RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN020P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN020P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 486 1 Pic Aubas LATEWOOD_PERCENT ABAL - 486 2 France silver fir, European fir 1800 4246-37 1784 1977 - 486 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 486081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1841 1847 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 486011 1843 1977 135 1.923 0.989 1.776 6.399 0.244 0.822 2 486012 1831 1977 147 1.613 0.499 0.453 3.598 0.279 0.326 3 486021 1871 1977 107 2.026 0.910 1.205 4.803 0.339 0.492 4 486022 1806 1977 172 1.902 0.613 1.260 4.848 0.273 0.342 5 486031 1795 1977 183 2.018 0.711 0.965 4.360 0.242 0.650 6 486032 1814 1977 164 2.246 1.249 1.039 4.597 0.331 0.748 7 486041 1822 1977 156 1.739 0.535 0.760 3.349 0.259 0.396 8 486042 1806 1977 172 2.115 0.937 1.364 5.747 0.307 0.564 9 486051 1807 1977 171 1.800 0.609 1.785 8.794 0.276 0.339 10 486052 1792 1977 186 1.542 0.524 0.833 3.991 0.274 0.418 11 486071 1884 1977 94 1.887 0.559 2.683 13.978 0.262 0.285 12 486072 1883 1977 95 2.026 0.773 0.590 3.042 0.287 0.616 13 486081 1796 1977 182 1.771 0.713 1.380 5.446 0.309 0.442 14 486082 1801 1968 168 1.639 0.648 0.651 3.948 0.274 0.524 15 486091 1803 1977 175 1.821 0.609 1.750 8.255 0.275 0.490 16 486092 1797 1977 181 1.878 0.630 0.839 4.205 0.251 0.533 17 486101 1847 1977 131 1.928 0.611 0.216 3.390 0.298 0.359 18 486102 1836 1977 142 1.707 0.675 0.444 2.714 0.345 0.388 19 486111 1804 1977 174 2.817 0.892 0.686 3.098 0.261 0.377 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 486112 1805 1977 173 2.655 0.690 0.808 3.948 0.280 0.067 21 486121 1796 1977 182 1.559 0.612 0.336 3.961 0.370 0.402 22 486122 1811 1977 167 1.654 0.676 0.482 3.319 0.328 0.569 23 486131 1795 1977 183 1.923 0.533 0.235 3.697 0.239 0.416 24 486132 1837 1977 141 1.754 0.609 0.550 3.480 0.237 0.702 25 486141 1784 1969 186 1.259 0.474 0.619 4.170 0.298 0.395 26 486142 1796 1973 178 1.441 0.738 0.891 3.785 0.347 0.641 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1784 TO 1977 194 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 1.871 0.693 0.946 4.805 0.288 0.473 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.334 0.177 0.578 2.382 0.037 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 1.850 0.639 0.821 3.976 0.277 0.430 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.364 0.129 0.711 1.368 0.048 0.192 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.259 0.474 0.216 2.714 0.237 0.067 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 1.654 0.609 0.550 3.480 0.261 0.377 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 2.018 0.738 1.260 4.848 0.309 0.569 MAXIMUM VALUE 186 2.817 1.249 2.683 13.978 0.370 0.822 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.436 0.133 0.007 -0.219 3.100 -0.083 0.758 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.083 SERIES 486072 AND 486081 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.758 SERIES 486031 AND 486032 164 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 136. 210. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.312 0.330 0.463 0.419 0.406 SDEV 0.193 0.174 0.159 0.174 0.141 SERR 0.017 0.012 0.010 0.010 0.008 EPS 0.903 0.920 0.956 0.949 0.947 NSS 20.5 23.4 25.1 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 1977 194 1.829 0.449 0.269 3.124 0.199 0.502 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.606 0.277 0.041 107 87 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 0.68 1.01 1.20 1.88 5.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 172. 39. 94. 142. 181. 186. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.500 0.442 0.456 0.459 0.451 0.387 0.376 0.405 0.453 0.363 PACF 0.500 0.256 0.234 0.189 0.147 0.028 0.039 0.093 0.160 -0.019 95% C.L. 0.144 0.176 0.197 0.218 0.237 0.254 0.266 0.277 0.289 0.303 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.406 0.212 0.112 0.167 0.172 0.163 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 486011 1 3.79685903 0.04693516 0.00000000 1.33925426 2 486012 1 0.89962786 0.02497396 0.00000000 1.37722313 3 486021 1 2.31659389 0.04603810 0.00000000 1.56970179 4 486022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00189733 2.06644440 5 486031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00886824 2.83423877 6 486032 1 4.31795549 0.02242117 0.00000000 1.11403549 7 486041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00387708 2.04377413 8 486042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01274004 3.21724606 9 486051 1 1.70459116 0.00465423 0.00000000 0.62700051 10 486052 1 1.93359315 0.00494306 0.00000000 0.28085795 11 486071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00254640 2.00754976 12 486072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01463592 2.72831345 13 486081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00434065 2.17031384 14 486082 1 1.89456558 0.00567137 0.00000000 0.42054600 15 486091 1 1.74800301 0.05784536 0.00000000 1.65330696 16 486092 1 1.60081387 0.01089592 0.00000000 1.18322504 17 486101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00720424 2.40341878 18 486102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00909359 2.35709310 19 486111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00423452 3.18741679 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 486112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00093130 2.73616743 21 486121 1 1.53390777 0.00711414 0.00000000 0.70215845 22 486122 1 1.81922066 0.00913824 0.00000000 0.72562343 23 486131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00326825 2.22324753 24 486132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01017484 2.47681046 25 486141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00390271 1.62382793 26 486142 1 1.85574257 0.01568259 0.00000000 0.82219183 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 486011 1843 1977 135 1.001 0.257 -0.102 4.464 0.243 0.245 2 486012 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.280 0.299 3.209 0.277 0.157 3 486021 1871 1977 107 1.000 0.345 0.203 2.962 0.335 0.222 4 486022 1806 1977 172 1.000 0.310 0.986 4.191 0.272 0.319 5 486031 1795 1977 183 1.002 0.255 0.414 3.569 0.241 0.296 6 486032 1814 1977 164 1.000 0.331 -0.205 5.345 0.328 0.166 7 486041 1822 1977 156 1.000 0.285 0.519 2.744 0.258 0.313 8 486042 1806 1977 172 1.005 0.315 0.982 4.243 0.306 0.185 9 486051 1807 1977 171 1.000 0.288 1.256 6.149 0.275 0.158 10 486052 1792 1977 186 1.000 0.265 0.966 4.556 0.272 0.028 11 486071 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.294 2.773 14.600 0.259 0.272 12 486072 1883 1977 95 0.994 0.315 0.701 3.092 0.283 0.420 13 486081 1796 1977 182 1.000 0.371 1.162 4.736 0.306 0.348 14 486082 1801 1968 168 1.000 0.363 0.855 5.296 0.273 0.409 15 486091 1803 1977 175 1.000 0.266 0.562 3.114 0.273 0.217 16 486092 1797 1977 181 1.000 0.273 0.784 4.039 0.249 0.286 17 486101 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.290 0.233 3.750 0.296 0.208 18 486102 1836 1977 142 0.999 0.346 0.812 3.974 0.342 0.097 19 486111 1804 1977 174 1.000 0.307 0.710 3.158 0.260 0.347 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 486112 1805 1977 173 1.000 0.259 0.784 3.809 0.278 0.061 21 486121 1796 1977 182 1.000 0.355 0.033 3.394 0.368 0.142 22 486122 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.365 1.196 8.077 0.326 0.409 23 486131 1795 1977 183 0.999 0.265 0.208 3.483 0.237 0.379 24 486132 1837 1977 141 0.996 0.241 0.220 3.034 0.236 0.317 25 486141 1784 1969 186 1.000 0.354 0.935 5.615 0.297 0.251 26 486142 1796 1973 178 1.000 0.426 0.605 2.886 0.345 0.397 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 1.000 0.309 0.688 4.519 0.286 0.256 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.002 0.046 0.585 2.388 0.037 0.110 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 1.000 0.301 0.705 3.891 0.276 0.261 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.080 0.733 1.578 0.047 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.994 0.241 -0.205 2.744 0.236 0.028 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.266 0.233 3.158 0.259 0.166 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.346 0.966 4.736 0.306 0.347 MAXIMUM VALUE 186 1.005 0.426 2.773 14.600 0.368 0.420 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 486011 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 486012 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 486021 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 486022 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 486031 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 486032 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 486041 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 486042 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 486051 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 486052 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 486071 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 486072 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 486081 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 486082 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 486091 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 486092 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 486101 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 486102 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 486111 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 486112 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 486121 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 486122 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 486131 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 486132 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 486141 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 486142 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 486011 1843 1977 135 0.998 0.249 -0.119 3.984 0.243 0.181 2 486012 1831 1977 147 0.999 0.275 0.233 3.094 0.277 0.136 3 486021 1871 1977 107 0.997 0.338 0.216 2.773 0.335 0.193 4 486022 1806 1977 172 0.998 0.301 0.979 4.172 0.271 0.281 5 486031 1795 1977 183 0.999 0.245 0.280 3.276 0.241 0.255 6 486032 1814 1977 164 0.999 0.332 -0.180 5.249 0.328 0.158 7 486041 1822 1977 156 0.996 0.265 0.577 3.062 0.258 0.220 8 486042 1806 1977 172 0.998 0.297 0.932 4.368 0.306 0.106 9 486051 1807 1977 171 0.999 0.284 1.218 6.033 0.274 0.139 10 486052 1792 1977 186 1.000 0.264 0.973 4.567 0.272 0.018 11 486071 1884 1977 94 0.999 0.256 2.034 10.904 0.260 0.123 12 486072 1883 1977 95 0.996 0.245 0.658 3.464 0.282 -0.001 13 486081 1796 1977 182 0.993 0.312 0.645 3.807 0.305 0.165 14 486082 1801 1968 168 0.996 0.344 0.737 5.332 0.273 0.359 15 486091 1803 1977 175 0.999 0.257 0.573 3.054 0.274 0.173 16 486092 1797 1977 181 0.999 0.261 0.621 3.469 0.249 0.239 17 486101 1847 1977 131 0.997 0.276 0.142 3.861 0.296 0.119 18 486102 1836 1977 142 0.999 0.340 0.836 4.151 0.342 0.066 19 486111 1804 1977 174 0.999 0.294 0.717 3.529 0.260 0.272 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 486112 1805 1977 173 1.000 0.253 0.721 3.760 0.278 0.025 21 486121 1796 1977 182 0.998 0.347 -0.031 3.377 0.368 0.119 22 486122 1811 1977 167 0.993 0.338 0.927 6.754 0.326 0.307 23 486131 1795 1977 183 0.996 0.231 0.276 4.164 0.237 0.162 24 486132 1837 1977 141 0.998 0.225 0.193 3.010 0.236 0.188 25 486141 1784 1969 186 0.997 0.350 1.296 8.084 0.297 0.202 26 486142 1796 1973 178 0.993 0.410 0.757 3.468 0.345 0.346 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 0.997 0.292 0.624 4.414 0.286 0.175 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.002 0.046 0.487 1.818 0.037 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 0.998 0.280 0.652 3.834 0.276 0.169 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.003 0.082 0.694 1.190 0.046 0.120 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.993 0.225 -0.180 2.773 0.236 -0.001 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.996 0.256 0.233 3.377 0.260 0.119 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 181 0.999 0.338 0.927 4.567 0.306 0.239 MAXIMUM VALUE 186 1.000 0.410 2.034 10.904 0.368 0.359 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.371 0.094 0.005 0.031 2.745 0.141 0.661 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.141 SERIES 486032 AND 486141 156 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.661 SERIES 486141 AND 486142 174 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 136. 210. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.335 0.339 0.441 0.447 0.430 SDEV 0.173 0.153 0.145 0.156 0.144 SERR 0.015 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.911 0.923 0.952 0.955 0.951 NSS 20.5 23.4 25.1 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 1977 194 0.981 0.180 0.367 3.661 0.204 0.011 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.367 0.145 0.065 81 113 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.50 1.00 1.06 1.56 4.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.011 -0.052 -0.007 0.060 0.073 -0.054 -0.049 0.062 0.184 -0.039 PACF 0.011 -0.052 -0.005 0.057 0.072 -0.050 -0.041 0.056 0.173 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.151 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.006 -0.069 -0.011 0.084 0.139 -0.031 -0.060 0.101 0.138 -0.067 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.006 2 -0.007 -0.069 3 -0.008 -0.069 -0.012 4 -0.007 -0.063 -0.011 0.079 5 -0.018 -0.062 -0.002 0.080 0.141 6 -0.016 -0.061 -0.002 0.079 0.140 -0.017 7 -0.016 -0.055 0.001 0.079 0.138 -0.018 -0.043 8 -0.012 -0.053 -0.012 0.072 0.138 -0.013 -0.042 0.095 9 -0.023 -0.048 -0.010 0.056 0.129 -0.011 -0.036 0.096 0.117 10 -0.015 -0.041 -0.013 0.055 0.138 -0.007 -0.036 0.093 0.115 -0.072 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1575.77 1577.76 1578.84 1580.81 1581.59 1579.71 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1581.66 1583.29 1583.54 1582.88 1583.88 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 486011 0 0.035 2 486012 0 0.020 3 486021 0 0.039 4 486022 0 0.083 5 486031 0 0.065 6 486032 0 0.025 7 486041 0 0.049 8 486042 0 0.011 9 486051 0 0.019 10 486052 0 0.000 11 486071 0 0.015 12 486072 0 0.000 13 486081 0 0.028 14 486082 0 0.133 15 486091 0 0.030 16 486092 0 0.059 17 486101 0 0.015 18 486102 0 0.005 19 486111 0 0.076 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 486112 0 0.001 21 486121 0 0.015 22 486122 0 0.098 23 486131 0 0.026 24 486132 0 0.036 25 486141 0 0.041 26 486142 0 0.121 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.040 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.036 MEDIAN 0 0.029 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.044 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.015 UPPER HINGE 0 0.059 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.133 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 486011 1843 1977 135 1.000 0.249 -0.119 3.984 0.242 0.181 2 486012 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.275 0.233 3.094 0.277 0.136 3 486021 1871 1977 107 1.000 0.338 0.216 2.773 0.334 0.193 4 486022 1806 1977 172 1.000 0.301 0.979 4.172 0.271 0.281 5 486031 1795 1977 183 1.000 0.245 0.280 3.276 0.240 0.255 6 486032 1814 1977 164 1.000 0.332 -0.180 5.249 0.328 0.158 7 486041 1822 1977 156 1.000 0.265 0.577 3.062 0.256 0.220 8 486042 1806 1977 172 1.000 0.297 0.932 4.368 0.305 0.106 9 486051 1807 1977 171 1.000 0.284 1.218 6.033 0.274 0.139 10 486052 1792 1977 186 1.000 0.264 0.973 4.567 0.272 0.018 11 486071 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.256 2.034 10.904 0.259 0.123 12 486072 1883 1977 95 1.000 0.245 0.658 3.464 0.281 -0.001 13 486081 1796 1977 182 1.000 0.312 0.645 3.807 0.303 0.165 14 486082 1801 1968 168 1.000 0.344 0.737 5.332 0.272 0.359 15 486091 1803 1977 175 1.000 0.257 0.573 3.054 0.273 0.173 16 486092 1797 1977 181 1.000 0.261 0.621 3.469 0.249 0.239 17 486101 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.276 0.142 3.861 0.295 0.119 18 486102 1836 1977 142 1.000 0.340 0.836 4.151 0.341 0.066 19 486111 1804 1977 174 1.000 0.294 0.717 3.529 0.259 0.272 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 486112 1805 1977 173 1.000 0.253 0.721 3.760 0.278 0.025 21 486121 1796 1977 182 1.000 0.347 -0.031 3.377 0.367 0.119 22 486122 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.338 0.927 6.754 0.324 0.307 23 486131 1795 1977 183 1.000 0.231 0.276 4.164 0.236 0.162 24 486132 1837 1977 141 1.000 0.225 0.193 3.010 0.236 0.188 25 486141 1784 1969 186 1.000 0.350 1.296 8.084 0.296 0.202 26 486142 1796 1973 178 1.000 0.410 0.757 3.468 0.342 0.346 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 1.000 0.292 0.624 4.414 0.285 0.175 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.046 0.487 1.818 0.036 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 1.000 0.280 0.652 3.834 0.276 0.169 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.082 0.694 1.190 0.046 0.120 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.225 -0.180 2.773 0.236 -0.001 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.256 0.233 3.377 0.259 0.119 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.338 0.927 4.567 0.305 0.239 MAXIMUM VALUE 186 1.000 0.410 2.034 10.904 0.367 0.359 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.371 0.094 0.005 0.031 2.745 0.141 0.661 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.141 SERIES 486032 AND 486141 156 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.661 SERIES 486141 AND 486142 174 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 136. 210. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.335 0.339 0.441 0.447 0.430 SDEV 0.173 0.153 0.145 0.156 0.144 SERR 0.015 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.911 0.923 0.952 0.955 0.951 NSS 20.5 23.4 25.1 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 1977 194 0.983 0.180 0.367 3.663 0.203 0.012 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.369 0.146 0.064 79 115 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.50 1.00 1.07 1.57 4.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.012 -0.052 -0.007 0.060 0.073 -0.054 -0.049 0.062 0.183 -0.039 PACF 0.012 -0.052 -0.006 0.058 0.072 -0.050 -0.041 0.056 0.173 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.151 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 1977 194 0.983 0.180 0.367 3.663 0.203 0.012 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.012 -0.052 -0.007 0.060 0.073 -0.054 -0.049 0.062 0.183 -0.039 PACF 0.012 -0.052 -0.006 0.058 0.072 -0.050 -0.041 0.056 0.173 -0.038 95% C.L. 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.151 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES