RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR009E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR009E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 662 1 Ceadar Valley (trocken) WIDTH_EARLY CEBR - 662 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1280 3459-3241 1675 1981 - 662 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 662032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1946 1946 / 1948 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 662071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1918 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 662092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1977 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 662101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 0.351 0.150 1.215 6.378 0.318 0.521 2 662012 1797 1981 185 0.388 0.151 0.356 3.078 0.328 0.474 3 662021 1675 1981 307 0.495 0.294 0.762 3.527 0.295 0.840 4 662022 1728 1981 254 0.458 0.291 1.410 6.462 0.319 0.825 5 662031 1815 1981 167 0.487 0.241 0.194 2.424 0.327 0.687 6 662032 1820 1981 162 0.471 0.240 0.340 3.030 0.305 0.719 7 662041 1798 1981 184 0.490 0.225 0.819 3.398 0.269 0.733 8 662042 1778 1981 204 0.529 0.226 0.333 2.599 0.258 0.746 9 662051 1866 1981 116 0.405 0.192 0.763 3.381 0.343 0.623 10 662061 1802 1981 180 0.398 0.196 0.972 3.485 0.312 0.711 11 662062 1798 1981 184 0.352 0.134 0.733 3.861 0.331 0.471 12 662071 1763 1981 219 0.308 0.157 0.619 3.020 0.315 0.687 13 662072 1825 1981 157 0.262 0.126 1.101 4.041 0.291 0.718 14 662081 1801 1981 181 0.554 0.265 1.015 3.651 0.259 0.723 15 662082 1802 1981 180 0.444 0.193 0.888 4.007 0.267 0.669 16 662091 1844 1981 138 0.447 0.217 0.528 2.939 0.355 0.651 17 662092 1819 1981 163 0.658 0.320 0.384 2.562 0.319 0.685 18 662101 1763 1981 219 0.371 0.150 0.427 3.168 0.271 0.671 19 662102 1758 1981 224 0.457 0.213 0.460 3.733 0.280 0.713 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 0.385 0.135 1.050 4.021 0.290 0.384 21 662112 1887 1981 95 0.515 0.208 1.554 6.456 0.321 0.423 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1675 TO 1981 307 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 0.439 0.206 0.758 3.772 0.303 0.651 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.090 0.056 0.377 1.208 0.028 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 0.447 0.208 0.762 3.485 0.312 0.687 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.105 0.089 0.589 0.978 0.042 0.096 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.262 0.126 0.194 2.424 0.258 0.384 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.385 0.151 0.427 3.030 0.280 0.623 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 0.490 0.240 1.015 4.007 0.321 0.719 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 0.658 0.320 1.554 6.462 0.355 0.840 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.556 0.161 0.011 -1.522 6.270 -0.080 0.878 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.080 SERIES 662021 AND 662071 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.878 SERIES 662041 AND 662042 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.741 0.689 0.270 0.338 0.356 0.393 0.435 0.562 0.422 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.266 0.282 0.303 0.258 0.209 0.202 0.198 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.069 0.032 0.026 0.021 0.016 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.900 0.933 0.809 0.891 0.909 0.927 0.941 0.964 0.939 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.538 0.242 1.200 5.528 0.226 0.789 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.122 -0.049 0.160 56 251 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.54 1.00 1.08 1.62 239.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.17 0.00 0.79 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 181. 42. 94. 162. 204. 307. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.786 0.710 0.633 0.587 0.604 0.569 0.525 0.513 0.534 0.528 PACF 0.786 0.240 0.055 0.075 0.210 0.010 -0.044 0.083 0.170 0.007 95% C.L. 0.114 0.171 0.206 0.230 0.248 0.267 0.282 0.295 0.306 0.318 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.654 0.593 0.253 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 662011 1 0.40272054 0.01007635 0.00000000 0.17892277 2 662012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00110024 0.49037662 3 662021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00254851 0.88732392 4 662022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00277817 0.81224829 5 662031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00296224 0.73607385 6 662032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00346601 0.74692363 7 662041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00288033 0.75599605 8 662042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00273425 0.80908430 9 662051 1 0.48487034 0.01481138 0.00000000 0.17547506 10 662061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00235966 0.61166048 11 662062 1 0.33559859 0.00695210 0.00000000 0.16339988 12 662071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018158 0.32933035 13 662072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00123801 0.36028662 14 662081 1 0.89779019 0.00809455 0.00000000 0.08510598 15 662082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00229479 0.65151209 16 662091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00324195 0.67241722 17 662092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00446733 1.02278423 18 662101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00128086 0.51180100 19 662102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00223425 0.70880806 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 662111 1 0.21877363 0.02216647 0.00000000 0.29377264 21 662112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00358217 0.68647033 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 1.000 0.318 0.553 3.692 0.317 0.205 2 662012 1797 1981 185 0.997 0.361 0.321 2.842 0.326 0.349 3 662021 1675 1981 307 1.013 0.433 0.940 4.771 0.294 0.661 4 662022 1728 1981 254 0.997 0.405 0.924 5.127 0.318 0.522 5 662031 1815 1981 167 0.993 0.438 0.601 3.287 0.326 0.606 6 662032 1820 1981 162 0.991 0.429 0.872 4.878 0.325 0.599 7 662041 1798 1981 184 0.999 0.319 0.316 2.614 0.268 0.425 8 662042 1778 1981 204 0.993 0.290 0.104 2.929 0.257 0.440 9 662051 1866 1981 116 1.000 0.397 0.625 3.495 0.341 0.510 10 662061 1802 1981 180 1.006 0.358 0.182 2.726 0.311 0.489 11 662062 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.326 0.229 2.640 0.329 0.266 12 662071 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.509 0.626 3.007 0.313 0.689 13 662072 1825 1981 157 0.993 0.395 0.859 3.557 0.290 0.585 14 662081 1801 1981 181 1.001 0.308 0.350 2.732 0.258 0.428 15 662082 1802 1981 180 1.001 0.329 0.352 2.925 0.266 0.489 16 662091 1844 1981 138 0.994 0.408 0.627 2.895 0.353 0.419 17 662092 1819 1981 163 0.988 0.371 0.535 2.951 0.323 0.447 18 662101 1763 1981 219 0.998 0.352 0.806 5.502 0.273 0.556 19 662102 1758 1981 224 0.989 0.360 0.643 3.538 0.279 0.476 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.312 0.709 3.528 0.286 0.276 21 662112 1887 1981 95 1.001 0.334 0.848 4.069 0.318 0.242 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 0.998 0.369 0.572 3.510 0.303 0.461 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.006 0.055 0.256 0.874 0.028 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 0.999 0.360 0.625 3.287 0.313 0.476 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.007 0.080 0.456 0.797 0.045 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.988 0.290 0.104 2.614 0.257 0.205 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 0.993 0.326 0.350 2.895 0.279 0.419 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 1.000 0.405 0.806 3.692 0.325 0.556 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.013 0.509 0.940 5.502 0.353 0.689 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 662011 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 662012 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 662021 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 662022 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 662031 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 662032 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 662041 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 662042 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 662051 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 662061 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 662062 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 662071 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 662072 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 662081 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 662082 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 662091 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 662092 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 662101 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 662102 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 662111 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 662112 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 0.998 0.310 0.514 3.650 0.317 0.168 2 662012 1797 1981 185 0.995 0.326 0.415 3.185 0.326 0.185 3 662021 1675 1981 307 0.997 0.398 0.496 3.479 0.294 0.623 4 662022 1728 1981 254 0.995 0.384 0.795 4.701 0.318 0.471 5 662031 1815 1981 167 0.985 0.388 0.732 3.829 0.325 0.486 6 662032 1820 1981 162 0.989 0.388 0.805 4.775 0.324 0.502 7 662041 1798 1981 184 0.997 0.304 0.279 2.601 0.267 0.383 8 662042 1778 1981 204 0.997 0.265 0.071 3.150 0.256 0.306 9 662051 1866 1981 116 0.997 0.377 0.474 3.172 0.340 0.462 10 662061 1802 1981 180 0.994 0.318 0.042 3.119 0.311 0.347 11 662062 1798 1981 184 0.999 0.323 0.233 2.661 0.329 0.254 12 662071 1763 1981 219 0.990 0.408 0.868 5.556 0.313 0.506 13 662072 1825 1981 157 0.990 0.310 0.607 2.993 0.289 0.318 14 662081 1801 1981 181 0.998 0.300 0.331 2.657 0.257 0.396 15 662082 1802 1981 180 0.998 0.323 0.344 2.932 0.266 0.473 16 662091 1844 1981 138 0.994 0.386 0.751 3.613 0.354 0.295 17 662092 1819 1981 163 0.995 0.327 0.294 2.720 0.323 0.268 18 662101 1763 1981 219 0.996 0.330 0.662 5.198 0.273 0.494 19 662102 1758 1981 224 0.998 0.349 0.836 3.832 0.279 0.408 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 0.997 0.295 0.815 4.079 0.286 0.194 21 662112 1887 1981 95 0.997 0.316 0.965 4.253 0.317 0.155 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 0.995 0.339 0.539 3.626 0.303 0.366 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.004 0.040 0.272 0.863 0.029 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 0.997 0.326 0.514 3.479 0.313 0.383 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.003 0.074 0.464 1.086 0.045 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.985 0.265 0.042 2.601 0.256 0.155 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 0.994 0.310 0.331 2.993 0.279 0.268 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 0.997 0.384 0.795 4.079 0.324 0.473 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 0.999 0.408 0.965 5.556 0.354 0.623 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.388 0.151 0.010 -0.581 3.234 -0.064 0.710 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.064 SERIES 662061 AND 662071 180 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.710 SERIES 662041 AND 662042 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.713 0.631 0.280 0.383 0.401 0.379 0.421 0.460 0.416 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.287 0.251 0.271 0.249 0.208 0.195 0.178 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.074 0.028 0.023 0.020 0.016 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.887 0.915 0.817 0.909 0.923 0.922 0.938 0.947 0.937 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.988 0.256 0.460 3.716 0.236 0.329 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.219 0.109 0.091 65 242 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.72 1.00 1.11 1.82 6.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.16 0.00 0.80 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.328 0.268 0.125 0.115 0.162 0.131 0.031 -0.052 0.037 -0.027 PACF 0.328 0.180 -0.007 0.041 0.117 0.038 -0.081 -0.099 0.086 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.114 0.126 0.133 0.135 0.136 0.138 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.137 0.269 0.180 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.154 0.203 0.094 0.116 0.167 0.190 0.044 -0.081 0.027 -0.048 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.154 2 0.126 0.183 3 0.118 0.178 0.042 4 0.115 0.166 0.034 0.066 5 0.107 0.162 0.013 0.051 0.129 6 0.090 0.155 0.011 0.030 0.115 0.133 7 0.097 0.161 0.013 0.030 0.123 0.137 -0.052 8 0.088 0.184 0.034 0.035 0.126 0.165 -0.036 -0.170 9 0.091 0.185 0.031 0.033 0.125 0.164 -0.039 -0.171 0.019 10 0.092 0.176 0.028 0.042 0.132 0.166 -0.038 -0.161 0.024 -0.054 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2494.59 2489.21 2480.72 2482.17 2482.83 2479.64 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2476.20 2477.36 2470.40 2472.28 2473.39 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.126 0.183 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.65 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.99 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.126 0.199 0.048 0.043 0.014 0.010 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.0005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 662011 2 0.038 0.155 0.073 2 662012 2 0.083 0.144 0.220 3 662021 2 0.405 0.532 0.150 4 662022 2 0.249 0.385 0.185 5 662031 2 0.310 0.346 0.297 6 662032 2 0.320 0.412 0.224 7 662041 2 0.168 0.327 0.150 8 662042 2 0.131 0.246 0.197 9 662051 2 0.249 0.368 0.205 10 662061 2 0.173 0.267 0.233 11 662062 2 0.086 0.219 0.139 12 662071 2 0.279 0.417 0.175 13 662072 2 0.174 0.228 0.285 14 662081 2 0.238 0.307 0.230 15 662082 2 0.278 0.362 0.240 16 662091 2 0.125 0.236 0.201 17 662092 2 0.076 0.253 0.061 18 662101 2 0.285 0.379 0.232 19 662102 2 0.175 0.369 0.099 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 662111 2 0.038 0.191 0.018 21 662112 2 0.029 0.165 -0.067 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.186 0.300 0.169 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.107 0.102 0.090 MEDIAN 2 0.174 0.307 0.197 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.191 0.141 0.091 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.029 0.144 -0.067 LOWER HINGE 2 0.086 0.228 0.139 UPPER HINGE 2 0.278 0.369 0.230 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.405 0.532 0.297 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 1.000 0.304 0.547 3.771 0.339 0.005 2 662012 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.313 0.360 2.918 0.346 -0.009 3 662021 1675 1981 307 1.000 0.307 0.205 3.575 0.346 0.004 4 662022 1728 1981 254 1.000 0.333 0.372 3.983 0.377 0.000 5 662031 1815 1981 167 1.000 0.322 0.669 3.817 0.368 0.001 6 662032 1820 1981 162 1.000 0.321 0.386 4.654 0.380 0.010 7 662041 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.277 0.059 3.346 0.317 -0.005 8 662042 1778 1981 204 1.000 0.247 0.072 3.424 0.285 0.010 9 662051 1866 1981 116 1.000 0.327 0.444 2.957 0.386 -0.008 10 662061 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.290 0.068 3.229 0.347 -0.017 11 662062 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.310 -0.008 2.743 0.369 0.009 12 662071 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.346 0.964 6.761 0.370 -0.005 13 662072 1825 1981 157 1.000 0.282 0.581 3.241 0.313 -0.001 14 662081 1801 1981 181 1.000 0.267 0.254 3.183 0.303 -0.050 15 662082 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.276 0.090 3.856 0.314 -0.025 16 662091 1844 1981 138 1.001 0.357 0.386 3.424 0.393 0.007 17 662092 1819 1981 163 1.000 0.314 0.269 2.797 0.351 0.000 18 662101 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.279 0.472 3.995 0.314 0.004 19 662102 1758 1981 224 1.000 0.317 0.594 4.515 0.338 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.290 0.713 3.555 0.309 0.000 21 662112 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.312 0.876 3.918 0.350 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 1.000 0.304 0.399 3.698 0.344 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.000 0.027 0.273 0.869 0.030 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.310 0.386 3.555 0.346 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.039 0.376 0.689 0.055 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.247 -0.008 2.743 0.285 -0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 1.000 0.282 0.205 3.229 0.314 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 1.000 0.321 0.581 3.918 0.369 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.001 0.357 0.964 6.761 0.393 0.010 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.474 0.146 0.010 -1.229 4.559 0.025 0.751 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.025 SERIES 662061 AND 662071 180 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.751 SERIES 662061 AND 662062 180 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.737 0.656 0.400 0.493 0.500 0.490 0.525 0.544 0.471 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.238 0.194 0.220 0.234 0.194 0.166 0.138 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.062 0.022 0.019 0.019 0.015 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.899 0.923 0.884 0.940 0.947 0.949 0.958 0.962 0.949 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.994 0.225 0.328 3.686 0.263 -0.075 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.158 0.072 0.087 75 232 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.48 1.00 1.11 1.58 9.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.19 0.00 0.78 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.075 -0.022 -0.068 -0.020 0.098 0.096 -0.053 -0.101 0.070 -0.053 PACF -0.075 -0.028 -0.072 -0.032 0.091 0.107 -0.036 -0.095 0.072 -0.057 95% C.L. 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.006 -0.071 -0.016 0.103 0.097 -0.049 -0.100 0.059 -0.044 PACF -0.002 -0.006 -0.071 -0.016 0.102 0.094 -0.051 -0.089 0.077 -0.057 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.119 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.005 -0.002 -0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.994 0.230 0.535 4.031 0.238 0.139 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.139 0.189 0.002 0.045 0.106 0.091 -0.015 -0.078 0.048 -0.046 PACF 0.139 0.173 -0.046 0.018 0.112 0.057 -0.075 -0.096 0.093 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.114 0.116 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.051 0.115 0.174 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES