RUN: cypr001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: CYPR013E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: CYPR013E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 636 1 Yialia (feucht) WIDTH_EARLY PIBR - 636 2 Cyprus Calabrian pine, brutia pine, see kiefer 500 3505-3235 1926 19 636 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 8 636042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 636011 1939 1981 43 2.206 0.885 0.193 2.725 0.312 0.598 2 636012 1934 1981 48 2.533 0.912 0.390 2.728 0.345 0.308 3 636021 1929 1981 53 0.869 0.598 2.183 6.560 0.245 0.803 4 636022 1940 1981 42 1.105 0.230 0.394 3.152 0.205 0.111 5 636031 1932 1981 50 0.899 0.371 0.575 2.885 0.289 0.622 6 636032 1928 1981 54 0.628 0.247 0.407 2.454 0.249 0.682 7 636041 1930 1981 52 1.095 0.700 1.477 4.219 0.349 0.533 8 636042 1933 1981 49 0.921 0.680 1.928 5.341 0.345 0.747 9 636051 1937 1981 45 1.412 0.313 -0.080 2.107 0.185 0.446 10 636052 1940 1981 42 1.977 0.553 0.835 4.885 0.252 0.417 11 636061 1943 1981 39 1.326 0.703 0.292 2.733 0.279 0.756 12 636062 1927 1981 55 1.892 1.027 0.424 2.857 0.226 0.851 13 636071 1934 1981 48 1.332 0.623 0.924 3.900 0.276 0.605 14 636072 1926 1981 56 1.437 0.584 0.934 5.497 0.254 0.607 15 636081 1939 1981 43 2.516 0.703 0.844 4.178 0.256 0.361 16 636082 1952 1981 30 1.495 0.527 0.053 2.911 0.152 0.800 17 636091 1937 1981 45 2.153 0.757 0.524 3.052 0.203 0.698 18 636092 1936 1981 46 1.404 0.796 2.100 8.232 0.296 0.660 19 636101 1938 1981 44 1.092 0.528 0.308 2.670 0.292 0.705 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 636102 1938 1971 34 1.381 0.464 1.802 7.383 0.245 0.249 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1926 TO 1981 56 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 46 1.484 0.610 0.825 4.023 0.263 0.578 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.554 0.216 0.700 1.758 0.053 0.202 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 45 1.393 0.610 0.550 3.102 0.255 0.615 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.841 0.235 0.857 2.383 0.059 0.294 MINIMUM VALUE 30 0.628 0.230 -0.080 2.107 0.152 0.111 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 42 1.094 0.495 0.349 2.730 0.235 0.432 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 51 1.935 0.730 1.206 5.113 0.294 0.726 MAXIMUM VALUE 56 2.533 1.027 2.183 8.232 0.349 0.851 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 189 0.301 0.290 0.021 -0.547 3.056 -0.613 0.891 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.613 SERIES 636031 AND 636082 30 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.891 SERIES 636091 AND 636092 45 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.47 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.70 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1926 1981 56 1.517 0.449 0.475 2.712 0.111 0.857 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.543 0.356 0.233 16 40 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.35 1.00 1.08 1.43 1.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.84 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 46. 8. 30. 42. 51. 56. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.841 0.740 0.679 0.612 0.541 0.530 0.486 0.458 0.427 0.355 PACF 0.841 0.111 0.111 -0.008 -0.030 0.165 -0.056 0.056 -0.023 -0.150 95% C.L. 0.267 0.415 0.501 0.563 0.609 0.642 0.673 0.697 0.718 0.736 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.763 0.643 0.045 0.225 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 636011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05037149 3.31375408 2 636012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02094551 3.04566479 3 636021 1 2.49528122 0.12707092 0.00000000 0.52181792 4 636022 1 0.40169153 0.14838389 0.00000000 1.04556441 5 636031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00490660 0.77408165 6 636032 1 0.39586419 0.11096673 0.00000000 0.56546885 7 636041 1 2.20053101 0.09180195 0.00000000 0.65858907 8 636042 1 2.42962646 0.12878034 0.00000000 0.55320126 9 636051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01066271 1.65679801 10 636052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00614375 1.84505224 11 636061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03649393 2.05628872 12 636062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05278860 3.37008071 13 636071 1 2.18087435 0.03223390 0.00000000 0.24035412 14 636072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02671087 2.19840264 15 636081 1 2.17087865 0.27095202 0.00000000 2.35336113 16 636082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.05429143 2.33618379 17 636091 1 2.65069938 0.04248402 0.00000000 0.99669558 18 636092 1 3.13955498 0.14557561 0.00000000 0.96913272 19 636101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02849049 1.73330867 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 636102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03035447 1.91267383 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 636011 1939 1981 43 0.993 0.279 -0.014 2.830 0.306 0.261 2 636012 1934 1981 48 0.998 0.338 0.456 3.044 0.338 0.285 3 636021 1929 1981 53 1.001 0.284 0.252 2.881 0.243 0.419 4 636022 1940 1981 42 1.000 0.191 0.122 2.900 0.200 -0.002 5 636031 1932 1981 50 1.001 0.406 0.528 3.140 0.283 0.568 6 636032 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.373 0.409 2.640 0.245 0.732 7 636041 1930 1981 52 1.001 0.409 0.686 3.660 0.343 0.362 8 636042 1933 1981 49 1.002 0.398 0.099 2.151 0.325 0.533 9 636051 1937 1981 45 1.000 0.199 -0.020 2.083 0.181 0.349 10 636052 1940 1981 42 1.000 0.277 0.764 4.562 0.246 0.391 11 636061 1943 1981 39 0.979 0.461 0.866 3.236 0.271 0.768 12 636062 1927 1981 55 0.984 0.311 0.860 4.837 0.221 0.540 13 636071 1934 1981 48 0.999 0.267 -0.141 5.423 0.270 0.207 14 636072 1926 1981 56 1.003 0.259 -0.120 5.927 0.246 0.244 15 636081 1939 1981 43 1.000 0.242 0.378 3.469 0.249 0.297 16 636082 1952 1981 30 0.995 0.148 -0.201 2.446 0.140 0.290 17 636091 1937 1981 45 1.000 0.216 -0.180 4.843 0.199 0.205 18 636092 1936 1981 46 1.000 0.321 0.533 4.742 0.281 0.512 19 636101 1938 1981 44 1.003 0.372 -0.353 2.717 0.283 0.513 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 636102 1938 1971 34 0.999 0.220 0.751 5.119 0.236 -0.216 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 46 0.998 0.299 0.284 3.632 0.255 0.363 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.006 0.085 0.391 1.171 0.052 0.231 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 45 1.000 0.282 0.315 3.188 0.248 0.355 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.003 0.142 0.680 2.016 0.055 0.271 MINIMUM VALUE 30 0.979 0.148 -0.353 2.083 0.140 -0.216 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 42 0.999 0.231 -0.070 2.774 0.229 0.252 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 51 1.001 0.373 0.609 4.789 0.283 0.523 MAXIMUM VALUE 56 1.003 0.461 0.866 5.927 0.343 0.768 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 636011 -67 28 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 636012 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 636021 -67 35 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 636022 -67 28 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 636031 -67 33 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 636032 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 636041 -67 34 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 636042 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 636051 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 636052 -67 28 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 636061 -67 26 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 636062 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 636071 -67 32 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 636072 -67 37 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 636081 -67 28 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 636082 -67 20 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 636091 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 636092 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 636101 -67 29 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 636102 -67 22 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 636011 1939 1981 43 0.996 0.243 -0.313 2.303 0.306 -0.007 2 636012 1934 1981 48 0.997 0.285 0.039 3.323 0.340 0.030 3 636021 1929 1981 53 0.995 0.253 0.135 2.773 0.244 0.242 4 636022 1940 1981 42 0.999 0.183 0.166 3.154 0.200 -0.085 5 636031 1932 1981 50 0.987 0.292 0.211 2.693 0.276 0.390 6 636032 1928 1981 54 0.987 0.302 -0.090 2.734 0.244 0.593 7 636041 1930 1981 52 0.985 0.327 0.184 3.669 0.342 0.089 8 636042 1933 1981 49 0.987 0.347 0.243 2.437 0.320 0.382 9 636051 1937 1981 45 0.998 0.181 -0.076 2.455 0.184 0.204 10 636052 1940 1981 42 0.997 0.238 0.189 3.053 0.245 0.191 11 636061 1943 1981 39 0.987 0.312 0.968 4.749 0.273 0.156 12 636062 1927 1981 55 0.994 0.273 0.564 3.854 0.220 0.360 13 636071 1934 1981 48 0.998 0.255 -0.337 5.573 0.271 0.132 14 636072 1926 1981 56 0.999 0.251 -0.424 5.589 0.246 0.163 15 636081 1939 1981 43 0.999 0.232 0.220 3.369 0.248 0.241 16 636082 1952 1981 30 0.999 0.124 0.087 2.849 0.142 0.005 17 636091 1937 1981 45 0.998 0.206 -0.282 5.138 0.198 0.128 18 636092 1936 1981 46 0.995 0.284 -0.030 3.678 0.282 0.302 19 636101 1938 1981 44 0.992 0.350 -0.443 2.798 0.284 0.466 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 636102 1938 1971 34 0.999 0.216 0.823 5.550 0.236 -0.264 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 46 0.994 0.258 0.092 3.587 0.255 0.186 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.005 0.058 0.379 1.120 0.052 0.200 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 45 0.996 0.254 0.111 3.238 0.247 0.177 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.009 0.073 0.401 1.548 0.055 0.272 MINIMUM VALUE 30 0.985 0.124 -0.443 2.303 0.142 -0.264 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 42 0.990 0.224 -0.186 2.754 0.228 0.059 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 51 0.999 0.297 0.215 4.302 0.283 0.331 MAXIMUM VALUE 56 0.999 0.350 0.968 5.589 0.342 0.593 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 189 0.112 0.191 0.014 0.202 3.098 -0.346 0.713 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.346 SERIES 636022 AND 636062 42 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.713 SERIES 636091 AND 636092 45 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.47 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.70 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1926 1981 56 0.990 0.119 -0.154 3.182 0.116 0.314 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.294 0.166 0.081 10 46 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.32 1.04 1.05 1.37 2.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.308 -0.043 0.010 -0.101 -0.238 -0.288 -0.123 -0.010 -0.039 0.139 PACF 0.308 -0.152 0.081 -0.156 -0.167 -0.211 -0.006 -0.025 -0.073 0.126 95% C.L. 0.267 0.292 0.292 0.292 0.294 0.308 0.327 0.330 0.330 0.330 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.118 0.311 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.273 -0.129 -0.077 -0.079 -0.202 -0.249 -0.106 -0.043 0.071 0.221 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.273 2 0.333 -0.220 3 0.340 -0.230 0.029 4 0.343 -0.253 0.064 -0.103 5 0.324 -0.242 0.018 -0.041 -0.182 6 0.290 -0.249 0.022 -0.086 -0.121 -0.187 7 0.278 -0.257 0.016 -0.084 -0.138 -0.167 -0.066 8 0.270 -0.277 0.000 -0.094 -0.136 -0.198 -0.034 -0.118 9 0.275 -0.275 0.009 -0.088 -0.132 -0.198 -0.021 -0.130 0.045 10 0.270 -0.260 0.011 -0.064 -0.116 -0.187 -0.022 -0.097 0.012 0.120 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 298.11 295.77 294.99 296.94 298.35 298.46 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 298.48 300.23 301.45 303.34 304.53 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.333 -0.220 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 11.94 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 113.55 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.333 -0.109 -0.110 -0.013 0.020 0.009 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 636011 2 0.078 -0.009 -0.259 2 636012 2 0.096 0.039 -0.305 3 636021 2 0.064 0.246 0.005 4 636022 2 0.073 -0.073 0.153 5 636031 2 0.190 0.320 0.183 6 636032 2 0.366 0.619 -0.038 7 636041 2 0.075 0.070 0.213 8 636042 2 0.170 0.420 -0.089 9 636051 2 0.084 0.227 -0.107 10 636052 2 0.092 0.223 -0.086 11 636061 2 0.121 0.205 -0.110 12 636062 2 0.163 0.345 0.089 13 636071 2 0.029 0.143 -0.079 14 636072 2 0.073 0.193 -0.162 15 636081 2 0.123 0.305 -0.251 16 636082 2 0.080 0.006 -0.061 17 636091 2 0.026 0.139 -0.071 18 636092 2 0.165 0.385 -0.242 19 636101 2 0.263 0.561 -0.188 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 636102 2 0.171 -0.295 -0.096 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.125 0.203 -0.075 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.082 0.216 0.146 MEDIAN 2 0.094 0.214 -0.087 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.093 0.278 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.026 -0.295 -0.305 LOWER HINGE 2 0.074 0.055 -0.175 UPPER HINGE 2 0.167 0.332 -0.016 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.366 0.619 0.213 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 636011 1939 1981 43 1.000 0.235 -0.404 2.746 0.281 0.028 2 636012 1934 1981 48 1.000 0.271 -0.053 3.157 0.331 0.010 3 636021 1929 1981 53 1.000 0.245 0.120 3.210 0.267 0.000 4 636022 1940 1981 42 1.000 0.180 0.115 2.908 0.186 0.032 5 636031 1932 1981 50 1.000 0.264 0.176 3.012 0.302 0.015 6 636032 1928 1981 54 1.000 0.242 -0.205 2.685 0.290 -0.004 7 636041 1930 1981 52 1.000 0.318 0.152 4.260 0.340 0.032 8 636042 1933 1981 49 1.000 0.319 -0.104 2.668 0.391 -0.009 9 636051 1937 1981 45 1.000 0.176 -0.314 2.698 0.207 -0.019 10 636052 1940 1981 42 1.000 0.231 0.201 2.849 0.271 -0.027 11 636061 1943 1981 39 1.000 0.304 0.646 4.977 0.298 0.054 12 636062 1927 1981 55 1.000 0.251 1.022 5.086 0.249 -0.004 13 636071 1934 1981 48 1.000 0.252 -0.463 6.063 0.279 0.005 14 636072 1926 1981 56 1.000 0.245 -0.290 5.549 0.255 -0.025 15 636081 1939 1981 43 1.000 0.217 0.285 3.196 0.242 0.019 16 636082 1952 1981 30 1.000 0.124 0.173 2.715 0.141 -0.015 17 636091 1937 1981 45 1.000 0.203 -0.623 5.805 0.212 0.003 18 636092 1936 1981 46 1.000 0.262 -0.552 5.269 0.288 0.038 19 636101 1938 1981 44 1.000 0.303 -0.242 3.705 0.349 -0.011 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 636102 1938 1971 34 1.000 0.207 1.027 4.233 0.199 -0.022 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 46 1.000 0.242 0.033 3.840 0.269 0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 6 0.000 0.050 0.464 1.198 0.061 0.023 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 45 1.000 0.245 0.031 3.203 0.275 0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 8 0.000 0.055 0.490 2.234 0.073 0.037 MINIMUM VALUE 30 1.000 0.124 -0.623 2.668 0.141 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 42 1.000 0.212 -0.302 2.798 0.227 -0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 51 1.000 0.267 0.188 5.032 0.300 0.024 MAXIMUM VALUE 56 1.000 0.319 1.027 6.063 0.391 0.054 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 189 0.093 0.184 0.013 0.118 3.196 -0.331 0.666 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.331 SERIES 636091 AND 636102 34 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.666 SERIES 636091 AND 636092 45 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 99.47 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.70 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1926 1981 56 0.996 0.109 -0.159 3.179 0.121 0.084 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.213 0.154 0.070 13 43 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.47 1.00 1.02 1.49 3.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.083 -0.154 0.044 -0.086 -0.170 -0.215 -0.036 0.098 -0.122 0.153 PACF 0.083 -0.162 0.075 -0.128 -0.135 -0.239 -0.046 0.030 -0.177 0.150 95% C.L. 0.267 0.269 0.275 0.276 0.278 0.285 0.296 0.297 0.299 0.303 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.012 -0.026 0.052 -0.135 -0.145 -0.207 -0.071 0.114 -0.168 0.189 PACF 0.012 -0.027 0.053 -0.138 -0.141 -0.223 -0.077 0.099 -0.204 0.138 95% C.L. 0.267 0.267 0.267 0.268 0.273 0.279 0.289 0.290 0.294 0.300 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.004 0.013 -0.027 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1926 1981 56 0.995 0.114 -0.085 3.068 0.113 0.283 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.278 -0.096 -0.034 -0.134 -0.227 -0.246 -0.073 0.062 -0.051 0.135 PACF 0.278 -0.187 0.055 -0.177 -0.149 -0.203 -0.003 -0.001 -0.150 0.152 95% C.L. 0.267 0.287 0.289 0.290 0.294 0.306 0.320 0.321 0.322 0.323 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.113 0.281 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.20 MINUTES