RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN021E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN021E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 489 1 Pic dAnie WIDTH_EARLY PIMU - 489 2 France krummholz pine 1750 4258-44 1659 1977 - 489 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 489021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1848 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 489031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1761 1761 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 489041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1726 1728 / 1770 1771 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 489052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 489091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1749 1749 / 1859 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 489092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1856 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 0.630 0.203 0.035 2.614 0.214 0.696 2 489012 1723 1944 222 0.630 0.253 0.362 2.203 0.194 0.829 3 489021 1831 1977 147 0.858 0.278 -0.167 2.537 0.190 0.732 4 489022 1854 1977 124 0.769 0.265 0.171 2.837 0.191 0.777 5 489031 1702 1977 276 0.434 0.223 2.524 11.173 0.282 0.760 6 489041 1664 1909 246 0.515 0.275 0.784 3.057 0.247 0.783 7 489042 1659 1977 319 0.485 0.214 1.082 4.276 0.266 0.786 8 489051 1707 1938 232 0.893 0.272 0.944 4.210 0.168 0.744 9 489052 1711 1977 267 0.576 0.316 1.179 4.338 0.229 0.851 10 489061 1833 1977 145 0.736 0.224 0.796 4.413 0.185 0.647 11 489062 1749 1977 229 0.484 0.162 0.523 2.807 0.216 0.692 12 489071 1838 1977 140 0.857 0.484 1.042 3.358 0.215 0.881 13 489072 1850 1977 128 1.181 0.397 0.650 3.280 0.165 0.797 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.080 0.324 0.665 4.357 0.208 0.636 15 489082 1811 1977 167 0.908 0.389 0.927 4.055 0.256 0.716 16 489091 1697 1977 281 0.547 0.270 0.765 3.671 0.324 0.693 17 489092 1690 1977 288 0.494 0.357 1.997 6.990 0.326 0.844 18 489101 1743 1977 235 0.703 0.423 1.335 4.667 0.295 0.724 19 489102 1746 1977 232 0.749 0.297 0.880 3.699 0.237 0.677 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 0.785 0.313 0.834 3.444 0.212 0.796 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1659 TO 1977 319 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 0.716 0.297 0.866 4.099 0.231 0.753 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.206 0.081 0.614 1.968 0.048 0.069 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 0.719 0.277 0.815 3.685 0.215 0.752 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.326 0.101 0.475 1.401 0.068 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.434 0.162 -0.167 2.203 0.165 0.636 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.531 0.239 0.586 2.947 0.193 0.695 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 0.858 0.340 1.062 4.347 0.261 0.797 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 1.181 0.484 2.524 11.173 0.326 0.881 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.398 0.228 0.017 -0.580 3.139 -0.352 0.827 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.352 SERIES 489071 AND 489091 140 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.827 SERIES 489041 AND 489042 246 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.683 0.342 0.348 0.354 0.377 0.291 0.304 0.347 0.219 0.402 SDEV 0.000 0.304 0.180 0.199 0.208 0.194 0.264 0.288 0.211 0.193 SERR 0.000 0.066 0.030 0.024 0.026 0.022 0.024 0.021 0.016 0.017 EPS 0.930 0.833 0.858 0.868 0.888 0.867 0.892 0.914 0.846 0.925 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.675 0.188 0.608 3.491 0.164 0.736 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.169 0.097 0.205 101 218 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.75 1.00 1.17 1.92 11.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 230. 122. 121. 146. 268. 319. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.733 0.686 0.641 0.617 0.539 0.532 0.483 0.449 0.423 0.452 PACF 0.733 0.321 0.154 0.122 -0.054 0.076 -0.012 -0.009 0.024 0.135 95% C.L. 0.112 0.161 0.194 0.219 0.240 0.255 0.268 0.279 0.288 0.296 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.609 0.416 0.227 0.099 0.128 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 489011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00169148 0.85889906 2 489012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00297258 0.96108270 3 489021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00251329 0.64649606 4 489022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040787 0.74354053 5 489031 1 1.02323592 0.04841658 0.00000000 0.35868171 6 489041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00314281 0.90824825 7 489042 1 0.65787178 0.01393719 0.00000000 0.33939898 8 489051 1 0.80630529 0.03255437 0.00000000 0.78756809 9 489052 1 1.07966208 0.01882157 0.00000000 0.36289695 10 489061 1 0.42825556 0.06584705 0.00000000 0.69267952 11 489062 1 0.26351550 0.00339836 0.00000000 0.30160752 12 489071 1 1.64124978 0.01390111 0.00000000 0.13959278 13 489072 1 0.79459792 0.02700196 0.00000000 0.96097583 14 489081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00173547 0.97388840 15 489082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00181805 1.06091988 16 489091 1 0.71781546 0.01319172 0.00000000 0.35624152 17 489092 1 1.32822978 0.02356890 0.00000000 0.29573965 18 489101 1 1.43471479 0.02618329 0.00000000 0.47326046 19 489102 1 0.80476201 0.01072356 0.00000000 0.45393267 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 489121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00422482 1.14199746 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 0.998 0.256 0.091 3.210 0.213 0.475 2 489012 1723 1944 222 1.000 0.280 1.118 5.119 0.194 0.612 3 489021 1831 1977 147 0.998 0.331 0.025 2.395 0.189 0.759 4 489022 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.345 0.162 2.811 0.190 0.771 5 489031 1702 1977 276 1.000 0.293 0.316 3.117 0.280 0.339 6 489041 1664 1909 246 1.030 0.371 0.831 3.623 0.243 0.579 7 489042 1659 1977 319 1.000 0.286 0.109 3.122 0.265 0.433 8 489051 1707 1938 232 1.000 0.238 0.312 3.269 0.167 0.610 9 489052 1711 1977 267 1.000 0.352 0.055 2.507 0.231 0.639 10 489061 1833 1977 145 1.000 0.282 0.468 2.841 0.183 0.675 11 489062 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.322 0.518 2.939 0.215 0.680 12 489071 1838 1977 140 1.005 0.344 0.966 3.830 0.213 0.690 13 489072 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.301 0.902 3.608 0.164 0.732 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.000 0.289 0.372 3.741 0.207 0.592 15 489082 1811 1977 167 0.999 0.414 0.764 3.479 0.254 0.697 16 489091 1697 1977 281 1.000 0.394 0.194 2.985 0.318 0.470 17 489092 1690 1977 288 1.001 0.351 0.185 2.814 0.322 0.387 18 489101 1743 1977 235 1.000 0.386 0.281 3.120 0.293 0.551 19 489102 1746 1977 232 1.000 0.287 0.330 3.144 0.236 0.449 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 1.004 0.312 0.941 4.321 0.210 0.651 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 1.002 0.322 0.447 3.300 0.229 0.590 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.007 0.047 0.347 0.630 0.047 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 1.000 0.317 0.323 3.133 0.214 0.611 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.001 0.065 0.624 0.725 0.067 0.212 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.998 0.238 0.025 2.395 0.164 0.339 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.287 0.173 2.890 0.192 0.473 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 1.000 0.351 0.798 3.615 0.259 0.685 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 1.030 0.414 1.118 5.119 0.322 0.771 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 489011 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 489012 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 489021 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 489022 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 489031 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 489041 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 489042 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 489051 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 489052 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 489061 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 489062 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 489071 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 489072 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 489081 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 489082 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 489091 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 489092 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 489101 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 489102 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 489121 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 0.999 0.248 0.114 3.333 0.213 0.436 2 489012 1723 1944 222 0.997 0.268 1.196 5.661 0.194 0.582 3 489021 1831 1977 147 0.996 0.290 0.223 2.812 0.188 0.667 4 489022 1854 1977 124 0.992 0.311 0.099 2.527 0.190 0.730 5 489031 1702 1977 276 0.998 0.282 0.234 2.993 0.280 0.296 6 489041 1664 1909 246 0.995 0.294 0.420 2.820 0.243 0.435 7 489042 1659 1977 319 0.999 0.277 0.097 3.167 0.265 0.378 8 489051 1707 1938 232 0.999 0.211 0.198 2.960 0.167 0.515 9 489052 1711 1977 267 0.994 0.337 0.460 3.515 0.231 0.622 10 489061 1833 1977 145 0.997 0.250 0.288 2.739 0.183 0.594 11 489062 1749 1977 229 0.996 0.304 0.398 2.908 0.215 0.642 12 489071 1838 1977 140 0.994 0.302 0.802 3.499 0.213 0.604 13 489072 1850 1977 128 0.994 0.226 0.551 3.040 0.164 0.559 14 489081 1857 1977 121 0.996 0.265 0.431 4.348 0.206 0.534 15 489082 1811 1977 167 0.988 0.330 0.190 2.767 0.254 0.550 16 489091 1697 1977 281 0.994 0.368 0.067 2.861 0.318 0.435 17 489092 1690 1977 288 0.998 0.340 0.195 2.967 0.322 0.346 18 489101 1743 1977 235 0.995 0.371 0.215 3.005 0.293 0.521 19 489102 1746 1977 232 0.998 0.275 0.336 3.257 0.236 0.399 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 0.994 0.255 0.363 2.867 0.210 0.480 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 0.996 0.290 0.344 3.202 0.229 0.516 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.003 0.044 0.269 0.698 0.047 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 0.996 0.286 0.261 2.980 0.214 0.527 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.003 0.061 0.234 0.455 0.068 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.988 0.211 0.067 2.527 0.164 0.296 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.994 0.260 0.192 2.840 0.192 0.435 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 0.998 0.321 0.426 3.295 0.260 0.599 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 0.999 0.371 1.196 5.661 0.322 0.730 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.342 0.140 0.010 -0.550 4.091 -0.166 0.737 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.166 SERIES 489012 AND 489091 222 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.737 SERIES 489021 AND 489022 124 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.737 0.283 0.406 0.361 0.316 0.284 0.346 0.324 0.280 0.393 SDEV 0.000 0.244 0.154 0.195 0.192 0.203 0.246 0.230 0.194 0.196 SERR 0.000 0.053 0.026 0.024 0.024 0.023 0.022 0.017 0.015 0.017 EPS 0.945 0.791 0.886 0.871 0.858 0.863 0.909 0.905 0.884 0.922 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.985 0.181 0.260 3.201 0.160 0.439 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.139 0.063 0.149 103 216 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.40 1.00 1.10 1.49 117.36 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.437 0.377 0.322 0.242 0.089 0.121 0.026 -0.054 -0.055 -0.033 PACF 0.437 0.230 0.123 0.024 -0.130 0.045 -0.061 -0.091 -0.013 0.030 95% C.L. 0.112 0.132 0.145 0.153 0.158 0.159 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.160 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.246 0.308 0.189 0.123 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.461 0.373 0.359 0.260 0.113 0.125 0.062 -0.041 -0.023 -0.028 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.461 2 0.367 0.203 3 0.333 0.141 0.171 4 0.330 0.139 0.166 0.013 5 0.332 0.159 0.183 0.054 -0.124 6 0.335 0.158 0.179 0.050 -0.132 0.024 7 0.336 0.154 0.181 0.056 -0.126 0.036 -0.034 8 0.333 0.157 0.169 0.062 -0.109 0.050 -0.003 -0.094 9 0.333 0.157 0.168 0.063 -0.110 0.049 -0.004 -0.097 0.010 10 0.333 0.157 0.168 0.063 -0.110 0.049 -0.005 -0.097 0.010 0.001 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2457.57 2383.41 2371.94 2364.53 2366.47 2363.55 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2365.36 2366.98 2366.15 2368.12 2370.12 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.333 0.141 0.171 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 26.69 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 136.41 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.333 0.251 0.301 0.192 0.149 0.128 0.096 0.075 0.060 0.0471 0.037 0.029 0.023 0.018 0.014 0.011 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.0043 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 489011 3 0.321 0.227 0.340 0.128 2 489012 3 0.488 0.256 0.423 0.124 3 489021 3 0.459 0.567 0.137 0.020 4 489022 3 0.581 0.691 -0.135 0.257 5 489031 3 0.111 0.256 0.117 0.034 6 489041 3 0.241 0.332 0.219 0.032 7 489042 3 0.221 0.260 0.283 0.031 8 489051 3 0.280 0.469 0.089 0.004 9 489052 3 0.460 0.388 0.209 0.185 10 489061 3 0.399 0.478 0.222 -0.013 11 489062 3 0.453 0.488 0.107 0.163 12 489071 3 0.373 0.572 -0.004 0.088 13 489072 3 0.325 0.532 -0.024 0.122 14 489081 3 0.356 0.416 0.268 -0.051 15 489082 3 0.331 0.439 0.186 0.022 16 489091 3 0.238 0.372 0.023 0.198 17 489092 3 0.153 0.290 0.075 0.138 18 489101 3 0.305 0.403 0.162 0.080 19 489102 3 0.168 0.366 0.059 0.051 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 489121 3 0.241 0.450 0.019 0.084 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.325 0.413 0.139 0.085 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.123 0.123 0.135 0.079 MEDIAN 3 0.323 0.410 0.127 0.082 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.186 0.173 0.180 0.106 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.111 0.227 -0.135 -0.051 LOWER HINGE 3 0.239 0.311 0.041 0.027 UPPER HINGE 3 0.426 0.483 0.221 0.133 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.581 0.691 0.423 0.257 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 1.000 0.204 -0.116 3.400 0.230 -0.010 2 489012 1723 1944 222 1.000 0.192 0.331 3.594 0.212 0.004 3 489021 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.214 0.519 3.699 0.233 0.000 4 489022 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.202 0.188 2.886 0.229 0.025 5 489031 1702 1977 276 1.000 0.267 0.202 2.988 0.314 -0.004 6 489041 1664 1909 246 1.000 0.257 0.267 3.168 0.284 -0.001 7 489042 1659 1977 319 1.000 0.245 -0.133 3.119 0.288 0.000 8 489051 1707 1938 232 1.000 0.180 0.278 3.150 0.202 0.000 9 489052 1711 1977 267 1.000 0.247 -0.020 3.765 0.278 0.005 10 489061 1833 1977 145 1.000 0.193 -0.023 2.732 0.217 -0.009 11 489062 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.226 -0.212 3.661 0.260 0.011 12 489071 1838 1977 140 1.000 0.240 0.487 4.276 0.263 0.005 13 489072 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.186 0.523 3.823 0.204 0.000 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.000 0.216 0.562 3.981 0.243 -0.010 15 489082 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.270 0.282 3.188 0.298 0.001 16 489091 1697 1977 281 1.001 0.321 0.005 3.085 0.364 -0.012 17 489092 1690 1977 288 1.000 0.314 0.043 3.021 0.367 -0.010 18 489101 1743 1977 235 1.001 0.307 0.299 3.714 0.336 0.006 19 489102 1746 1977 232 1.000 0.251 0.540 3.865 0.276 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 1.000 0.222 0.142 2.482 0.251 0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 1.000 0.238 0.208 3.380 0.267 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.042 0.243 0.466 0.050 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 1.000 0.233 0.234 3.294 0.261 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.000 0.059 0.416 0.687 0.063 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 121 1.000 0.180 -0.212 2.482 0.202 -0.012 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.203 -0.007 3.053 0.229 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 1.000 0.262 0.409 3.740 0.293 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 1.001 0.321 0.562 4.276 0.367 0.025 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.354 0.102 0.007 -0.056 3.533 0.068 0.674 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.068 SERIES 489081 AND 489091 121 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.674 SERIES 489021 AND 489022 124 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.515 0.272 0.435 0.384 0.371 0.394 0.359 0.367 0.338 0.381 SDEV 0.000 0.187 0.146 0.140 0.162 0.186 0.139 0.141 0.150 0.134 SERR 0.000 0.041 0.024 0.017 0.020 0.021 0.013 0.010 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.867 0.781 0.897 0.882 0.886 0.912 0.913 0.921 0.909 0.918 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.995 0.153 0.093 3.061 0.179 -0.035 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.072 0.035 0.142 93 226 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.73 1.00 1.10 1.83 34.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.035 0.032 0.036 0.045 -0.114 0.076 -0.026 -0.084 -0.057 0.004 PACF -0.035 0.031 0.038 0.047 -0.114 0.066 -0.018 -0.085 -0.057 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 0.003 0.003 0.041 -0.109 0.074 -0.022 -0.084 -0.061 0.009 PACF -0.002 0.003 0.003 0.041 -0.109 0.075 -0.023 -0.087 -0.052 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.002 -0.002 0.003 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.995 0.176 0.192 2.966 0.152 0.441 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.440 0.340 0.331 0.221 0.074 0.124 0.029 -0.055 -0.056 -0.044 PACF 0.440 0.182 0.165 -0.003 -0.125 0.066 -0.068 -0.078 -0.030 0.010 95% C.L. 0.112 0.132 0.142 0.152 0.156 0.156 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.158 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.242 0.330 0.122 0.165 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES