RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR009W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR009W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 662 1 Ceadar Valley (trocken) WIDTH_RING CEBR - 662 2 Cyprus Cyprian cedar 1280 3459-3241 1675 1981 - 662 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 662032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1946 1946 / 1948 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 662071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1918 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 662092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1977 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 662101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 0.590 0.252 1.182 4.761 0.234 0.698 2 662012 1797 1981 185 0.630 0.225 0.097 2.880 0.247 0.648 3 662021 1675 1981 307 0.672 0.387 0.800 3.272 0.232 0.875 4 662022 1728 1981 254 0.650 0.417 1.716 7.713 0.256 0.877 5 662031 1815 1981 167 0.692 0.318 0.034 2.282 0.257 0.770 6 662032 1820 1981 162 0.695 0.335 0.597 4.528 0.245 0.760 7 662041 1798 1981 184 0.823 0.427 1.261 4.521 0.241 0.809 8 662042 1778 1981 204 0.851 0.391 0.802 3.608 0.233 0.758 9 662051 1866 1981 116 0.798 0.399 1.046 3.766 0.304 0.669 10 662061 1802 1981 180 0.623 0.310 1.239 4.155 0.276 0.753 11 662062 1798 1981 184 0.524 0.189 1.025 4.150 0.269 0.579 12 662071 1763 1981 219 0.493 0.234 0.546 3.003 0.274 0.712 13 662072 1825 1981 157 0.395 0.165 1.311 4.800 0.226 0.738 14 662081 1801 1981 181 0.777 0.386 1.276 4.517 0.238 0.730 15 662082 1802 1981 180 0.639 0.326 1.166 4.246 0.239 0.779 16 662091 1844 1981 138 0.646 0.305 0.701 3.091 0.304 0.677 17 662092 1819 1981 163 0.984 0.480 0.543 2.690 0.266 0.754 18 662101 1763 1981 219 0.628 0.224 0.499 2.999 0.216 0.698 19 662102 1758 1981 224 0.742 0.329 0.580 3.185 0.234 0.766 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 0.644 0.209 1.039 3.355 0.220 0.557 21 662112 1887 1981 95 0.896 0.367 1.424 5.611 0.288 0.603 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 21 FROM 1675 TO 1981 307 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 0.685 0.318 0.899 3.959 0.252 0.724 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.137 0.088 0.434 1.205 0.026 0.084 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 0.650 0.326 1.025 3.766 0.245 0.738 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 45 0.148 0.153 0.659 1.430 0.036 0.089 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.395 0.165 0.034 2.282 0.216 0.557 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 159 0.628 0.234 0.580 3.091 0.234 0.677 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 0.777 0.387 1.239 4.521 0.269 0.766 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 0.984 0.480 1.716 7.713 0.304 0.877 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.566 0.163 0.011 -1.428 5.651 -0.036 0.872 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.036 SERIES 662071 AND 662081 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.872 SERIES 662041 AND 662042 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.659 0.594 0.262 0.307 0.312 0.378 0.395 0.562 0.450 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.271 0.308 0.338 0.250 0.214 0.219 0.204 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.070 0.035 0.029 0.020 0.016 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.859 0.902 0.803 0.877 0.891 0.922 0.931 0.964 0.945 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.805 0.327 0.856 4.043 0.183 0.827 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.011 -0.005 0.201 77 230 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.49 0.80 1.02 1.20 2.00 10.62 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.22 0.00 0.75 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 181. 42. 94. 162. 204. 307. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.824 0.721 0.643 0.598 0.601 0.586 0.548 0.534 0.545 0.547 PACF 0.824 0.131 0.060 0.097 0.181 0.043 -0.024 0.080 0.137 0.039 95% C.L. 0.114 0.175 0.210 0.235 0.254 0.272 0.288 0.301 0.313 0.325 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.699 0.719 0.136 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 662011 1 0.78039843 0.01570913 0.00000000 0.35557210 2 662012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00264558 0.87576848 3 662021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00354860 1.21834135 4 662022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00413654 1.17701471 5 662031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00401589 1.02955055 6 662032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00468428 1.06725645 7 662041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00593430 1.37202072 8 662042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00518233 1.38182604 9 662051 1 1.13200021 0.02922018 0.00000000 0.48009899 10 662061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00404526 0.98926258 11 662062 1 0.47310820 0.00952222 0.00000000 0.30222356 12 662071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00073475 0.57509434 13 662072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00158184 0.51948798 14 662081 1 1.25537312 0.00875392 0.00000000 0.14943685 15 662082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00408820 1.00859344 16 662091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00452555 0.96090233 17 662092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00650659 1.51499188 18 662101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00215059 0.86425769 19 662102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00365823 1.15355945 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 662111 1 0.53060645 0.02227392 0.00000000 0.42389318 21 662112 1 1.04853594 0.01359755 0.00000000 0.31156337 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 1.000 0.257 0.468 3.368 0.233 0.328 2 662012 1797 1981 185 0.996 0.289 0.301 3.380 0.246 0.402 3 662021 1675 1981 307 1.025 0.387 1.362 6.552 0.232 0.686 4 662022 1728 1981 254 1.015 0.390 1.552 7.242 0.255 0.610 5 662031 1815 1981 167 0.995 0.423 1.137 6.723 0.256 0.658 6 662032 1820 1981 162 0.995 0.427 1.361 6.652 0.262 0.657 7 662041 1798 1981 184 1.012 0.329 0.901 3.848 0.239 0.533 8 662042 1778 1981 204 1.002 0.271 0.436 3.163 0.232 0.416 9 662051 1866 1981 116 1.000 0.351 0.527 3.536 0.302 0.459 10 662061 1802 1981 180 1.014 0.348 0.469 2.905 0.275 0.561 11 662062 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.279 0.297 2.541 0.268 0.327 12 662071 1763 1981 219 0.998 0.464 0.601 3.037 0.272 0.706 13 662072 1825 1981 157 0.996 0.345 1.026 4.393 0.224 0.631 14 662081 1801 1981 181 1.001 0.325 1.653 9.600 0.237 0.438 15 662082 1802 1981 180 1.005 0.359 0.653 3.625 0.238 0.639 16 662091 1844 1981 138 0.995 0.383 0.905 3.759 0.302 0.491 17 662092 1819 1981 163 0.989 0.373 0.943 3.370 0.266 0.598 18 662101 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.288 0.538 4.177 0.217 0.540 19 662102 1758 1981 224 0.995 0.321 1.473 6.769 0.233 0.512 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.248 0.935 4.118 0.218 0.312 21 662112 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.314 0.958 4.163 0.284 0.355 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 1.002 0.341 0.881 4.615 0.252 0.517 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.009 0.058 0.421 1.862 0.025 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.345 0.905 3.848 0.246 0.533 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.007 0.094 0.610 3.182 0.035 0.214 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.989 0.248 0.297 2.541 0.217 0.312 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 0.996 0.289 0.527 3.370 0.233 0.416 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 1.002 0.383 1.137 6.552 0.268 0.631 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.025 0.464 1.653 9.600 0.302 0.706 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 662011 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 662012 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 662021 -67 205 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 662022 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 662031 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 662032 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 662041 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 662042 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 662051 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 662061 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 662062 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 662071 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 662072 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 662081 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 662082 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 662091 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 662092 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 662101 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 662102 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 662111 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 662112 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 0.998 0.248 0.391 3.243 0.233 0.284 2 662012 1797 1981 185 0.997 0.267 0.382 3.643 0.245 0.286 3 662021 1675 1981 307 0.998 0.333 0.548 3.500 0.232 0.626 4 662022 1728 1981 254 0.995 0.340 1.151 5.902 0.255 0.538 5 662031 1815 1981 167 0.985 0.368 1.123 6.648 0.256 0.576 6 662032 1820 1981 162 0.988 0.371 1.054 5.322 0.261 0.576 7 662041 1798 1981 184 0.997 0.292 0.515 3.090 0.239 0.464 8 662042 1778 1981 204 0.997 0.248 0.444 3.550 0.232 0.314 9 662051 1866 1981 116 0.997 0.339 0.500 3.415 0.301 0.419 10 662061 1802 1981 180 0.996 0.294 0.301 3.373 0.275 0.392 11 662062 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.278 0.294 2.547 0.268 0.320 12 662071 1763 1981 219 0.987 0.356 0.658 5.051 0.272 0.505 13 662072 1825 1981 157 0.991 0.266 0.701 3.625 0.225 0.416 14 662081 1801 1981 181 0.998 0.317 1.654 9.506 0.237 0.416 15 662082 1802 1981 180 0.996 0.347 0.801 4.102 0.238 0.614 16 662091 1844 1981 138 0.993 0.345 0.774 3.322 0.302 0.350 17 662092 1819 1981 163 0.994 0.315 0.579 3.035 0.267 0.447 18 662101 1763 1981 219 0.998 0.276 0.480 4.135 0.217 0.502 19 662102 1758 1981 224 0.998 0.308 1.325 5.954 0.233 0.478 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 0.998 0.236 1.248 5.636 0.217 0.237 21 662112 1887 1981 95 0.998 0.302 0.992 4.318 0.284 0.314 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 0.995 0.307 0.758 4.425 0.252 0.432 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.004 0.041 0.380 1.628 0.025 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 0.997 0.308 0.658 3.643 0.245 0.419 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.004 0.064 0.574 1.948 0.035 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.985 0.236 0.294 2.547 0.217 0.237 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 0.994 0.276 0.480 3.373 0.233 0.320 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 0.998 0.340 1.054 5.322 0.268 0.505 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.000 0.371 1.654 9.506 0.302 0.626 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.372 0.156 0.011 -0.566 3.058 -0.083 0.730 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.083 SERIES 662071 AND 662081 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.730 SERIES 662061 AND 662062 180 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.649 0.496 0.260 0.330 0.366 0.349 0.391 0.460 0.449 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.291 0.264 0.294 0.251 0.200 0.202 0.178 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.075 0.030 0.025 0.020 0.015 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.854 0.861 0.801 0.888 0.912 0.913 0.930 0.947 0.945 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.986 0.224 0.401 3.161 0.190 0.432 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.229 0.114 0.063 78 229 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.56 1.01 1.11 1.67 8.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.22 0.00 0.76 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.430 0.302 0.157 0.124 0.163 0.135 0.028 -0.072 0.018 -0.008 PACF 0.430 0.143 -0.020 0.036 0.111 0.024 -0.100 -0.113 0.112 -0.021 95% C.L. 0.114 0.134 0.142 0.144 0.146 0.148 0.150 0.150 0.150 0.150 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.203 0.369 0.144 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.253 0.213 0.108 0.125 0.188 0.149 0.053 -0.099 0.036 -0.018 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.253 2 0.213 0.160 3 0.209 0.154 0.025 4 0.207 0.144 0.010 0.069 5 0.197 0.142 -0.010 0.040 0.140 6 0.189 0.140 -0.009 0.032 0.128 0.058 7 0.192 0.147 -0.007 0.032 0.136 0.068 -0.052 8 0.183 0.158 0.015 0.037 0.134 0.093 -0.020 -0.169 9 0.194 0.159 0.009 0.028 0.132 0.092 -0.030 -0.181 0.066 10 0.196 0.154 0.009 0.031 0.136 0.092 -0.030 -0.176 0.071 -0.029 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2412.94 2394.64 2388.71 2390.52 2391.04 2386.99 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2387.95 2389.12 2382.25 2382.93 2384.67 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.213 0.160 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.78 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.63 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.213 0.205 0.077 0.049 0.023 0.013 0.006 0.003 0.002 0.0009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 662011 2 0.093 0.254 0.106 2 662012 2 0.115 0.232 0.189 3 662021 2 0.405 0.558 0.114 4 662022 2 0.310 0.446 0.170 5 662031 2 0.389 0.431 0.263 6 662032 2 0.380 0.479 0.196 7 662041 2 0.247 0.375 0.194 8 662042 2 0.123 0.263 0.163 9 662051 2 0.194 0.363 0.136 10 662061 2 0.202 0.323 0.191 11 662062 2 0.122 0.278 0.137 12 662071 2 0.309 0.372 0.265 13 662072 2 0.228 0.312 0.254 14 662081 2 0.222 0.334 0.201 15 662082 2 0.442 0.427 0.307 16 662091 2 0.155 0.287 0.180 17 662092 2 0.205 0.454 -0.011 18 662101 2 0.281 0.407 0.188 19 662102 2 0.231 0.494 -0.031 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 662111 2 0.060 0.240 -0.009 21 662112 2 0.106 0.339 -0.075 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.230 0.365 0.149 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.111 0.091 0.103 MEDIAN 2 0.222 0.363 0.180 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.186 0.144 0.082 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.060 0.232 -0.075 LOWER HINGE 2 0.123 0.287 0.114 UPPER HINGE 2 0.309 0.431 0.196 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.442 0.558 0.307 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 662011 1781 1981 201 1.000 0.237 0.415 3.383 0.262 0.004 2 662012 1797 1981 185 1.000 0.252 0.428 3.436 0.272 0.006 3 662021 1675 1981 307 1.000 0.257 0.245 3.650 0.282 0.008 4 662022 1728 1981 254 1.000 0.283 0.625 4.814 0.306 -0.001 5 662031 1815 1981 167 1.000 0.287 1.197 6.470 0.300 0.018 6 662032 1820 1981 162 1.000 0.292 0.837 6.867 0.323 0.024 7 662041 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.253 0.339 3.725 0.285 0.004 8 662042 1778 1981 204 1.000 0.232 0.466 3.987 0.266 -0.001 9 662051 1866 1981 116 1.000 0.305 0.517 3.125 0.354 -0.007 10 662061 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.263 0.374 3.734 0.312 -0.029 11 662062 1798 1981 184 1.000 0.260 0.073 2.618 0.308 0.005 12 662071 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.295 0.634 6.424 0.323 0.006 13 662072 1825 1981 157 1.000 0.233 0.488 3.666 0.254 0.002 14 662081 1801 1981 181 1.000 0.282 1.242 9.521 0.288 -0.028 15 662082 1802 1981 180 1.000 0.260 0.412 4.259 0.289 -0.026 16 662091 1844 1981 138 1.000 0.318 0.524 3.553 0.353 -0.013 17 662092 1819 1981 163 1.000 0.281 0.542 3.439 0.311 -0.002 18 662101 1763 1981 219 1.000 0.235 0.441 3.624 0.260 0.011 19 662102 1758 1981 224 1.000 0.270 1.017 6.149 0.294 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 662111 1888 1981 94 1.000 0.230 1.169 5.775 0.244 -0.001 21 662112 1887 1981 95 1.000 0.285 0.852 3.486 0.312 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 182 1.000 0.267 0.611 4.557 0.295 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 49 0.000 0.026 0.323 1.693 0.030 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.263 0.517 3.725 0.294 0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 42 0.000 0.034 0.422 2.289 0.040 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.230 0.073 2.618 0.244 -0.029 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 1.000 0.252 0.415 3.486 0.272 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 204 1.000 0.285 0.837 5.775 0.312 0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 307 1.000 0.318 1.242 9.521 0.354 0.024 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 210 0.460 0.143 0.010 -1.136 4.263 0.039 0.763 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.039 SERIES 662071 AND 662081 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.763 SERIES 662061 AND 662062 180 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 50.18 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 1. 1. 15. 78. 136. 153. 171. 210. 210. RBAR 0.579 0.488 0.349 0.451 0.472 0.457 0.479 0.525 0.496 SDEV 0.000 0.000 0.231 0.215 0.218 0.215 0.180 0.167 0.130 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.060 0.024 0.019 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.009 EPS 0.813 0.857 0.860 0.930 0.942 0.943 0.950 0.959 0.954 NSS 3.2 6.3 11.4 16.0 18.0 19.5 20.7 21.0 21.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.995 0.189 0.291 3.313 0.217 -0.027 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.136 0.065 0.075 76 231 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.46 1.00 1.07 1.53 13.93 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.24 0.00 0.74 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.027 -0.028 -0.067 -0.032 0.096 0.096 -0.034 -0.140 0.035 -0.021 PACF -0.027 -0.029 -0.068 -0.037 0.091 0.097 -0.028 -0.130 0.044 -0.029 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.119 0.119 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.003 -0.066 -0.029 0.096 0.093 -0.032 -0.138 0.033 -0.020 PACF -0.002 -0.003 -0.066 -0.030 0.096 0.090 -0.035 -0.130 0.050 -0.024 95% C.L. 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.119 0.119 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.005 -0.002 -0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1675 1981 307 0.995 0.197 0.452 3.260 0.193 0.239 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.238 0.197 0.036 0.041 0.109 0.087 -0.011 -0.106 0.018 -0.017 PACF 0.238 0.148 -0.043 0.014 0.109 0.039 -0.079 -0.118 0.090 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.114 0.120 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.080 0.203 0.149 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES