RUN: FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: fran019w.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: fran019w.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 264 1 Mt.Cenis WIDTH_RING PCAB - 264 2 France Norway spruce 1950 4516-655 1834 1975 - 264 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 264010 1876 1975 100 1.444 0.366 -0.105 3.727 0.160 0.689 2 264020 1839 1975 137 1.331 0.544 1.191 4.505 0.141 0.866 3 264030 1859 1975 117 1.854 0.722 0.294 2.617 0.134 0.898 4 264040 1864 1975 112 1.029 0.457 0.900 3.759 0.161 0.850 5 264070 1834 1975 142 1.476 0.347 0.176 2.839 0.140 0.697 6 264080 1884 1975 92 1.106 0.370 -0.085 2.183 0.182 0.728 7 264090 1866 1975 110 1.203 0.519 0.006 2.260 0.175 0.852 8 264110 1853 1975 123 1.382 0.673 1.687 6.941 0.182 0.830 9 264160 1869 1975 107 1.659 0.621 0.966 3.354 0.186 0.771 10 264190 1853 1975 123 1.271 0.307 0.750 3.802 0.166 0.576 11 264200 1869 1975 107 1.603 0.500 0.374 2.904 0.150 0.773 12 264220 1864 1975 112 1.805 0.708 0.849 2.749 0.152 0.889 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 12 FROM 1834 TO 1975 142 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.430 0.511 0.584 3.470 0.161 0.785 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.263 0.146 0.562 1.296 0.018 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 112 1.413 0.509 0.562 3.129 0.161 0.801 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.394 0.279 0.842 1.097 0.033 0.147 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.029 0.307 -0.105 2.183 0.134 0.576 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 1.237 0.368 0.091 2.683 0.145 0.712 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.631 0.647 0.933 3.780 0.178 0.859 MAXIMUM VALUE 142 1.854 0.722 1.687 6.941 0.186 0.898 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.512 0.226 0.028 -0.666 3.344 -0.175 0.892 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.175 SERIES 264010 AND 264160 100 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.892 SERIES 264030 AND 264040 112 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 21. 66. 66. RBAR 0.464 0.315 0.403 SDEV 0.207 0.254 0.287 SERR 0.045 0.031 0.035 EPS 0.907 0.846 0.890 NSS 11.2 12.0 12.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1834 1975 142 1.498 0.413 0.088 2.644 0.132 0.813 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.608 0.312 -0.025 25 117 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.63 1.42 1.00 1.15 2.57 9.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.87 0.13 0.00 0.81 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 112. 16. 92. 107. 123. 142. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.807 0.750 0.717 0.703 0.704 0.717 0.717 0.658 0.646 0.632 PACF 0.807 0.284 0.170 0.150 0.155 0.172 0.115 -0.102 0.030 0.016 95% C.L. 0.168 0.255 0.311 0.354 0.392 0.426 0.459 0.489 0.513 0.536 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.769 0.337 0.129 0.027 0.062 0.070 0.167 0.168 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 264010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00223750 1.55719388 2 264020 1 1.91132808 0.01906860 0.00000000 0.65930843 3 264030 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01943038 3.00032425 4 264040 1 1.67110741 0.02191543 0.00000000 0.41367149 5 264070 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00510045 1.84109080 6 264080 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00637840 1.40246534 7 264090 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01145288 1.83890748 8 264110 1 2.53828335 0.05344182 0.00000000 1.00664306 9 264160 1 1.63918555 0.05277348 0.00000000 1.37718081 10 264190 1 1.08750868 0.00757086 0.00000000 0.56606448 11 264200 1 2.24434543 0.00958257 0.00000000 0.20560628 12 264220 1 2.77688289 0.01334351 0.00000000 0.37380627 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 264010 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.252 -0.034 3.663 0.158 0.679 2 264020 1839 1975 137 1.000 0.181 0.185 3.231 0.139 0.544 3 264030 1859 1975 117 0.999 0.167 0.139 2.518 0.133 0.516 4 264040 1864 1975 112 0.999 0.207 0.158 3.920 0.160 0.508 5 264070 1834 1975 142 0.999 0.184 0.175 2.979 0.139 0.520 6 264080 1884 1975 92 0.999 0.307 0.121 2.717 0.180 0.665 7 264090 1866 1975 110 0.981 0.322 1.016 4.222 0.172 0.766 8 264110 1853 1975 123 1.000 0.278 -0.047 2.641 0.179 0.689 9 264160 1869 1975 107 0.999 0.293 0.772 3.698 0.184 0.628 10 264190 1853 1975 123 1.000 0.184 0.112 2.421 0.165 0.368 11 264200 1869 1975 107 0.999 0.187 0.132 3.445 0.149 0.489 12 264220 1864 1975 112 1.001 0.180 -0.104 3.083 0.151 0.467 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.998 0.229 0.219 3.212 0.159 0.570 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.005 0.058 0.333 0.585 0.018 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 112 0.999 0.197 0.135 3.157 0.159 0.532 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.001 0.103 0.141 1.002 0.032 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 92 0.981 0.167 -0.104 2.421 0.133 0.368 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 0.999 0.182 0.039 2.679 0.144 0.499 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.286 0.180 3.681 0.176 0.672 MAXIMUM VALUE 142 1.001 0.322 1.016 4.222 0.184 0.766 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 264010 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 264020 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 264030 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 264040 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 264070 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 264080 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 264090 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 264110 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 264160 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 264190 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 264200 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 264220 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 264010 1876 1975 100 0.997 0.187 -0.650 4.277 0.159 0.436 2 264020 1839 1975 137 0.999 0.174 0.001 3.034 0.139 0.505 3 264030 1859 1975 117 0.998 0.139 0.111 2.449 0.133 0.302 4 264040 1864 1975 112 0.999 0.198 0.644 5.133 0.159 0.466 5 264070 1834 1975 142 0.999 0.163 -0.042 2.848 0.139 0.413 6 264080 1884 1975 92 0.987 0.251 0.044 2.995 0.180 0.555 7 264090 1866 1975 110 0.996 0.207 0.252 2.955 0.171 0.447 8 264110 1853 1975 123 0.998 0.269 0.130 3.072 0.179 0.658 9 264160 1869 1975 107 0.997 0.246 0.298 3.267 0.184 0.495 10 264190 1853 1975 123 0.999 0.180 0.104 2.364 0.165 0.346 11 264200 1869 1975 107 0.998 0.168 0.004 2.944 0.148 0.365 12 264220 1864 1975 112 0.999 0.171 -0.165 3.074 0.151 0.415 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 0.997 0.196 0.061 3.201 0.159 0.450 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.003 0.040 0.304 0.770 0.018 0.097 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 112 0.998 0.184 0.074 3.014 0.159 0.442 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.002 0.057 0.212 0.274 0.032 0.111 MINIMUM VALUE 92 0.987 0.139 -0.650 2.364 0.133 0.302 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 0.997 0.169 -0.020 2.896 0.143 0.389 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 0.999 0.226 0.191 3.171 0.175 0.500 MAXIMUM VALUE 142 0.999 0.269 0.644 5.133 0.184 0.658 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.315 0.153 0.019 -0.924 4.508 -0.216 0.583 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.216 SERIES 264020 AND 264080 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.583 SERIES 264110 AND 264190 123 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 21. 66. 66. RBAR 0.309 0.234 0.299 SDEV 0.193 0.214 0.214 SERR 0.042 0.026 0.026 EPS 0.834 0.786 0.836 NSS 11.2 12.0 12.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1834 1975 142 0.999 0.119 -0.414 3.520 0.122 0.143 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.154 0.086 0.059 34 108 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 1.31 1.03 1.15 2.46 20.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.85 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.142 -0.011 0.058 -0.038 -0.082 -0.009 0.009 -0.080 -0.125 -0.052 PACF 0.142 -0.032 0.065 -0.057 -0.067 0.007 0.011 -0.078 -0.112 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.168 0.171 0.171 0.172 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.173 0.174 0.177 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.023 0.148 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.153 0.003 0.170 -0.011 -0.086 -0.012 -0.018 -0.121 -0.154 -0.099 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.153 2 0.156 -0.020 3 0.160 -0.048 0.176 4 0.172 -0.051 0.187 -0.069 5 0.167 -0.038 0.184 -0.057 -0.069 6 0.166 -0.039 0.187 -0.057 -0.066 -0.020 7 0.165 -0.040 0.187 -0.056 -0.066 -0.019 -0.005 8 0.165 -0.041 0.181 -0.062 -0.048 -0.023 0.011 -0.097 9 0.152 -0.040 0.178 -0.068 -0.056 0.001 0.006 -0.076 -0.129 10 0.143 -0.045 0.178 -0.068 -0.060 -0.004 0.018 -0.078 -0.118 -0.070 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 769.07 767.71 769.65 767.17 768.50 769.81 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 771.75 773.75 774.41 774.04 775.34 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.153 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.34 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.39 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.153 0.023 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 264010 1 0.221 0.469 2 264020 1 0.264 0.513 3 264030 1 0.110 0.309 4 264040 1 0.239 0.485 5 264070 1 0.177 0.419 6 264080 1 0.355 0.562 7 264090 1 0.243 0.461 8 264110 1 0.462 0.675 9 264160 1 0.249 0.497 10 264190 1 0.128 0.358 11 264200 1 0.168 0.379 12 264220 1 0.182 0.427 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.233 0.463 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.098 0.097 MEDIAN 1 0.230 0.465 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.084 0.106 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.110 0.309 LOWER HINGE 1 0.173 0.399 UPPER HINGE 1 0.256 0.505 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.462 0.675 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 264010 1876 1975 100 1.000 0.165 -0.383 3.434 0.180 0.011 2 264020 1839 1975 137 1.000 0.149 -0.220 3.217 0.166 -0.002 3 264030 1859 1975 117 1.000 0.132 0.064 2.458 0.146 0.042 4 264040 1864 1975 112 1.000 0.173 0.384 4.244 0.196 -0.018 5 264070 1834 1975 142 1.000 0.148 -0.024 2.698 0.168 -0.014 6 264080 1884 1975 92 1.000 0.208 0.741 3.837 0.226 -0.125 7 264090 1866 1975 110 1.000 0.183 0.021 3.085 0.207 -0.079 8 264110 1853 1975 123 1.000 0.198 -0.082 3.249 0.234 -0.064 9 264160 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.213 0.192 3.760 0.232 -0.027 10 264190 1853 1975 123 1.000 0.167 0.079 2.395 0.194 -0.002 11 264200 1869 1975 107 1.000 0.155 -0.110 2.971 0.171 -0.050 12 264220 1864 1975 112 1.000 0.154 -0.129 2.838 0.180 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 115 1.000 0.170 0.044 3.182 0.192 -0.027 STANDARD DEVIATION 14 0.000 0.025 0.294 0.565 0.028 0.045 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 112 1.000 0.166 -0.002 3.151 0.187 -0.016 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.039 0.255 0.829 0.047 0.056 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.132 -0.383 2.395 0.146 -0.125 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.152 -0.119 2.768 0.169 -0.057 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.190 0.136 3.597 0.216 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 142 1.000 0.213 0.741 4.244 0.234 0.042 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 66 0.469 0.097 0.012 -0.432 2.657 0.228 0.666 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.228 SERIES 264020 AND 264080 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.666 SERIES 264080 AND 264090 92 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 75.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 21. 66. 66. RBAR 0.480 0.428 0.458 SDEV 0.142 0.132 0.141 SERR 0.031 0.016 0.017 EPS 0.912 0.900 0.910 NSS 11.2 12.0 12.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1834 1975 142 1.000 0.120 -0.301 3.175 0.150 -0.216 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.136 0.057 0.054 32 110 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 1.14 1.02 1.09 2.22 8.78 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.86 0.99 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.214 -0.092 0.077 -0.034 -0.096 0.042 0.035 -0.062 -0.098 -0.026 PACF -0.214 -0.144 0.025 -0.024 -0.104 -0.014 0.025 -0.039 -0.133 -0.112 95% C.L. 0.168 0.175 0.177 0.178 0.178 0.179 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.182 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.072 -0.253 -0.161 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.037 -0.139 0.056 -0.044 -0.105 0.035 0.037 -0.087 -0.124 -0.041 PACF -0.037 -0.141 0.046 -0.061 -0.097 0.011 0.016 -0.075 -0.141 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.168 0.168 0.171 0.172 0.172 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.176 0.178 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.024 -0.038 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1834 1975 142 1.001 0.118 -0.285 3.359 0.127 0.087 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.086 -0.126 0.028 -0.056 -0.107 0.025 0.026 -0.106 -0.141 -0.054 PACF 0.086 -0.134 0.053 -0.083 -0.084 0.026 0.000 -0.103 -0.138 -0.068 95% C.L. 0.168 0.169 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.174 0.174 0.174 0.176 0.179 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.13 MINUTES