RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR005X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR005X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 632 1 Plano platres (trocken) DENSITY_MAXIMUM PIBR - 632 2 Cyprus Calabrian pine, brutia pine, see kiefer 1620 3454-3254 1703 1 632 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 632011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 632012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1881 1881 / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 632021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1926 1926 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 632031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1853 1857 / 1923 1931 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 632032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1937 1937 / 1978 1978 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 632051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1942 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 632052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1945 1945 / 1951 1951 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 632072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 632081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1945 1945 / 1947 1947 / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 632082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1769 1769 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 632101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1942 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 632131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 632132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1947 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 632011 1810 1981 172 0.829 0.086 -0.542 2.881 0.086 0.432 2 632012 1804 1981 178 0.837 0.079 -0.625 3.378 0.067 0.524 3 632021 1760 1981 222 0.845 0.063 -0.927 5.140 0.058 0.423 4 632022 1760 1981 222 0.822 0.056 -0.801 3.581 0.051 0.551 5 632031 1711 1981 271 0.926 0.056 -0.385 2.716 0.042 0.616 6 632032 1703 1981 279 0.932 0.046 -0.908 4.868 0.045 0.287 7 632051 1837 1981 145 0.889 0.076 -1.549 5.963 0.073 0.404 8 632052 1821 1981 161 0.891 0.072 -1.404 4.612 0.048 0.617 9 632061 1917 1981 65 0.847 0.054 -0.257 2.375 0.061 0.257 10 632062 1919 1981 63 0.835 0.045 -0.587 3.281 0.059 0.091 11 632071 1834 1981 148 0.929 0.056 -1.341 7.876 0.048 0.397 12 632072 1836 1981 146 0.921 0.079 -0.719 3.004 0.055 0.630 13 632081 1773 1981 209 0.899 0.080 -0.489 2.523 0.077 0.380 14 632082 1755 1942 188 0.831 0.070 -0.130 2.550 0.075 0.338 15 632091 1952 1981 30 0.882 0.077 -1.485 4.016 0.083 0.085 16 632092 1946 1981 36 0.861 0.081 -1.307 3.974 0.086 0.254 17 632101 1887 1981 95 0.882 0.110 -0.427 2.618 0.084 0.624 18 632112 1790 1942 153 0.945 0.072 -0.813 4.186 0.068 0.288 19 632121 1811 1981 171 0.940 0.064 -1.475 5.561 0.048 0.526 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 632122 1867 1981 115 0.943 0.053 -0.853 3.508 0.044 0.432 21 632131 1851 1981 131 0.823 0.088 -0.237 2.319 0.081 0.510 22 632132 1868 1981 114 0.858 0.077 -0.746 3.323 0.072 0.443 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1703 TO 1981 279 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 149 0.880 0.070 -0.818 3.830 0.064 0.414 STANDARD DEVIATION 66 0.044 0.016 0.439 1.388 0.015 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 0.882 0.072 -0.773 3.443 0.064 0.428 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.090 0.023 0.817 1.895 0.028 0.237 MINIMUM VALUE 30 0.822 0.045 -1.549 2.319 0.042 0.085 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 113 0.837 0.056 -1.307 2.716 0.048 0.288 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 187 0.926 0.079 -0.489 4.612 0.077 0.526 MAXIMUM VALUE 277 0.945 0.110 -0.130 7.876 0.086 0.630 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 227 0.359 0.190 0.013 -0.606 3.591 -0.360 0.795 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.360 SERIES 632061 AND 632112 26 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.795 SERIES 632091 AND 632092 30 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.27 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 10. 15. 36. 66. 105. 136. 120. RBAR 0.332 0.308 0.218 0.309 0.220 0.257 0.276 0.411 SDEV 0.000 0.258 0.156 0.221 0.186 0.188 0.219 0.186 SERR 0.000 0.081 0.040 0.037 0.023 0.018 0.019 0.017 EPS 0.656 0.736 0.710 0.847 0.812 0.856 0.876 0.931 NSS 3.8 6.3 8.8 12.4 15.3 17.2 18.6 19.4 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1703 1981 279 0.899 0.047 -0.859 4.584 0.039 0.512 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.510 -0.305 0.339 18 261 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.31 1.00 1.05 1.36 13.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.85 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 150. 74. 30. 114. 188. 279. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.511 0.408 0.543 0.528 0.468 0.391 0.476 0.472 0.439 0.389 PACF 0.511 0.200 0.386 0.222 0.139 -0.033 0.142 0.069 0.101 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.120 0.148 0.163 0.187 0.207 0.222 0.232 0.245 0.258 0.269 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.472 0.195 -0.013 0.308 0.218 0.151 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 632011 1 0.19786072 0.00825689 0.00000000 0.72254258 2 632012 1 0.17509882 0.02571018 0.00000000 0.79839492 3 632021 1 0.02015539 0.00435093 0.00000000 0.83237344 4 632022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049790 0.87704700 5 632031 1 0.16931458 0.00373622 0.00000000 0.82013434 6 632032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000100 0.93143356 7 632051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061181 0.93215555 8 632052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094601 0.96571428 9 632061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00096678 0.81471151 10 632062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056356 0.81736302 11 632071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038099 0.95703256 12 632072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00115199 1.00500035 13 632081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00071540 0.97222644 14 632082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043181 0.87217939 15 632091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00162625 0.85712641 16 632092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00188417 0.82625395 17 632101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00261856 1.00715148 18 632112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019430 0.95973253 19 632121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048465 0.98179704 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 632122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019135 0.95388103 21 632131 1 0.28378457 0.00716384 0.00000000 0.63876754 22 632132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00109257 0.92035860 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 632011 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.094 -0.297 2.697 0.087 0.291 2 632012 1804 1981 178 1.000 0.082 -0.492 3.821 0.067 0.386 3 632021 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.074 -0.846 5.086 0.058 0.423 4 632022 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.058 -0.225 3.684 0.051 0.340 5 632031 1711 1981 271 1.000 0.050 -0.330 3.188 0.041 0.466 6 632032 1703 1981 279 1.000 0.050 -0.894 4.780 0.045 0.284 7 632051 1837 1981 145 1.000 0.083 -1.419 5.614 0.074 0.351 8 632052 1821 1981 161 1.000 0.069 -0.865 4.266 0.049 0.453 9 632061 1917 1981 65 1.000 0.059 -0.586 3.093 0.060 0.136 10 632062 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.053 -0.579 3.467 0.059 0.038 11 632071 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.059 -1.151 7.175 0.048 0.349 12 632072 1836 1981 146 1.000 0.069 -0.741 4.657 0.055 0.392 13 632081 1773 1981 209 1.000 0.079 -0.144 2.490 0.077 0.224 14 632082 1755 1942 188 1.000 0.080 0.281 2.753 0.075 0.262 15 632091 1952 1981 30 1.000 0.086 -1.614 4.524 0.080 0.036 16 632092 1946 1981 36 1.000 0.091 -1.484 4.692 0.083 0.167 17 632101 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.096 0.032 2.882 0.086 0.343 18 632112 1790 1942 153 1.000 0.076 -0.623 3.890 0.068 0.280 19 632121 1811 1981 171 1.000 0.064 -1.289 5.021 0.048 0.447 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 632122 1867 1981 115 1.000 0.055 -0.793 3.398 0.044 0.419 21 632131 1851 1981 131 1.000 0.090 0.156 2.529 0.080 0.304 22 632132 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.081 -0.266 3.015 0.072 0.299 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.000 0.073 -0.644 3.942 0.064 0.304 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.000 0.015 0.529 1.173 0.015 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.075 -0.605 3.753 0.063 0.322 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.024 0.629 1.677 0.028 0.130 MINIMUM VALUE 30 1.000 0.050 -1.614 2.490 0.041 0.036 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.059 -0.894 3.015 0.049 0.262 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.083 -0.266 4.692 0.077 0.392 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.096 0.281 7.175 0.087 0.466 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 632011 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 632012 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 632021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 632022 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 632031 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 632032 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 632051 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 632052 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 632061 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 632062 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 632071 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 632072 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 632081 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 632082 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 632091 -67 20 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 632092 -67 24 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 632101 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 632112 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 632121 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 632122 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 632131 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 632132 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 632011 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.090 -0.345 2.743 0.087 0.232 2 632012 1804 1981 178 1.000 0.078 -0.549 4.035 0.067 0.330 3 632021 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.070 -0.859 4.946 0.058 0.367 4 632022 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.054 -0.258 3.838 0.051 0.226 5 632031 1711 1981 271 1.000 0.047 -0.399 3.431 0.041 0.382 6 632032 1703 1981 279 1.000 0.046 -0.630 4.423 0.045 0.173 7 632051 1837 1981 145 1.000 0.080 -1.402 5.582 0.074 0.297 8 632052 1821 1981 161 1.000 0.061 -0.626 5.306 0.049 0.315 9 632061 1917 1981 65 1.000 0.057 -0.834 3.436 0.060 0.072 10 632062 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.051 -0.599 3.526 0.059 -0.058 11 632071 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.057 -1.128 6.862 0.048 0.329 12 632072 1836 1981 146 1.000 0.065 -0.904 5.430 0.055 0.336 13 632081 1773 1981 209 1.000 0.076 -0.152 2.618 0.077 0.165 14 632082 1755 1942 188 1.000 0.074 0.479 3.185 0.074 0.148 15 632091 1952 1981 30 1.000 0.078 -1.213 4.045 0.079 -0.112 16 632092 1946 1981 36 1.000 0.083 -1.278 3.630 0.082 0.023 17 632101 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.090 0.115 3.009 0.085 0.251 18 632112 1790 1942 153 1.000 0.075 -0.541 3.657 0.068 0.257 19 632121 1811 1981 171 1.000 0.055 -0.967 4.785 0.048 0.249 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 632122 1867 1981 115 1.000 0.051 -0.671 3.500 0.044 0.309 21 632131 1851 1981 131 1.000 0.081 0.437 3.118 0.080 0.130 22 632132 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.077 -0.173 3.308 0.072 0.230 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.000 0.068 -0.568 4.019 0.064 0.211 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.000 0.014 0.510 1.067 0.015 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.072 -0.612 3.643 0.063 0.241 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.024 0.647 1.477 0.028 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 30 1.000 0.046 -1.402 2.618 0.041 -0.112 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.055 -0.904 3.308 0.049 0.148 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.078 -0.258 4.785 0.077 0.315 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.090 0.479 6.862 0.087 0.382 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 227 0.358 0.145 0.010 -0.233 3.681 -0.183 0.812 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.183 SERIES 632061 AND 632112 26 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.812 SERIES 632091 AND 632092 30 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.27 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 10. 15. 36. 66. 105. 136. 120. RBAR 0.337 0.321 0.233 0.282 0.215 0.257 0.298 0.371 SDEV 0.000 0.244 0.166 0.168 0.177 0.186 0.184 0.175 SERR 0.000 0.077 0.043 0.028 0.022 0.018 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.662 0.748 0.728 0.829 0.807 0.856 0.888 0.920 NSS 3.8 6.3 8.8 12.4 15.3 17.2 18.6 19.4 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1703 1981 279 1.001 0.036 -0.516 5.506 0.036 0.063 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.252 -0.150 0.196 56 223 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.57 1.00 1.03 1.61 76.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.063 -0.156 0.128 0.119 0.005 -0.140 0.079 0.099 0.028 0.009 PACF 0.063 -0.160 0.154 0.074 0.035 -0.139 0.088 0.031 0.084 0.018 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.123 0.125 0.127 0.127 0.129 0.129 0.131 0.131 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.063 0.103 -0.178 0.158 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.087 -0.153 0.141 0.115 0.024 -0.146 0.083 0.123 0.011 0.032 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.087 2 0.102 -0.162 3 0.130 -0.179 0.176 4 0.120 -0.169 0.169 0.058 5 0.117 -0.179 0.179 0.051 0.059 6 0.126 -0.171 0.208 0.022 0.078 -0.162 7 0.145 -0.180 0.205 -0.002 0.097 -0.177 0.116 8 0.141 -0.174 0.202 -0.002 0.091 -0.171 0.111 0.032 9 0.139 -0.182 0.214 -0.009 0.091 -0.186 0.124 0.022 0.073 10 0.136 -0.183 0.210 -0.002 0.088 -0.186 0.116 0.029 0.068 0.037 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1288.41 1288.27 1282.89 1276.09 1277.16 1278.20 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1272.74 1270.97 1272.67 1273.19 1274.81 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.130 -0.179 0.176 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.35 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.79 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.130 -0.163 0.132 0.069 -0.043 0.005 0.021 -0.006 -0.004 0.0042 0.000 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 632011 3 0.124 0.214 0.019 0.161 2 632012 3 0.204 0.257 0.088 0.217 3 632021 3 0.208 0.297 0.177 0.051 4 632022 3 0.079 0.220 -0.013 0.152 5 632031 3 0.218 0.376 -0.076 0.231 6 632032 3 0.062 0.197 -0.081 0.156 7 632051 3 0.107 0.282 0.006 0.108 8 632052 3 0.146 0.293 0.005 0.191 9 632061 3 0.067 0.107 -0.157 0.148 10 632062 3 0.078 -0.038 -0.111 0.232 11 632071 3 0.187 0.284 0.055 0.229 12 632072 3 0.140 0.286 0.124 0.064 13 632081 3 0.028 0.164 0.000 0.035 14 632082 3 0.033 0.153 -0.032 0.093 15 632091 3 0.138 -0.125 -0.243 0.125 16 632092 3 0.175 -0.016 -0.395 -0.131 17 632101 3 0.090 0.257 -0.030 0.127 18 632112 3 0.120 0.255 0.000 0.124 19 632121 3 0.073 0.274 -0.072 0.056 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 632122 3 0.103 0.301 0.001 0.074 21 632131 3 0.036 0.133 -0.014 0.079 22 632132 3 0.075 0.268 -0.105 0.098 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.113 0.202 -0.039 0.119 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.058 0.125 0.121 0.083 MEDIAN 3 0.105 0.256 -0.014 0.124 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.073 0.130 0.088 0.087 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.028 -0.125 -0.395 -0.131 LOWER HINGE 3 0.073 0.153 -0.081 0.074 UPPER HINGE 3 0.146 0.284 0.006 0.161 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.218 0.376 0.177 0.232 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 632011 1810 1981 172 1.000 0.086 -0.294 2.622 0.096 -0.033 2 632012 1804 1981 178 1.000 0.071 -0.403 3.992 0.077 -0.041 3 632021 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.064 -0.658 4.786 0.066 0.002 4 632022 1760 1981 222 1.000 0.052 -0.114 3.549 0.055 -0.014 5 632031 1711 1981 271 1.000 0.042 -0.456 3.316 0.049 -0.041 6 632032 1703 1981 279 1.000 0.045 -0.517 3.959 0.050 -0.007 7 632051 1837 1981 145 1.000 0.076 -1.045 4.718 0.082 -0.010 8 632052 1821 1981 161 1.000 0.057 -0.280 4.695 0.056 0.013 9 632061 1917 1981 65 1.000 0.055 -0.813 3.552 0.061 0.022 10 632062 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.049 -0.648 3.304 0.056 0.010 11 632071 1834 1981 148 1.000 0.052 -1.088 6.442 0.052 0.013 12 632072 1836 1981 146 1.000 0.061 -0.611 6.611 0.063 0.005 13 632081 1773 1981 209 1.000 0.075 -0.178 2.583 0.084 0.000 14 632082 1755 1942 188 1.000 0.072 0.500 3.362 0.080 -0.004 15 632091 1952 1981 30 1.000 0.073 -0.797 3.152 0.075 0.019 16 632092 1946 1981 36 1.000 0.074 -0.949 3.677 0.072 0.028 17 632101 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.086 0.144 2.885 0.094 0.012 18 632112 1790 1942 153 1.000 0.072 -0.377 3.469 0.075 -0.005 19 632121 1811 1981 171 1.000 0.053 -1.088 5.334 0.055 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 632122 1867 1981 115 1.000 0.048 -0.518 3.197 0.051 -0.003 21 632131 1851 1981 131 1.000 0.080 0.525 3.461 0.087 -0.008 22 632132 1868 1981 114 1.000 0.074 -0.017 3.130 0.080 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.000 0.064 -0.440 3.900 0.069 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 67 0.000 0.014 0.459 1.106 0.015 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 150 1.000 0.067 -0.486 3.509 0.069 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.023 0.618 1.498 0.025 0.021 MINIMUM VALUE 30 1.000 0.042 -1.088 2.583 0.049 -0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.052 -0.797 3.197 0.055 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 188 1.000 0.074 -0.178 4.695 0.080 0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 279 1.000 0.086 0.525 6.611 0.096 0.028 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 227 0.373 0.130 0.009 -0.207 3.530 0.020 0.820 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.020 SERIES 632061 AND 632112 26 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.820 SERIES 632091 AND 632092 30 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 98.27 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 38.25 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 10. 15. 36. 66. 105. 136. 120. RBAR 0.294 0.327 0.230 0.305 0.241 0.294 0.319 0.394 SDEV 0.000 0.200 0.174 0.146 0.154 0.171 0.166 0.144 SERR 0.000 0.063 0.045 0.024 0.019 0.017 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.615 0.752 0.725 0.845 0.829 0.877 0.897 0.927 NSS 3.8 6.3 8.8 12.4 15.3 17.2 18.6 19.4 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1703 1981 279 1.001 0.036 -0.301 4.614 0.040 -0.111 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.192 -0.116 0.158 58 221 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.69 1.00 1.05 1.74 168.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.111 -0.196 0.037 0.084 0.019 -0.176 0.074 0.064 0.040 -0.012 PACF -0.111 -0.211 -0.013 0.049 0.045 -0.150 0.045 0.014 0.083 0.034 95% C.L. 0.120 0.121 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.063 -0.140 -0.224 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.010 0.004 0.015 0.021 0.030 -0.135 0.088 0.053 0.073 0.003 PACF -0.010 0.004 0.015 0.021 0.030 -0.135 0.087 0.055 0.077 0.004 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 -0.010 0.004 0.016 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1703 1981 279 1.002 0.036 -0.516 5.363 0.035 0.089 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.089 -0.147 0.129 0.107 -0.018 -0.122 0.088 0.096 0.026 0.012 PACF 0.089 -0.156 0.164 0.054 0.009 -0.123 0.098 0.036 0.079 0.010 95% C.L. 0.120 0.121 0.123 0.125 0.126 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.130 0.130 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.065 0.134 -0.179 0.168 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES