RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR009P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR009P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 662 1 Ceadar Valley (trocken) LATEWOOD_PERCENT CEBR - 662 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1280 3459-3241 1675 1981 - 662 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 662032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1946 1946 / 1948 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 662071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1918 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 662092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1977 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 662101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 4.034 0.813 0.495 3.459 0.206 0.170 2 662012 1797 1981 185 3.838 0.905 0.626 3.786 0.203 0.396 3 662021 1675 1981 307 2.801 0.957 1.597 6.889 0.227 0.545 4 662022 1728 1981 254 3.026 0.949 1.037 4.267 0.261 0.365 5 662031 1815 1981 167 3.074 0.741 0.999 4.130 0.245 0.041 6 662032 1820 1981 162 3.346 0.942 0.878 3.377 0.261 0.282 7 662041 1798 1981 184 3.885 0.947 0.598 3.294 0.234 0.236 8 662042 1778 1981 204 3.698 0.926 0.371 2.992 0.245 0.258 9 662051 1866 1981 116 4.828 0.915 0.551 3.015 0.194 0.204 10 662061 1802 1981 180 3.600 0.871 1.105 3.912 0.206 0.297 11 662062 1798 1981 184 3.329 0.879 0.956 5.003 0.238 0.262 12 662071 1763 1981 219 3.827 1.001 0.761 3.470 0.211 0.452 13 662072 1825 1981 157 3.490 0.877 0.479 2.718 0.236 0.301 14 662081 1801 1981 181 2.810 0.753 1.083 5.019 0.237 0.242 15 662082 1802 1981 180 2.775 1.041 1.467 6.337 0.284 0.505 16 662091 1844 1981 138 3.149 0.948 1.423 6.280 0.231 0.330 17 662092 1819 1981 163 3.309 0.916 1.392 6.300 0.264 0.096 18 662101 1763 1981 219 4.177 0.870 0.999 5.934 0.161 0.474 19 662102 1758 1981 224 3.926 0.948 0.803 3.754 0.186 0.488 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 4.015 0.847 1.009 3.991 0.203 0.119 21 662112 1887 1981 95 4.162 0.962 0.440 2.794 0.233 0.176 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1675 TO 1981 307 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 3.576 0.905 0.908 4.320 0.227 0.297 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.538 0.074 0.361 1.317 0.029 0.141 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 3.600 0.916 0.956 3.912 0.233 0.282 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.777 0.077 0.486 1.642 0.039 0.192 MINIMUM VALUE 94 2.775 0.741 0.371 2.718 0.161 0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 3.149 0.871 0.598 3.377 0.206 0.204 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 3.926 0.948 1.083 5.019 0.245 0.396 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 4.828 1.041 1.597 6.889 0.284 0.545 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.231 0.156 0.011 -0.333 2.775 -0.239 0.635 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.239 SERIES 662102 AND 662111 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.635 SERIES 662041 AND 662042 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.376 0.288 0.127 0.267 0.291 0.258 0.320 0.299 0.196 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.147 0.197 0.202 0.232 0.195 0.190 0.167 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.038 0.022 0.017 0.019 0.015 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.656 0.717 0.624 0.854 0.881 0.871 0.907 0.900 0.837 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 3.397 0.622 0.137 2.999 0.161 0.362 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.569 0.443 -0.776 65 242 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.47 1.00 1.08 1.54 3.48 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.19 0.00 0.77 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 181. 42. 94. 162. 204. 307. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.361 0.395 0.326 0.347 0.371 0.355 0.326 0.301 0.322 0.294 PACF 0.361 0.304 0.149 0.156 0.174 0.122 0.066 0.035 0.075 0.029 95% C.L. 0.114 0.128 0.143 0.153 0.162 0.173 0.182 0.190 0.196 0.203 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.286 0.131 0.190 0.070 0.100 0.156 0.124 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 662011 1 1.20192420 0.02687684 0.00000000 3.81566668 2 662012 1 2.30404234 0.03453154 0.00000000 3.48380899 3 662021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00139109 2.58697772 4 662022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048035 2.96430612 5 662031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00323361 2.80190969 6 662032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00627530 2.83128548 7 662041 1 1.86544693 0.03289012 0.00000000 3.58284259 8 662042 1 1.61064517 0.03081783 0.00000000 3.44644690 9 662051 1 1.67226207 0.09149510 0.00000000 4.67712879 10 662061 1 1.45445716 0.06506578 0.00000000 3.47959018 11 662062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013262 3.34145236 12 662071 1 1.74140036 0.01647918 0.00000000 3.35753942 13 662072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00643436 2.98174906 14 662081 1 0.39540398 0.05282234 0.00000000 2.77022767 15 662082 1 3.33560658 0.00297300 0.00000000 0.19578452 16 662091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00527680 2.78239298 17 662092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00220766 3.12656546 18 662101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00177688 3.98173475 19 662102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00287474 3.60252881 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 662111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01318015 4.64126968 21 662112 1 1.88498342 0.10249241 0.00000000 3.97827530 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 1.000 0.189 0.471 3.590 0.205 0.045 2 662012 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.195 0.300 3.259 0.203 0.071 3 662021 1675 1981 307 1.000 0.331 1.302 5.746 0.227 0.524 4 662022 1728 1981 254 1.000 0.313 0.990 4.076 0.260 0.364 5 662031 1815 1981 167 1.000 0.238 1.129 4.362 0.243 -0.021 6 662032 1820 1981 162 1.000 0.269 1.064 4.589 0.264 0.187 7 662041 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.216 0.380 3.102 0.233 0.035 8 662042 1778 1981 204 1.000 0.233 0.419 3.287 0.244 0.115 9 662051 1866 1981 116 1.000 0.178 0.378 2.646 0.192 0.138 10 662061 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.228 0.980 3.686 0.205 0.239 11 662062 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.264 0.961 5.021 0.236 0.261 12 662071 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.237 0.893 4.407 0.209 0.323 13 662072 1825 1981 157 1.001 0.239 0.438 2.914 0.234 0.233 14 662081 1801 1981 181 1.000 0.267 1.147 5.298 0.236 0.233 15 662082 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.339 1.223 5.866 0.282 0.375 16 662091 1844 1981 138 1.000 0.289 1.287 6.278 0.229 0.306 17 662092 1819 1981 163 1.000 0.272 1.241 5.502 0.266 0.070 18 662101 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.205 0.877 5.501 0.161 0.456 19 662102 1758 1981 224 1.000 0.235 0.609 3.131 0.185 0.465 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.188 0.853 3.606 0.202 -0.050 21 662112 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.214 0.256 2.401 0.231 0.028 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 1.000 0.245 0.819 4.203 0.226 0.209 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.000 0.046 0.359 1.169 0.030 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.237 0.893 4.076 0.231 0.233 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.055 0.690 2.040 0.039 0.252 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.178 0.256 2.401 0.161 -0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 1.000 0.214 0.438 3.259 0.205 0.070 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 1.000 0.269 1.129 5.298 0.243 0.323 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.001 0.339 1.302 6.278 0.282 0.524 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 662011 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 662012 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 662021 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 662022 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 662031 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 662032 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 662041 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 662042 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 662051 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 662061 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 662062 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 662071 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 662072 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 662081 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 662082 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 662091 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 662092 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 662101 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 662102 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 662111 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 662112 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 1.000 0.186 0.455 3.493 0.205 0.013 2 662012 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.190 0.580 4.285 0.202 -0.019 3 662021 1675 1981 307 0.999 0.305 1.096 5.121 0.227 0.439 4 662022 1728 1981 254 0.998 0.278 0.913 4.072 0.260 0.228 5 662031 1815 1981 167 0.999 0.222 1.066 4.646 0.243 -0.120 6 662032 1820 1981 162 0.999 0.253 0.749 3.413 0.264 0.100 7 662041 1798 1981 184 0.999 0.210 0.436 3.318 0.233 -0.037 8 662042 1778 1981 204 0.999 0.217 0.641 3.812 0.243 -0.051 9 662051 1866 1981 116 1.000 0.176 0.309 2.494 0.192 0.121 10 662061 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.225 0.999 3.679 0.205 0.210 11 662062 1798 1981 184 0.999 0.254 0.937 4.627 0.236 0.212 12 662071 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.234 0.896 4.512 0.209 0.309 13 662072 1825 1981 157 0.999 0.213 0.552 3.402 0.234 0.016 14 662081 1801 1981 181 0.999 0.264 1.234 5.824 0.236 0.217 15 662082 1802 1981 180 0.996 0.326 1.308 6.598 0.282 0.311 16 662091 1844 1981 138 0.999 0.279 1.112 5.694 0.229 0.277 17 662092 1819 1981 163 0.999 0.262 1.044 4.411 0.266 0.004 18 662101 1763 1981 219 0.999 0.189 0.979 6.254 0.161 0.359 19 662102 1758 1981 224 0.998 0.192 0.373 2.876 0.185 0.196 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 0.999 0.181 0.905 3.731 0.202 -0.119 21 662112 1887 1981 95 0.999 0.206 0.255 2.416 0.231 -0.041 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 0.999 0.231 0.802 4.223 0.226 0.125 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.001 0.043 0.316 1.167 0.030 0.166 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 0.999 0.222 0.905 4.072 0.231 0.121 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.001 0.070 0.493 1.233 0.039 0.247 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.996 0.176 0.255 2.416 0.161 -0.120 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 0.999 0.192 0.552 3.413 0.205 -0.019 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 0.999 0.262 1.044 4.646 0.243 0.228 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.000 0.326 1.308 6.598 0.282 0.439 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.252 0.130 0.009 -0.563 3.096 -0.090 0.546 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.090 SERIES 662071 AND 662111 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.546 SERIES 662041 AND 662042 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.330 0.307 0.091 0.226 0.298 0.261 0.296 0.299 0.205 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.155 0.173 0.211 0.231 0.189 0.189 0.161 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.040 0.020 0.018 0.019 0.014 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.609 0.735 0.533 0.824 0.884 0.873 0.897 0.900 0.844 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.990 0.152 0.791 4.851 0.167 -0.020 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.326 0.209 -0.052 76 231 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.84 1.00 1.09 1.93 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.21 0.00 0.77 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.020 0.079 -0.077 0.049 0.062 0.068 0.017 -0.012 0.025 -0.073 PACF -0.020 0.079 -0.074 0.041 0.076 0.058 0.015 -0.013 0.026 -0.080 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.118 0.107 -0.133 0.026 -0.007 0.109 0.032 0.000 -0.028 -0.126 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.118 2 -0.107 0.094 3 -0.096 0.082 -0.113 4 -0.098 0.083 -0.114 -0.009 5 -0.097 0.085 -0.116 -0.008 0.018 6 -0.099 0.086 -0.104 -0.016 0.028 0.097 7 -0.105 0.084 -0.104 -0.010 0.023 0.103 0.055 8 -0.104 0.085 -0.103 -0.010 0.022 0.104 0.054 -0.008 9 -0.104 0.086 -0.102 -0.010 0.022 0.102 0.056 -0.010 -0.014 10 -0.106 0.085 -0.095 0.003 0.025 0.101 0.043 0.001 -0.027 -0.126 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2157.17 2154.84 2154.09 2152.13 2154.10 2156.00 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2155.07 2156.13 2158.11 2160.05 2157.15 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.096 0.082 -0.113 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.53 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.66 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.096 0.092 -0.130 0.031 -0.024 0.020 -0.007 0.005 -0.003 0.0016 -0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 662011 3 0.022 0.013 0.091 -0.009 2 662012 3 0.031 -0.028 0.149 0.076 3 662021 3 0.257 0.297 0.202 0.137 4 662022 3 0.081 0.184 0.145 0.058 5 662031 3 0.038 -0.106 0.132 0.012 6 662032 3 0.050 0.089 0.182 -0.038 7 662041 3 0.004 -0.036 0.035 0.008 8 662042 3 0.025 -0.038 0.132 -0.050 9 662051 3 0.028 0.109 0.069 0.045 10 662061 3 0.069 0.207 0.039 -0.090 11 662062 3 0.048 0.210 0.025 -0.045 12 662071 3 0.113 0.312 -0.048 0.137 13 662072 3 0.014 0.021 0.059 -0.093 14 662081 3 0.054 0.205 0.071 -0.027 15 662082 3 0.175 0.215 0.286 0.020 16 662091 3 0.085 0.260 0.083 -0.031 17 662092 3 0.036 0.012 0.126 -0.071 18 662101 3 0.170 0.297 0.153 0.028 19 662102 3 0.069 0.156 0.170 0.032 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 662111 3 0.060 -0.114 0.132 0.077 21 662112 3 0.019 -0.039 0.114 0.019 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.069 0.106 0.112 0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.063 0.139 0.072 0.065 MEDIAN 3 0.050 0.109 0.126 0.012 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.053 0.238 0.080 0.083 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.004 -0.114 -0.048 -0.093 LOWER HINGE 3 0.028 -0.028 0.069 -0.038 UPPER HINGE 3 0.081 0.210 0.149 0.045 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.257 0.312 0.286 0.137 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 1.000 0.185 0.456 3.489 0.206 0.001 2 662012 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.187 0.645 4.637 0.199 -0.006 3 662021 1675 1981 307 1.000 0.263 1.133 5.061 0.257 -0.003 4 662022 1728 1981 254 1.000 0.267 0.774 4.119 0.287 -0.003 5 662031 1815 1981 167 1.000 0.219 1.082 4.570 0.229 0.002 6 662032 1820 1981 162 1.000 0.248 0.730 3.338 0.274 -0.002 7 662041 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.210 0.443 3.349 0.227 0.000 8 662042 1778 1981 204 1.000 0.214 0.684 4.145 0.235 -0.003 9 662051 1866 1981 116 1.000 0.174 0.322 2.492 0.201 -0.002 10 662061 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.219 0.983 3.736 0.228 0.012 11 662062 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.248 0.911 4.582 0.261 0.000 12 662071 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.221 0.838 4.911 0.238 0.000 13 662072 1825 1981 157 1.000 0.211 0.610 3.613 0.234 0.003 14 662081 1801 1981 181 1.000 0.257 1.236 5.868 0.257 0.002 15 662082 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.296 1.282 7.636 0.305 0.000 16 662091 1844 1981 138 1.000 0.267 1.243 5.999 0.258 -0.001 17 662092 1819 1981 163 1.000 0.259 1.013 4.437 0.266 -0.008 18 662101 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.174 0.943 6.651 0.187 -0.004 19 662102 1758 1981 224 1.000 0.185 0.425 3.389 0.199 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.178 1.006 4.012 0.188 -0.014 21 662112 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.205 0.195 2.437 0.228 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 1.000 0.223 0.807 4.404 0.236 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.000 0.036 0.318 1.304 0.033 0.005 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.219 0.838 4.145 0.234 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.070 0.403 1.423 0.052 0.004 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.174 0.195 2.437 0.187 -0.014 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 1.000 0.187 0.610 3.489 0.206 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 1.000 0.257 1.013 4.911 0.258 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.000 0.296 1.282 7.636 0.305 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.269 0.130 0.009 -0.559 3.162 -0.090 0.556 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.090 SERIES 662021 AND 662071 219 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.556 SERIES 662061 AND 662062 180 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.440 0.247 0.147 0.249 0.306 0.284 0.307 0.315 0.227 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.145 0.173 0.206 0.235 0.186 0.180 0.156 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.038 0.020 0.018 0.019 0.014 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.713 0.673 0.663 0.842 0.888 0.885 0.902 0.906 0.860 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.994 0.151 0.680 4.352 0.174 -0.141 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.290 0.179 -0.037 78 229 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.60 1.00 1.07 1.68 6.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.24 0.00 0.73 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.141 -0.071 -0.123 0.041 0.052 0.038 -0.031 -0.037 0.063 -0.070 PACF -0.141 -0.093 -0.152 -0.010 0.033 0.040 -0.005 -0.025 0.061 -0.068 95% C.L. 0.114 0.116 0.117 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.051 -0.168 -0.116 -0.152 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.004 0.007 -0.002 0.036 0.038 -0.023 -0.043 0.036 -0.093 PACF -0.001 0.004 0.007 -0.002 0.036 0.038 -0.023 -0.044 0.036 -0.093 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.115 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 -0.001 0.004 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.994 0.149 0.698 4.300 0.171 -0.118 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.118 0.105 -0.126 0.032 0.011 0.044 -0.012 -0.038 0.033 -0.083 PACF -0.118 0.092 -0.106 -0.001 0.037 0.034 -0.005 -0.042 0.036 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.114 0.116 0.117 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.119 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.033 -0.097 0.081 -0.106 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES