RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN020W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN020W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 486 1 Pic Aubas WIDTH_RING ABAL - 486 2 France silver fir, European fir 1800 4246-37 1784 1977 - 486 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 486081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1841 1847 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 486011 1843 1977 135 1.233 0.604 0.847 3.055 0.168 0.881 2 486012 1831 1977 147 1.573 0.712 0.385 3.362 0.169 0.840 3 486021 1871 1977 107 0.994 0.525 1.572 4.787 0.197 0.847 4 486022 1806 1977 172 1.402 1.012 1.953 9.025 0.182 0.845 5 486031 1795 1977 183 1.088 0.507 1.011 3.429 0.179 0.851 6 486032 1814 1977 164 0.964 0.317 0.610 2.868 0.185 0.777 7 486041 1822 1977 156 1.236 0.518 0.637 2.983 0.187 0.754 8 486042 1806 1977 172 1.335 0.529 0.444 2.793 0.198 0.743 9 486051 1807 1977 171 1.320 0.515 0.702 3.532 0.185 0.761 10 486052 1792 1977 186 1.522 0.559 0.635 3.467 0.180 0.742 11 486071 1884 1977 94 2.036 1.035 -0.094 1.880 0.149 0.898 12 486072 1883 1977 95 2.259 1.051 0.344 2.558 0.153 0.901 13 486081 1796 1977 182 1.384 0.883 1.505 4.756 0.209 0.881 14 486082 1801 1968 168 1.252 0.794 1.651 6.262 0.185 0.852 15 486091 1803 1977 175 1.612 0.838 1.125 4.729 0.180 0.885 16 486092 1797 1977 181 1.465 0.780 2.026 8.230 0.189 0.898 17 486101 1847 1977 131 1.615 1.157 0.853 3.149 0.155 0.923 18 486102 1836 1977 142 1.489 0.542 0.199 3.076 0.155 0.769 19 486111 1804 1977 174 1.486 0.943 1.613 5.717 0.218 0.851 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 486112 1805 1977 173 1.672 0.872 0.931 3.421 0.193 0.833 21 486121 1796 1977 182 1.377 0.592 0.266 2.773 0.166 0.867 22 486122 1811 1977 167 1.722 0.618 0.546 2.938 0.160 0.815 23 486131 1795 1977 183 1.413 0.681 0.662 2.416 0.174 0.861 24 486132 1837 1977 141 1.254 0.456 1.173 4.657 0.160 0.793 25 486141 1784 1969 186 1.605 0.989 0.189 2.143 0.179 0.902 26 486142 1796 1973 178 1.591 1.081 0.758 2.598 0.194 0.887 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1784 TO 1977 194 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 1.458 0.735 0.867 3.869 0.179 0.841 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.285 0.231 0.566 1.765 0.018 0.055 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 1.439 0.697 0.730 3.256 0.180 0.851 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.351 0.414 0.729 1.936 0.023 0.092 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.964 0.317 -0.094 1.880 0.149 0.742 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 1.254 0.529 0.444 2.793 0.166 0.793 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.605 0.943 1.173 4.729 0.189 0.885 MAXIMUM VALUE 186 2.259 1.157 2.026 9.025 0.218 0.923 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.602 0.181 0.010 -1.022 4.276 -0.136 0.919 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.136 SERIES 486051 AND 486101 131 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.919 SERIES 486021 AND 486022 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 136. 210. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.292 0.263 0.434 0.344 0.578 SDEV 0.263 0.287 0.283 0.285 0.233 SERR 0.023 0.020 0.018 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.894 0.893 0.951 0.932 0.973 NSS 20.5 23.4 25.1 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 1977 194 1.555 0.702 1.038 4.388 0.138 0.888 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.417 0.149 0.277 91 103 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.62 1.00 1.13 1.75 4.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 172. 39. 94. 142. 181. 186. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.883 0.829 0.755 0.713 0.643 0.594 0.558 0.547 0.529 0.524 PACF 0.883 0.222 -0.053 0.089 -0.096 0.007 0.083 0.116 0.033 0.059 95% C.L. 0.144 0.230 0.285 0.323 0.354 0.378 0.396 0.412 0.427 0.440 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.826 0.642 0.287 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 486011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01335548 2.14098740 2 486012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01134678 2.41265488 3 486021 1 1.76920784 0.03694228 0.00000000 0.56263381 4 486022 1 3.48224068 0.01586023 0.00000000 0.21868429 5 486031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00663615 1.69812167 6 486032 1 0.89603174 0.01886355 0.00000000 0.68993431 7 486041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00838729 1.89417124 8 486042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00765037 1.99635053 9 486051 1 1.41649139 0.02949187 0.00000000 1.04499042 10 486052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00696437 2.17364144 11 486071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03296341 3.60140014 12 486072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02825532 3.61509752 13 486081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01196159 2.49142265 14 486082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01312771 2.36173153 15 486091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00859413 2.36845517 16 486092 1 3.69072628 0.09132077 0.00000000 1.25211692 17 486101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02391352 3.19378853 18 486102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01015686 2.21480680 19 486111 1 3.15224361 0.02982147 0.00000000 0.89056712 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 486112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01373419 2.86666632 21 486121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00789491 2.09897757 22 486122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00401906 2.05987668 23 486131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01039631 2.36913776 24 486132 1 1.06136334 0.01771381 0.00000000 0.86730897 25 486141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01501595 3.00861502 26 486142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01620095 3.04122066 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 486011 1843 1977 135 1.020 0.245 0.401 2.986 0.166 0.622 2 486012 1831 1977 147 0.982 0.326 0.238 2.446 0.168 0.775 3 486021 1871 1977 107 1.000 0.253 0.302 3.222 0.196 0.509 4 486022 1806 1977 172 1.000 0.253 0.347 3.738 0.181 0.559 5 486031 1795 1977 183 1.002 0.296 0.411 2.924 0.178 0.704 6 486032 1814 1977 164 1.000 0.231 -0.005 2.835 0.183 0.523 7 486041 1822 1977 156 0.998 0.272 0.345 2.632 0.186 0.573 8 486042 1806 1977 172 0.995 0.267 0.470 2.730 0.197 0.554 9 486051 1807 1977 171 1.000 0.298 -0.019 2.963 0.184 0.717 10 486052 1792 1977 186 0.996 0.252 0.302 3.090 0.179 0.559 11 486071 1884 1977 94 0.972 0.246 0.373 2.923 0.146 0.733 12 486072 1883 1977 95 0.979 0.282 0.574 2.826 0.149 0.751 13 486081 1796 1977 182 1.023 0.359 0.733 3.495 0.208 0.721 14 486082 1801 1968 168 1.067 0.395 1.745 7.334 0.184 0.725 15 486091 1803 1977 175 0.988 0.383 0.366 2.626 0.179 0.846 16 486092 1797 1977 181 1.000 0.341 -0.358 2.559 0.187 0.765 17 486101 1847 1977 131 1.169 1.042 4.057 19.536 0.158 0.829 18 486102 1836 1977 142 0.994 0.234 0.367 3.948 0.153 0.615 19 486111 1804 1977 174 1.000 0.382 0.834 3.348 0.217 0.709 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 486112 1805 1977 173 1.010 0.300 0.643 3.453 0.192 0.682 21 486121 1796 1977 182 0.988 0.299 0.082 2.563 0.165 0.764 22 486122 1811 1977 167 0.997 0.347 0.839 3.212 0.159 0.806 23 486131 1795 1977 183 1.017 0.300 0.542 2.987 0.172 0.710 24 486132 1837 1977 141 1.000 0.270 0.090 3.210 0.159 0.702 25 486141 1784 1969 186 0.952 0.348 0.973 3.483 0.177 0.808 26 486142 1796 1973 178 1.000 0.370 0.929 3.701 0.193 0.753 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 1.006 0.330 0.599 3.876 0.178 0.693 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.039 0.154 0.813 3.324 0.018 0.098 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 1.000 0.299 0.387 3.038 0.179 0.714 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.008 0.095 0.431 0.657 0.023 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.952 0.231 -0.358 2.446 0.146 0.509 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.994 0.253 0.302 2.826 0.165 0.615 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 181 1.002 0.348 0.733 3.483 0.187 0.764 MAXIMUM VALUE 186 1.169 1.042 4.057 19.536 0.217 0.846 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 486011 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 486012 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 486021 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 486022 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 486031 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 486032 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 486041 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 486042 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 486051 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 486052 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 486071 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 486072 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 486081 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 486082 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 486091 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 486092 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 486101 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 486102 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 486111 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 486112 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 486121 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 486122 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 486131 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 486132 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 486141 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 486142 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 486011 1843 1977 135 0.999 0.210 0.376 2.910 0.167 0.521 2 486012 1831 1977 147 0.995 0.248 0.934 4.604 0.168 0.557 3 486021 1871 1977 107 0.999 0.247 0.333 3.196 0.197 0.493 4 486022 1806 1977 172 0.999 0.247 0.390 3.983 0.181 0.537 5 486031 1795 1977 183 0.996 0.275 0.388 3.093 0.178 0.661 6 486032 1814 1977 164 0.997 0.214 -0.020 2.757 0.183 0.457 7 486041 1822 1977 156 0.996 0.254 0.340 2.619 0.186 0.514 8 486042 1806 1977 172 0.999 0.257 0.473 2.774 0.196 0.502 9 486051 1807 1977 171 0.994 0.276 0.074 2.969 0.184 0.678 10 486052 1792 1977 186 0.999 0.236 0.188 3.528 0.179 0.500 11 486071 1884 1977 94 0.998 0.193 0.567 3.071 0.145 0.516 12 486072 1883 1977 95 0.996 0.185 0.159 3.065 0.148 0.468 13 486081 1796 1977 182 0.993 0.308 0.546 3.149 0.208 0.642 14 486082 1801 1968 168 0.996 0.246 0.336 3.765 0.184 0.489 15 486091 1803 1977 175 0.989 0.305 0.799 5.457 0.178 0.755 16 486092 1797 1977 181 0.992 0.276 -0.124 3.869 0.187 0.651 17 486101 1847 1977 131 0.975 0.324 0.634 3.570 0.154 0.756 18 486102 1836 1977 142 0.997 0.202 0.310 3.909 0.153 0.494 19 486111 1804 1977 174 0.996 0.326 0.320 2.504 0.216 0.627 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 486112 1805 1977 173 0.997 0.270 0.339 2.769 0.192 0.615 21 486121 1796 1977 182 0.998 0.276 0.604 4.228 0.164 0.706 22 486122 1811 1977 167 0.996 0.231 0.551 2.874 0.157 0.586 23 486131 1795 1977 183 0.992 0.219 0.267 3.294 0.173 0.520 24 486132 1837 1977 141 0.997 0.258 0.115 3.272 0.159 0.680 25 486141 1784 1969 186 0.992 0.248 0.590 3.325 0.177 0.604 26 486142 1796 1973 178 0.989 0.305 0.527 3.163 0.192 0.667 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 0.995 0.255 0.385 3.374 0.177 0.585 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.005 0.039 0.241 0.668 0.018 0.091 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 0.996 0.251 0.358 3.179 0.179 0.571 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.004 0.045 0.285 0.855 0.023 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.975 0.185 -0.124 2.504 0.145 0.457 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.993 0.231 0.267 2.910 0.164 0.502 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 181 0.998 0.276 0.551 3.765 0.187 0.661 MAXIMUM VALUE 186 0.999 0.326 0.934 5.457 0.216 0.756 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.336 0.149 0.008 -0.305 3.168 -0.166 0.746 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.166 SERIES 486101 AND 486132 131 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.746 SERIES 486021 AND 486022 107 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 136. 210. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.358 0.274 0.392 0.378 0.322 SDEV 0.227 0.222 0.238 0.224 0.211 SERR 0.019 0.015 0.015 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.919 0.899 0.942 0.940 0.925 NSS 20.5 23.4 25.1 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 1977 194 1.002 0.172 0.151 2.953 0.140 0.462 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.137 0.058 0.142 67 127 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.42 1.00 1.08 1.50 4.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.459 0.292 0.106 0.046 0.019 0.074 0.022 -0.043 -0.087 -0.116 PACF 0.459 0.103 -0.080 -0.002 0.012 0.083 -0.049 -0.086 -0.045 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.144 0.171 0.181 0.182 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.183 0.184 0.185 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.226 0.413 0.105 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.407 0.260 0.087 -0.010 0.019 0.105 0.070 0.028 0.004 -0.038 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.407 2 0.361 0.113 3 0.369 0.136 -0.064 4 0.365 0.144 -0.041 -0.062 5 0.368 0.146 -0.049 -0.083 0.056 6 0.361 0.157 -0.043 -0.101 0.010 0.126 7 0.364 0.157 -0.045 -0.102 0.013 0.134 -0.021 8 0.363 0.164 -0.044 -0.108 0.011 0.142 -0.002 -0.052 9 0.363 0.164 -0.044 -0.108 0.011 0.142 -0.002 -0.051 -0.002 10 0.363 0.163 -0.044 -0.105 0.011 0.140 -0.003 -0.048 0.004 -0.017 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1497.14 1463.95 1463.47 1464.69 1465.93 1467.31 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1466.21 1468.12 1469.60 1471.60 1473.54 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.361 0.113 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 17.65 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 121.43 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.361 0.243 0.129 0.074 0.041 0.023 0.013 0.007 0.004 0.0023 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 486011 2 0.295 0.447 0.144 2 486012 2 0.356 0.535 0.094 3 486021 2 0.261 0.508 -0.017 4 486022 2 0.319 0.582 -0.052 5 486031 2 0.463 0.521 0.213 6 486032 2 0.262 0.340 0.258 7 486041 2 0.314 0.386 0.251 8 486042 2 0.298 0.416 0.174 9 486051 2 0.479 0.578 0.153 10 486052 2 0.284 0.399 0.204 11 486071 2 0.318 0.595 -0.119 12 486072 2 0.246 0.421 0.109 13 486081 2 0.448 0.527 0.189 14 486082 2 0.291 0.384 0.233 15 486091 2 0.594 0.649 0.148 16 486092 2 0.437 0.583 0.111 17 486101 2 0.632 0.696 0.120 18 486102 2 0.261 0.462 0.085 19 486111 2 0.407 0.556 0.119 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 486112 2 0.395 0.587 0.061 21 486121 2 0.502 0.694 0.019 22 486122 2 0.359 0.517 0.123 23 486131 2 0.310 0.405 0.222 24 486132 2 0.505 0.522 0.236 25 486141 2 0.383 0.513 0.152 26 486142 2 0.500 0.525 0.225 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.381 0.513 0.133 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.107 0.095 0.095 MEDIAN 2 0.358 0.522 0.146 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.169 0.162 0.119 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.246 0.340 -0.119 LOWER HINGE 2 0.295 0.421 0.094 UPPER HINGE 2 0.463 0.582 0.213 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.632 0.696 0.258 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 486011 1843 1977 135 1.000 0.177 0.447 3.371 0.193 0.014 2 486012 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.196 0.327 4.307 0.210 -0.040 3 486021 1871 1977 107 1.000 0.214 -0.007 3.419 0.241 0.002 4 486022 1806 1977 172 1.000 0.204 -0.053 3.780 0.221 -0.015 5 486031 1795 1977 183 1.000 0.202 0.385 3.417 0.218 0.004 6 486032 1814 1977 164 1.000 0.184 -0.016 2.793 0.207 0.000 7 486041 1822 1977 156 1.000 0.211 0.188 3.093 0.228 -0.012 8 486042 1806 1977 172 1.000 0.218 0.321 3.309 0.234 0.029 9 486051 1807 1977 171 1.000 0.199 0.137 2.941 0.227 0.000 10 486052 1792 1977 186 1.000 0.200 0.548 6.158 0.210 -0.009 11 486071 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.162 -0.019 3.164 0.195 -0.028 12 486072 1883 1977 95 1.000 0.162 -0.023 3.442 0.176 0.014 13 486081 1796 1977 182 1.000 0.229 0.200 3.700 0.256 -0.025 14 486082 1801 1968 168 1.000 0.206 0.355 3.344 0.223 -0.003 15 486091 1803 1977 175 1.000 0.194 0.274 3.499 0.214 0.004 16 486092 1797 1977 181 1.000 0.207 0.165 3.316 0.229 -0.001 17 486101 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.196 0.562 4.145 0.206 0.026 18 486102 1836 1977 142 1.000 0.174 0.396 3.580 0.185 0.000 19 486111 1804 1977 174 1.000 0.251 0.533 4.239 0.272 -0.009 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 486112 1805 1977 173 1.000 0.209 0.233 3.334 0.231 -0.007 21 486121 1796 1977 182 1.000 0.195 0.763 5.507 0.219 0.000 22 486122 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.185 0.463 3.441 0.199 -0.008 23 486131 1795 1977 183 1.000 0.182 0.307 2.916 0.205 -0.015 24 486132 1837 1977 141 1.000 0.183 0.518 5.016 0.197 0.028 25 486141 1784 1969 186 1.000 0.195 0.253 3.833 0.216 -0.011 26 486142 1796 1973 178 1.000 0.218 0.193 3.530 0.246 -0.034 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 1.000 0.198 0.287 3.715 0.218 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.020 0.212 0.791 0.022 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 1.000 0.198 0.291 3.441 0.217 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.025 0.282 0.517 0.023 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.162 -0.053 2.793 0.176 -0.040 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.184 0.165 3.316 0.205 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.209 0.447 3.833 0.229 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 186 1.000 0.251 0.763 6.158 0.272 0.029 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.467 0.096 0.005 0.149 3.068 0.178 0.748 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.178 SERIES 486081 AND 486132 141 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.748 SERIES 486071 AND 486072 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 136. 210. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.539 0.470 0.488 0.450 0.457 SDEV 0.133 0.125 0.129 0.135 0.134 SERR 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.960 0.954 0.960 0.955 0.956 NSS 20.5 23.4 25.1 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 1977 194 0.999 0.145 -0.019 3.263 0.169 -0.094 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.181 0.065 0.072 71 123 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.37 1.00 1.07 1.44 3.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.094 -0.013 -0.092 -0.057 -0.068 0.094 0.029 -0.022 -0.042 -0.110 PACF -0.094 -0.022 -0.096 -0.077 -0.088 0.067 0.029 -0.032 -0.042 -0.113 95% C.L. 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.148 0.149 0.149 0.149 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.011 -0.105 -0.072 -0.066 0.091 0.034 -0.024 -0.055 -0.115 PACF -0.002 -0.011 -0.105 -0.074 -0.071 0.078 0.020 -0.042 -0.049 -0.108 95% C.L. 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.146 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.011 -0.003 -0.011 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 1977 194 1.000 0.155 0.070 2.687 0.138 0.365 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.363 0.183 -0.010 -0.044 -0.042 0.052 0.012 -0.051 -0.100 -0.141 PACF 0.363 0.058 -0.108 -0.022 0.000 0.087 -0.038 -0.084 -0.058 -0.074 95% C.L. 0.144 0.161 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.168 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.136 0.365 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES