RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR006P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR006P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 625 1 Ceadar Valley (feucht) LATEWOOD_PERCENT CEBR - 625 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1200 3459-3241 1869 1981 - 625 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 625032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1927 1930 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 625052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1916 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 3.766 0.935 1.338 5.087 0.218 0.226 2 625012 1927 1981 55 4.193 1.230 0.107 2.558 0.280 0.387 3 625021 1905 1981 77 4.075 1.258 0.412 2.993 0.310 0.324 4 625022 1873 1981 109 3.475 1.341 0.583 3.685 0.337 0.390 5 625031 1881 1981 101 4.788 0.879 0.315 2.633 0.188 0.247 6 625032 1869 1981 113 4.280 1.071 0.296 2.734 0.234 0.302 7 625041 1877 1981 105 4.801 1.334 0.245 2.385 0.300 0.066 8 625042 1880 1981 102 5.569 1.433 -0.473 3.323 0.257 0.194 9 625051 1888 1981 94 3.882 1.294 0.638 3.554 0.288 0.451 10 625052 1880 1981 102 3.662 1.171 0.608 3.508 0.267 0.453 11 625061 1885 1981 97 3.841 1.256 0.861 3.780 0.230 0.470 12 625062 1877 1981 105 4.055 1.187 0.553 2.969 0.240 0.488 13 625071 1905 1981 77 4.157 1.109 0.414 3.113 0.237 0.501 14 625072 1905 1981 77 3.638 0.971 0.308 2.553 0.253 0.349 15 625081 1897 1981 85 4.858 0.974 -0.212 2.985 0.193 0.294 16 625082 1887 1981 95 4.883 1.719 0.562 2.590 0.191 0.822 17 625091 1920 1981 62 5.549 1.076 -0.243 3.440 0.186 0.326 18 625092 1900 1981 82 4.359 1.093 0.105 3.725 0.215 0.428 19 625101 1943 1981 39 4.534 1.549 1.076 4.961 0.307 0.278 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 3.401 1.101 0.991 3.753 0.322 0.138 21 625111 1919 1981 63 2.998 0.624 -0.274 2.639 0.194 0.384 22 625112 1920 1981 62 4.565 0.967 -0.087 2.506 0.170 0.489 23 625121 1914 1981 68 4.345 1.029 -0.121 3.327 0.186 0.454 24 625122 1918 1981 64 4.865 1.038 -0.655 3.618 0.186 0.372 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1869 TO 1981 113 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 4.272 1.152 0.306 3.268 0.241 0.368 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.645 0.231 0.499 0.708 0.050 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 4.237 1.105 0.312 3.218 0.235 0.378 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 37 0.991 0.275 0.699 1.016 0.092 0.168 MINIMUM VALUE 38 2.998 0.624 -0.655 2.385 0.170 0.066 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 3.804 1.001 -0.104 2.636 0.192 0.286 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 4.795 1.276 0.595 3.652 0.284 0.454 MAXIMUM VALUE 109 5.569 1.719 1.338 5.087 0.337 0.822 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.214 0.183 0.011 -0.051 3.010 -0.376 0.706 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.376 SERIES 625042 AND 625082 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.706 SERIES 625071 AND 625082 77 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.197 0.171 SDEV 0.156 0.196 SERR 0.023 0.014 EPS 0.816 0.826 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 4.204 0.782 0.158 3.985 0.187 0.128 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.041 0.022 1.100 22 91 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.36 1.00 1.11 1.47 9.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 80. 38. 38. 64. 102. 113. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.127 0.279 0.049 0.075 0.017 0.012 0.040 0.203 0.110 -0.042 PACF 0.127 0.267 -0.012 -0.003 0.001 -0.009 0.040 0.215 0.061 -0.191 95% C.L. 0.188 0.191 0.205 0.205 0.206 0.206 0.207 0.207 0.214 0.216 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.091 0.093 0.273 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 625011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01417162 4.31905699 2 625012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00342496 4.28917170 3 625021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00894526 4.42380047 4 625022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01356964 2.72880721 5 625031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00675178 5.13265753 6 625032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00699564 4.69939899 7 625041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00920060 4.31322527 8 625042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01918180 4.58076477 9 625051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01127255 3.34636235 10 625052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00074329 3.64502954 11 625061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01600450 3.05722284 12 625062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013042 4.04842138 13 625071 1 2.64073515 0.06554392 0.00000000 3.65360546 14 625072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015011 3.63258719 15 625081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015458 4.85088253 16 625082 1 5.65831804 0.02336814 0.00000000 2.63739991 17 625091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01260759 5.15189314 18 625092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01199236 4.85658550 19 625101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.03791295 3.77584338 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 625102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00591968 3.51596022 21 625111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00443212 3.13992310 22 625112 1 2.16100001 0.02671563 0.00000000 3.52337098 23 625121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01413673 4.83271742 24 625122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01424657 5.32754469 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.234 1.509 4.903 0.215 0.149 2 625012 1927 1981 55 1.000 0.294 0.143 2.612 0.275 0.387 3 625021 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.300 0.180 2.658 0.306 0.294 4 625022 1873 1981 109 1.000 0.384 1.005 5.100 0.334 0.317 5 625031 1881 1981 101 1.000 0.179 0.314 2.655 0.186 0.196 6 625032 1869 1981 113 1.000 0.235 -0.060 2.603 0.230 0.258 7 625041 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.277 0.494 2.896 0.297 0.008 8 625042 1880 1981 102 0.999 0.257 0.552 4.863 0.254 -0.004 9 625051 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.317 0.354 3.036 0.285 0.399 10 625052 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.322 0.585 3.378 0.264 0.493 11 625061 1885 1981 97 1.000 0.306 0.893 3.637 0.227 0.396 12 625062 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.293 0.551 2.965 0.238 0.483 13 625071 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.219 -0.258 2.452 0.234 0.175 14 625072 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.267 0.307 2.550 0.249 0.345 15 625081 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.201 -0.214 2.978 0.190 0.291 16 625082 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.213 -0.169 3.841 0.189 0.359 17 625091 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.187 -0.566 3.611 0.184 0.280 18 625092 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.250 0.469 4.182 0.213 0.386 19 625101 1943 1981 39 0.999 0.340 1.676 6.786 0.299 0.238 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 1.000 0.321 0.920 3.543 0.313 0.133 21 625111 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.207 -0.245 2.743 0.190 0.373 22 625112 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.176 -0.886 4.686 0.166 0.304 23 625121 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.230 -0.107 3.428 0.183 0.420 24 625122 1918 1981 64 1.000 0.210 -0.571 3.460 0.183 0.332 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.000 0.259 0.286 3.565 0.238 0.292 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.056 0.633 1.060 0.049 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.254 0.310 3.403 0.232 0.310 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.092 0.760 1.311 0.090 0.170 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.999 0.176 -0.886 2.452 0.166 -0.004 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.211 -0.192 2.700 0.190 0.217 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.303 0.569 4.011 0.280 0.387 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 1.000 0.384 1.676 6.786 0.334 0.493 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 625011 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 625012 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 625021 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 625022 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 625031 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 625032 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 625041 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 625042 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 625051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 625052 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 625061 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 625062 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 625071 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 625072 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 625081 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 625082 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 625091 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 625092 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 625101 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 625102 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 625111 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 625112 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 625121 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 625122 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 0.999 0.226 1.424 4.728 0.215 0.102 2 625012 1927 1981 55 0.999 0.286 0.063 2.543 0.274 0.357 3 625021 1905 1981 77 0.998 0.291 0.148 2.696 0.306 0.243 4 625022 1873 1981 109 0.998 0.375 0.944 4.908 0.333 0.295 5 625031 1881 1981 101 0.999 0.172 0.349 2.576 0.186 0.136 6 625032 1869 1981 113 0.999 0.230 0.188 3.172 0.230 0.193 7 625041 1877 1981 105 0.999 0.270 0.475 2.855 0.297 -0.033 8 625042 1880 1981 102 0.999 0.255 1.360 7.884 0.254 -0.147 9 625051 1888 1981 94 0.998 0.308 0.332 3.071 0.284 0.372 10 625052 1880 1981 102 0.997 0.295 0.634 3.086 0.263 0.390 11 625061 1885 1981 97 0.997 0.293 0.915 3.672 0.227 0.362 12 625062 1877 1981 105 0.997 0.230 0.216 2.778 0.238 0.200 13 625071 1905 1981 77 0.999 0.215 -0.235 2.378 0.234 0.138 14 625072 1905 1981 77 0.996 0.240 0.264 2.502 0.249 0.160 15 625081 1897 1981 85 0.998 0.186 -0.301 3.215 0.190 0.165 16 625082 1887 1981 95 0.998 0.192 -0.397 3.700 0.189 0.189 17 625091 1920 1981 62 0.999 0.172 -0.686 3.858 0.183 0.147 18 625092 1900 1981 82 0.997 0.231 0.440 4.356 0.212 0.299 19 625101 1943 1981 39 0.996 0.284 1.036 5.231 0.294 0.081 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 0.996 0.285 0.660 3.011 0.316 0.007 21 625111 1919 1981 63 0.997 0.186 -0.240 2.515 0.190 0.221 22 625112 1920 1981 62 0.999 0.172 -0.938 4.924 0.166 0.268 23 625121 1914 1981 68 0.999 0.220 -0.292 3.104 0.182 0.394 24 625122 1918 1981 64 0.998 0.191 -0.519 3.819 0.182 0.191 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 0.998 0.242 0.243 3.607 0.237 0.197 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.001 0.053 0.625 1.251 0.049 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 0.998 0.230 0.240 3.138 0.232 0.192 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.002 0.094 0.913 1.370 0.089 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.996 0.172 -0.938 2.378 0.166 -0.147 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.997 0.191 -0.266 2.737 0.189 0.137 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 0.999 0.286 0.647 4.107 0.279 0.297 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 0.999 0.375 1.424 7.884 0.333 0.394 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.236 0.168 0.010 0.017 2.681 -0.252 0.653 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.252 SERIES 625011 AND 625051 77 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.653 SERIES 625072 AND 625101 39 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.242 0.200 SDEV 0.154 0.189 SERR 0.023 0.013 EPS 0.853 0.851 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.998 0.177 0.417 4.009 0.194 0.073 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.177 0.090 0.115 41 72 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.53 1.00 1.06 1.59 3.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.072 0.159 -0.127 -0.070 -0.166 -0.093 -0.058 0.114 0.071 -0.104 PACF 0.072 0.155 -0.152 -0.078 -0.116 -0.073 -0.022 0.113 0.035 -0.201 95% C.L. 0.188 0.189 0.194 0.197 0.198 0.202 0.204 0.205 0.207 0.208 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.060 0.086 0.166 -0.163 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.126 -0.038 -0.170 -0.073 -0.230 -0.095 -0.079 0.135 0.055 -0.031 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.126 2 0.133 -0.055 3 0.124 -0.033 -0.161 4 0.119 -0.034 -0.157 -0.034 5 0.111 -0.072 -0.165 -0.006 -0.240 6 0.091 -0.072 -0.178 -0.012 -0.231 -0.081 7 0.082 -0.098 -0.180 -0.032 -0.239 -0.071 -0.112 8 0.090 -0.093 -0.163 -0.029 -0.227 -0.064 -0.118 0.068 9 0.092 -0.097 -0.165 -0.037 -0.228 -0.069 -0.121 0.071 -0.031 10 0.088 -0.088 -0.180 -0.045 -0.257 -0.074 -0.141 0.058 -0.020 -0.126 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 725.07 725.26 726.92 725.95 727.82 723.11 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 724.37 724.95 726.43 728.32 728.51 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.111 -0.072 -0.165 -0.006 -0.240 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.04 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.16 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.111 -0.060 -0.179 -0.040 -0.222 -0.018 0.036 0.085 0.021 0.0437 -0.007 -0.016 -0.029 -0.006 -0.006 0.006 0.006 0.008 0.001 0.0000 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 -.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 625011 5 0.020 0.105 -0.017 -0.076 0.023 -0.013 2 625012 5 0.253 0.311 -0.026 -0.125 -0.184 -0.090 3 625021 5 0.219 0.284 -0.158 0.093 -0.024 -0.201 4 625022 5 0.145 0.262 0.145 0.009 -0.001 -0.174 5 625031 5 0.061 0.156 -0.041 -0.085 0.171 -0.027 6 625032 5 0.134 0.149 0.261 0.053 -0.143 0.050 7 625041 5 0.028 -0.026 0.156 -0.012 -0.010 -0.033 8 625042 5 0.209 -0.094 0.465 -0.005 -0.158 -0.026 9 625051 5 0.207 0.356 0.053 0.029 -0.001 -0.178 10 625052 5 0.189 0.377 0.022 0.018 -0.029 -0.147 11 625061 5 0.146 0.363 -0.013 0.031 -0.006 -0.108 12 625062 5 0.101 0.194 0.063 -0.141 0.011 -0.177 13 625071 5 0.064 0.113 -0.001 -0.146 -0.110 -0.063 14 625072 5 0.099 0.125 0.077 0.070 -0.116 -0.206 15 625081 5 0.069 0.151 0.141 -0.058 -0.020 -0.124 16 625082 5 0.135 0.179 0.129 -0.255 -0.040 -0.096 17 625091 5 0.122 0.156 -0.123 -0.115 0.034 -0.160 18 625092 5 0.138 0.331 -0.115 -0.097 -0.068 0.068 19 625101 5 0.180 0.027 -0.129 0.033 -0.247 -0.299 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 625102 5 0.221 0.064 -0.046 -0.186 0.095 -0.407 21 625111 5 0.175 0.313 -0.238 0.231 -0.233 -0.089 22 625112 5 0.156 0.280 0.162 -0.196 0.106 -0.115 23 625121 5 0.235 0.402 -0.105 0.089 -0.203 -0.114 24 625122 5 0.136 0.287 -0.339 0.127 -0.088 0.057 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.143 0.203 0.013 -0.030 -0.052 -0.111 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.065 0.133 0.169 0.116 0.107 0.110 MEDIAN 5 0.142 0.187 -0.007 -0.008 -0.026 -0.111 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.098 0.193 0.245 0.164 0.134 0.146 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.020 -0.094 -0.339 -0.255 -0.247 -0.407 LOWER HINGE 5 0.100 0.119 -0.110 -0.120 -0.129 -0.176 UPPER HINGE 5 0.198 0.312 0.135 0.043 0.005 -0.030 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.253 0.402 0.465 0.231 0.171 0.068 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.224 1.366 4.565 0.224 0.001 2 625012 1927 1981 55 1.000 0.253 0.498 2.621 0.295 -0.017 3 625021 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.271 0.152 2.636 0.323 -0.063 4 625022 1873 1981 109 1.000 0.345 0.827 4.712 0.371 -0.026 5 625031 1881 1981 101 1.000 0.167 0.369 2.517 0.189 -0.001 6 625032 1869 1981 113 1.000 0.216 0.125 3.322 0.243 0.007 7 625041 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.266 0.450 2.783 0.293 -0.001 8 625042 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.227 0.687 5.811 0.236 -0.003 9 625051 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.278 0.476 3.379 0.309 -0.015 10 625052 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.266 0.274 2.604 0.308 -0.015 11 625061 1885 1981 97 1.000 0.271 1.206 4.959 0.269 -0.006 12 625062 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.218 0.431 3.131 0.252 0.001 13 625071 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.208 -0.098 2.476 0.239 -0.004 14 625072 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.229 0.473 2.650 0.258 0.019 15 625081 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.179 0.035 3.593 0.197 0.001 16 625082 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.178 -0.082 3.366 0.192 -0.008 17 625091 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.166 -0.343 3.435 0.193 -0.036 18 625092 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.215 0.687 5.245 0.232 0.004 19 625101 1943 1981 39 1.000 0.256 0.742 4.662 0.290 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 1.000 0.253 0.576 3.084 0.279 -0.057 21 625111 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.168 -0.046 1.985 0.194 0.008 22 625112 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.159 -0.320 3.632 0.194 -0.011 23 625121 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.193 0.144 3.596 0.203 -0.015 24 625122 1918 1981 64 1.000 0.178 -0.161 3.413 0.190 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.000 0.224 0.353 3.507 0.249 -0.010 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.047 0.441 0.995 0.051 0.019 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.221 0.400 3.372 0.241 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.083 0.637 1.456 0.096 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.159 -0.343 1.985 0.189 -0.063 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.178 -0.006 2.643 0.195 -0.015 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.261 0.632 4.099 0.292 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 1.000 0.345 1.366 5.811 0.371 0.019 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.216 0.158 0.010 0.071 3.056 -0.277 0.650 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.277 SERIES 625032 AND 625101 39 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.650 SERIES 625091 AND 625092 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.242 0.198 SDEV 0.137 0.181 SERR 0.020 0.012 EPS 0.853 0.850 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.996 0.156 0.470 3.527 0.186 -0.113 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.072 0.039 0.150 39 74 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.73 1.00 1.09 1.83 401.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.112 0.035 -0.084 0.016 -0.044 -0.079 -0.060 0.141 0.081 -0.148 PACF -0.112 0.023 -0.078 -0.002 -0.039 -0.097 -0.079 0.126 0.104 -0.155 95% C.L. 0.188 0.190 0.191 0.192 0.192 0.192 0.194 0.194 0.198 0.199 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.007 0.003 -0.003 0.006 -0.097 -0.075 0.149 0.062 -0.145 PACF -0.004 -0.007 0.003 -0.003 0.006 -0.097 -0.076 0.149 0.065 -0.151 95% C.L. 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.188 0.190 0.191 0.195 0.196 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.012 -0.004 -0.007 0.004 -0.003 0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.997 0.166 0.281 3.352 0.173 0.155 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.154 -0.027 -0.181 -0.097 -0.232 -0.132 0.016 0.209 0.134 -0.061 PACF 0.154 -0.052 -0.173 -0.046 -0.233 -0.114 0.005 0.125 0.034 -0.140 95% C.L. 0.188 0.193 0.193 0.199 0.200 0.210 0.212 0.212 0.220 0.222 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.027 0.154 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.20 MINUTES