RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR006W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR006W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 625 1 Ceadar Valley (feucht) WIDTH_RING CEBR - 625 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1200 3459-3241 1869 1981 - 625 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 625032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1927 1930 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 625052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1916 1916 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 1.761 1.469 2.137 7.286 0.269 0.870 2 625012 1927 1981 55 2.388 1.463 2.404 10.923 0.325 0.554 3 625021 1905 1981 77 2.879 1.084 0.349 3.611 0.287 0.573 4 625022 1873 1981 109 1.744 0.804 0.655 3.456 0.341 0.625 5 625031 1881 1981 101 1.477 0.810 1.160 4.692 0.295 0.710 6 625032 1869 1981 113 1.496 0.959 1.503 5.542 0.291 0.827 7 625041 1877 1981 105 1.301 0.706 0.976 3.583 0.321 0.726 8 625042 1880 1981 102 1.210 0.544 1.295 5.237 0.303 0.621 9 625051 1888 1981 94 1.898 1.119 0.750 3.344 0.337 0.743 10 625052 1880 1981 102 1.420 0.970 0.853 3.006 0.312 0.792 11 625061 1885 1981 97 2.324 1.070 0.101 2.158 0.225 0.777 12 625062 1877 1981 105 2.235 1.096 0.812 3.325 0.264 0.721 13 625071 1905 1981 77 2.715 1.066 0.943 4.253 0.211 0.752 14 625072 1905 1981 77 2.811 1.115 1.061 3.300 0.204 0.777 15 625081 1897 1981 85 2.293 0.807 0.356 2.665 0.229 0.720 16 625082 1887 1981 95 1.707 0.745 0.573 3.736 0.216 0.813 17 625091 1920 1981 62 2.697 1.373 0.801 2.477 0.194 0.884 18 625092 1900 1981 82 2.492 0.732 0.141 2.636 0.186 0.713 19 625101 1943 1981 39 3.703 1.789 0.526 3.412 0.389 0.623 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 2.342 1.385 1.125 3.695 0.415 0.643 21 625111 1919 1981 63 1.525 0.422 0.195 2.738 0.163 0.663 22 625112 1920 1981 62 2.780 1.516 1.298 3.814 0.169 0.852 23 625121 1914 1981 68 2.721 0.925 0.571 3.047 0.191 0.729 24 625122 1918 1981 64 2.671 1.267 0.603 3.002 0.234 0.790 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1869 TO 1981 113 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 2.191 1.052 0.883 3.956 0.265 0.729 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.633 0.333 0.570 1.859 0.069 0.091 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 2.309 1.068 0.807 3.434 0.267 0.727 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 37 1.090 0.514 0.594 1.029 0.109 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.210 0.422 0.101 2.158 0.163 0.554 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.616 0.806 0.548 3.004 0.208 0.653 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 2.706 1.320 1.142 4.033 0.316 0.791 MAXIMUM VALUE 109 3.703 1.789 2.404 10.923 0.415 0.884 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.202 0.246 0.015 -0.380 2.956 -0.522 0.819 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.522 SERIES 625082 AND 625091 62 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.819 SERIES 625082 AND 625112 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.225 0.192 SDEV 0.199 0.257 SERR 0.030 0.018 EPS 0.840 0.845 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 2.076 0.531 0.664 3.541 0.181 0.601 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.279 0.213 0.552 36 77 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.34 1.00 1.03 1.37 3.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.85 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 80. 38. 38. 64. 102. 113. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.596 0.416 0.276 0.210 0.214 0.173 0.208 0.156 0.064 -0.002 PACF 0.596 0.095 -0.009 0.040 0.098 -0.007 0.108 -0.037 -0.102 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.188 0.246 0.270 0.280 0.285 0.291 0.294 0.300 0.302 0.303 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.369 0.601 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 625011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03773095 3.23280597 2 625012 1 13.76954651 0.68405217 0.00000000 2.13302827 3 625021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00457227 3.05753922 4 625022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00208248 1.62995923 5 625031 1 2.76360369 0.02999169 0.00000000 0.62169313 6 625032 1 2.95325446 0.01800696 0.00000000 0.23620331 7 625041 1 1.94044924 0.02340410 0.00000000 0.58768713 8 625042 1 1.27171791 0.06944916 0.00000000 1.03727794 9 625051 1 2.42583299 0.06596120 0.00000000 1.52059746 10 625052 1 2.46245909 0.04198661 0.00000000 0.85993975 11 625061 1 2.20337033 0.08419227 0.00000000 2.06570053 12 625062 1 2.70814204 0.09773303 0.00000000 1.98403454 13 625071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00221252 2.80109358 14 625072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01397734 2.26605272 15 625081 1 0.17372711 0.00975782 0.00000000 2.17556810 16 625082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01519835 2.43657327 17 625091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.05801315 0.86968267 18 625092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00735810 2.18646789 19 625101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.04640688 2.77493930 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 625102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02665171 1.82265997 21 625111 1 1.53385866 0.01521145 0.00000000 0.54558086 22 625112 1 5.36085653 0.06084572 0.00000000 1.43296528 23 625121 1 2.12428665 0.11648632 0.00000000 2.46869946 24 625122 1 3.38557339 0.08208840 0.00000000 2.05631232 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 1.084 0.708 1.425 4.127 0.270 0.772 2 625012 1927 1981 55 1.000 0.463 0.792 3.373 0.305 0.653 3 625021 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.372 0.250 3.438 0.283 0.556 4 625022 1873 1981 109 1.000 0.463 0.680 3.427 0.338 0.617 5 625031 1881 1981 101 0.999 0.303 0.724 4.241 0.291 0.252 6 625032 1869 1981 113 1.003 0.392 0.824 4.493 0.295 0.547 7 625041 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.402 0.539 3.681 0.318 0.516 8 625042 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.388 1.096 5.073 0.301 0.503 9 625051 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.567 1.107 4.669 0.334 0.674 10 625052 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.599 0.985 3.374 0.314 0.792 11 625061 1885 1981 97 1.000 0.449 0.398 2.779 0.222 0.772 12 625062 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.472 1.341 5.503 0.262 0.703 13 625071 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.389 0.841 3.991 0.209 0.732 14 625072 1905 1981 77 0.999 0.367 0.847 2.957 0.201 0.742 15 625081 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.352 0.364 2.665 0.227 0.711 16 625082 1887 1981 95 0.991 0.360 0.784 4.070 0.214 0.718 17 625091 1920 1981 62 1.046 0.529 3.150 13.347 0.192 0.741 18 625092 1900 1981 82 0.999 0.274 -0.174 2.964 0.184 0.657 19 625101 1943 1981 39 0.996 0.463 0.589 3.755 0.380 0.552 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 1.001 0.563 0.756 2.999 0.404 0.606 21 625111 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.226 0.502 2.491 0.160 0.560 22 625112 1920 1981 62 0.998 0.250 0.246 2.771 0.166 0.659 23 625121 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.310 0.583 2.867 0.190 0.676 24 625122 1918 1981 64 0.999 0.395 0.466 3.834 0.228 0.678 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.005 0.419 0.797 4.037 0.262 0.641 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.020 0.116 0.616 2.133 0.068 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.394 0.740 3.560 0.266 0.667 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.001 0.112 0.432 1.223 0.104 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.991 0.226 -0.174 2.491 0.160 0.252 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.999 0.356 0.484 2.960 0.205 0.558 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.468 0.916 4.184 0.309 0.725 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 1.084 0.708 3.150 13.347 0.404 0.792 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 625011 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 625012 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 625021 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 625022 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 625031 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 625032 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 625041 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 625042 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 625051 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 625052 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 625061 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 625062 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 625071 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 625072 -67 51 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 625081 -67 56 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 625082 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 625091 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 625092 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 625101 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 625102 -67 25 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 625111 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 625112 -67 41 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 625121 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 625122 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 0.967 0.485 2.240 8.000 0.263 0.669 2 625012 1927 1981 55 0.989 0.421 0.883 3.830 0.297 0.593 3 625021 1905 1981 77 0.993 0.327 0.033 3.150 0.284 0.473 4 625022 1873 1981 109 0.992 0.418 0.390 2.817 0.338 0.540 5 625031 1881 1981 101 0.999 0.298 0.698 4.285 0.291 0.229 6 625032 1869 1981 113 0.995 0.364 0.447 3.057 0.295 0.512 7 625041 1877 1981 105 0.996 0.386 0.473 3.478 0.318 0.472 8 625042 1880 1981 102 0.998 0.372 0.916 4.761 0.301 0.468 9 625051 1888 1981 94 0.994 0.553 1.081 4.516 0.334 0.683 10 625052 1880 1981 102 0.992 0.578 0.928 3.264 0.314 0.784 11 625061 1885 1981 97 0.982 0.376 0.502 3.696 0.222 0.694 12 625062 1877 1981 105 0.997 0.433 1.084 5.326 0.261 0.672 13 625071 1905 1981 77 0.988 0.330 0.787 4.112 0.207 0.639 14 625072 1905 1981 77 0.988 0.291 0.505 2.869 0.199 0.625 15 625081 1897 1981 85 0.990 0.301 0.087 2.637 0.226 0.610 16 625082 1887 1981 95 0.993 0.285 0.327 3.419 0.213 0.561 17 625091 1920 1981 62 0.994 0.266 0.213 2.593 0.194 0.540 18 625092 1900 1981 82 0.993 0.205 0.340 3.300 0.182 0.394 19 625101 1943 1981 39 0.992 0.370 0.132 3.696 0.369 0.329 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 0.980 0.504 0.507 2.814 0.400 0.542 21 625111 1919 1981 63 0.997 0.205 0.337 2.346 0.159 0.489 22 625112 1920 1981 62 0.997 0.222 -0.270 2.315 0.165 0.579 23 625121 1914 1981 68 0.995 0.269 0.413 2.394 0.187 0.608 24 625122 1918 1981 64 0.990 0.360 0.334 3.504 0.224 0.653 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 0.991 0.359 0.558 3.591 0.260 0.557 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.007 0.102 0.493 1.224 0.067 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 0.993 0.362 0.460 3.360 0.262 0.570 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.006 0.131 0.504 1.155 0.105 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 38 0.967 0.205 -0.270 2.315 0.159 0.229 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 0.989 0.288 0.331 2.816 0.203 0.481 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 0.996 0.419 0.835 3.971 0.308 0.646 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 0.999 0.578 2.240 8.000 0.400 0.784 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.188 0.190 0.011 -0.536 3.412 -0.514 0.568 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.514 SERIES 625051 AND 625102 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.568 SERIES 625052 AND 625112 62 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.194 0.162 SDEV 0.213 0.226 SERR 0.032 0.016 EPS 0.814 0.816 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.966 0.199 -0.085 2.600 0.184 0.432 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.286 0.157 0.134 50 63 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.77 1.00 1.13 1.90 5.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.84 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.428 0.132 -0.013 -0.004 0.015 -0.028 0.006 -0.031 -0.098 -0.140 PACF 0.428 -0.063 -0.057 0.039 0.011 -0.056 0.048 -0.054 -0.092 -0.069 95% C.L. 0.188 0.220 0.223 0.223 0.223 0.223 0.223 0.223 0.223 0.225 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.188 0.429 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.396 0.075 -0.085 -0.048 0.007 -0.009 0.041 -0.016 -0.073 -0.101 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.396 2 0.435 -0.097 3 0.426 -0.056 -0.095 4 0.429 -0.054 -0.111 0.036 5 0.428 -0.052 -0.109 0.027 0.021 6 0.429 -0.050 -0.114 0.025 0.039 -0.041 7 0.432 -0.053 -0.116 0.033 0.042 -0.070 0.067 8 0.436 -0.057 -0.113 0.035 0.035 -0.073 0.094 -0.061 9 0.432 -0.051 -0.118 0.037 0.037 -0.081 0.090 -0.033 -0.063 10 0.430 -0.053 -0.114 0.033 0.039 -0.079 0.085 -0.036 -0.045 -0.042 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 796.23 778.91 779.83 780.80 782.66 784.61 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 786.41 787.90 789.48 791.02 792.83 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.396 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 15.72 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 118.65 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.396 0.157 0.062 0.025 0.010 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 625011 1 0.523 0.678 2 625012 1 0.461 0.603 3 625021 1 0.233 0.474 4 625022 1 0.312 0.551 5 625031 1 0.058 0.232 6 625032 1 0.280 0.516 7 625041 1 0.224 0.473 8 625042 1 0.224 0.471 9 625051 1 0.477 0.687 10 625052 1 0.623 0.787 11 625061 1 0.488 0.699 12 625062 1 0.470 0.672 13 625071 1 0.441 0.663 14 625072 1 0.478 0.628 15 625081 1 0.378 0.615 16 625082 1 0.329 0.571 17 625091 1 0.352 0.547 18 625092 1 0.176 0.410 19 625101 1 0.342 0.338 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 625102 1 0.525 0.547 21 625111 1 0.254 0.504 22 625112 1 0.344 0.580 23 625121 1 0.482 0.614 24 625122 1 0.475 0.679 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.373 0.564 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.135 0.125 MEDIAN 1 0.365 0.576 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.210 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.058 0.232 LOWER HINGE 1 0.267 0.489 UPPER HINGE 1 0.478 0.668 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.623 0.787 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 625011 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.355 1.905 8.821 0.296 0.227 2 625012 1927 1981 55 1.000 0.336 1.208 4.846 0.297 0.242 3 625021 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.288 0.040 3.616 0.328 0.050 4 625022 1873 1981 109 1.000 0.347 0.057 2.944 0.421 -0.067 5 625031 1881 1981 101 1.000 0.289 0.666 3.644 0.326 -0.017 6 625032 1869 1981 113 1.000 0.312 0.724 3.705 0.367 -0.069 7 625041 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.340 0.248 3.202 0.392 -0.010 8 625042 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.327 1.292 6.309 0.346 0.018 9 625051 1888 1981 94 1.001 0.399 0.979 5.200 0.380 0.071 10 625052 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.356 1.090 5.072 0.371 0.066 11 625061 1885 1981 97 1.000 0.269 0.821 5.740 0.293 -0.011 12 625062 1877 1981 105 1.000 0.321 1.023 4.317 0.323 0.121 13 625071 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.247 0.798 4.433 0.249 0.053 14 625072 1905 1981 77 1.000 0.226 0.147 2.936 0.233 0.234 15 625081 1897 1981 85 1.000 0.237 -0.003 3.050 0.289 0.001 16 625082 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.234 0.696 4.144 0.265 -0.022 17 625091 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.221 0.291 3.208 0.228 0.136 18 625092 1900 1981 82 1.000 0.186 0.255 2.853 0.215 0.021 19 625101 1943 1981 39 1.000 0.348 0.195 3.088 0.354 0.161 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 625102 1944 1981 38 1.000 0.422 0.740 3.234 0.431 0.311 21 625111 1919 1981 63 1.000 0.177 0.379 2.463 0.193 0.015 22 625112 1920 1981 62 1.000 0.181 -0.329 3.391 0.207 -0.060 23 625121 1914 1981 68 1.000 0.212 0.363 2.413 0.207 0.253 24 625122 1918 1981 64 1.000 0.263 0.576 4.266 0.256 0.115 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 81 1.000 0.287 0.590 4.037 0.303 0.077 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.000 0.069 0.506 1.445 0.071 0.112 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 79 1.000 0.289 0.621 3.630 0.297 0.052 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 38 0.000 0.113 0.679 1.570 0.119 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 38 1.000 0.177 -0.329 2.413 0.193 -0.069 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 63 1.000 0.230 0.221 3.069 0.241 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 101 1.000 0.343 0.900 4.639 0.360 0.148 MAXIMUM VALUE 113 1.001 0.422 1.905 8.821 0.431 0.311 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.254 0.134 0.008 -0.486 3.916 -0.349 0.577 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.349 SERIES 625051 AND 625102 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.577 SERIES 625021 AND 625022 77 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 60.82 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1920. 1945. CORR 45. 210. RBAR 0.244 0.243 SDEV 0.168 0.164 SERR 0.025 0.011 EPS 0.854 0.880 NSS 18.2 22.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.982 0.169 -0.587 3.329 0.222 -0.099 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.313 0.160 0.057 43 70 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.65 0.90 1.00 1.19 2.09 6.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.098 -0.045 -0.104 -0.024 -0.003 -0.036 0.006 0.082 -0.086 -0.054 PACF -0.098 -0.055 -0.116 -0.051 -0.024 -0.057 -0.015 0.073 -0.084 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.188 0.190 0.190 0.192 0.192 0.192 0.193 0.193 0.194 0.195 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 -0.066 -0.113 -0.035 -0.009 -0.036 0.011 0.075 -0.086 -0.066 PACF -0.005 -0.066 -0.114 -0.043 -0.026 -0.056 -0.002 0.065 -0.097 -0.064 95% C.L. 0.188 0.188 0.189 0.191 0.192 0.192 0.192 0.192 0.193 0.194 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 -0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1869 1981 113 0.983 0.179 -0.160 2.866 0.174 0.352 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.349 0.033 -0.100 -0.074 -0.042 -0.041 0.001 0.018 -0.104 -0.110 PACF 0.349 -0.101 -0.089 -0.003 -0.020 -0.038 0.023 0.004 -0.141 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.188 0.210 0.210 0.212 0.213 0.213 0.213 0.213 0.213 0.215 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.132 0.351 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.18 MINUTES