RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR006N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR006N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 625 1 Ceadar Valley (feucht) DENSITY_MINIMUM CEBR - 625 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1200 3459-3241 1869 1981 - 625 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 625011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1935 1939 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 625022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1895 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 625032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1927 1930 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 625041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1910 1914 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 625052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1916 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 625062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 2 GAPS / 1894 1900 / 1936 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 625072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1957 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 625081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1927 1931 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 625082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1931 1935 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 625091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1936 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 625122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1957 1962 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 0.393 0.036 0.134 3.302 0.045 0.800 2 625012 1927 1981 55 0.375 0.027 2.349 10.909 0.053 0.181 3 625021 1905 1981 77 0.355 0.028 1.033 4.733 0.056 0.442 4 625022 1873 1981 109 0.370 0.031 1.216 4.941 0.059 0.481 5 625031 1881 1981 101 0.416 0.030 0.723 3.193 0.045 0.700 6 625032 1869 1981 113 0.413 0.024 0.484 2.499 0.045 0.482 7 625041 1877 1981 105 0.416 0.039 0.216 2.482 0.063 0.570 8 625042 1880 1981 102 0.418 0.043 0.506 4.430 0.080 0.358 9 625051 1888 1981 94 0.366 0.031 0.628 2.999 0.048 0.660 10 625052 1880 1981 102 0.375 0.034 1.520 6.591 0.053 0.654 11 625061 1885 1981 97 0.320 0.023 0.079 2.498 0.046 0.674 12 625062 1877 1981 105 0.355 0.031 0.117 2.665 0.046 0.750 13 625071 1905 1981 77 0.379 0.032 0.946 4.309 0.043 0.782 14 625072 1905 1981 77 0.366 0.024 0.038 3.410 0.052 0.493 15 625081 1897 1981 85 0.402 0.025 -0.534 2.847 0.048 0.492 16 625082 1887 1981 95 0.423 0.038 0.527 2.883 0.039 0.823 17 625091 1920 1981 62 0.411 0.021 -0.415 2.978 0.038 0.439 18 625092 1900 1981 82 0.398 0.027 3.733 24.050 0.045 0.313 19 625101 1943 1981 39 0.376 0.028 1.451 7.446 0.063 0.403 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 0.368 0.034 0.786 5.274 0.068 0.572 21 625111 1919 1981 63 0.356 0.021 -0.114 3.649 0.043 0.508 22 625112 1920 1981 62 0.392 0.022 -0.731 5.058 0.036 0.569 23 625121 1914 1981 68 0.403 0.018 -0.239 3.653 0.044 0.298 24 625122 1918 1981 64 0.401 0.018 0.178 2.832 0.043 0.077 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1869 TO 1981 113 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 79 0.385 0.028 0.610 4.985 0.050 0.522 STANDARD DEVIATION 20 0.026 0.007 0.975 4.500 0.010 0.193 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 78 0.386 0.028 0.495 3.530 0.046 0.500 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.040 0.009 0.931 2.134 0.011 0.246 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.320 0.018 -0.731 2.482 0.036 0.077 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 62 0.367 0.024 0.058 2.865 0.043 0.421 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 98 0.407 0.033 0.990 4.999 0.055 0.667 MAXIMUM VALUE 109 0.423 0.043 3.733 24.050 0.080 0.823 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.203 0.233 0.014 -0.385 2.836 -0.465 0.723 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.465 SERIES 625041 AND 625082 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.723 SERIES 625041 AND 625042 102 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.126 0.212 SDEV 0.325 0.203 SERR 0.048 0.014 EPS 0.724 0.860 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.386 0.019 1.611 7.103 0.032 0.488 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.387 -0.227 0.125 22 91 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.27 1.00 1.07 1.34 1.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 80. 38. 38. 64. 102. 113. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.484 0.382 0.358 0.314 0.281 0.222 0.060 0.201 0.268 0.174 PACF 0.484 0.193 0.157 0.082 0.056 -0.005 -0.181 0.183 0.173 -0.032 95% C.L. 0.188 0.228 0.250 0.267 0.280 0.290 0.296 0.296 0.301 0.309 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.359 0.307 0.173 0.250 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 625011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00125294 0.34358925 2 625012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038889 0.36420202 3 625021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035911 0.34053999 4 625022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004952 0.36862093 5 625031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00077787 0.37626931 6 625032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015125 0.40412134 7 625041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00077012 0.37322640 8 625042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00086966 0.37344787 9 625051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00073005 0.33096087 10 625052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040556 0.35366261 11 625061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056754 0.29260311 12 625062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00061783 0.32388458 13 625071 1 0.08425401 0.11572666 0.00000000 0.36991397 14 625072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00054890 0.34586772 15 625081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006227 0.39925313 16 625082 1 0.08653853 0.02809896 0.00000000 0.39097321 17 625091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048346 0.39399883 18 625092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001861 0.39869919 19 625101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00064372 0.36327937 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 625102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031185 0.36155051 21 625111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040611 0.34256017 22 625112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00073758 0.36918563 23 625121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026549 0.39422300 24 625122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028583 0.39319065 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.053 1.030 6.188 0.045 0.387 2 625012 1927 1981 55 1.000 0.070 3.197 16.599 0.053 0.133 3 625021 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.074 0.944 4.445 0.056 0.375 4 625022 1873 1981 109 1.000 0.082 1.155 4.913 0.058 0.471 5 625031 1881 1981 101 1.000 0.045 0.267 3.913 0.044 0.285 6 625032 1869 1981 113 1.000 0.057 0.610 2.635 0.045 0.447 7 625041 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.078 0.801 3.960 0.061 0.392 8 625042 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.086 2.671 15.621 0.080 0.009 9 625051 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.064 0.457 4.414 0.047 0.418 10 625052 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.082 1.266 6.424 0.052 0.597 11 625061 1885 1981 97 1.000 0.054 0.311 3.612 0.045 0.402 12 625062 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.067 -0.279 3.384 0.045 0.627 13 625071 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.070 0.020 2.907 0.043 0.665 14 625072 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.056 0.039 3.254 0.049 0.266 15 625081 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.060 -0.557 3.030 0.047 0.463 16 625082 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.073 0.241 3.010 0.041 0.707 17 625091 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.046 0.300 3.399 0.036 0.420 18 625092 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.067 3.774 24.381 0.044 0.309 19 625101 1943 1981 39 1.000 0.072 2.083 9.910 0.062 0.358 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 1.000 0.094 0.980 5.583 0.066 0.555 21 625111 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.055 0.452 4.049 0.042 0.462 22 625112 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.046 -1.558 7.613 0.036 0.342 23 625121 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.042 -0.042 3.358 0.043 0.238 24 625122 1918 1981 64 1.000 0.042 0.751 3.858 0.040 0.030 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.000 0.064 0.788 6.269 0.049 0.390 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.015 1.180 5.336 0.010 0.177 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.065 0.533 4.004 0.045 0.397 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.020 0.952 2.934 0.011 0.170 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.042 -1.558 2.635 0.036 0.009 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.053 0.140 3.371 0.043 0.297 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.073 1.093 6.306 0.054 0.467 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 1.000 0.094 3.774 24.381 0.080 0.707 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 625011 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 625012 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 625021 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 625022 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 625031 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 625032 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 625041 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 625042 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 625051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 625052 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 625061 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 625062 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 625071 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 625072 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 625081 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 625082 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 625091 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 625092 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 625101 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 625102 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 625111 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 625112 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 625121 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 625122 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.048 1.000 5.714 0.045 0.277 2 625012 1927 1981 55 1.000 0.064 2.577 13.032 0.053 0.010 3 625021 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.072 0.967 4.556 0.056 0.346 4 625022 1873 1981 109 1.000 0.068 0.922 4.620 0.058 0.284 5 625031 1881 1981 101 1.000 0.042 0.376 4.397 0.044 0.170 6 625032 1869 1981 113 1.000 0.053 0.447 2.390 0.045 0.371 7 625041 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.070 0.893 3.697 0.061 0.256 8 625042 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.083 2.890 17.011 0.080 -0.056 9 625051 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.061 0.713 6.328 0.047 0.346 10 625052 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.080 1.433 7.070 0.052 0.582 11 625061 1885 1981 97 1.000 0.053 0.280 3.562 0.045 0.380 12 625062 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.060 -0.248 3.187 0.044 0.544 13 625071 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.061 -0.070 3.040 0.043 0.553 14 625072 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.053 0.239 3.128 0.049 0.222 15 625081 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.050 -0.454 2.735 0.047 0.244 16 625082 1887 1981 95 0.999 0.055 0.433 3.535 0.041 0.505 17 625091 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.040 0.505 3.796 0.036 0.236 18 625092 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.063 4.168 28.101 0.044 0.219 19 625101 1943 1981 39 1.000 0.066 1.726 9.339 0.062 0.267 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 0.999 0.074 0.895 6.121 0.066 0.342 21 625111 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.049 0.224 4.306 0.043 0.337 22 625112 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.042 -1.741 8.595 0.036 0.193 23 625121 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.041 -0.115 2.965 0.043 0.198 24 625122 1918 1981 64 1.000 0.039 0.807 4.483 0.040 -0.140 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.000 0.058 0.786 6.488 0.049 0.279 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.013 1.187 5.765 0.010 0.177 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.058 0.609 4.440 0.045 0.272 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.018 0.752 3.338 0.011 0.150 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.999 0.039 -1.741 2.390 0.036 -0.140 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.049 0.231 3.361 0.043 0.209 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.067 0.983 6.699 0.054 0.359 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 1.000 0.083 4.168 28.101 0.080 0.582 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.096 0.159 0.010 -0.068 2.931 -0.367 0.563 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.367 SERIES 625032 AND 625052 102 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.563 SERIES 625041 AND 625042 102 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.136 0.075 SDEV 0.193 0.186 SERR 0.029 0.013 EPS 0.741 0.651 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.999 0.032 0.436 4.243 0.035 -0.021 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.175 0.107 -0.059 44 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 1.19 1.01 1.05 2.24 4.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.021 0.076 -0.040 -0.076 0.004 0.060 -0.118 -0.057 0.034 -0.069 PACF -0.021 0.076 -0.037 -0.083 0.007 0.072 -0.125 -0.080 0.062 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.188 0.188 0.189 0.190 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.194 0.194 0.195 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.048 0.136 0.012 -0.041 -0.008 -0.116 -0.101 -0.180 -0.014 -0.165 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.048 2 0.042 0.134 3 0.042 0.134 0.000 4 0.042 0.142 0.002 -0.060 5 0.041 0.142 0.003 -0.060 -0.006 6 0.041 0.135 0.003 -0.045 -0.001 -0.104 7 0.031 0.135 -0.001 -0.045 0.011 -0.100 -0.093 8 0.017 0.120 0.001 -0.052 0.011 -0.080 -0.088 -0.151 9 0.021 0.122 0.002 -0.052 0.012 -0.080 -0.091 -0.151 0.023 10 0.024 0.101 -0.010 -0.063 0.014 -0.087 -0.090 -0.134 0.026 -0.140 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 331.92 333.65 333.62 335.62 337.21 339.21 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 339.98 341.01 340.40 342.34 342.11 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 625011 0 0.078 2 625012 0 0.000 3 625021 0 0.123 4 625022 0 0.084 5 625031 0 0.029 6 625032 0 0.141 7 625041 0 0.067 8 625042 0 0.003 9 625051 0 0.122 10 625052 0 0.343 11 625061 0 0.146 12 625062 0 0.297 13 625071 0 0.323 14 625072 0 0.052 15 625081 0 0.060 16 625082 0 0.275 17 625091 0 0.059 18 625092 0 0.048 19 625101 0 0.071 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 625102 0 0.117 21 625111 0 0.119 22 625112 0 0.038 23 625121 0 0.039 24 625122 0 0.021 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.111 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.100 MEDIAN 0 0.075 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.088 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.044 UPPER HINGE 0 0.132 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.343 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.048 1.000 5.714 0.045 0.277 2 625012 1927 1981 55 1.000 0.064 2.577 13.032 0.053 0.010 3 625021 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.072 0.967 4.556 0.056 0.346 4 625022 1873 1981 109 1.000 0.068 0.922 4.620 0.058 0.284 5 625031 1881 1981 101 1.000 0.042 0.376 4.397 0.044 0.170 6 625032 1869 1981 113 1.000 0.053 0.447 2.390 0.045 0.371 7 625041 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.070 0.893 3.697 0.061 0.256 8 625042 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.083 2.890 17.011 0.080 -0.056 9 625051 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.061 0.713 6.328 0.047 0.346 10 625052 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.080 1.433 7.070 0.052 0.582 11 625061 1885 1981 97 1.000 0.053 0.280 3.562 0.045 0.380 12 625062 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.060 -0.248 3.187 0.044 0.544 13 625071 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.061 -0.070 3.040 0.043 0.553 14 625072 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.053 0.239 3.128 0.049 0.222 15 625081 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.050 -0.454 2.735 0.047 0.244 16 625082 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.055 0.433 3.535 0.041 0.505 17 625091 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.040 0.505 3.796 0.036 0.236 18 625092 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.063 4.168 28.101 0.044 0.219 19 625101 1943 1981 39 1.000 0.066 1.726 9.339 0.062 0.267 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 1.000 0.074 0.895 6.121 0.066 0.342 21 625111 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.049 0.224 4.306 0.043 0.337 22 625112 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.042 -1.741 8.595 0.036 0.193 23 625121 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.041 -0.115 2.965 0.043 0.198 24 625122 1918 1981 64 1.000 0.039 0.807 4.483 0.040 -0.140 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.000 0.058 0.786 6.488 0.049 0.279 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.013 1.187 5.765 0.010 0.177 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.058 0.609 4.440 0.045 0.272 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.018 0.752 3.338 0.011 0.150 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.039 -1.741 2.390 0.036 -0.140 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.049 0.231 3.361 0.043 0.209 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.067 0.983 6.699 0.054 0.359 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 1.000 0.083 4.168 28.101 0.080 0.582 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.096 0.159 0.010 -0.068 2.931 -0.367 0.563 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.367 SERIES 625032 AND 625052 102 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.563 SERIES 625041 AND 625042 102 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.136 0.075 SDEV 0.193 0.186 SERR 0.029 0.013 EPS 0.741 0.651 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 1.000 0.032 0.436 4.242 0.035 -0.022 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.175 0.107 -0.059 44 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 1.19 1.01 1.05 2.24 4.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.022 0.076 -0.040 -0.075 0.005 0.059 -0.118 -0.056 0.034 -0.069 PACF -0.022 0.076 -0.037 -0.083 0.007 0.072 -0.125 -0.080 0.061 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.188 0.188 0.189 0.190 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.194 0.194 0.195 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 1.000 0.032 0.436 4.242 0.035 -0.022 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.022 0.076 -0.040 -0.075 0.005 0.059 -0.118 -0.056 0.034 -0.069 PACF -0.022 0.076 -0.037 -0.083 0.007 0.072 -0.125 -0.080 0.061 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.188 0.188 0.189 0.190 0.191 0.191 0.191 0.194 0.194 0.195 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.16 MINUTES