RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR009N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR009N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 662 1 Ceadar Valley (trocken) DENSITY_MINIMUM CEBR - 662 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1280 3459-3241 1675 1981 - 662 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 662032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1946 1946 / 1948 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 662041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1811 1815 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 662051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1908 1912 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 662061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1866 1871 / 1962 1966 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 662071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1918 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 662092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1977 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 662101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 0.429 0.024 0.243 3.428 0.054 0.272 2 662012 1797 1981 185 0.422 0.029 0.364 3.228 0.061 0.335 3 662021 1675 1981 307 0.397 0.040 1.568 8.167 0.058 0.698 4 662022 1728 1981 254 0.400 0.038 0.852 3.565 0.060 0.650 5 662031 1815 1981 167 0.406 0.038 1.273 7.087 0.069 0.462 6 662032 1820 1981 162 0.401 0.038 0.708 3.389 0.065 0.500 7 662041 1798 1981 184 0.391 0.028 0.685 3.387 0.055 0.483 8 662042 1778 1981 204 0.390 0.027 0.875 4.110 0.052 0.501 9 662051 1866 1981 116 0.438 0.036 0.844 5.929 0.063 0.441 10 662061 1802 1981 180 0.400 0.029 0.535 3.251 0.061 0.354 11 662062 1798 1981 184 0.408 0.024 0.450 3.854 0.054 0.313 12 662071 1763 1981 219 0.431 0.039 1.666 9.845 0.066 0.376 13 662072 1825 1981 157 0.427 0.035 0.862 6.670 0.065 0.426 14 662081 1801 1981 181 0.396 0.021 0.458 3.884 0.056 0.029 15 662082 1802 1981 180 0.415 0.033 1.064 4.508 0.066 0.391 16 662091 1844 1981 138 0.417 0.032 0.636 3.697 0.071 0.303 17 662092 1819 1981 163 0.416 0.032 1.439 7.915 0.063 0.307 18 662101 1763 1981 219 0.428 0.044 0.892 3.252 0.056 0.738 19 662102 1758 1981 224 0.432 0.044 0.686 2.875 0.058 0.714 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 0.461 0.031 -0.058 2.384 0.056 0.425 21 662112 1887 1981 95 0.451 0.035 -0.211 2.764 0.061 0.529 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1675 TO 1981 307 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 180 0.417 0.033 0.754 4.628 0.060 0.440 STANDARD DEVIATION 50 0.020 0.006 0.482 2.094 0.005 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 180 0.416 0.033 0.708 3.697 0.061 0.426 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.028 0.008 0.433 2.677 0.009 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.390 0.021 -0.211 2.384 0.052 0.029 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.400 0.029 0.458 3.252 0.056 0.335 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 0.429 0.038 0.892 5.929 0.065 0.501 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 0.461 0.044 1.666 9.845 0.071 0.738 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.505 0.145 0.010 -0.290 2.642 0.110 0.863 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.110 SERIES 662071 AND 662081 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.863 SERIES 662031 AND 662032 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.565 0.411 0.262 0.271 0.286 0.341 0.509 0.535 0.384 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.152 0.152 0.189 0.204 0.192 0.137 0.167 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.039 0.017 0.016 0.016 0.015 0.009 0.012 EPS 0.804 0.814 0.803 0.856 0.878 0.910 0.955 0.960 0.929 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.404 0.025 0.524 3.562 0.047 0.525 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.498 0.249 -0.079 65 242 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.47 1.00 1.06 1.53 8.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.22 0.00 0.75 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 181. 42. 94. 162. 204. 307. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.523 0.527 0.510 0.510 0.534 0.506 0.516 0.468 0.507 0.512 PACF 0.523 0.348 0.232 0.188 0.201 0.118 0.124 0.023 0.106 0.104 95% C.L. 0.114 0.142 0.166 0.185 0.202 0.220 0.235 0.249 0.260 0.273 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.473 0.119 0.141 0.104 0.118 0.168 0.109 0.130 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 662011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013190 0.41533431 2 662012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012558 0.41026673 3 662021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020863 0.36503735 4 662022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030482 0.36085960 5 662031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044068 0.36885145 6 662032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056023 0.35642704 7 662041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018398 0.37475350 8 662042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021258 0.36850479 9 662051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033370 0.41643354 10 662061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026120 0.37612379 11 662062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011057 0.39814147 12 662071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013884 0.41566682 13 662072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007104 0.42094806 14 662081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002748 0.39346594 15 662082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001564 0.41358474 16 662091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049823 0.38218448 17 662092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037668 0.38536388 18 662101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040876 0.38358551 19 662102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048574 0.37772021 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 662111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00059054 0.43343857 21 662112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00090062 0.40771779 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 1.000 0.054 0.044 3.681 0.053 0.193 2 662012 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.068 0.203 3.028 0.060 0.303 3 662021 1675 1981 307 1.000 0.088 0.883 6.480 0.057 0.608 4 662022 1728 1981 254 1.000 0.077 0.495 3.533 0.060 0.474 5 662031 1815 1981 167 1.000 0.075 1.546 8.163 0.069 0.194 6 662032 1820 1981 162 1.000 0.072 0.939 3.847 0.067 0.228 7 662041 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.067 0.619 3.153 0.055 0.428 8 662042 1778 1981 204 1.000 0.061 0.303 3.236 0.052 0.366 9 662051 1866 1981 116 1.000 0.080 1.295 8.713 0.062 0.406 10 662061 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.067 0.936 4.687 0.061 0.237 11 662062 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.057 0.457 3.794 0.054 0.274 12 662071 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.088 1.602 8.902 0.066 0.338 13 662072 1825 1981 157 1.000 0.082 0.788 6.341 0.065 0.418 14 662081 1801 1981 181 1.000 0.054 0.462 3.855 0.056 0.026 15 662082 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.080 1.084 4.525 0.066 0.390 16 662091 1844 1981 138 1.000 0.061 0.301 3.355 0.071 -0.106 17 662092 1819 1981 163 1.000 0.064 1.523 9.383 0.064 0.014 18 662101 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.081 0.338 3.564 0.056 0.602 19 662102 1758 1981 224 1.000 0.071 0.160 2.530 0.058 0.435 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.057 0.537 3.095 0.055 0.233 21 662112 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.056 -0.377 3.217 0.061 0.115 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 1.000 0.069 0.673 4.813 0.060 0.294 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.000 0.011 0.530 2.212 0.005 0.185 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.068 0.537 3.794 0.060 0.303 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.019 0.636 3.105 0.009 0.224 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.054 -0.377 2.530 0.052 -0.106 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 1.000 0.061 0.303 3.236 0.056 0.194 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 1.000 0.080 0.939 6.341 0.065 0.418 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.000 0.088 1.602 9.383 0.071 0.608 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 662011 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 662012 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 662021 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 662022 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 662031 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 662032 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 662041 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 662042 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 662051 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 662061 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 662062 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 662071 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 662072 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 662081 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 662082 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 662091 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 662092 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 662101 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 662102 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 662111 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 662112 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 1.000 0.051 0.082 3.819 0.053 0.117 2 662012 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.056 0.184 3.264 0.060 -0.028 3 662021 1675 1981 307 1.000 0.072 0.738 5.926 0.057 0.426 4 662022 1728 1981 254 1.000 0.059 0.664 4.082 0.060 0.108 5 662031 1815 1981 167 1.000 0.069 1.489 8.105 0.069 0.060 6 662032 1820 1981 162 1.000 0.066 0.825 3.676 0.067 0.095 7 662041 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.056 0.698 3.980 0.055 0.155 8 662042 1778 1981 204 1.000 0.051 0.519 3.383 0.052 0.102 9 662051 1866 1981 116 1.000 0.074 1.314 8.919 0.062 0.311 10 662061 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.061 0.947 4.696 0.061 0.091 11 662062 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.052 0.454 3.701 0.054 0.132 12 662071 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.081 1.851 10.144 0.066 0.222 13 662072 1825 1981 157 1.000 0.070 1.415 8.785 0.065 0.199 14 662081 1801 1981 181 1.000 0.053 0.464 3.769 0.056 -0.004 15 662082 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.070 0.995 5.421 0.066 0.190 16 662091 1844 1981 138 1.000 0.059 0.333 3.400 0.071 -0.190 17 662092 1819 1981 163 1.000 0.062 1.722 11.012 0.064 -0.043 18 662101 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.065 0.685 4.664 0.056 0.387 19 662102 1758 1981 224 1.000 0.059 0.035 2.878 0.058 0.190 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.049 0.321 2.583 0.055 0.006 21 662112 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.051 -0.303 3.366 0.060 -0.080 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 1.000 0.061 0.735 5.218 0.060 0.116 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.000 0.009 0.572 2.565 0.005 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.059 0.685 3.980 0.060 0.108 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.016 0.662 2.526 0.009 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.049 -0.303 2.583 0.052 -0.190 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 1.000 0.053 0.333 3.400 0.056 0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 1.000 0.069 0.995 5.926 0.065 0.190 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.000 0.081 1.851 11.012 0.071 0.426 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.379 0.133 0.009 -0.793 3.967 -0.044 0.748 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.044 SERIES 662051 AND 662071 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.748 SERIES 662031 AND 662032 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.475 0.364 0.276 0.264 0.311 0.344 0.460 0.464 0.383 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.152 0.152 0.185 0.193 0.179 0.155 0.159 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.039 0.017 0.016 0.016 0.014 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.741 0.782 0.813 0.852 0.890 0.911 0.946 0.948 0.929 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.999 0.043 0.311 3.231 0.048 -0.007 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.161 0.080 -0.044 94 213 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.80 1.01 1.10 1.90 49.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.26 0.00 0.72 0.99 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.007 0.065 -0.008 0.026 0.082 0.063 0.056 -0.032 0.077 0.040 PACF -0.007 0.065 -0.007 0.022 0.083 0.062 0.048 -0.038 0.068 0.039 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.154 0.107 -0.052 0.062 0.043 0.108 0.045 -0.072 0.045 0.007 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.154 2 -0.140 0.085 3 -0.138 0.082 -0.024 4 -0.137 0.078 -0.018 0.044 5 -0.140 0.080 -0.023 0.053 0.067 6 -0.148 0.074 -0.021 0.044 0.083 0.117 7 -0.157 0.067 -0.024 0.045 0.078 0.128 0.074 8 -0.151 0.077 -0.018 0.049 0.076 0.133 0.062 -0.076 9 -0.150 0.076 -0.020 0.047 0.075 0.133 0.061 -0.074 0.015 10 -0.150 0.078 -0.021 0.045 0.074 0.132 0.061 -0.076 0.018 0.018 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1429.37 1424.03 1423.78 1425.60 1427.01 1427.63 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1425.42 1425.74 1425.94 1427.87 1429.77 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.140 0.085 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.07 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.17 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.140 0.105 -0.027 0.013 -0.004 0.002 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 662011 2 0.019 0.110 0.064 2 662012 2 0.032 -0.023 0.172 3 662021 2 0.235 0.332 0.222 4 662022 2 0.049 0.091 0.151 5 662031 2 0.084 0.044 0.280 6 662032 2 0.028 0.082 0.137 7 662041 2 0.037 0.140 0.108 8 662042 2 0.018 0.094 0.082 9 662051 2 0.100 0.318 -0.019 10 662061 2 0.049 0.073 0.200 11 662062 2 0.061 0.106 0.198 12 662071 2 0.051 0.213 0.040 13 662072 2 0.106 0.170 0.142 14 662081 2 0.010 -0.004 0.095 15 662082 2 0.058 0.167 0.145 16 662091 2 0.078 -0.179 0.062 17 662092 2 0.022 -0.037 0.141 18 662101 2 0.249 0.272 0.298 19 662102 2 0.045 0.175 0.083 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 662111 2 0.060 0.005 0.244 21 662112 2 0.057 -0.062 0.223 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.069 0.099 0.146 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.063 0.127 0.082 MEDIAN 2 0.051 0.094 0.142 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.046 0.166 0.117 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.010 -0.179 -0.019 LOWER HINGE 2 0.032 0.005 0.083 UPPER HINGE 2 0.078 0.170 0.200 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.249 0.332 0.298 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 1.000 0.051 0.147 3.699 0.056 0.002 2 662012 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.055 0.192 3.214 0.060 -0.007 3 662021 1675 1981 307 1.000 0.063 0.864 6.102 0.068 -0.027 4 662022 1728 1981 254 1.000 0.058 0.741 4.150 0.063 -0.019 5 662031 1815 1981 167 1.000 0.066 1.207 6.199 0.069 0.009 6 662032 1820 1981 162 1.000 0.065 0.732 3.527 0.070 0.001 7 662041 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.055 0.837 4.359 0.060 -0.005 8 662042 1778 1981 204 1.000 0.050 0.575 3.578 0.055 0.002 9 662051 1866 1981 116 1.000 0.070 1.256 8.424 0.072 0.001 10 662061 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.060 0.996 5.006 0.063 -0.006 11 662062 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.050 0.456 3.871 0.057 -0.013 12 662071 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.079 2.115 12.106 0.073 0.001 13 662072 1825 1981 157 1.000 0.068 1.630 9.208 0.071 -0.032 14 662081 1801 1981 181 1.000 0.052 0.477 3.807 0.056 -0.002 15 662082 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.068 1.058 5.972 0.071 -0.006 16 662091 1844 1981 138 1.000 0.057 0.215 3.382 0.064 0.012 17 662092 1819 1981 163 1.000 0.061 1.769 11.627 0.061 0.002 18 662101 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.058 0.429 3.837 0.066 -0.052 19 662102 1758 1981 224 1.000 0.058 0.003 3.163 0.063 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.048 0.312 2.650 0.052 -0.003 21 662112 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.050 -0.279 3.614 0.058 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 1.000 0.059 0.749 5.309 0.063 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.000 0.008 0.607 2.767 0.006 0.015 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.058 0.732 3.871 0.063 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.012 0.746 2.524 0.012 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.048 -0.279 2.650 0.052 -0.052 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 1.000 0.052 0.312 3.578 0.058 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 1.000 0.065 1.058 6.102 0.069 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.000 0.079 2.115 12.106 0.073 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.406 0.130 0.009 -1.157 4.654 0.019 0.750 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.019 SERIES 662051 AND 662071 116 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.750 SERIES 662031 AND 662032 162 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.544 0.406 0.350 0.300 0.362 0.385 0.477 0.484 0.409 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.155 0.140 0.173 0.185 0.177 0.149 0.153 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.016 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.010 0.011 EPS 0.791 0.811 0.860 0.873 0.911 0.924 0.950 0.952 0.936 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.999 0.044 0.213 3.765 0.052 -0.136 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.170 0.077 -0.045 93 214 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.81 1.01 1.07 1.88 15.09 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.38 0.00 0.60 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.135 -0.125 -0.032 -0.013 0.053 0.043 0.027 -0.074 0.052 0.039 PACF -0.135 -0.146 -0.074 -0.050 0.030 0.048 0.054 -0.045 0.053 0.045 95% C.L. 0.114 0.116 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.045 -0.155 -0.146 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.011 -0.017 -0.072 -0.023 0.063 0.049 0.041 -0.053 0.054 0.040 PACF -0.011 -0.017 -0.073 -0.025 0.060 0.045 0.041 -0.042 0.064 0.045 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.006 -0.011 -0.017 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.999 0.044 0.275 3.402 0.052 -0.170 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.169 0.098 -0.089 -0.007 0.054 0.027 0.052 -0.059 0.060 0.025 PACF -0.169 0.072 -0.063 -0.038 0.062 0.045 0.053 -0.042 0.046 0.057 95% C.L. 0.114 0.117 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.034 -0.169 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES