RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN020X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN020X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 486 1 Pic Aubas DENSITY_MAXIMUM ABAL - 486 2 France silver fir, European fir 1800 4246-37 1784 1977 - 486 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 486081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1841 1847 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 486011 1843 1977 135 0.781 0.099 -0.435 2.730 0.078 0.682 2 486012 1831 1977 147 0.824 0.084 -1.105 5.270 0.071 0.523 3 486021 1871 1977 107 0.790 0.101 -1.057 4.083 0.091 0.565 4 486022 1806 1977 172 0.850 0.061 -0.217 2.920 0.077 0.086 5 486031 1795 1977 183 0.841 0.081 -0.181 2.512 0.063 0.672 6 486032 1814 1977 164 0.740 0.128 0.149 1.940 0.072 0.869 7 486041 1822 1977 156 0.825 0.064 -0.321 2.890 0.073 0.286 8 486042 1806 1977 172 0.809 0.059 -0.555 3.162 0.070 0.213 9 486051 1807 1977 171 0.859 0.072 -0.991 4.222 0.074 0.313 10 486052 1792 1977 186 0.844 0.075 -0.808 3.851 0.077 0.397 11 486071 1884 1977 94 0.844 0.057 -0.607 3.502 0.065 0.205 12 486072 1883 1977 95 0.872 0.071 -0.858 4.290 0.063 0.477 13 486081 1796 1977 182 0.839 0.102 -0.778 3.480 0.084 0.616 14 486082 1801 1968 168 0.790 0.117 -0.530 2.814 0.082 0.751 15 486091 1803 1977 175 0.841 0.073 -0.236 2.939 0.069 0.476 16 486092 1797 1977 181 0.827 0.077 -0.755 3.973 0.069 0.536 17 486101 1847 1977 131 0.780 0.106 0.122 2.404 0.091 0.622 18 486102 1836 1977 142 0.768 0.076 -0.602 3.846 0.086 0.334 19 486111 1804 1977 174 0.829 0.074 -0.214 3.139 0.068 0.501 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 486112 1805 1977 173 0.879 0.058 -0.501 3.133 0.060 0.303 21 486121 1796 1977 182 0.770 0.104 -0.759 3.205 0.084 0.667 22 486122 1811 1977 167 0.765 0.093 -0.304 3.245 0.086 0.600 23 486131 1795 1977 183 0.870 0.092 -1.116 4.066 0.085 0.457 24 486132 1837 1977 141 0.826 0.086 -1.165 4.113 0.076 0.548 25 486141 1784 1969 186 0.809 0.151 -1.095 3.711 0.083 0.840 26 486142 1796 1973 178 0.786 0.144 -0.785 2.954 0.089 0.820 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1784 TO 1977 194 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 0.818 0.089 -0.604 3.400 0.076 0.514 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.037 0.025 0.378 0.724 0.009 0.205 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 0.825 0.083 -0.605 3.225 0.077 0.530 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 36 0.057 0.030 0.554 1.053 0.015 0.333 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.740 0.057 -1.165 1.940 0.060 0.086 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.786 0.072 -0.858 2.920 0.069 0.334 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 0.844 0.102 -0.304 3.973 0.084 0.667 MAXIMUM VALUE 186 0.879 0.151 0.149 5.270 0.091 0.869 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.603 0.176 0.010 -1.090 4.187 -0.065 0.917 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.065 SERIES 486022 AND 486032 164 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.917 SERIES 486141 AND 486142 174 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 136. 210. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.400 0.384 0.564 0.565 0.553 SDEV 0.204 0.235 0.154 0.145 0.158 SERR 0.017 0.016 0.010 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.932 0.936 0.970 0.971 0.970 NSS 20.5 23.4 25.1 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 1977 194 0.834 0.072 -0.785 3.437 0.060 0.564 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.575 -0.192 0.223 79 115 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.36 1.00 1.06 1.41 6.47 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 172. 39. 94. 142. 181. 186. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.561 0.626 0.592 0.578 0.582 0.548 0.566 0.514 0.565 0.481 PACF 0.561 0.454 0.268 0.169 0.154 0.071 0.102 0.001 0.114 -0.046 95% C.L. 0.144 0.183 0.223 0.253 0.279 0.303 0.323 0.343 0.358 0.376 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.593 0.020 0.271 0.244 0.204 0.168 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 486011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00206673 0.92164844 2 486012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00129049 0.91998601 3 486021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00211348 0.90366071 4 486022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006438 0.84396571 5 486031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00125792 0.95660299 6 486032 1 0.46821240 0.01168031 0.00000000 0.53278375 7 486041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063773 0.87506205 8 486042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015875 0.82320887 9 486051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048055 0.89992362 10 486052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00074092 0.91282475 11 486071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008597 0.84791350 12 486072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00133665 0.93636954 13 486081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00146073 0.97555751 14 486082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00171877 0.93481964 15 486091 1 0.28011984 0.00523964 0.00000000 0.65767539 16 486092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087505 0.90648067 17 486101 1 0.53442103 0.00603943 0.00000000 0.41164905 18 486102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097923 0.83818400 19 486111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00064898 0.88592386 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 486112 1 0.04403271 0.02255708 0.00000000 0.86843312 21 486121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00139678 0.89731103 22 486122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00105527 0.85355312 23 486131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00103518 0.96490902 24 486132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00140498 0.92542756 25 486141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00229281 1.02324843 26 486142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00238836 1.00010669 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 486011 1843 1977 135 1.000 0.078 -0.021 4.491 0.077 0.162 2 486012 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.081 -0.715 5.824 0.071 0.227 3 486021 1871 1977 107 1.000 0.101 -0.586 3.921 0.090 0.297 4 486022 1806 1977 172 1.000 0.072 -0.250 2.943 0.076 0.081 5 486031 1795 1977 183 1.000 0.056 -0.405 3.626 0.062 0.025 6 486032 1814 1977 164 1.000 0.091 -0.027 3.305 0.072 0.461 7 486041 1822 1977 156 1.000 0.069 -0.168 3.111 0.072 0.109 8 486042 1806 1977 172 1.000 0.072 -0.485 3.024 0.070 0.201 9 486051 1807 1977 171 1.000 0.079 -0.922 4.492 0.074 0.241 10 486052 1792 1977 186 1.000 0.077 -0.387 3.427 0.076 0.179 11 486071 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.068 -0.563 3.412 0.065 0.204 12 486072 1883 1977 95 1.000 0.070 -0.613 3.280 0.063 0.316 13 486081 1796 1977 182 1.000 0.083 -0.504 4.411 0.082 0.134 14 486082 1801 1968 168 0.999 0.104 -0.549 2.881 0.082 0.465 15 486091 1803 1977 175 1.000 0.066 -0.414 3.158 0.069 0.106 16 486092 1797 1977 181 1.000 0.075 -0.822 4.228 0.069 0.287 17 486101 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.083 -0.349 3.385 0.090 0.025 18 486102 1836 1977 142 1.000 0.085 -0.284 3.740 0.086 0.107 19 486111 1804 1977 174 1.000 0.080 -0.354 2.975 0.068 0.383 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 486112 1805 1977 173 1.000 0.064 -0.599 3.195 0.060 0.267 21 486121 1796 1977 182 1.000 0.098 -0.481 3.389 0.084 0.336 22 486122 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.103 -0.130 3.247 0.085 0.448 23 486131 1795 1977 183 1.000 0.088 -0.665 3.884 0.085 0.189 24 486132 1837 1977 141 1.000 0.081 -0.618 3.693 0.076 0.242 25 486141 1784 1969 186 0.999 0.121 -0.992 4.361 0.083 0.600 26 486142 1796 1973 178 0.999 0.104 -0.569 3.366 0.089 0.413 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 1.000 0.083 -0.480 3.645 0.076 0.250 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.015 0.247 0.667 0.009 0.147 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 1.000 0.080 -0.495 3.401 0.076 0.234 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.019 0.264 0.726 0.015 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.999 0.056 -0.992 2.881 0.060 0.025 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.072 -0.613 3.195 0.069 0.134 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.091 -0.349 3.921 0.084 0.336 MAXIMUM VALUE 186 1.000 0.121 -0.021 5.824 0.090 0.600 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 486011 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 486012 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 486021 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 486022 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 486031 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 486032 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 486041 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 486042 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 486051 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 486052 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 486071 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 486072 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 486081 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 486082 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 486091 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 486092 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 486101 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 486102 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 486111 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 486112 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 486121 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 486122 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 486131 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 486132 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 486141 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 486142 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 486011 1843 1977 135 1.000 0.076 0.002 4.190 0.077 0.123 2 486012 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.072 -0.508 5.016 0.070 0.049 3 486021 1871 1977 107 1.000 0.089 -0.394 4.629 0.090 0.104 4 486022 1806 1977 172 1.000 0.068 -0.297 3.181 0.076 -0.044 5 486031 1795 1977 183 1.000 0.056 -0.399 3.611 0.062 0.006 6 486032 1814 1977 164 0.999 0.077 -0.307 3.666 0.072 0.260 7 486041 1822 1977 156 1.000 0.063 -0.077 2.794 0.073 -0.053 8 486042 1806 1977 172 1.000 0.067 -0.325 2.649 0.070 0.083 9 486051 1807 1977 171 1.000 0.073 -0.985 4.780 0.074 0.111 10 486052 1792 1977 186 1.000 0.072 -0.371 3.266 0.076 0.083 11 486071 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.061 -0.314 2.868 0.065 0.048 12 486072 1883 1977 95 1.000 0.059 -0.291 3.150 0.062 0.065 13 486081 1796 1977 182 1.000 0.079 -0.346 4.179 0.082 0.029 14 486082 1801 1968 168 0.999 0.086 -0.350 3.397 0.082 0.226 15 486091 1803 1977 175 1.000 0.064 -0.351 3.047 0.069 0.051 16 486092 1797 1977 181 1.000 0.071 -0.570 3.892 0.069 0.223 17 486101 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.082 -0.354 3.382 0.090 0.003 18 486102 1836 1977 142 1.000 0.080 -0.319 3.250 0.085 0.017 19 486111 1804 1977 174 1.000 0.075 -0.476 3.104 0.068 0.319 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 486112 1805 1977 173 1.000 0.062 -0.546 3.233 0.060 0.219 21 486121 1796 1977 182 1.000 0.089 -0.408 3.965 0.084 0.195 22 486122 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.098 -0.115 3.105 0.085 0.397 23 486131 1795 1977 183 1.000 0.077 -0.750 4.405 0.084 -0.041 24 486132 1837 1977 141 1.000 0.068 -0.467 3.548 0.076 -0.059 25 486141 1784 1969 186 0.999 0.093 -0.599 4.677 0.083 0.358 26 486142 1796 1973 178 1.000 0.091 -0.223 3.683 0.089 0.228 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 1.000 0.075 -0.390 3.641 0.076 0.115 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.011 0.201 0.659 0.009 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 1.000 0.074 -0.352 3.473 0.076 0.083 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.015 0.169 1.029 0.015 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.999 0.056 -0.985 2.649 0.060 -0.059 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.067 -0.476 3.150 0.069 0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.082 -0.307 4.179 0.084 0.223 MAXIMUM VALUE 186 1.000 0.098 0.002 5.016 0.090 0.397 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.517 0.123 0.007 -0.592 3.306 0.081 0.774 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.081 SERIES 486032 AND 486122 164 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.774 SERIES 486131 AND 486132 141 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 136. 210. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.440 0.365 0.534 0.565 0.544 SDEV 0.172 0.204 0.163 0.140 0.138 SERR 0.015 0.014 0.010 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.941 0.931 0.967 0.971 0.969 NSS 20.5 23.4 25.1 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 1977 194 0.999 0.053 -0.327 3.619 0.059 -0.118 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.118 -0.038 0.084 76 118 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.56 1.01 1.11 1.68 3.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.117 0.121 0.022 0.021 0.042 0.002 0.047 -0.049 0.146 -0.084 PACF -0.117 0.109 0.048 0.016 0.039 0.006 0.038 -0.045 0.128 -0.051 95% C.L. 0.144 0.146 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.149 0.152 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.029 -0.107 0.108 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.136 0.085 0.008 -0.019 0.073 -0.014 0.068 -0.058 0.166 -0.113 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.136 2 -0.126 0.068 3 -0.128 0.071 0.029 4 -0.128 0.073 0.026 -0.021 5 -0.126 0.071 0.021 -0.013 0.066 6 -0.127 0.071 0.021 -0.013 0.067 0.007 7 -0.127 0.067 0.022 -0.014 0.063 0.014 0.058 8 -0.125 0.068 0.025 -0.015 0.064 0.017 0.052 -0.045 9 -0.118 0.060 0.022 -0.025 0.066 0.014 0.042 -0.026 0.151 10 -0.106 0.058 0.025 -0.024 0.071 0.012 0.044 -0.022 0.142 -0.078 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1107.04 1105.44 1106.55 1108.39 1110.30 1111.45 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1113.44 1114.79 1116.39 1113.91 1114.73 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.136 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.84 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.87 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.136 0.018 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 486011 1 0.019 0.129 2 486012 1 0.025 0.052 3 486021 1 0.013 0.107 4 486022 1 0.051 -0.045 5 486031 1 0.027 0.006 6 486032 1 0.137 0.260 7 486041 1 0.047 -0.053 8 486042 1 0.025 0.084 9 486051 1 0.097 0.113 10 486052 1 0.040 0.085 11 486071 1 0.003 0.050 12 486072 1 0.014 0.066 13 486081 1 0.009 0.030 14 486082 1 0.064 0.228 15 486091 1 0.037 0.052 16 486092 1 0.082 0.228 17 486101 1 0.000 0.003 18 486102 1 0.027 0.017 19 486111 1 0.158 0.321 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 486112 1 0.121 0.221 21 486121 1 0.069 0.202 22 486122 1 0.217 0.406 23 486131 1 0.065 -0.041 24 486132 1 0.020 -0.060 25 486141 1 0.214 0.358 26 486142 1 0.094 0.228 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.064 0.117 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.061 0.131 MEDIAN 1 0.043 0.085 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.074 0.211 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.000 -0.060 LOWER HINGE 1 0.020 0.017 UPPER HINGE 1 0.094 0.228 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.217 0.406 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 486011 1843 1977 135 1.000 0.076 0.037 3.882 0.082 0.000 2 486012 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.072 -0.466 4.839 0.073 -0.004 3 486021 1871 1977 107 1.000 0.089 -0.326 4.651 0.095 -0.002 4 486022 1806 1977 172 1.000 0.067 -0.313 3.260 0.074 0.009 5 486031 1795 1977 183 1.000 0.056 -0.399 3.617 0.063 -0.001 6 486032 1814 1977 164 1.000 0.074 -0.191 3.898 0.082 -0.071 7 486041 1822 1977 156 1.000 0.063 -0.069 2.774 0.070 0.011 8 486042 1806 1977 172 1.000 0.067 -0.295 2.647 0.073 -0.010 9 486051 1807 1977 171 1.000 0.073 -0.943 4.852 0.079 -0.030 10 486052 1792 1977 186 1.000 0.072 -0.356 3.235 0.080 -0.014 11 486071 1884 1977 94 1.000 0.061 -0.259 2.850 0.066 -0.001 12 486072 1883 1977 95 1.000 0.059 -0.213 3.172 0.064 -0.006 13 486081 1796 1977 182 1.000 0.079 -0.334 4.164 0.083 -0.002 14 486082 1801 1968 168 1.000 0.084 -0.389 3.790 0.092 -0.023 15 486091 1803 1977 175 1.000 0.064 -0.347 3.037 0.071 -0.008 16 486092 1797 1977 181 1.000 0.070 -0.398 3.484 0.078 -0.034 17 486101 1847 1977 131 1.000 0.082 -0.355 3.385 0.090 0.000 18 486102 1836 1977 142 1.000 0.080 -0.320 3.285 0.086 -0.002 19 486111 1804 1977 174 1.000 0.071 -0.424 3.692 0.081 -0.080 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 486112 1805 1977 173 1.000 0.061 -0.386 3.153 0.068 -0.062 21 486121 1796 1977 182 1.000 0.087 -0.306 4.050 0.093 -0.028 22 486122 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.090 -0.114 2.665 0.105 -0.090 23 486131 1795 1977 183 1.000 0.077 -0.723 4.284 0.082 0.010 24 486132 1837 1977 141 1.000 0.068 -0.467 3.506 0.073 0.007 25 486141 1784 1969 186 1.000 0.087 -0.683 4.529 0.100 -0.109 26 486142 1796 1973 178 1.000 0.089 -0.388 3.582 0.101 -0.047 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 159 1.000 0.074 -0.363 3.626 0.081 -0.023 STANDARD DEVIATION 27 0.000 0.010 0.198 0.645 0.012 0.034 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 171 1.000 0.072 -0.351 3.544 0.080 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 39 0.000 0.015 0.104 0.878 0.018 0.034 MINIMUM VALUE 94 1.000 0.056 -0.943 2.647 0.063 -0.109 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.067 -0.399 3.172 0.073 -0.034 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 181 1.000 0.082 -0.295 4.050 0.090 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 186 1.000 0.090 0.037 4.852 0.105 0.011 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.554 0.096 0.005 -0.422 3.270 0.211 0.783 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.211 SERIES 486032 AND 486072 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.783 SERIES 486071 AND 486072 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 74.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 136. 210. 253. 325. 325. RBAR 0.516 0.390 0.567 0.598 0.572 SDEV 0.136 0.184 0.142 0.121 0.116 SERR 0.012 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.006 EPS 0.956 0.937 0.971 0.975 0.972 NSS 20.5 23.4 25.1 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 1977 194 1.000 0.053 -0.331 3.724 0.063 -0.238 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.157 -0.047 0.092 66 128 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.48 1.01 1.06 1.53 3.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.237 0.119 0.001 0.004 0.031 -0.011 0.050 -0.077 0.156 -0.090 PACF -0.237 0.067 0.046 0.006 0.030 0.001 0.044 -0.061 0.126 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.144 0.151 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.154 0.154 0.155 0.158 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.062 -0.242 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.009 0.066 0.031 0.015 0.041 0.001 0.037 -0.031 0.129 -0.066 PACF 0.009 0.066 0.030 0.010 0.037 -0.002 0.031 -0.034 0.125 -0.070 95% C.L. 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.147 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1784 1977 194 1.000 0.052 -0.361 3.707 0.059 -0.129 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.128 0.083 0.019 0.006 0.035 -0.005 0.042 -0.056 0.145 -0.078 PACF -0.128 0.067 0.039 0.007 0.033 0.001 0.037 -0.050 0.129 -0.044 95% C.L. 0.144 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.148 0.151 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.021 -0.132 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES