RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR009L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR009L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 662 1 Ceadar Valley (trocken) WIDTH_LATE CEBR - 662 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1280 3459-3241 1675 1981 - 662 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 662021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1967 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 662032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1946 1946 / 1948 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 662071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1918 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 662092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1977 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 662101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 0.240 0.123 1.576 5.811 0.226 0.732 2 662012 1797 1981 185 0.242 0.104 0.462 3.049 0.223 0.748 3 662021 1675 1981 307 0.180 0.109 1.407 5.207 0.210 0.819 4 662022 1728 1981 254 0.192 0.146 2.356 9.678 0.244 0.840 5 662031 1815 1981 167 0.205 0.101 1.105 5.967 0.266 0.564 6 662032 1820 1981 162 0.224 0.121 1.613 7.812 0.297 0.577 7 662041 1798 1981 184 0.334 0.237 1.961 7.151 0.337 0.713 8 662042 1778 1981 204 0.322 0.200 1.615 5.987 0.325 0.625 9 662051 1866 1981 116 0.393 0.245 2.008 7.977 0.352 0.517 10 662061 1802 1981 180 0.225 0.142 2.382 10.035 0.296 0.610 11 662062 1798 1981 184 0.172 0.078 1.851 6.633 0.278 0.582 12 662071 1763 1981 219 0.186 0.099 1.043 4.741 0.316 0.622 13 662072 1825 1981 157 0.132 0.054 2.044 8.851 0.269 0.439 14 662081 1801 1981 181 0.222 0.156 3.548 23.153 0.302 0.510 15 662082 1802 1981 180 0.195 0.178 3.075 15.550 0.329 0.714 16 662091 1844 1981 138 0.199 0.124 2.911 16.169 0.282 0.552 17 662092 1819 1981 163 0.326 0.203 1.914 8.676 0.323 0.567 18 662101 1763 1981 219 0.257 0.097 0.999 3.815 0.234 0.602 19 662102 1758 1981 224 0.285 0.145 1.430 4.999 0.253 0.670 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 0.259 0.105 1.306 4.025 0.252 0.490 21 662112 1887 1981 95 0.382 0.209 1.638 5.394 0.339 0.518 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1675 TO 1981 307 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 0.246 0.142 1.821 8.128 0.283 0.620 STANDARD DEVIATION 48 0.070 0.053 0.737 4.841 0.043 0.108 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 0.225 0.124 1.638 6.633 0.282 0.602 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.090 0.074 0.637 3.644 0.071 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.132 0.054 0.462 3.049 0.210 0.439 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.195 0.104 1.407 5.207 0.252 0.552 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 0.285 0.178 2.044 8.851 0.323 0.713 MAXIMUM VALUE 300 0.393 0.245 3.548 23.153 0.352 0.840 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.430 0.173 0.012 -0.432 2.827 -0.053 0.788 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.053 SERIES 662071 AND 662081 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.788 SERIES 662041 AND 662042 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.006 0.163 0.176 0.246 0.244 0.291 0.210 0.375 0.283 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.210 0.298 0.288 0.229 0.181 0.203 0.205 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.054 0.034 0.025 0.019 0.014 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.019 0.550 0.709 0.840 0.853 0.889 0.846 0.927 0.892 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.263 0.111 1.287 5.586 0.196 0.746 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.279 0.177 0.036 114 193 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.73 1.69 1.00 1.21 2.90 106.76 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 181. 42. 94. 162. 204. 307. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.743 0.618 0.547 0.487 0.465 0.458 0.460 0.420 0.442 0.428 PACF 0.743 0.146 0.104 0.050 0.098 0.090 0.092 -0.025 0.136 0.013 95% C.L. 0.114 0.166 0.193 0.213 0.227 0.239 0.250 0.261 0.269 0.279 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.579 0.626 0.082 0.101 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 662011 1 0.41022190 0.02051324 0.00000000 0.14282100 2 662012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00154534 0.38539189 3 662021 1 0.37127227 0.00738186 0.00000000 0.03078283 4 662022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00135837 0.36476642 5 662031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00105365 0.29347667 6 662032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00122283 0.32049334 7 662041 1 0.70611954 0.01042463 0.00000000 0.02112886 8 662042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00244808 0.57274175 9 662051 1 0.74971974 0.04327684 0.00000000 0.24759519 10 662061 1 0.37203959 0.01676706 0.00000000 0.10879244 11 662062 1 0.16301966 0.01919251 0.00000000 0.12790360 12 662071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056236 0.24823980 13 662072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034384 0.15920137 14 662081 1 0.36445850 0.01031997 0.00000000 0.05803434 15 662082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00179341 0.35708132 16 662091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00128359 0.28848514 17 662092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00204023 0.49225935 18 662101 1 0.22786491 0.01353877 0.00000000 0.18430161 19 662102 1 0.43852082 0.00623472 0.00000000 0.04900889 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 662111 1 0.31169376 0.02239668 0.00000000 0.13037238 21 662112 1 0.48105884 0.03419699 0.00000000 0.24177973 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 1.000 0.267 0.740 3.598 0.225 0.372 2 662012 1797 1981 185 0.996 0.261 0.517 3.678 0.222 0.414 3 662021 1675 1981 307 0.999 0.288 0.823 4.327 0.209 0.456 4 662022 1728 1981 254 1.101 0.634 2.599 11.212 0.245 0.725 5 662031 1815 1981 167 1.000 0.497 3.268 22.955 0.265 0.469 6 662032 1820 1981 162 1.000 0.541 2.686 15.400 0.304 0.492 7 662041 1798 1981 184 1.006 0.395 1.149 4.711 0.335 0.352 8 662042 1778 1981 204 1.050 0.454 1.163 4.238 0.323 0.497 9 662051 1866 1981 116 1.000 0.387 0.816 3.600 0.349 0.246 10 662061 1802 1981 180 1.001 0.366 1.038 3.932 0.294 0.311 11 662062 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.349 1.124 4.354 0.277 0.390 12 662071 1763 1981 219 0.995 0.490 1.194 5.567 0.312 0.569 13 662072 1825 1981 157 1.000 0.371 1.699 7.685 0.268 0.363 14 662081 1801 1981 181 1.000 0.573 5.635 48.643 0.301 0.277 15 662082 1802 1981 180 1.049 0.703 2.288 10.721 0.329 0.658 16 662091 1844 1981 138 0.995 0.526 2.518 10.482 0.280 0.524 17 662092 1819 1981 163 0.989 0.531 2.322 9.886 0.320 0.481 18 662101 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.299 0.793 4.021 0.232 0.416 19 662102 1758 1981 224 1.000 0.392 2.781 15.451 0.251 0.454 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.265 1.596 6.953 0.249 0.061 21 662112 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.431 1.618 6.099 0.336 0.234 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 1.009 0.430 1.827 9.882 0.282 0.417 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.026 0.126 1.189 10.225 0.042 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.395 1.596 6.099 0.280 0.416 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.001 0.177 1.481 6.483 0.071 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.989 0.261 0.517 3.598 0.209 0.061 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 1.000 0.349 1.038 4.238 0.249 0.352 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 1.000 0.526 2.518 10.721 0.320 0.492 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.101 0.703 5.635 48.643 0.349 0.725 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 662011 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 662012 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 662021 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 662022 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 662031 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 662032 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 662041 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 662042 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 662051 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 662061 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 662062 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 662071 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 662072 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 662081 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 662082 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 662091 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 662092 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 662101 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 662102 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 662111 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 662112 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 0.999 0.259 0.692 3.637 0.225 0.337 2 662012 1797 1981 185 0.998 0.251 0.460 3.395 0.222 0.369 3 662021 1675 1981 307 1.000 0.287 0.821 4.344 0.209 0.449 4 662022 1728 1981 254 0.991 0.365 1.661 6.750 0.244 0.480 5 662031 1815 1981 167 0.986 0.430 2.574 16.181 0.264 0.416 6 662032 1820 1981 162 0.984 0.459 1.868 9.242 0.304 0.433 7 662041 1798 1981 184 0.998 0.380 1.128 4.702 0.335 0.307 8 662042 1778 1981 204 0.994 0.340 1.174 4.677 0.323 0.116 9 662051 1866 1981 116 0.998 0.378 0.814 3.650 0.348 0.213 10 662061 1802 1981 180 0.999 0.358 1.113 4.318 0.294 0.279 11 662062 1798 1981 184 0.999 0.343 1.241 4.596 0.277 0.358 12 662071 1763 1981 219 0.984 0.395 1.041 5.092 0.313 0.373 13 662072 1825 1981 157 0.993 0.318 1.335 5.555 0.268 0.210 14 662081 1801 1981 181 0.997 0.561 5.699 49.717 0.301 0.264 15 662082 1802 1981 180 0.983 0.599 2.640 14.036 0.329 0.578 16 662091 1844 1981 138 0.991 0.465 2.641 12.491 0.281 0.436 17 662092 1819 1981 163 0.991 0.453 1.932 8.635 0.320 0.374 18 662101 1763 1981 219 0.999 0.295 0.754 3.965 0.233 0.407 19 662102 1758 1981 224 0.997 0.369 2.508 13.610 0.252 0.417 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 0.999 0.255 1.678 8.056 0.249 0.001 21 662112 1887 1981 95 0.996 0.412 1.406 5.091 0.335 0.207 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 0.994 0.380 1.675 9.130 0.282 0.334 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.006 0.093 1.142 10.077 0.042 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 0.997 0.369 1.335 5.092 0.281 0.369 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.008 0.112 0.891 4.898 0.071 0.153 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.983 0.251 0.460 3.395 0.209 0.001 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 0.991 0.318 1.041 4.344 0.249 0.264 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 0.999 0.430 1.932 9.242 0.320 0.417 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.000 0.599 5.699 49.717 0.348 0.578 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.245 0.148 0.010 -0.125 3.057 -0.165 0.656 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.165 SERIES 662021 AND 662112 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.656 SERIES 662061 AND 662062 180 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.138 -0.007 0.131 0.202 0.283 0.264 0.224 0.300 0.294 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.213 0.232 0.263 0.230 0.166 0.183 0.183 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.055 0.026 0.023 0.019 0.013 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.337 -0.046 0.632 0.802 0.876 0.875 0.856 0.900 0.897 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.968 0.229 1.160 5.212 0.196 0.353 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.317 0.212 0.016 93 214 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.17 1.01 1.08 2.25 1311.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.36 0.00 0.63 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.351 0.191 0.044 0.048 0.086 0.046 0.042 -0.084 -0.003 -0.028 PACF 0.351 0.077 -0.052 0.039 0.075 -0.015 0.013 -0.117 0.059 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.114 0.127 0.131 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.129 0.352 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.268 0.151 0.002 0.080 0.116 0.010 0.058 -0.076 0.043 -0.023 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.268 2 0.245 0.086 3 0.250 0.101 -0.063 4 0.256 0.092 -0.085 0.089 5 0.248 0.100 -0.094 0.065 0.093 6 0.254 0.105 -0.100 0.072 0.110 -0.068 7 0.258 0.098 -0.105 0.078 0.104 -0.084 0.059 8 0.264 0.090 -0.094 0.085 0.093 -0.074 0.085 -0.100 9 0.270 0.084 -0.090 0.079 0.088 -0.068 0.080 -0.117 0.063 10 0.272 0.081 -0.087 0.077 0.091 -0.065 0.077 -0.114 0.071 -0.031 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2427.05 2406.19 2405.93 2406.70 2406.28 2405.60 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2406.16 2407.07 2405.96 2406.75 2408.46 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.245 0.086 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 7.86 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.53 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.245 0.146 0.057 0.026 0.011 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 662011 2 0.135 0.286 0.152 2 662012 2 0.140 0.357 0.037 3 662021 2 0.216 0.397 0.118 4 662022 2 0.255 0.405 0.160 5 662031 2 0.252 0.299 0.293 6 662032 2 0.224 0.364 0.165 7 662041 2 0.128 0.250 0.191 8 662042 2 0.027 0.103 0.115 9 662051 2 0.050 0.206 0.032 10 662061 2 0.094 0.257 0.101 11 662062 2 0.132 0.349 0.037 12 662071 2 0.192 0.287 0.238 13 662072 2 0.068 0.180 0.151 14 662081 2 0.076 0.244 0.080 15 662082 2 0.395 0.408 0.296 16 662091 2 0.203 0.435 0.006 17 662092 2 0.157 0.362 0.035 18 662101 2 0.181 0.357 0.125 19 662102 2 0.175 0.420 -0.004 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 662111 2 0.004 0.001 0.060 21 662112 2 0.048 0.196 0.057 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.150 0.293 0.116 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.092 0.112 0.087 MEDIAN 2 0.140 0.299 0.115 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.127 0.120 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.004 0.001 -0.004 LOWER HINGE 2 0.076 0.244 0.037 UPPER HINGE 2 0.203 0.364 0.160 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.395 0.435 0.296 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 1.000 0.241 0.745 3.779 0.257 -0.005 2 662012 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.233 0.547 3.190 0.258 0.000 3 662021 1675 1981 307 1.000 0.254 0.864 5.854 0.259 -0.006 4 662022 1728 1981 254 1.000 0.316 1.394 6.755 0.298 -0.011 5 662031 1815 1981 167 1.000 0.373 3.460 23.132 0.291 0.022 6 662032 1820 1981 162 1.000 0.407 2.192 12.421 0.371 0.020 7 662041 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.355 1.112 4.592 0.374 -0.001 8 662042 1778 1981 204 1.000 0.335 1.181 4.733 0.338 0.001 9 662051 1866 1981 116 1.000 0.369 0.923 3.810 0.385 -0.002 10 662061 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.340 1.242 4.749 0.336 -0.011 11 662062 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.319 1.145 4.432 0.327 -0.003 12 662071 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.355 1.217 6.249 0.364 -0.015 13 662072 1825 1981 157 1.000 0.307 1.223 5.133 0.299 0.005 14 662081 1801 1981 181 1.002 0.534 5.610 48.562 0.344 0.037 15 662082 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.466 2.631 17.864 0.407 -0.017 16 662091 1844 1981 138 1.000 0.418 2.852 16.312 0.356 -0.001 17 662092 1819 1981 163 1.000 0.420 1.939 10.274 0.383 0.004 18 662101 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.267 1.064 4.732 0.270 0.005 19 662102 1758 1981 224 1.000 0.335 2.720 16.670 0.310 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.254 1.638 7.862 0.248 0.002 21 662112 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.402 1.428 5.382 0.371 -0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 1.000 0.348 1.768 10.309 0.326 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.000 0.077 1.173 10.411 0.049 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.340 1.242 5.854 0.336 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.095 1.080 7.689 0.079 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.233 0.547 3.190 0.248 -0.017 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 1.000 0.307 1.112 4.732 0.291 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 1.000 0.402 2.192 12.421 0.371 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.002 0.534 5.610 48.562 0.407 0.037 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.270 0.141 0.010 -0.154 2.982 -0.094 0.668 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.094 SERIES 662021 AND 662112 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.668 SERIES 662031 AND 662032 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR -0.014 -0.079 0.154 0.243 0.326 0.306 0.212 0.298 0.293 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.180 0.204 0.224 0.214 0.149 0.169 0.164 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.047 0.023 0.019 0.017 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS -0.046 -0.857 0.676 0.838 0.897 0.896 0.848 0.899 0.897 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.982 0.206 1.288 6.115 0.215 0.007 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.267 0.179 0.013 101 206 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.46 1.49 1.00 1.09 2.58 10.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 -0.055 -0.078 -0.008 0.054 -0.006 0.069 -0.121 0.021 -0.021 PACF 0.007 -0.055 -0.077 -0.010 0.046 -0.014 0.074 -0.117 0.031 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.118 0.118 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 0.000 -0.074 -0.011 0.054 -0.014 0.075 -0.124 0.029 -0.026 PACF -0.004 0.000 -0.074 -0.011 0.054 -0.019 0.073 -0.117 0.029 -0.020 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.117 0.118 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.006 -0.005 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.982 0.213 1.242 5.697 0.192 0.253 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.252 0.131 -0.008 0.012 0.054 0.003 0.051 -0.096 0.009 -0.019 PACF 0.252 0.072 -0.062 0.019 0.060 -0.029 0.049 -0.121 0.052 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.114 0.121 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.125 0.125 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.069 0.253 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES