RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR006L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR006L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 625 1 Ceadar Valley (feucht) WIDTH_LATE CEBR - 625 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1200 3459-3241 1869 1981 - 625 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 625032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1927 1930 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 625052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1916 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 0.707 0.692 2.274 7.543 0.352 0.738 2 625012 1927 1981 55 1.049 0.761 1.792 6.768 0.486 0.499 3 625021 1905 1981 77 1.193 0.658 1.285 5.236 0.425 0.492 4 625022 1873 1981 109 0.569 0.297 0.986 3.931 0.379 0.559 5 625031 1881 1981 101 0.720 0.419 0.613 2.170 0.321 0.739 6 625032 1869 1981 113 0.632 0.388 0.701 2.747 0.354 0.763 7 625041 1877 1981 105 0.591 0.301 0.843 3.513 0.380 0.492 8 625042 1880 1981 102 0.660 0.357 2.158 8.238 0.376 0.228 9 625051 1888 1981 94 0.711 0.445 0.763 2.906 0.405 0.572 10 625052 1880 1981 102 0.487 0.339 1.058 3.596 0.383 0.719 11 625061 1885 1981 97 0.895 0.542 1.645 7.411 0.346 0.548 12 625062 1877 1981 105 0.878 0.469 1.556 7.000 0.337 0.580 13 625071 1905 1981 77 1.131 0.529 1.034 4.200 0.337 0.663 14 625072 1905 1981 77 1.005 0.455 1.599 6.273 0.317 0.512 15 625081 1897 1981 85 1.147 0.543 0.795 3.643 0.343 0.636 16 625082 1887 1981 95 0.874 0.521 0.516 2.676 0.282 0.789 17 625091 1920 1981 62 1.560 0.980 1.045 2.894 0.326 0.784 18 625092 1900 1981 82 1.107 0.477 1.156 5.554 0.312 0.490 19 625101 1943 1981 39 1.729 1.123 1.094 4.163 0.543 0.379 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 0.779 0.558 2.280 7.351 0.533 0.423 21 625111 1919 1981 63 0.466 0.182 0.465 2.826 0.297 0.581 22 625112 1920 1981 62 1.372 0.988 1.303 3.570 0.290 0.786 23 625121 1914 1981 68 1.233 0.606 0.789 3.489 0.326 0.636 24 625122 1918 1981 64 1.357 0.822 1.050 3.713 0.367 0.633 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1869 TO 1981 113 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 0.952 0.561 1.200 4.642 0.367 0.593 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.342 0.236 0.531 1.875 0.069 0.143 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 0.887 0.525 1.054 3.822 0.349 0.581 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 37 0.487 0.272 0.785 3.323 0.058 0.233 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.466 0.182 0.465 2.170 0.282 0.228 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.684 0.403 0.792 3.198 0.323 0.496 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 1.170 0.675 1.577 6.521 0.382 0.729 MAXIMUM VALUE 109 1.729 1.123 2.280 8.238 0.543 0.789 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.174 0.222 0.013 -0.085 2.643 -0.382 0.769 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.382 SERIES 625082 AND 625091 62 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.769 SERIES 625082 AND 625112 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.143 0.160 SDEV 0.215 0.224 SERR 0.032 0.015 EPS 0.752 0.813 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.837 0.207 -0.222 2.949 0.221 0.433 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.464 0.461 0.085 50 63 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.50 0.80 1.01 1.17 1.97 6.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 80. 38. 38. 64. 102. 113. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.429 0.178 0.129 0.111 0.132 0.177 0.250 0.227 0.040 -0.007 PACF 0.429 -0.008 0.068 0.040 0.077 0.104 0.156 0.063 -0.136 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.188 0.220 0.225 0.228 0.230 0.232 0.237 0.246 0.253 0.254 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.193 0.439 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 625011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01752143 1.39047849 2 625012 1 6.07836533 0.70814538 0.00000000 0.94163561 3 625021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00508938 1.39186263 4 625022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00372607 0.36424056 5 625031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01121060 1.29174054 6 625032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00875208 1.13053596 7 625041 1 0.74160737 0.03173791 0.00000000 0.37974623 8 625042 1 0.66187513 0.22857766 0.00000000 0.63492858 9 625051 1 0.49519879 0.05178656 0.00000000 0.61313796 10 625052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00583203 0.78785509 11 625061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00290816 0.75296390 12 625062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00450974 1.11739743 13 625071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00589989 1.36074507 14 625072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00616042 0.76467872 15 625081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040786 1.12975633 16 625082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01483525 1.58588135 17 625091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03707411 0.39168167 18 625092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00240289 1.00686538 19 625101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03632591 1.00245607 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 625102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01163366 0.55209106 21 625111 1 0.50498110 0.01728017 0.00000000 0.16068113 22 625112 1 3.34956026 0.06537798 0.00000000 0.58587509 23 625121 1 1.23332453 0.12496514 0.00000000 1.09656537 24 625122 1 2.08388352 0.08902703 0.00000000 1.00850749 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 1.211 1.078 2.315 8.344 0.349 0.745 2 625012 1927 1981 55 1.000 0.642 1.409 5.145 0.474 0.536 3 625021 1905 1981 77 0.999 0.523 0.962 4.242 0.420 0.451 4 625022 1873 1981 109 0.996 0.474 0.750 2.816 0.375 0.470 5 625031 1881 1981 101 1.037 0.457 1.581 6.715 0.318 0.419 6 625032 1869 1981 113 1.041 0.611 4.184 28.963 0.363 0.479 7 625041 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.424 0.991 5.607 0.377 0.281 8 625042 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.507 1.784 6.764 0.370 0.291 9 625051 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.642 1.221 4.366 0.401 0.533 10 625052 1880 1981 102 1.008 0.604 1.028 3.682 0.386 0.680 11 625061 1885 1981 97 1.002 0.580 1.294 6.024 0.342 0.541 12 625062 1877 1981 105 0.997 0.536 2.147 9.895 0.334 0.532 13 625071 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.437 0.605 3.095 0.333 0.582 14 625072 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.401 0.921 4.276 0.313 0.433 15 625081 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.472 0.771 3.552 0.339 0.628 16 625082 1887 1981 95 1.021 0.459 1.417 5.627 0.277 0.578 17 625091 1920 1981 62 1.072 0.694 2.857 11.490 0.321 0.703 18 625092 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.411 0.889 5.228 0.309 0.462 19 625101 1943 1981 39 0.983 0.594 1.366 5.429 0.531 0.245 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 1.000 0.637 1.596 5.365 0.521 0.357 21 625111 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.345 0.381 2.493 0.290 0.503 22 625112 1920 1981 62 0.995 0.370 0.475 3.427 0.282 0.533 23 625121 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.465 0.749 3.321 0.322 0.588 24 625122 1918 1981 64 1.000 0.528 1.154 5.209 0.359 0.465 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.015 0.537 1.369 6.295 0.363 0.501 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.046 0.149 0.843 5.295 0.067 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.515 1.188 5.219 0.346 0.518 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.005 0.161 0.758 2.753 0.062 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.983 0.345 0.381 2.493 0.277 0.245 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.447 0.830 3.617 0.320 0.442 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 1.005 0.608 1.589 6.370 0.382 0.580 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 1.211 1.078 4.184 28.963 0.531 0.745 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 625011 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 625012 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 625021 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 625022 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 625031 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 625032 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 625041 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 625042 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 625051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 625052 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 625061 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 625062 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 625071 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 625072 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 625081 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 625082 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 625091 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 625092 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 625101 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 625102 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 625111 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 625112 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 625121 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 625122 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 0.967 0.568 1.737 5.409 0.344 0.557 2 625012 1927 1981 55 0.984 0.600 1.434 5.399 0.468 0.498 3 625021 1905 1981 77 0.988 0.480 0.780 3.363 0.420 0.408 4 625022 1873 1981 109 0.996 0.462 0.903 3.301 0.375 0.415 5 625031 1881 1981 101 0.997 0.402 1.689 7.394 0.317 0.335 6 625032 1869 1981 113 0.992 0.430 1.323 6.817 0.362 0.411 7 625041 1877 1981 105 0.998 0.416 0.928 5.251 0.377 0.262 8 625042 1880 1981 102 0.997 0.482 1.698 6.373 0.370 0.223 9 625051 1888 1981 94 0.991 0.620 1.062 3.481 0.400 0.570 10 625052 1880 1981 102 0.989 0.574 0.982 3.501 0.385 0.657 11 625061 1885 1981 97 0.981 0.520 2.200 12.746 0.342 0.410 12 625062 1877 1981 105 0.996 0.473 1.607 7.708 0.335 0.479 13 625071 1905 1981 77 0.988 0.393 0.334 2.817 0.330 0.517 14 625072 1905 1981 77 0.994 0.364 0.561 3.556 0.313 0.369 15 625081 1897 1981 85 0.979 0.391 0.581 3.850 0.337 0.479 16 625082 1887 1981 95 0.988 0.360 0.759 4.528 0.277 0.457 17 625091 1920 1981 62 0.990 0.352 0.236 2.525 0.323 0.372 18 625092 1900 1981 82 0.986 0.358 1.082 6.007 0.307 0.361 19 625101 1943 1981 39 0.992 0.444 0.493 3.493 0.526 -0.064 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 0.989 0.602 1.464 5.454 0.517 0.278 21 625111 1919 1981 63 0.991 0.308 0.313 2.627 0.289 0.407 22 625112 1920 1981 62 0.995 0.333 -0.066 2.945 0.281 0.451 23 625121 1914 1981 68 0.993 0.406 0.305 2.300 0.318 0.546 24 625122 1918 1981 64 0.986 0.485 0.936 4.255 0.354 0.442 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 0.989 0.451 0.972 4.796 0.361 0.410 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.007 0.091 0.578 2.317 0.066 0.143 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 0.991 0.437 0.932 4.052 0.343 0.413 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.008 0.125 0.922 2.399 0.064 0.124 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.967 0.308 -0.066 2.300 0.277 -0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.987 0.378 0.527 3.332 0.317 0.365 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 0.995 0.502 1.449 5.731 0.381 0.489 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 0.998 0.620 2.200 12.746 0.526 0.657 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.173 0.167 0.010 -0.205 2.598 -0.340 0.578 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.340 SERIES 625052 AND 625122 64 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.578 SERIES 625091 AND 625092 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.110 0.141 SDEV 0.185 0.200 SERR 0.028 0.014 EPS 0.692 0.790 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.952 0.206 -0.474 3.244 0.207 0.337 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.393 0.242 0.112 52 61 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 1.15 1.00 1.11 2.26 5.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.334 -0.034 -0.176 -0.140 -0.090 0.028 0.099 0.105 -0.033 -0.106 PACF 0.334 -0.164 -0.124 -0.044 -0.059 0.049 0.047 0.041 -0.085 -0.046 95% C.L. 0.188 0.208 0.208 0.213 0.217 0.218 0.218 0.220 0.221 0.222 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.150 0.389 -0.165 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.310 -0.043 -0.201 -0.135 -0.121 0.031 0.108 0.092 -0.043 0.032 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.310 2 0.357 -0.153 3 0.333 -0.097 -0.157 4 0.329 -0.100 -0.147 -0.027 5 0.326 -0.116 -0.158 0.009 -0.110 6 0.333 -0.117 -0.148 0.017 -0.132 0.067 7 0.330 -0.110 -0.149 0.024 -0.126 0.051 0.048 8 0.330 -0.111 -0.148 0.023 -0.125 0.052 0.046 0.008 9 0.330 -0.107 -0.144 0.014 -0.123 0.041 0.038 0.032 -0.072 10 0.338 -0.111 -0.148 0.010 -0.109 0.039 0.054 0.044 -0.109 0.111 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 836.84 827.45 826.76 825.96 827.87 828.51 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 830.00 831.73 833.72 835.13 835.72 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.333 -0.097 -0.157 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 13.88 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 116.11 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.333 0.014 -0.184 -0.115 -0.022 0.033 0.031 0.011 -0.005 -.0074 -0.004 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 625011 3 0.351 0.611 -0.122 0.084 2 625012 3 0.396 0.592 -0.162 -0.210 3 625021 3 0.224 0.485 -0.194 0.068 4 625022 3 0.203 0.500 -0.198 0.042 5 625031 3 0.115 0.343 -0.012 -0.033 6 625032 3 0.197 0.372 0.076 0.039 7 625041 3 0.091 0.250 0.096 -0.091 8 625042 3 0.120 0.215 0.185 -0.173 9 625051 3 0.386 0.683 -0.167 0.047 10 625052 3 0.499 0.684 -0.087 0.075 11 625061 3 0.178 0.398 0.048 -0.029 12 625062 3 0.333 0.478 0.184 -0.359 13 625071 3 0.292 0.541 -0.036 0.039 14 625072 3 0.222 0.388 -0.020 -0.266 15 625081 3 0.277 0.409 0.045 0.164 16 625082 3 0.273 0.408 0.269 -0.181 17 625091 3 0.165 0.416 -0.094 -0.092 18 625092 3 0.159 0.413 -0.128 -0.058 19 625101 3 0.207 -0.134 -0.378 -0.120 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 625102 3 0.210 0.275 -0.071 -0.317 21 625111 3 0.189 0.452 -0.119 0.122 22 625112 3 0.273 0.374 0.296 -0.140 23 625121 3 0.390 0.674 -0.212 -0.110 24 625122 3 0.233 0.540 -0.207 0.103 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.249 0.432 -0.042 -0.058 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.102 0.177 0.166 0.143 MEDIAN 3 0.223 0.414 -0.079 -0.046 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.129 0.167 0.226 0.214 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.091 -0.134 -0.378 -0.359 LOWER HINGE 3 0.184 0.373 -0.165 -0.157 UPPER HINGE 3 0.313 0.540 0.062 0.057 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.499 0.684 0.296 0.164 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.465 2.142 9.157 0.411 0.015 2 625012 1927 1981 55 1.000 0.483 1.273 4.282 0.488 -0.052 3 625021 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.431 0.805 3.821 0.443 0.013 4 625022 1873 1981 109 1.000 0.412 0.838 3.986 0.459 -0.003 5 625031 1881 1981 101 1.000 0.379 1.381 5.483 0.364 -0.001 6 625032 1869 1981 113 1.000 0.390 1.674 9.385 0.402 0.008 7 625041 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.399 0.699 4.628 0.437 -0.009 8 625042 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.456 1.849 7.375 0.424 -0.024 9 625051 1888 1981 94 1.002 0.486 0.950 4.669 0.524 0.045 10 625052 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.431 1.057 4.660 0.446 0.025 11 625061 1885 1981 97 1.000 0.473 2.836 17.001 0.386 -0.001 12 625062 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.388 1.286 6.250 0.398 0.027 13 625071 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.332 0.223 2.376 0.377 0.015 14 625072 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.322 0.496 3.075 0.352 -0.019 15 625081 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.335 0.656 3.955 0.371 0.023 16 625082 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.307 0.944 4.678 0.313 0.001 17 625091 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.322 0.730 3.128 0.349 -0.003 18 625092 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.328 1.658 8.088 0.325 -0.004 19 625101 1943 1981 39 1.000 0.408 0.318 3.691 0.483 -0.036 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 1.000 0.540 1.298 5.248 0.593 -0.031 21 625111 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.277 0.343 2.551 0.323 0.006 22 625112 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.285 -0.046 2.991 0.342 0.014 23 625121 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.322 0.118 3.007 0.373 -0.019 24 625122 1918 1981 64 1.004 0.412 1.039 6.099 0.396 0.044 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.000 0.391 1.024 5.399 0.407 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.001 0.071 0.680 3.157 0.068 0.024 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.394 0.947 4.644 0.397 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.118 0.763 2.765 0.086 0.028 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.277 -0.046 2.376 0.313 -0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.325 0.576 3.409 0.358 -0.014 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.444 1.340 6.174 0.444 0.015 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 1.004 0.540 2.836 17.001 0.593 0.045 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.187 0.138 0.008 0.248 2.776 -0.146 0.581 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.146 SERIES 625031 AND 625102 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.581 SERIES 625071 AND 625072 77 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.140 0.173 SDEV 0.140 0.174 SERR 0.021 0.012 EPS 0.747 0.827 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.970 0.185 -0.153 2.907 0.225 -0.059 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.371 0.221 0.081 51 62 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.46 0.82 1.01 1.20 2.02 10.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.059 -0.148 -0.073 -0.030 -0.065 0.010 0.095 0.108 -0.097 -0.051 PACF -0.059 -0.152 -0.095 -0.068 -0.103 -0.029 0.060 0.108 -0.063 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.188 0.189 0.193 0.194 0.194 0.195 0.195 0.196 0.198 0.200 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.007 -0.020 -0.021 -0.068 -0.070 0.014 0.081 0.095 -0.101 -0.070 PACF -0.007 -0.020 -0.022 -0.068 -0.072 0.009 0.076 0.092 -0.107 -0.073 95% C.L. 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.189 0.190 0.190 0.191 0.193 0.195 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.006 -0.007 -0.020 -0.022 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.970 0.199 -0.322 2.972 0.195 0.323 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.320 -0.055 -0.256 -0.227 -0.108 0.074 0.175 0.142 -0.052 -0.112 PACF 0.320 -0.176 -0.205 -0.096 -0.050 0.058 0.073 0.032 -0.100 -0.002 95% C.L. 0.188 0.207 0.207 0.218 0.226 0.228 0.229 0.234 0.237 0.237 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.177 0.340 -0.097 -0.209 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES