RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR006E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR006E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 625 1 Ceadar Valley (feucht) WIDTH_EARLY CEBR - 625 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1200 3459-3241 1869 1981 - 625 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 625032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1927 1930 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 625052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1916 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 1.054 0.860 2.622 10.209 0.284 0.828 2 625012 1927 1981 55 1.339 0.818 2.592 11.451 0.307 0.524 3 625021 1905 1981 77 1.686 0.698 0.487 2.861 0.327 0.483 4 625022 1873 1981 109 1.175 0.659 0.888 3.609 0.432 0.573 5 625031 1881 1981 101 0.757 0.451 2.304 10.816 0.355 0.559 6 625032 1869 1981 113 0.864 0.650 2.248 8.506 0.371 0.748 7 625041 1877 1981 105 0.710 0.487 1.272 4.066 0.476 0.604 8 625042 1880 1981 102 0.550 0.384 2.759 13.310 0.427 0.528 9 625051 1888 1981 94 1.187 0.800 1.181 4.630 0.376 0.707 10 625052 1880 1981 102 0.933 0.713 1.328 4.834 0.367 0.739 11 625061 1885 1981 97 1.429 0.740 0.583 3.138 0.267 0.755 12 625062 1877 1981 105 1.357 0.765 1.087 4.277 0.300 0.671 13 625071 1905 1981 77 1.584 0.671 0.727 3.727 0.249 0.688 14 625072 1905 1981 77 1.806 0.822 1.151 3.518 0.256 0.740 15 625081 1897 1981 85 1.146 0.376 0.514 3.032 0.257 0.543 16 625082 1887 1981 95 0.833 0.409 0.627 2.953 0.279 0.794 17 625091 1920 1981 62 1.138 0.540 1.166 3.924 0.257 0.750 18 625092 1900 1981 82 1.385 0.419 0.016 2.798 0.213 0.672 19 625101 1943 1981 39 1.974 1.015 0.650 4.267 0.432 0.531 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 1.563 0.958 0.902 3.264 0.444 0.618 21 625111 1919 1981 63 1.059 0.277 0.157 3.109 0.160 0.613 22 625112 1920 1981 62 1.408 0.573 1.118 3.880 0.140 0.861 23 625121 1914 1981 68 1.489 0.419 0.203 2.697 0.186 0.640 24 625122 1918 1981 64 1.314 0.547 0.195 2.751 0.199 0.845 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1869 TO 1981 113 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.239 0.627 1.116 5.068 0.307 0.667 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.358 0.199 0.820 3.176 0.095 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 1.251 0.655 0.995 3.803 0.292 0.672 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 37 0.465 0.347 0.752 1.662 0.121 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.550 0.277 0.016 2.697 0.140 0.483 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.994 0.435 0.548 3.071 0.253 0.566 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 1.459 0.782 1.300 4.732 0.374 0.749 MAXIMUM VALUE 109 1.974 1.015 2.759 13.310 0.476 0.861 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.209 0.246 0.015 -0.333 2.840 -0.517 0.817 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.517 SERIES 625051 AND 625102 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.817 SERIES 625031 AND 625032 101 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.256 0.214 SDEV 0.236 0.236 SERR 0.035 0.016 EPS 0.862 0.862 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 1.192 0.408 1.310 5.142 0.236 0.514 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.484 0.298 0.254 39 74 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.35 1.00 1.11 1.46 3.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 80. 38. 38. 64. 102. 113. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.510 0.503 0.313 0.206 0.201 0.130 0.124 0.198 0.087 0.023 PACF 0.510 0.329 -0.040 -0.088 0.094 0.012 -0.002 0.163 -0.092 -0.179 95% C.L. 0.188 0.232 0.268 0.281 0.286 0.291 0.293 0.295 0.299 0.300 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.349 0.338 0.339 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 625011 1 1.99023950 0.02558233 0.00000000 0.19581980 2 625012 1 7.70031500 0.66655499 0.00000000 1.19133043 3 625021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051711 1.66567671 4 625022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00164359 1.26571870 5 625031 1 1.61642098 0.05560103 0.00000000 0.47804311 6 625032 1 1.69694912 0.02442090 0.00000000 0.28618491 7 625041 1 1.25009179 0.01840736 0.00000000 0.16221429 8 625042 1 0.94430745 0.04570751 0.00000000 0.35421485 9 625051 1 1.98080337 0.07438237 0.00000000 0.91417068 10 625052 1 2.22248411 0.07734019 0.00000000 0.65736663 11 625061 1 2.22549438 0.09218616 0.00000000 1.19121253 12 625062 1 2.64519787 0.12130436 0.00000000 1.16152203 13 625071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00368737 1.44034863 14 625072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00781692 1.50137389 15 625081 1 0.24877685 0.00856056 0.00000000 0.96978354 16 625082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036310 0.85069203 17 625091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02093904 0.47800106 18 625092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00495521 1.17960250 19 625101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01008097 1.77248311 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 625102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01501806 1.27056897 21 625111 1 1.09664452 0.01289003 0.00000000 0.31297454 22 625112 1 2.02371860 0.05303041 0.00000000 0.83095586 23 625121 1 0.91200149 0.11198042 0.00000000 1.37554502 24 625122 1 1.32198846 0.07470197 0.00000000 1.05029881 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 1.010 0.625 2.402 8.780 0.281 0.699 2 625012 1927 1981 55 1.000 0.443 0.779 2.964 0.288 0.611 3 625021 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.414 0.500 2.883 0.323 0.477 4 625022 1873 1981 109 1.000 0.553 0.860 3.668 0.428 0.564 5 625031 1881 1981 101 0.999 0.301 0.038 2.677 0.350 0.091 6 625032 1869 1981 113 1.004 0.431 0.532 3.377 0.368 0.525 7 625041 1877 1981 105 0.998 0.504 0.407 2.482 0.471 0.448 8 625042 1880 1981 102 1.001 0.435 0.610 3.688 0.423 0.310 9 625051 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.634 1.532 6.632 0.374 0.670 10 625052 1880 1981 102 0.999 0.666 1.133 3.666 0.366 0.769 11 625061 1885 1981 97 1.000 0.459 0.421 2.968 0.263 0.760 12 625062 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.504 1.325 6.647 0.298 0.638 13 625071 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.433 1.036 4.548 0.246 0.701 14 625072 1905 1981 77 0.999 0.439 1.136 3.662 0.252 0.717 15 625081 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.324 0.462 3.041 0.255 0.534 16 625082 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.490 0.616 2.925 0.276 0.785 17 625091 1920 1981 62 1.026 0.441 2.609 11.201 0.254 0.643 18 625092 1900 1981 82 0.999 0.288 -0.054 2.974 0.210 0.606 19 625101 1943 1981 39 0.999 0.519 0.686 4.118 0.421 0.504 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 1.001 0.604 0.752 2.850 0.431 0.592 21 625111 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.215 0.403 2.403 0.156 0.514 22 625112 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.193 0.212 3.090 0.136 0.612 23 625121 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.255 0.027 2.532 0.183 0.561 24 625122 1918 1981 64 0.999 0.356 -0.116 2.776 0.195 0.793 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.001 0.439 0.763 4.023 0.302 0.588 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.006 0.130 0.686 2.174 0.094 0.158 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.440 0.613 3.066 0.285 0.609 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.001 0.171 0.680 1.037 0.122 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.998 0.193 -0.116 2.403 0.136 0.091 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.999 0.340 0.405 2.866 0.249 0.519 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.511 1.084 3.903 0.371 0.700 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 1.026 0.666 2.609 11.201 0.471 0.793 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 625011 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 625012 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 625021 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 625022 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 625031 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 625032 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 625041 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 625042 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 625051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 625052 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 625061 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 625062 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 625071 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 625072 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 625081 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 625082 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 625091 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 625092 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 625101 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 625102 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 625111 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 625112 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 625121 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 625122 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 0.973 0.509 2.778 10.828 0.280 0.626 2 625012 1927 1981 55 0.991 0.388 0.563 2.405 0.284 0.549 3 625021 1905 1981 77 0.994 0.355 0.120 2.865 0.323 0.397 4 625022 1873 1981 109 0.989 0.497 0.542 2.771 0.428 0.487 5 625031 1881 1981 101 0.999 0.289 0.065 3.018 0.349 0.005 6 625032 1869 1981 113 0.996 0.407 0.358 3.282 0.367 0.484 7 625041 1877 1981 105 0.994 0.482 0.353 2.436 0.471 0.363 8 625042 1880 1981 102 0.998 0.419 0.471 3.365 0.423 0.246 9 625051 1888 1981 94 0.994 0.611 1.332 5.579 0.373 0.668 10 625052 1880 1981 102 0.992 0.643 1.060 3.524 0.364 0.764 11 625061 1885 1981 97 0.980 0.393 0.394 3.074 0.263 0.671 12 625062 1877 1981 105 0.996 0.484 1.227 6.760 0.298 0.621 13 625071 1905 1981 77 0.986 0.362 1.156 4.909 0.248 0.572 14 625072 1905 1981 77 0.981 0.330 0.760 2.849 0.250 0.553 15 625081 1897 1981 85 0.996 0.305 0.484 3.179 0.254 0.461 16 625082 1887 1981 95 0.994 0.360 0.194 2.871 0.275 0.487 17 625091 1920 1981 62 0.995 0.286 0.712 3.170 0.252 0.414 18 625092 1900 1981 82 0.994 0.221 0.462 5.053 0.209 0.234 19 625101 1943 1981 39 0.989 0.450 0.372 3.891 0.421 0.391 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 0.973 0.534 0.495 2.357 0.429 0.506 21 625111 1919 1981 63 0.997 0.198 0.287 2.227 0.155 0.446 22 625112 1920 1981 62 0.998 0.173 -0.104 2.923 0.135 0.532 23 625121 1914 1981 68 0.997 0.230 -0.149 2.668 0.182 0.490 24 625122 1918 1981 64 0.990 0.317 -0.217 2.930 0.192 0.732 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 0.991 0.385 0.571 3.706 0.301 0.487 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.007 0.125 0.625 1.879 0.094 0.169 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 0.994 0.375 0.466 3.046 0.282 0.488 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.007 0.186 0.495 0.897 0.121 0.191 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.973 0.173 -0.217 2.227 0.135 0.005 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.989 0.297 0.240 2.810 0.249 0.406 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 0.996 0.483 0.736 3.707 0.370 0.596 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 0.999 0.643 2.778 10.828 0.471 0.764 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.194 0.195 0.012 -0.755 3.957 -0.527 0.594 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.527 SERIES 625052 AND 625122 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.594 SERIES 625061 AND 625081 85 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.269 0.177 SDEV 0.216 0.227 SERR 0.032 0.016 EPS 0.870 0.832 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.957 0.244 0.318 3.090 0.246 0.295 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.355 0.176 0.149 41 72 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 0.71 1.01 1.14 1.85 88.51 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.292 0.183 0.004 0.028 -0.028 -0.103 -0.079 -0.015 -0.068 -0.154 PACF 0.292 0.107 -0.083 0.031 -0.032 -0.107 -0.015 0.043 -0.078 -0.139 95% C.L. 0.188 0.204 0.209 0.209 0.209 0.210 0.211 0.212 0.212 0.213 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.096 0.293 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.293 0.128 0.003 0.059 -0.003 -0.087 -0.078 -0.090 -0.076 -0.184 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.293 2 0.280 0.046 3 0.282 0.060 -0.050 4 0.286 0.055 -0.071 0.072 5 0.289 0.053 -0.069 0.082 -0.036 6 0.285 0.061 -0.076 0.088 -0.008 -0.098 7 0.283 0.061 -0.074 0.086 -0.006 -0.092 -0.021 8 0.282 0.056 -0.074 0.091 -0.010 -0.089 -0.005 -0.056 9 0.280 0.055 -0.077 0.090 -0.007 -0.092 -0.003 -0.045 -0.039 10 0.274 0.049 -0.078 0.077 -0.008 -0.078 -0.015 -0.037 0.003 -0.150 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 818.14 809.97 811.74 813.45 814.86 816.71 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 817.61 819.56 821.20 823.04 822.48 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.293 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.61 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.42 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.293 0.086 0.025 0.007 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 625011 1 0.450 0.632 2 625012 1 0.340 0.557 3 625021 1 0.158 0.397 4 625022 1 0.286 0.495 5 625031 1 0.002 0.005 6 625032 1 0.284 0.488 7 625041 1 0.157 0.363 8 625042 1 0.110 0.250 9 625051 1 0.450 0.671 10 625052 1 0.590 0.768 11 625061 1 0.478 0.675 12 625062 1 0.388 0.622 13 625071 1 0.350 0.592 14 625072 1 0.311 0.555 15 625081 1 0.223 0.470 16 625082 1 0.270 0.517 17 625091 1 0.183 0.415 18 625092 1 0.063 0.251 19 625101 1 0.288 0.396 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 625102 1 0.405 0.510 21 625111 1 0.211 0.459 22 625112 1 0.294 0.535 23 625121 1 0.272 0.497 24 625122 1 0.587 0.764 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.298 0.495 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.150 0.171 MEDIAN 1 0.287 0.504 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.200 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.002 0.005 LOWER HINGE 1 0.197 0.406 UPPER HINGE 1 0.396 0.607 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.590 0.768 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.393 2.351 10.151 0.328 0.177 2 625012 1927 1981 55 1.000 0.322 0.573 2.483 0.319 0.122 3 625021 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.326 -0.093 3.230 0.382 0.009 4 625022 1873 1981 109 1.000 0.430 0.248 2.982 0.516 -0.119 5 625031 1881 1981 101 1.000 0.289 0.069 3.021 0.350 0.000 6 625032 1869 1981 113 1.000 0.355 0.550 3.220 0.436 -0.118 7 625041 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.449 0.324 2.667 0.549 -0.061 8 625042 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.406 0.558 3.798 0.462 -0.059 9 625051 1888 1981 94 1.001 0.451 1.355 6.871 0.442 0.006 10 625052 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.411 0.979 4.569 0.454 0.039 11 625061 1885 1981 97 1.000 0.290 0.575 3.789 0.339 -0.133 12 625062 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.379 1.793 10.134 0.388 0.024 13 625071 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.292 1.063 4.838 0.309 0.014 14 625072 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.274 0.638 3.799 0.307 0.032 15 625081 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.268 0.378 3.243 0.298 -0.033 16 625082 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.305 0.197 3.361 0.336 -0.041 17 625091 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.260 0.478 3.127 0.290 0.042 18 625092 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.213 0.582 5.065 0.227 -0.009 19 625101 1943 1981 39 1.000 0.413 0.715 3.148 0.403 0.148 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 1.000 0.459 0.415 2.486 0.481 0.225 21 625111 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.175 0.441 2.523 0.183 0.008 22 625112 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.146 0.121 3.117 0.154 0.057 23 625121 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.199 0.363 2.867 0.209 0.093 24 625122 1918 1981 64 1.000 0.202 0.722 4.262 0.213 0.071 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.000 0.321 0.641 4.115 0.349 0.021 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.094 0.550 2.106 0.106 0.090 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.314 0.554 3.236 0.337 0.011 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.144 0.375 1.414 0.145 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.146 -0.093 2.483 0.154 -0.133 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.264 0.343 3.002 0.294 -0.037 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.409 0.718 4.415 0.439 0.064 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 1.001 0.459 2.351 10.151 0.549 0.225 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.264 0.145 0.009 -0.443 3.736 -0.256 0.636 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.256 SERIES 625051 AND 625102 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.636 SERIES 625121 AND 625122 64 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.314 0.256 SDEV 0.200 0.164 SERR 0.030 0.011 EPS 0.892 0.888 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.980 0.222 -0.149 2.770 0.296 -0.239 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.361 0.175 0.087 45 68 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.84 1.01 1.08 1.92 6.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.237 0.094 -0.118 0.051 -0.008 -0.054 -0.077 0.092 -0.038 -0.121 PACF -0.237 0.040 -0.092 0.001 0.015 -0.070 -0.107 0.064 -0.010 -0.168 95% C.L. 0.188 0.198 0.200 0.202 0.203 0.203 0.203 0.204 0.206 0.206 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.058 -0.237 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.010 0.015 -0.095 0.025 -0.011 -0.082 -0.076 0.074 -0.050 -0.136 PACF 0.010 0.015 -0.096 0.027 -0.009 -0.093 -0.070 0.078 -0.067 -0.153 95% C.L. 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.190 0.190 0.190 0.191 0.192 0.193 0.194 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.980 0.226 0.274 3.069 0.223 0.302 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.299 0.077 -0.059 -0.003 -0.035 -0.103 -0.088 0.015 -0.080 -0.148 PACF 0.299 -0.013 -0.087 0.044 -0.043 -0.099 -0.025 0.060 -0.126 -0.116 95% C.L. 0.188 0.204 0.205 0.206 0.206 0.206 0.208 0.209 0.209 0.210 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.090 0.300 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES