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 632121 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 632122 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 632131 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 632132 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 632011 1810 1981 172 0.999 0.329 0.386 3.236 0.241 0.590 2 632012 1804 1981 178 0.998 0.312 0.354 3.812 0.272 0.492 3 632021 1760 1981 222 0.999 0.295 0.153 3.011 0.272 0.368 4 632022 1760 1981 222 0.998 0.292 0.137 3.055 0.249 0.484 5 632031 1711 1981 271 0.996 0.290 0.288 3.312 0.237 0.498 6 632032 1703 1981 279 0.998 0.306 0.529 3.599 0.229 0.511 7 632051 1837 1981 145 0.993 0.343 0.402 4.537 0.245 0.642 8 632052 1821 1981 161 0.995 0.297 0.086 2.877 0.236 0.535 9 632061 1917 1981 65 0.995 0.372 0.502 3.800 0.330 0.478 10 632062 1919 1981 63 0.994 0.380 0.337 3.815 0.324 0.518 11 632071 1834 1981 148 0.995 0.417 0.418 3.132 0.296 0.674 12 632072 1836 1981 146 0.977 0.426 0.667 3.425 0.276 0.665 13 632081 1773 1981 209 0.997 0.366 0.250 2.938 0.312 0.447 14 632082 1755 1942 188 0.992 0.334 0.971 4.526 0.277 0.462 15 632091 1952 1981 30 0.996 0.292 0.494 3.885 0.315 -0.015 16 632092 1946 1981 36 0.991 0.276 0.880 3.508 0.284 0.153 17 632101 1887 1981 95 0.996 0.362 0.401 3.890 0.392 0.106 18 632112 1790 1942 153 0.997 0.457 1.714 7.982 0.300 0.639 19 632121 1811 1981 171 0.996 0.380 1.150 4.620 0.296 0.495 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 632122 1867 1981 115 0.998 0.325 1.070 4.412 0.290 0.276 21 632131 1851 1981 131 0.992 0.420 0.931 3.917 0.280 0.603 22 632132 1868 1981 114 0.980 0.417 1.553 6.390 0.310 0.523 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 0.994 0.349 0.621 3.985 0.285 0.461 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.006 0.054 0.447 1.188 0.038 0.182 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 0.996 0.339 0.456 3.806 0.282 0.497 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.005 0.083 0.595 1.176 0.061 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 30 0.977 0.276 0.086 2.877 0.229 -0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 0.993 0.297 0.337 3.236 0.249 0.447 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 188 0.998 0.380 0.931 4.412 0.310 0.590 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 0.999 0.457 1.714 7.982 0.392 0.674 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 227 0.496 0.144 0.010 -0.332 3.820 -0.076 0.864 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.076 SERIES 632061 AND 632091 30 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.864 SERIES 632061 AND 632062 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.27 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 10. 15. 36. 66. 105. 136. 120. RBAR 0.747 0.576 0.543 0.596 0.551 0.607 0.494 0.486 SDEV 0.000 0.157 0.150 0.141 0.194 0.164 0.177 0.203 SERR 0.000 0.050 0.039 0.024 0.024 0.016 0.015 0.019 EPS 0.919 0.895 0.913 0.948 0.950 0.964 0.948 0.948 NSS 3.8 6.3 8.8 12.4 15.3 17.2 18.6 19.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1703 1981 279 0.991 0.249 0.418 3.806 0.194 0.526 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.260 0.101 0.092 64 215 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.43 1.07 1.02 1.16 2.23 7.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.524 0.276 0.213 0.172 0.020 -0.063 -0.106 -0.119 -0.109 -0.122 PACF 0.524 0.002 0.093 0.034 -0.137 -0.056 -0.069 -0.031 0.006 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.120 0.149 0.156 0.160 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.166 0.167 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.279 0.528 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.470 0.201 0.165 0.142 0.000 -0.107 -0.128 -0.161 -0.162 -0.132 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.470 2 0.481 -0.025 3 0.484 -0.074 0.103 4 0.480 -0.071 0.085 0.037 5 0.484 -0.061 0.077 0.093 -0.117 6 0.473 -0.052 0.084 0.087 -0.069 -0.099 7 0.467 -0.056 0.089 0.091 -0.072 -0.072 -0.057 8 0.462 -0.063 0.083 0.100 -0.064 -0.077 -0.015 -0.089 9 0.459 -0.063 0.081 0.098 -0.062 -0.075 -0.017 -0.077 -0.026 10 0.459 -0.064 0.081 0.097 -0.062 -0.074 -0.016 -0.078 -0.023 -0.008 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2283.25 2215.76 2217.59 2216.62 2218.25 2216.41 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2215.68 2216.77 2216.52 2218.33 2220.31 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.470 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 22.05 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 128.28 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.470 0.220 0.104 0.049 0.023 0.011 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 632011 1 0.355 0.591 2 632012 1 0.246 0.493 3 632021 1 0.139 0.369 4 632022 1 0.241 0.486 5 632031 1 0.258 0.501 6 632032 1 0.277 0.521 7 632051 1 0.412 0.642 8 632052 1 0.286 0.535 9 632061 1 0.232 0.481 10 632062 1 0.270 0.519 11 632071 1 0.459 0.676 12 632072 1 0.449 0.668 13 632081 1 0.203 0.447 14 632082 1 0.228 0.464 15 632091 1 0.040 -0.016 16 632092 1 0.035 0.160 17 632101 1 0.034 0.106 18 632112 1 0.415 0.644 19 632121 1 0.264 0.506 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 632122 1 0.081 0.283 21 632131 1 0.375 0.605 22 632132 1 0.299 0.524 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.255 0.464 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.129 0.182 MEDIAN 1 0.261 0.504 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.152 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.034 -0.016 LOWER HINGE 1 0.203 0.447 UPPER HINGE 1 0.355 0.591 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.459 0.676 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 632011 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.266 0.195 3.162 0.312 -0.057 2 632012 1804 1981 178 1.000 0.271 0.484 3.437 0.316 -0.028 3 632021 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.274 0.206 2.928 0.318 -0.019 4 632022 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.255 0.316 2.935 0.289 -0.040 5 632031 1711 1981 271 1.000 0.251 0.539 3.871 0.280 -0.045 6 632032 1703 1981 279 1.000 0.260 0.591 3.868 0.275 -0.038 7 632051 1837 1981 145 1.000 0.263 0.627 6.971 0.300 0.016 8 632052 1821 1981 161 1.000 0.251 0.326 3.309 0.289 0.007 9 632061 1917 1981 65 1.000 0.326 0.562 4.188 0.381 0.015 10 632062 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.324 0.603 4.190 0.361 -0.014 11 632071 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.307 0.733 3.595 0.350 -0.045 12 632072 1836 1981 146 1.000 0.316 0.961 5.577 0.345 -0.051 13 632081 1773 1981 209 1.000 0.328 0.517 3.841 0.362 -0.028 14 632082 1755 1942 188 1.000 0.296 0.713 3.748 0.335 -0.056 15 632091 1952 1981 30 1.000 0.292 0.514 3.866 0.313 -0.002 16 632092 1946 1981 36 1.000 0.272 0.900 3.509 0.294 0.015 17 632101 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.360 0.438 3.859 0.397 0.016 18 632112 1790 1942 153 1.000 0.350 0.747 5.804 0.383 0.033 19 632121 1811 1981 171 1.000 0.326 1.038 4.084 0.348 0.041 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 632122 1867 1981 115 1.000 0.311 1.320 5.416 0.322 0.002 21 632131 1851 1981 131 1.000 0.334 0.712 4.028 0.355 0.071 22 632132 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.355 1.434 6.226 0.369 0.096 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.000 0.299 0.658 4.201 0.332 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.000 0.036 0.320 1.093 0.036 0.041 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.301 0.597 3.867 0.329 -0.008 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.060 0.264 0.681 0.062 0.056 MINIMUM VALUE 30 1.000 0.251 0.195 2.928 0.275 -0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.266 0.484 3.509 0.300 -0.040 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.326 0.747 4.190 0.361 0.016 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.360 1.434 6.971 0.397 0.096 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 227 0.538 0.111 0.007 -0.354 3.940 0.177 0.882 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.177 SERIES 632081 AND 632122 115 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.882 SERIES 632091 AND 632092 30 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.27 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 10. 15. 36. 66. 105. 136. 120. RBAR 0.721 0.605 0.469 0.519 0.532 0.618 0.555 0.525 SDEV 0.000 0.123 0.166 0.115 0.124 0.119 0.133 0.143 SERR 0.000 0.039 0.043 0.019 0.015 0.012 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.909 0.905 0.886 0.930 0.946 0.965 0.959 0.956 NSS 3.8 6.3 8.8 12.4 15.3 17.2 18.6 19.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1703 1981 279 0.997 0.207 0.510 3.799 0.229 0.013 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.282 0.108 0.055 74 205 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 1.37 1.00 1.10 2.47 13.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.013 -0.061 0.055 0.146 -0.044 -0.062 -0.054 -0.057 -0.022 -0.037 PACF 0.013 -0.061 0.057 0.141 -0.043 -0.049 -0.075 -0.080 -0.009 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.125 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 -0.062 0.054 0.146 -0.046 -0.060 -0.053 -0.056 -0.021 -0.036 PACF 0.001 -0.062 0.054 0.143 -0.040 -0.048 -0.075 -0.081 -0.010 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.124 0.124 0.124 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.004 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1703 1981 279 0.997 0.235 0.458 3.794 0.194 0.468 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.466 0.210 0.181 0.165 0.005 -0.077 -0.108 -0.117 -0.100 -0.105 PACF 0.466 -0.010 0.110 0.053 -0.135 -0.062 -0.073 -0.042 0.010 -0.034 95% C.L. 0.120 0.143 0.148 0.151 0.153 0.153 0.154 0.155 0.156 0.157 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.220 0.469 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 3.00 MINUTES