RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: fran019p.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: fran019p.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 264 1 Mt.Cenis LATEWOOD_PERCENT PCAB - 264 2 France Norway spruce 1950 4516-655 1834 1975 - 264 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 264090 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 9 IN 1 GAPS / 1905 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 264010 1876 1975 100 2.053 0.562 1.032 5.075 0.262 0.240 2 264020 1839 1975 137 1.745 0.544 1.419 6.148 0.259 0.433 3 264030 1859 1975 117 1.450 0.427 0.431 3.183 0.300 0.224 4 264040 1864 1975 112 1.803 0.658 0.394 3.303 0.282 0.473 5 264070 1834 1975 142 1.756 0.418 -0.244 4.235 0.266 0.167 6 264080 1884 1975 92 2.499 0.868 1.002 3.898 0.305 0.364 7 264090 1866 1975 110 3.394 1.133 0.825 4.087 0.234 0.533 8 264110 1853 1975 123 1.512 0.545 1.916 10.385 0.316 0.291 9 264160 1869 1975 107 1.868 0.702 0.552 3.130 0.331 0.432 10 264190 1853 1975 123 2.259 0.993 0.949 4.182 0.283 0.651 11 264200 1869 1975 107 2.324 0.645 0.430 3.665 0.273 0.249 12 264220 1864 1975 112 1.543 0.475 1.687 8.725 0.284 0.157 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 12 FROM 1834 TO 1975 142 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 114 2.017 0.664 0.866 5.001 0.283 0.351 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.547 0.226 0.608 2.315 0.027 0.155 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 112 1.835 0.603 0.887 4.134 0.282 0.328 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 19 0.648 0.276 0.795 2.127 0.039 0.221 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.450 0.418 -0.244 3.130 0.234 0.157 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 104 1.644 0.509 0.430 3.484 0.264 0.232 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 2.291 0.785 1.226 5.611 0.302 0.453 MAXIMUM VALUE 142 3.394 1.133 1.916 10.385 0.331 0.651 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.421 0.138 0.017 -0.267 3.281 0.014 0.696 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.014 SERIES 264070 AND 264190 123 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.696 SERIES 264040 AND 264160 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 21. 66. 66. RBAR 0.439 0.483 0.349 SDEV 0.140 0.123 0.171 SERR 0.030 0.015 0.021 EPS 0.898 0.918 0.866 NSS 11.2 12.0 12.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1834 1975 142 1.886 0.442 0.342 3.339 0.223 0.335 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.516 0.346 -0.099 60 82 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.54 1.48 1.00 1.13 2.60 32.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 112. 16. 92. 107. 123. 142. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.332 0.274 0.187 0.250 0.242 0.195 0.271 0.147 0.188 0.154 PACF 0.332 0.184 0.060 0.158 0.115 0.036 0.157 -0.038 0.049 0.026 95% C.L. 0.168 0.185 0.196 0.201 0.210 0.218 0.223 0.232 0.234 0.239 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.156 0.271 0.205 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 264010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052715 2.02607870 2 264020 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053606 1.70782959 3 264030 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00296123 1.27571476 4 264040 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01207559 1.12067568 5 264070 1 0.83070737 0.00618452 0.00000000 1.20461631 6 264080 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01076014 1.99878407 7 264090 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02347051 2.08489537 8 264110 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00100927 1.44929492 9 264160 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01390505 1.11707103 10 264190 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01996156 1.02148879 11 264200 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00321822 2.15004754 12 264220 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00221581 1.41784263 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 264010 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.273 1.017 5.030 0.259 0.236 2 264020 1839 1975 137 1.000 0.312 1.432 6.271 0.257 0.433 3 264030 1859 1975 117 1.000 0.283 0.362 3.523 0.297 0.191 4 264040 1864 1975 112 0.999 0.298 0.609 5.083 0.279 0.218 5 264070 1834 1975 142 1.000 0.227 -0.418 4.330 0.263 0.049 6 264080 1884 1975 92 0.999 0.323 0.939 3.861 0.301 0.223 7 264090 1866 1975 110 1.000 0.250 0.738 3.994 0.249 0.149 8 264110 1853 1975 123 1.000 0.361 1.955 10.544 0.314 0.287 9 264160 1869 1975 107 0.999 0.301 0.776 4.338 0.328 0.141 10 264190 1853 1975 123 1.003 0.299 0.316 3.100 0.280 0.312 11 264200 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.272 0.351 3.601 0.270 0.219 12 264220 1864 1975 112 1.000 0.307 1.923 10.199 0.281 0.149 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.292 0.833 5.323 0.282 0.217 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.001 0.035 0.687 2.506 0.024 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 112 1.000 0.299 0.757 4.334 0.279 0.218 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.036 0.868 1.946 0.038 0.113 MINIMUM VALUE 92 0.999 0.227 -0.418 3.100 0.249 0.049 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.273 0.357 3.731 0.261 0.149 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.309 1.224 5.677 0.299 0.261 MAXIMUM VALUE 142 1.003 0.361 1.955 10.544 0.328 0.433 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 264010 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 264020 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 264030 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 264040 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 264070 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 264080 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 264090 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 264110 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 264160 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 264190 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 264200 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 264220 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 264010 1876 1975 100 0.998 0.248 0.616 4.427 0.259 0.129 2 264020 1839 1975 137 0.998 0.244 0.517 3.897 0.256 0.132 3 264030 1859 1975 117 0.998 0.269 0.153 3.311 0.297 0.109 4 264040 1864 1975 112 0.997 0.275 0.366 5.094 0.278 0.141 5 264070 1834 1975 142 1.000 0.226 -0.329 4.585 0.263 0.022 6 264080 1884 1975 92 0.998 0.307 0.823 3.267 0.301 0.137 7 264090 1866 1975 110 0.999 0.245 0.655 3.924 0.249 0.125 8 264110 1853 1975 123 0.997 0.328 1.300 6.941 0.313 0.206 9 264160 1869 1975 107 0.998 0.284 0.446 3.586 0.328 0.062 10 264190 1853 1975 123 0.994 0.246 -0.168 3.428 0.279 0.043 11 264200 1869 1975 107 0.999 0.236 0.185 4.680 0.271 -0.006 12 264220 1864 1975 112 0.999 0.293 1.679 9.190 0.281 0.110 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.998 0.267 0.520 4.694 0.281 0.101 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.001 0.031 0.567 1.746 0.024 0.060 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 112 0.998 0.258 0.481 4.176 0.279 0.118 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.001 0.044 0.570 1.380 0.038 0.082 MINIMUM VALUE 92 0.994 0.226 -0.329 3.267 0.249 -0.006 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 0.997 0.244 0.169 3.507 0.261 0.052 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.999 0.288 0.739 4.887 0.299 0.134 MAXIMUM VALUE 142 1.000 0.328 1.679 9.190 0.328 0.206 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.459 0.084 0.010 0.029 2.501 0.272 0.635 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.272 SERIES 264020 AND 264090 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.635 SERIES 264030 AND 264110 117 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 21. 66. 66. RBAR 0.481 0.516 0.410 SDEV 0.087 0.107 0.145 SERR 0.019 0.013 0.018 EPS 0.912 0.928 0.893 NSS 11.2 12.0 12.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1834 1975 142 0.992 0.189 -0.060 3.818 0.216 0.006 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.290 0.126 0.040 36 106 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.70 1.51 1.00 1.17 2.68 7.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.006 -0.018 -0.070 -0.032 -0.014 -0.076 0.031 -0.125 -0.051 -0.092 PACF 0.006 -0.018 -0.070 -0.032 -0.017 -0.083 0.026 -0.134 -0.063 -0.104 95% C.L. 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.170 0.170 0.173 0.173 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.028 -0.012 -0.121 -0.052 0.028 -0.103 0.025 -0.174 -0.005 -0.065 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.028 2 -0.028 -0.013 3 -0.030 -0.016 -0.122 4 -0.037 -0.017 -0.123 -0.060 5 -0.036 -0.015 -0.123 -0.060 0.021 6 -0.033 -0.022 -0.138 -0.062 0.017 -0.120 7 -0.033 -0.022 -0.138 -0.061 0.017 -0.120 0.004 8 -0.032 -0.044 -0.135 -0.072 -0.008 -0.124 -0.002 -0.180 9 -0.040 -0.044 -0.140 -0.072 -0.011 -0.130 -0.004 -0.182 -0.044 10 -0.044 -0.061 -0.140 -0.084 -0.012 -0.137 -0.017 -0.186 -0.048 -0.093 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 898.71 900.60 902.57 902.46 903.94 905.88 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 905.80 907.80 905.10 906.82 907.59 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 264010 0 0.017 2 264020 0 0.018 3 264030 0 0.012 4 264040 0 0.020 5 264070 0 0.001 6 264080 0 0.021 7 264090 0 0.016 8 264110 0 0.044 9 264160 0 0.004 10 264190 0 0.002 11 264200 0 0.000 12 264220 0 0.013 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.014 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.012 MEDIAN 0 0.015 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.003 UPPER HINGE 0 0.019 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.044 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 264010 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.248 0.616 4.427 0.259 0.129 2 264020 1839 1975 137 1.000 0.244 0.517 3.897 0.255 0.132 3 264030 1859 1975 117 1.000 0.269 0.153 3.311 0.297 0.109 4 264040 1864 1975 112 1.000 0.275 0.366 5.094 0.278 0.141 5 264070 1834 1975 142 1.000 0.226 -0.329 4.585 0.263 0.022 6 264080 1884 1975 92 1.000 0.307 0.823 3.267 0.301 0.137 7 264090 1866 1975 110 1.000 0.245 0.655 3.924 0.248 0.125 8 264110 1853 1975 123 1.000 0.328 1.300 6.941 0.313 0.206 9 264160 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.284 0.446 3.586 0.327 0.062 10 264190 1853 1975 123 1.000 0.246 -0.168 3.428 0.278 0.043 11 264200 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.236 0.185 4.680 0.270 -0.006 12 264220 1864 1975 112 1.000 0.293 1.679 9.190 0.280 0.110 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.267 0.520 4.694 0.281 0.101 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.031 0.567 1.746 0.024 0.060 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 112 1.000 0.258 0.481 4.176 0.278 0.118 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.044 0.570 1.380 0.038 0.082 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.226 -0.329 3.267 0.248 -0.006 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.244 0.169 3.507 0.261 0.052 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.288 0.739 4.887 0.299 0.134 MAXIMUM VALUE 142 1.000 0.328 1.679 9.190 0.327 0.206 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.459 0.084 0.010 0.029 2.501 0.272 0.635 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.272 SERIES 264020 AND 264090 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.635 SERIES 264030 AND 264110 117 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 21. 66. 66. RBAR 0.481 0.516 0.410 SDEV 0.087 0.107 0.145 SERR 0.019 0.013 0.018 EPS 0.912 0.928 0.893 NSS 11.2 12.0 12.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1834 1975 142 0.994 0.189 -0.060 3.819 0.216 0.005 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.292 0.127 0.038 36 106 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.72 1.54 1.02 1.16 2.70 7.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 -0.018 -0.070 -0.033 -0.015 -0.076 0.030 -0.125 -0.051 -0.092 PACF 0.005 -0.018 -0.070 -0.033 -0.017 -0.083 0.026 -0.133 -0.064 -0.104 95% C.L. 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.170 0.170 0.173 0.173 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1834 1975 142 0.994 0.189 -0.060 3.819 0.216 0.005 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.005 -0.018 -0.070 -0.033 -0.015 -0.076 0.030 -0.125 -0.051 -0.092 PACF 0.005 -0.018 -0.070 -0.033 -0.017 -0.083 0.026 -0.133 -0.064 -0.104 95% C.L. 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.170 0.170 0.173 0.173 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.14 MINUTES