RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR008E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR008E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 624 1 Ceadar Valley (mittel-t) WIDTH_EARLY CEBR - 624 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1380 3459-3241 1806 1981 - 624 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 18 624101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1939 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 624112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1903 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 624011 1831 1981 151 0.720 0.258 0.695 3.105 0.189 0.782 2 624012 1806 1981 176 0.744 0.292 0.299 2.416 0.197 0.808 3 624021 1869 1981 113 0.834 0.235 1.062 4.819 0.150 0.741 4 624022 1910 1981 72 0.796 0.226 1.101 3.518 0.163 0.768 5 624032 1892 1981 90 0.570 0.196 0.072 3.124 0.216 0.713 6 624041 1901 1981 81 0.714 0.246 0.575 2.582 0.230 0.666 7 624042 1906 1981 76 0.883 0.266 0.452 3.102 0.216 0.578 8 624051 1882 1981 100 0.553 0.221 0.524 2.566 0.219 0.758 9 624052 1889 1981 93 0.587 0.181 0.459 2.937 0.233 0.512 10 624061 1894 1981 88 0.776 0.257 0.889 4.256 0.248 0.539 11 624062 1885 1952 68 0.622 0.236 1.145 4.463 0.238 0.639 12 624071 1854 1981 128 0.580 0.215 1.188 4.440 0.186 0.771 13 624072 1829 1981 153 0.611 0.307 1.534 6.106 0.201 0.778 14 624081 1853 1981 129 0.683 0.287 0.411 2.199 0.241 0.725 15 624082 1849 1981 133 0.710 0.230 0.188 2.819 0.240 0.644 16 624091 1839 1981 143 0.241 0.155 1.714 6.585 0.350 0.792 17 624092 1847 1981 135 0.351 0.226 1.274 4.530 0.296 0.855 18 624101 1872 1981 110 0.521 0.245 0.671 3.136 0.258 0.698 19 624102 1887 1981 95 0.400 0.195 1.128 3.974 0.305 0.728 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 624111 1907 1981 75 0.457 0.193 0.613 3.532 0.391 0.513 21 624112 1880 1981 102 0.587 0.254 0.644 3.403 0.357 0.468 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1806 TO 1981 176 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 0.616 0.234 0.792 3.696 0.244 0.689 STANDARD DEVIATION 30 0.163 0.038 0.442 1.159 0.064 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 101 0.611 0.235 0.671 3.403 0.233 0.725 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.167 0.042 0.669 1.503 0.058 0.131 MINIMUM VALUE 68 0.241 0.155 0.072 2.199 0.150 0.468 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 0.553 0.215 0.459 2.937 0.201 0.639 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 133 0.720 0.257 1.128 4.440 0.258 0.771 MAXIMUM VALUE 176 0.883 0.307 1.714 6.585 0.391 0.855 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.457 0.230 0.016 -1.109 3.541 -0.192 0.799 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.192 SERIES 624042 AND 624052 76 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.799 SERIES 624091 AND 624092 135 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 52.12 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 3. 28. 78. 190. RBAR 0.228 0.342 0.486 0.480 SDEV 0.128 0.167 0.161 0.240 SERR 0.074 0.031 0.018 0.017 EPS 0.686 0.872 0.947 0.951 NSS 7.4 13.1 18.9 20.9 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1806 1981 176 0.726 0.259 0.837 3.380 0.160 0.806 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.226 -0.094 0.278 47 129 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.45 1.00 1.04 1.49 3.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.11 0.00 0.81 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 102. 45. 68. 88. 133. 176. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.802 0.743 0.709 0.663 0.682 0.676 0.642 0.621 0.642 0.602 PACF 0.802 0.281 0.170 0.050 0.210 0.110 -0.007 0.007 0.166 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.151 0.228 0.278 0.316 0.346 0.375 0.402 0.425 0.445 0.466 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.706 0.510 0.199 0.186 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 624011 1 1.00584269 0.00615998 0.00000000 0.06710444 2 624012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00445032 1.13737595 3 624021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00501339 1.12018800 4 624022 1 0.71639937 0.06452709 0.00000000 0.64813256 5 624032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017039 0.56180274 6 624041 1 0.87797213 0.01150686 0.00000000 0.14641839 7 624042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00347163 0.74963158 8 624051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00508749 0.81021816 9 624052 1 0.50639099 0.02559993 0.00000000 0.39685649 10 624061 1 0.23062545 0.03191154 0.00000000 0.70019102 11 624062 1 0.66273278 0.02665199 0.00000000 0.32000470 12 624071 1 0.62941319 0.02419920 0.00000000 0.38816503 13 624072 1 0.83036417 0.01466493 0.00000000 0.28284800 14 624081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00551571 1.04131174 15 624082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00323273 0.92659259 16 624091 1 0.47918394 0.01907692 0.00000000 0.07858842 17 624092 1 0.71687174 0.02381255 0.00000000 0.13931964 18 624101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00451787 0.76969075 19 624102 1 0.49348408 0.04776716 0.00000000 0.29465082 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 624111 1 0.28187191 0.04681029 0.00000000 0.38058767 21 624112 1 0.51608622 0.01832903 0.00000000 0.35742080 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 624011 1831 1981 151 1.000 0.255 0.238 3.775 0.188 0.598 2 624012 1806 1981 176 1.001 0.253 -0.085 2.801 0.196 0.564 3 624021 1869 1981 113 1.000 0.188 1.000 6.232 0.148 0.503 4 624022 1910 1981 72 1.000 0.174 -0.208 2.877 0.159 0.404 5 624032 1892 1981 90 1.000 0.346 0.126 3.246 0.214 0.703 6 624041 1901 1981 81 1.000 0.268 0.298 2.506 0.226 0.446 7 624042 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.293 0.615 3.399 0.213 0.511 8 624051 1882 1981 100 1.004 0.287 -0.295 2.940 0.217 0.595 9 624052 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.235 0.539 3.579 0.229 0.147 10 624061 1894 1981 88 1.000 0.314 0.656 4.052 0.245 0.510 11 624062 1885 1952 68 1.000 0.280 0.798 3.180 0.235 0.439 12 624071 1854 1981 128 1.000 0.238 0.522 3.879 0.185 0.546 13 624072 1829 1981 153 1.000 0.347 0.727 2.903 0.199 0.718 14 624081 1853 1981 129 1.000 0.283 -0.051 2.443 0.240 0.466 15 624082 1849 1981 133 1.001 0.273 -0.097 3.615 0.239 0.487 16 624091 1839 1981 143 1.002 0.352 0.450 3.349 0.347 0.312 17 624092 1847 1981 135 1.005 0.458 1.940 9.236 0.293 0.702 18 624101 1872 1981 110 1.009 0.412 0.713 3.171 0.259 0.612 19 624102 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.376 0.417 2.866 0.302 0.515 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 624111 1907 1981 75 1.000 0.382 -0.069 2.406 0.386 0.373 21 624112 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.397 0.802 4.547 0.349 0.351 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 1.001 0.305 0.430 3.667 0.241 0.500 STANDARD DEVIATION 30 0.002 0.074 0.513 1.533 0.063 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.287 0.450 3.246 0.229 0.510 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.001 0.097 0.764 0.898 0.060 0.156 MINIMUM VALUE 68 1.000 0.174 -0.295 2.406 0.148 0.147 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.255 -0.051 2.877 0.199 0.439 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 133 1.001 0.352 0.713 3.775 0.259 0.595 MAXIMUM VALUE 176 1.009 0.458 1.940 9.236 0.386 0.718 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 624011 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 624012 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 624021 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 624022 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 624032 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 624041 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 624042 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 624051 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 624052 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 624061 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 624062 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 624071 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 624072 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 624081 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 624082 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 624091 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 624092 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 624101 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 624102 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 624111 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 624112 -67 68 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 624011 1831 1981 151 0.997 0.233 0.013 3.655 0.188 0.509 2 624012 1806 1981 176 0.998 0.244 -0.057 2.735 0.196 0.528 3 624021 1869 1981 113 0.999 0.184 1.116 6.977 0.148 0.485 4 624022 1910 1981 72 0.999 0.167 -0.129 2.906 0.159 0.348 5 624032 1892 1981 90 0.995 0.304 -0.360 2.511 0.214 0.664 6 624041 1901 1981 81 0.997 0.249 0.396 2.682 0.226 0.362 7 624042 1906 1981 76 0.993 0.235 0.189 3.074 0.211 0.322 8 624051 1882 1981 100 0.995 0.265 -0.124 3.063 0.215 0.520 9 624052 1889 1981 93 0.997 0.214 0.533 3.757 0.230 -0.025 10 624061 1894 1981 88 0.996 0.283 0.388 3.861 0.244 0.408 11 624062 1885 1952 68 0.995 0.248 0.708 3.126 0.235 0.290 12 624071 1854 1981 128 0.998 0.222 0.331 3.415 0.185 0.492 13 624072 1829 1981 153 0.995 0.323 0.804 3.192 0.199 0.673 14 624081 1853 1981 129 0.996 0.254 -0.207 2.691 0.240 0.326 15 624082 1849 1981 133 0.997 0.259 -0.158 3.812 0.238 0.432 16 624091 1839 1981 143 0.998 0.340 0.445 3.525 0.347 0.283 17 624092 1847 1981 135 0.995 0.359 0.460 4.179 0.293 0.529 18 624101 1872 1981 110 0.986 0.313 0.691 4.089 0.258 0.416 19 624102 1887 1981 95 0.994 0.338 0.399 2.951 0.301 0.394 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 624111 1907 1981 75 0.997 0.372 -0.096 2.528 0.386 0.314 21 624112 1880 1981 102 0.997 0.375 0.754 4.609 0.348 0.254 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 0.996 0.275 0.290 3.492 0.241 0.406 STANDARD DEVIATION 30 0.003 0.060 0.401 0.989 0.063 0.153 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 102 0.997 0.259 0.388 3.192 0.230 0.408 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.002 0.088 0.628 0.907 0.059 0.186 MINIMUM VALUE 68 0.986 0.167 -0.360 2.511 0.148 -0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 0.995 0.235 -0.096 2.906 0.199 0.322 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 133 0.997 0.323 0.533 3.812 0.258 0.509 MAXIMUM VALUE 176 0.999 0.375 1.116 6.977 0.386 0.673 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.273 0.149 0.010 0.109 3.015 -0.104 0.670 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.104 SERIES 624092 AND 624111 75 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.670 SERIES 624111 AND 624112 75 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 52.12 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 3. 28. 78. 190. RBAR 0.162 0.311 0.332 0.322 SDEV 0.123 0.147 0.174 0.173 SERR 0.071 0.028 0.020 0.013 EPS 0.588 0.856 0.904 0.908 NSS 7.4 13.1 18.9 20.9 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1806 1981 176 0.998 0.170 0.019 3.009 0.165 0.263 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.134 0.080 0.119 40 136 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.67 1.00 1.06 1.73 5.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.82 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.262 0.041 0.007 -0.042 -0.042 0.077 0.081 -0.053 0.033 -0.019 PACF 0.262 -0.030 0.004 -0.047 -0.020 0.101 0.038 -0.095 0.073 -0.044 95% C.L. 0.151 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.162 0.163 0.164 0.164 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.069 0.262 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.186 0.010 0.020 0.033 -0.060 0.078 0.064 -0.116 0.041 0.136 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.186 2 0.190 -0.026 3 0.191 -0.030 0.024 4 0.190 -0.030 0.019 0.026 5 0.192 -0.028 0.017 0.040 -0.073 6 0.200 -0.033 0.015 0.043 -0.094 0.107 7 0.197 -0.030 0.014 0.043 -0.093 0.102 0.027 8 0.201 -0.016 0.001 0.049 -0.091 0.098 0.055 -0.138 9 0.215 -0.021 -0.009 0.058 -0.096 0.098 0.056 -0.159 0.102 10 0.205 -0.005 -0.015 0.048 -0.086 0.092 0.057 -0.157 0.080 0.102 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1213.32 1209.14 1211.03 1212.93 1214.80 1215.86 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1215.82 1217.69 1216.29 1216.45 1216.62 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.186 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.45 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.57 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.186 0.034 0.006 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 624011 1 0.264 0.509 2 624012 1 0.280 0.528 3 624021 1 0.239 0.489 4 624022 1 0.135 0.351 5 624032 1 0.466 0.683 6 624041 1 0.140 0.364 7 624042 1 0.151 0.329 8 624051 1 0.276 0.524 9 624052 1 0.003 -0.025 10 624061 1 0.168 0.410 11 624062 1 0.092 0.291 12 624071 1 0.249 0.499 13 624072 1 0.480 0.689 14 624081 1 0.109 0.329 15 624082 1 0.192 0.433 16 624091 1 0.094 0.284 17 624092 1 0.285 0.530 18 624101 1 0.192 0.419 19 624102 1 0.161 0.397 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 624111 1 0.156 0.319 21 624112 1 0.075 0.254 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.200 0.410 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.118 0.156 MEDIAN 1 0.168 0.410 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.128 0.180 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.003 -0.025 LOWER HINGE 1 0.135 0.329 UPPER HINGE 1 0.264 0.509 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.480 0.689 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 624011 1831 1981 151 1.000 0.200 -0.230 3.422 0.223 -0.038 2 624012 1806 1981 176 1.000 0.207 -0.035 3.051 0.238 -0.013 3 624021 1869 1981 113 1.000 0.160 0.882 6.073 0.181 0.012 4 624022 1910 1981 72 1.000 0.156 -0.478 2.844 0.186 -0.040 5 624032 1892 1981 90 1.000 0.219 0.029 2.803 0.257 -0.015 6 624041 1901 1981 81 1.000 0.232 0.560 3.068 0.258 0.034 7 624042 1906 1981 76 1.000 0.221 0.412 3.223 0.239 0.065 8 624051 1882 1981 100 1.000 0.225 0.451 2.800 0.251 -0.019 9 624052 1889 1981 93 1.000 0.214 0.509 3.677 0.228 0.001 10 624061 1894 1981 88 1.000 0.258 0.044 5.437 0.292 0.008 11 624062 1885 1952 68 1.000 0.238 0.831 3.555 0.256 0.024 12 624071 1854 1981 128 1.000 0.192 0.032 3.371 0.222 -0.002 13 624072 1829 1981 153 1.000 0.232 0.239 3.865 0.264 -0.087 14 624081 1853 1981 129 1.000 0.239 -0.260 3.274 0.282 -0.011 15 624082 1849 1981 133 1.000 0.233 -0.726 4.490 0.280 0.034 16 624091 1839 1981 143 1.000 0.326 0.364 3.558 0.387 -0.032 17 624092 1847 1981 135 1.000 0.304 0.517 4.333 0.332 -0.038 18 624101 1872 1981 110 1.000 0.284 0.848 4.261 0.311 -0.062 19 624102 1887 1981 95 1.001 0.308 0.049 3.555 0.359 0.023 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 624111 1907 1981 75 1.000 0.352 -0.213 2.582 0.457 -0.079 21 624112 1880 1981 102 1.000 0.362 0.756 4.631 0.402 -0.027 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 110 1.000 0.246 0.218 3.708 0.281 -0.012 STANDARD DEVIATION 30 0.000 0.057 0.452 0.893 0.071 0.038 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 102 1.000 0.232 0.239 3.555 0.258 -0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.000 0.070 0.552 1.194 0.073 0.050 MINIMUM VALUE 68 1.000 0.156 -0.726 2.582 0.181 -0.087 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.214 -0.035 3.068 0.238 -0.038 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 133 1.000 0.284 0.517 4.261 0.311 0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 176 1.001 0.362 0.882 6.073 0.457 0.065 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.359 0.122 0.008 0.187 2.867 0.034 0.734 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.034 SERIES 624021 AND 624032 90 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.734 SERIES 624111 AND 624112 75 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 52.12 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 3. 28. 78. 190. RBAR 0.384 0.403 0.409 0.399 SDEV 0.173 0.118 0.135 0.138 SERR 0.100 0.022 0.015 0.010 EPS 0.822 0.899 0.929 0.933 NSS 7.4 13.1 18.9 20.9 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1806 1981 176 1.002 0.158 -0.070 2.956 0.191 -0.176 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.093 0.050 0.106 39 137 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.60 1.01 1.08 1.68 3.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.13 0.00 0.81 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.175 -0.088 0.016 -0.026 -0.066 0.073 0.076 -0.135 0.069 0.025 PACF -0.175 -0.122 -0.023 -0.040 -0.082 0.040 0.087 -0.099 0.041 0.026 95% C.L. 0.151 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.159 0.161 0.162 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.046 -0.196 -0.123 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.021 -0.122 -0.003 -0.036 -0.062 0.080 0.069 -0.117 0.055 0.039 PACF -0.021 -0.122 -0.009 -0.052 -0.067 0.067 0.058 -0.102 0.064 0.020 95% C.L. 0.151 0.151 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.154 0.155 0.155 0.157 0.158 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.016 -0.021 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1806 1981 176 1.002 0.157 0.058 3.076 0.161 0.143 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.142 -0.096 -0.029 -0.049 -0.053 0.077 0.063 -0.092 0.042 0.041 PACF 0.142 -0.118 0.003 -0.059 -0.041 0.084 0.028 -0.097 0.083 0.007 95% C.L. 0.151 0.154 0.155 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.157 0.157 0.159 0.159 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.034 0.159 -0.119 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES