RUN: fran FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN017P.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN017P.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 259 1 Nizza, Foret dAillon LATEWOOD_PERCENT ABAL - 259 2 France silver fir, European fir 1700 4353-720 1838 1975 - 259 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 259010 1935 1975 41 2.962 0.613 0.237 3.136 0.167 0.421 2 259020 1876 1975 100 1.903 0.404 0.224 2.595 0.183 0.454 3 259030 1895 1975 81 2.741 0.830 0.602 3.473 0.234 0.485 4 259040 1849 1975 127 3.471 0.683 0.254 4.857 0.141 0.549 5 259050 1848 1975 128 2.721 0.713 1.126 6.784 0.159 0.638 6 259060 1844 1975 132 3.551 0.672 -0.743 3.721 0.147 0.536 7 259070 1860 1975 116 3.246 0.612 0.315 3.104 0.160 0.469 8 259080 1861 1975 115 2.942 0.553 0.466 3.906 0.139 0.548 9 259090 1908 1975 68 3.007 0.595 0.651 3.510 0.165 0.475 10 259100 1838 1975 138 3.319 0.808 1.253 6.287 0.191 0.432 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 10 FROM 1838 TO 1975 138 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 105 2.986 0.648 0.439 4.137 0.169 0.501 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.476 0.124 0.552 1.401 0.028 0.067 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 2.985 0.642 0.390 3.615 0.162 0.480 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.577 0.118 0.414 1.722 0.036 0.094 MINIMUM VALUE 41 1.903 0.404 -0.743 2.595 0.139 0.421 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 81 2.741 0.595 0.237 3.136 0.147 0.454 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 128 3.319 0.713 0.651 4.857 0.183 0.548 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 3.551 0.830 1.253 6.784 0.234 0.638 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.179 0.211 0.031 -0.419 2.061 -0.236 0.494 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.236 SERIES 259010 AND 259070 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.494 SERIES 259050 AND 259100 128 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.61 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 6. 10. 15. 21. 21. 28. 36. 36. 36. 45. RBAR 0.270 0.309 0.182 0.238 0.269 0.133 0.117 0.164 0.174 0.182 SDEV 0.439 0.152 0.321 0.243 0.346 0.246 0.342 0.255 0.318 0.315 SERR 0.179 0.048 0.083 0.053 0.075 0.047 0.057 0.043 0.053 0.047 EPS 0.647 0.733 0.599 0.693 0.743 0.568 0.544 0.645 0.673 0.690 NSS 4.9 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.8 10.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 45. RBAR 0.146 SDEV 0.314 SERR 0.047 EPS 0.631 NSS 10.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 2.956 0.413 -0.625 3.700 0.108 0.510 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.494 0.342 -0.301 21 117 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.49 0.98 1.05 1.18 2.17 4.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.09 0.00 0.82 0.91 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 116. 47. 41. 81. 128. 138. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.506 0.436 0.443 0.420 0.381 0.311 0.338 0.352 0.251 0.251 PACF 0.506 0.242 0.219 0.141 0.075 -0.019 0.080 0.091 -0.068 0.009 95% C.L. 0.170 0.209 0.234 0.257 0.277 0.291 0.301 0.312 0.323 0.329 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.408 0.260 0.161 0.192 0.179 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 259010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00236237 2.91282916 2 259020 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00404296 1.69863033 3 259030 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00494354 2.94416666 4 259040 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00586104 3.09552312 5 259050 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01194536 1.95069635 6 259060 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00913325 2.94407821 7 259070 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00532718 2.93422198 8 259080 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00771854 2.49467278 9 259090 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00577757 3.20653200 10 259100 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00839859 2.73506618 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 259010 1935 1975 41 1.000 0.207 0.240 3.029 0.163 0.414 2 259020 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.202 0.214 2.756 0.181 0.408 3 259030 1895 1975 81 1.000 0.305 0.863 3.947 0.232 0.488 4 259040 1849 1975 127 1.000 0.195 1.107 7.910 0.140 0.497 5 259050 1848 1975 128 0.998 0.193 1.272 8.238 0.158 0.376 6 259060 1844 1975 132 0.999 0.170 -0.336 3.355 0.146 0.461 7 259070 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.180 0.227 2.902 0.159 0.401 8 259080 1861 1975 115 1.001 0.166 -0.125 2.936 0.138 0.467 9 259090 1908 1975 68 1.000 0.196 0.838 4.273 0.162 0.430 10 259100 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.214 0.921 5.389 0.189 0.332 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 105 1.000 0.203 0.522 4.473 0.167 0.428 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.001 0.039 0.547 2.062 0.028 0.052 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 1.000 0.195 0.539 3.651 0.161 0.422 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.000 0.027 0.707 2.453 0.035 0.066 MINIMUM VALUE 41 0.998 0.166 -0.336 2.756 0.138 0.332 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 81 1.000 0.180 0.214 2.936 0.146 0.401 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.207 0.921 5.389 0.181 0.467 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 1.001 0.305 1.272 8.238 0.232 0.497 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 259010 -67 27 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 259020 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 259030 -67 54 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 259040 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 259050 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 259060 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 259070 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 259080 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 259090 -67 45 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 259100 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 259010 1935 1975 41 0.998 0.177 0.238 3.078 0.160 0.243 2 259020 1876 1975 100 0.999 0.186 0.012 2.864 0.181 0.307 3 259030 1895 1975 81 0.997 0.239 0.827 5.009 0.232 0.229 4 259040 1849 1975 127 0.997 0.168 0.607 6.479 0.140 0.382 5 259050 1848 1975 128 0.998 0.163 1.198 8.064 0.158 0.140 6 259060 1844 1975 132 0.997 0.143 0.119 2.897 0.145 0.234 7 259070 1860 1975 116 0.999 0.169 0.072 2.822 0.159 0.333 8 259080 1861 1975 115 0.999 0.142 -0.289 2.644 0.137 0.285 9 259090 1908 1975 68 0.998 0.162 0.556 3.044 0.161 0.264 10 259100 1838 1975 138 0.999 0.202 0.822 5.094 0.189 0.266 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 105 0.998 0.175 0.416 4.200 0.166 0.268 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.001 0.029 0.459 1.885 0.028 0.066 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 0.998 0.169 0.397 3.061 0.160 0.265 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.001 0.024 0.750 2.229 0.036 0.073 MINIMUM VALUE 41 0.997 0.142 -0.289 2.644 0.137 0.140 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 81 0.997 0.162 0.072 2.864 0.145 0.234 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 128 0.999 0.186 0.822 5.094 0.181 0.307 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 0.999 0.239 1.198 8.064 0.232 0.382 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.163 0.184 0.027 -0.593 3.160 -0.264 0.490 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.264 SERIES 259010 AND 259060 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.490 SERIES 259010 AND 259030 41 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.61 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 6. 10. 15. 21. 21. 28. 36. 36. 36. 45. RBAR 0.331 0.343 0.218 0.232 0.242 0.181 0.079 0.177 0.209 0.187 SDEV 0.242 0.192 0.270 0.246 0.280 0.222 0.312 0.238 0.279 0.326 SERR 0.099 0.061 0.070 0.054 0.061 0.042 0.052 0.040 0.046 0.049 EPS 0.710 0.763 0.652 0.687 0.715 0.655 0.436 0.666 0.721 0.697 NSS 4.9 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.8 10.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 45. RBAR 0.175 SDEV 0.311 SERR 0.046 EPS 0.679 NSS 10.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 0.988 0.100 0.217 3.185 0.103 0.174 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.063 0.040 0.098 30 108 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.33 1.00 1.06 2.39 23.62 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.09 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.173 0.033 0.073 0.024 0.062 -0.096 -0.103 0.006 -0.194 -0.176 PACF 0.173 0.003 0.069 0.000 0.058 -0.126 -0.071 0.030 -0.196 -0.110 95% C.L. 0.170 0.175 0.175 0.176 0.176 0.177 0.179 0.180 0.180 0.186 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 0.176 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.098 -0.004 0.048 0.075 0.142 -0.135 -0.123 0.047 -0.133 -0.142 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.098 2 0.100 -0.013 3 0.100 -0.018 0.050 4 0.097 -0.017 0.043 0.066 5 0.088 -0.023 0.045 0.053 0.132 6 0.110 -0.014 0.053 0.049 0.147 -0.167 7 0.093 0.001 0.058 0.055 0.145 -0.155 -0.101 8 0.099 0.009 0.050 0.052 0.142 -0.155 -0.106 0.052 9 0.107 -0.008 0.026 0.074 0.150 -0.147 -0.105 0.068 -0.157 10 0.089 0.000 0.014 0.057 0.168 -0.139 -0.102 0.067 -0.145 -0.115 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 591.91 592.57 594.54 596.20 597.60 597.18 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 595.30 595.87 597.49 596.05 596.21 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 259010 0 0.060 2 259020 0 0.095 3 259030 0 0.054 4 259040 0 0.177 5 259050 0 0.020 6 259060 0 0.056 7 259070 0 0.111 8 259080 0 0.084 9 259090 0 0.077 10 259100 0 0.072 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.081 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.042 MEDIAN 0 0.074 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.039 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.020 LOWER HINGE 0 0.056 UPPER HINGE 0 0.095 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.177 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 259010 1935 1975 41 1.000 0.177 0.238 3.078 0.160 0.243 2 259020 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.186 0.012 2.864 0.180 0.307 3 259030 1895 1975 81 1.000 0.239 0.826 5.009 0.231 0.229 4 259040 1849 1975 127 1.000 0.168 0.607 6.479 0.139 0.382 5 259050 1848 1975 128 1.000 0.163 1.198 8.064 0.158 0.140 6 259060 1844 1975 132 1.000 0.143 0.119 2.897 0.144 0.234 7 259070 1860 1975 116 1.000 0.169 0.072 2.822 0.159 0.333 8 259080 1861 1975 115 1.000 0.142 -0.289 2.644 0.137 0.285 9 259090 1908 1975 68 1.000 0.162 0.556 3.044 0.161 0.264 10 259100 1838 1975 138 1.000 0.202 0.822 5.094 0.189 0.266 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 105 1.000 0.175 0.416 4.200 0.166 0.268 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.029 0.459 1.885 0.028 0.066 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 115 1.000 0.169 0.397 3.061 0.159 0.265 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 47 0.000 0.024 0.750 2.229 0.036 0.073 MINIMUM VALUE 41 1.000 0.142 -0.289 2.644 0.137 0.140 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 81 1.000 0.162 0.072 2.864 0.144 0.234 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.186 0.822 5.094 0.180 0.307 MAXIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.239 1.198 8.064 0.231 0.382 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 45 0.163 0.184 0.027 -0.593 3.160 -0.264 0.490 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.264 SERIES 259010 AND 259060 41 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.490 SERIES 259010 AND 259030 41 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 62.61 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1860. 1870. 1880. 1890. 1900. 1910. 1920. 1930. 1940. 1950. CORR 6. 10. 15. 21. 21. 28. 36. 36. 36. 45. RBAR 0.331 0.343 0.218 0.232 0.242 0.181 0.079 0.177 0.209 0.187 SDEV 0.242 0.192 0.270 0.246 0.280 0.222 0.312 0.238 0.279 0.326 SERR 0.099 0.061 0.070 0.054 0.061 0.042 0.052 0.040 0.046 0.049 EPS 0.710 0.763 0.652 0.687 0.715 0.655 0.436 0.666 0.721 0.697 NSS 4.9 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.8 8.6 9.0 9.2 9.8 10.0 YEAR 1960. CORR 45. RBAR 0.175 SDEV 0.311 SERR 0.046 EPS 0.679 NSS 10.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 0.990 0.100 0.217 3.183 0.103 0.173 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.063 0.040 0.098 30 108 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 1.42 1.00 1.05 2.47 22.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.10 0.00 0.84 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.172 0.034 0.074 0.024 0.062 -0.096 -0.103 0.005 -0.194 -0.176 PACF 0.172 0.004 0.069 -0.001 0.058 -0.126 -0.070 0.029 -0.195 -0.110 95% C.L. 0.170 0.175 0.175 0.176 0.176 0.177 0.179 0.180 0.180 0.186 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 0.176 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1838 1975 138 0.990 0.100 0.217 3.183 0.103 0.173 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.172 0.034 0.074 0.024 0.062 -0.096 -0.103 0.005 -0.194 -0.176 PACF 0.172 0.004 0.069 -0.001 0.058 -0.126 -0.070 0.029 -0.195 -0.110 95% C.L. 0.170 0.175 0.175 0.176 0.176 0.177 0.179 0.180 0.180 0.186 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 0.176 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.08 MINUTES