RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN021L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN021L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 489 1 Pic dAnie WIDTH_LATE PIMU - 489 2 France krummholz pine 1750 4258-44 1659 1977 - 489 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 489021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1848 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 489031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 3 GAPS / 1752 1756 / 1761 1761 / 1769 1773 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 489041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1726 1728 / 1770 1771 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 489052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 489091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1749 1749 / 1859 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 489092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1856 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 489101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1921 1926 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 0.206 0.107 0.930 4.614 0.461 0.443 2 489012 1723 1944 222 0.193 0.141 1.056 4.180 0.506 0.657 3 489021 1831 1977 147 0.294 0.186 1.013 3.930 0.485 0.647 4 489022 1854 1977 124 0.173 0.104 0.773 3.098 0.576 0.483 5 489031 1702 1977 276 0.087 0.102 3.468 17.893 0.679 0.719 6 489041 1664 1909 246 0.149 0.158 4.690 34.888 0.473 0.780 7 489042 1659 1977 319 0.120 0.086 1.890 6.664 0.338 0.734 8 489051 1707 1938 232 0.208 0.147 1.362 5.002 0.524 0.611 9 489052 1711 1977 267 0.124 0.092 2.088 9.903 0.437 0.682 10 489061 1833 1977 145 0.109 0.089 2.006 8.598 0.565 0.560 11 489062 1749 1977 229 0.079 0.049 1.057 4.886 0.578 0.402 12 489071 1838 1977 140 0.307 0.235 1.864 6.998 0.490 0.604 13 489072 1850 1977 128 0.423 0.247 1.074 4.100 0.426 0.514 14 489081 1857 1977 121 0.231 0.159 1.054 4.732 0.627 0.437 15 489082 1811 1977 167 0.139 0.108 2.000 8.998 0.699 0.373 16 489091 1697 1977 281 0.225 0.157 1.076 4.119 0.564 0.555 17 489092 1690 1977 288 0.135 0.109 2.141 7.639 0.436 0.714 18 489101 1743 1977 235 0.239 0.189 1.475 5.801 0.487 0.681 19 489102 1746 1977 232 0.228 0.152 1.558 5.493 0.472 0.510 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 0.224 0.147 1.625 6.488 0.575 0.290 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1659 TO 1977 319 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.195 0.138 1.710 7.901 0.520 0.570 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.084 0.050 0.940 7.139 0.089 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 229 0.199 0.144 1.516 5.647 0.498 0.582 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 123 0.100 0.056 0.947 3.722 0.109 0.219 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.079 0.049 0.773 3.098 0.338 0.290 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.129 0.103 1.056 4.397 0.467 0.463 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 265 0.229 0.158 2.003 8.119 0.575 0.681 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 0.423 0.247 4.690 34.888 0.699 0.780 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.324 0.167 0.012 -0.234 2.816 -0.227 0.690 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.227 SERIES 489071 AND 489091 140 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.690 SERIES 489031 AND 489092 276 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.408 0.510 0.401 0.370 0.309 0.302 0.287 0.300 0.212 0.305 SDEV 0.000 0.201 0.125 0.157 0.214 0.195 0.203 0.253 0.194 0.189 SERR 0.000 0.044 0.021 0.019 0.026 0.022 0.019 0.018 0.015 0.016 EPS 0.809 0.909 0.884 0.876 0.854 0.873 0.884 0.896 0.840 0.889 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.183 0.104 2.308 12.034 0.357 0.671 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.606 0.461 0.027 155 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.75 1.89 1.00 1.18 3.06 128.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.16 0.00 0.84 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 230. 122. 121. 146. 268. 319. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.669 0.571 0.554 0.514 0.432 0.388 0.368 0.326 0.322 0.239 PACF 0.669 0.223 0.205 0.095 -0.030 0.004 0.031 -0.006 0.068 -0.108 95% C.L. 0.112 0.154 0.179 0.199 0.215 0.226 0.234 0.241 0.247 0.252 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.521 0.435 0.110 0.191 0.093 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 489011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037838 0.25704834 2 489012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00118376 0.32482696 3 489021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00086262 0.34698257 4 489022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021400 0.16001180 5 489031 1 0.72634923 0.11526216 0.00000000 0.06357240 6 489041 1 0.76215720 0.06604978 0.00000000 0.10490471 7 489042 1 0.28155893 0.01950675 0.00000000 0.07528360 8 489051 1 0.37352040 0.07351565 0.00000000 0.18704186 9 489052 1 0.21797392 0.02346812 0.00000000 0.08890595 10 489061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00061164 0.06459195 11 489062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00020202 0.10214089 12 489071 1 0.55468166 0.01950531 0.00000000 0.11875232 13 489072 1 0.41364112 0.01852833 0.00000000 0.26598197 14 489081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00103983 0.16714875 15 489082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037175 0.17050862 16 489091 1 0.18240057 0.02150700 0.00000000 0.19382882 17 489092 1 0.28635889 0.01979003 0.00000000 0.08333198 18 489101 1 0.54532063 0.00866916 0.00000000 0.00280022 19 489102 1 0.35863140 0.00745481 0.00000000 0.05838797 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 489121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00131750 0.33507913 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 0.998 0.501 0.875 4.466 0.460 0.412 2 489012 1723 1944 222 0.998 0.655 1.340 5.732 0.504 0.551 3 489021 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.615 0.734 3.166 0.494 0.626 4 489022 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.595 0.759 3.189 0.571 0.476 5 489031 1702 1977 276 0.997 0.700 0.559 2.735 0.745 0.305 6 489041 1664 1909 246 0.998 0.563 0.590 3.672 0.463 0.557 7 489042 1659 1977 319 0.999 0.481 2.351 13.977 0.337 0.431 8 489051 1707 1938 232 0.999 0.670 1.319 5.107 0.522 0.576 9 489052 1711 1977 267 1.001 0.599 0.916 3.463 0.435 0.583 10 489061 1833 1977 145 1.019 0.837 1.903 7.351 0.562 0.417 11 489062 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.621 1.451 7.393 0.576 0.354 12 489071 1838 1977 140 1.003 0.598 1.441 5.340 0.489 0.428 13 489072 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.555 1.104 3.894 0.422 0.456 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.004 0.705 1.226 5.159 0.622 0.384 15 489082 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.716 1.444 6.127 0.695 0.359 16 489091 1697 1977 281 1.000 0.657 1.104 4.960 0.559 0.569 17 489092 1690 1977 288 1.002 0.519 0.677 3.973 0.439 0.485 18 489101 1743 1977 235 1.015 0.615 1.284 4.964 0.480 0.446 19 489102 1746 1977 232 1.000 0.524 1.176 4.804 0.470 0.311 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 1.002 0.578 1.501 7.065 0.572 0.150 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 1.002 0.615 1.188 5.327 0.521 0.444 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.006 0.085 0.447 2.454 0.096 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 1.000 0.607 1.201 4.962 0.499 0.438 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.003 0.105 0.625 2.146 0.110 0.182 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.997 0.481 0.559 2.735 0.337 0.150 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.999 0.559 0.817 3.783 0.462 0.372 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 1.002 0.664 1.443 5.930 0.571 0.554 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 1.019 0.837 2.351 13.977 0.745 0.626 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 489011 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 489012 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 489021 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 489022 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 489031 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 489041 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 489042 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 489051 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 489052 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 489061 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 489062 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 489071 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 489072 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 489081 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 489082 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 489091 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 489092 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 489101 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 489102 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 489121 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 0.998 0.491 0.835 4.128 0.460 0.390 2 489012 1723 1944 222 0.992 0.633 1.406 6.318 0.504 0.536 3 489021 1831 1977 147 0.990 0.571 0.510 2.690 0.493 0.590 4 489022 1854 1977 124 0.991 0.557 0.646 3.499 0.571 0.344 5 489031 1702 1977 276 0.998 0.690 0.499 2.554 0.746 0.248 6 489041 1664 1909 246 0.995 0.541 0.365 3.075 0.464 0.522 7 489042 1659 1977 319 0.997 0.449 2.219 12.529 0.337 0.376 8 489051 1707 1938 232 0.995 0.653 1.250 4.860 0.522 0.565 9 489052 1711 1977 267 0.992 0.567 1.022 4.332 0.436 0.551 10 489061 1833 1977 145 0.994 0.665 1.493 6.029 0.562 0.401 11 489062 1749 1977 229 0.994 0.607 1.412 7.381 0.576 0.334 12 489071 1838 1977 140 0.994 0.576 1.448 5.686 0.489 0.397 13 489072 1850 1977 128 0.982 0.460 1.083 4.616 0.423 0.234 14 489081 1857 1977 121 0.992 0.704 1.702 7.886 0.622 0.344 15 489082 1811 1977 167 0.985 0.691 1.955 10.295 0.696 0.295 16 489091 1697 1977 281 0.992 0.635 1.055 4.787 0.559 0.548 17 489092 1690 1977 288 0.997 0.507 0.845 5.198 0.439 0.450 18 489101 1743 1977 235 0.994 0.582 1.421 6.454 0.480 0.392 19 489102 1746 1977 232 0.998 0.517 1.204 5.071 0.470 0.299 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 0.997 0.547 1.092 5.069 0.572 0.111 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 0.993 0.582 1.173 5.623 0.521 0.396 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.004 0.076 0.483 2.461 0.096 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 0.994 0.574 1.148 5.070 0.499 0.391 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.005 0.115 0.594 2.156 0.110 0.213 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.982 0.449 0.365 2.554 0.337 0.111 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.992 0.529 0.840 4.230 0.462 0.316 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 0.997 0.644 1.434 6.386 0.571 0.529 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 0.998 0.704 2.219 12.529 0.746 0.590 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.313 0.130 0.009 0.047 3.026 -0.042 0.699 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.042 SERIES 489071 AND 489091 140 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.699 SERIES 489021 AND 489022 124 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.453 0.489 0.449 0.367 0.315 0.309 0.300 0.280 0.244 0.310 SDEV 0.000 0.180 0.113 0.152 0.208 0.192 0.198 0.222 0.198 0.183 SERR 0.000 0.039 0.019 0.019 0.026 0.022 0.018 0.016 0.015 0.016 EPS 0.836 0.902 0.902 0.874 0.858 0.877 0.890 0.886 0.863 0.891 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.963 0.343 0.556 3.619 0.338 0.333 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.522 0.268 0.140 95 224 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.47 1.15 1.00 1.14 2.29 13.44 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.332 0.247 0.279 0.122 0.062 0.072 0.002 -0.018 -0.016 -0.101 PACF 0.332 0.153 0.183 -0.041 -0.040 0.010 -0.037 -0.021 -0.013 -0.092 95% C.L. 0.112 0.124 0.130 0.137 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.139 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.163 0.254 0.101 0.185 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.321 0.211 0.324 0.141 0.063 0.053 -0.060 -0.062 -0.071 -0.128 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.321 2 0.283 0.120 3 0.252 0.048 0.255 4 0.262 0.049 0.265 -0.040 5 0.261 0.060 0.267 -0.029 -0.041 6 0.259 0.059 0.280 -0.026 -0.028 -0.048 7 0.254 0.056 0.277 0.003 -0.022 -0.020 -0.106 8 0.251 0.055 0.277 0.004 -0.015 -0.019 -0.100 -0.027 9 0.250 0.052 0.276 0.003 -0.014 -0.009 -0.098 -0.018 -0.036 10 0.248 0.051 0.271 0.003 -0.015 -0.009 -0.083 -0.015 -0.023 -0.052 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2869.60 2836.90 2834.29 2814.77 2816.26 2817.74 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2819.01 2817.39 2819.16 2820.75 2821.89 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.252 0.048 0.255 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 17.36 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 121.01 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.252 0.111 0.295 0.144 0.079 0.102 0.066 0.042 0.040 0.0289 0.020 0.017 0.012 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.0018 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 489011 3 0.226 0.265 0.156 0.193 2 489012 3 0.341 0.377 0.215 0.095 3 489021 3 0.398 0.509 -0.036 0.249 4 489022 3 0.194 0.232 0.147 0.209 5 489031 3 0.080 0.240 0.003 0.088 6 489041 3 0.289 0.459 0.096 0.044 7 489042 3 0.166 0.308 0.157 0.031 8 489051 3 0.356 0.427 0.203 0.050 9 489052 3 0.329 0.461 0.109 0.075 10 489061 3 0.237 0.345 0.031 0.189 11 489062 3 0.140 0.282 0.075 0.130 12 489071 3 0.194 0.364 0.081 0.011 13 489072 3 0.091 0.190 0.114 0.106 14 489081 3 0.131 0.305 0.084 0.051 15 489082 3 0.130 0.271 -0.006 0.206 16 489091 3 0.320 0.500 0.065 0.047 17 489092 3 0.226 0.377 0.109 0.083 18 489101 3 0.182 0.348 0.022 0.161 19 489102 3 0.128 0.266 0.028 0.160 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 489121 3 0.036 0.089 0.088 0.113 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.210 0.331 0.087 0.115 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.102 0.108 0.068 0.069 MEDIAN 3 0.194 0.327 0.086 0.101 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.174 0.137 0.101 0.125 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.036 0.089 -0.036 0.011 LOWER HINGE 3 0.131 0.265 0.030 0.050 UPPER HINGE 3 0.304 0.402 0.131 0.175 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.398 0.509 0.215 0.249 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 1.000 0.433 0.861 4.595 0.495 0.014 2 489012 1723 1944 222 1.002 0.510 1.114 5.196 0.552 -0.002 3 489021 1831 1977 147 1.001 0.443 0.241 2.542 0.523 0.020 4 489022 1854 1977 124 1.002 0.497 0.644 3.999 0.572 0.016 5 489031 1702 1977 276 1.004 0.659 0.477 2.531 0.769 0.023 6 489041 1664 1909 246 1.000 0.456 0.617 3.925 0.546 0.006 7 489042 1659 1977 319 1.000 0.410 2.019 11.488 0.393 -0.001 8 489051 1707 1938 232 1.003 0.518 0.808 3.677 0.596 0.003 9 489052 1711 1977 267 1.000 0.466 0.995 4.626 0.498 -0.008 10 489061 1833 1977 145 1.005 0.584 1.472 6.492 0.591 0.054 11 489062 1749 1977 229 1.001 0.562 1.313 6.994 0.632 -0.006 12 489071 1838 1977 140 1.002 0.521 1.087 4.846 0.569 0.013 13 489072 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.440 1.170 5.361 0.442 0.012 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.003 0.651 1.965 9.491 0.687 0.007 15 489082 1811 1977 167 1.002 0.640 1.835 10.898 0.754 0.016 16 489091 1697 1977 281 1.002 0.521 0.613 3.885 0.626 0.009 17 489092 1690 1977 288 1.000 0.444 1.011 5.599 0.477 -0.006 18 489101 1743 1977 235 1.001 0.525 1.486 7.356 0.544 -0.006 19 489102 1746 1977 232 1.000 0.486 1.225 5.517 0.510 0.017 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 1.002 0.533 1.028 4.892 0.570 0.020 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 1.001 0.515 1.099 5.696 0.567 0.010 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.001 0.074 0.484 2.487 0.094 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 1.001 0.514 1.058 5.044 0.561 0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.002 0.097 0.667 2.781 0.106 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 121 1.000 0.410 0.241 2.531 0.393 -0.008 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.450 0.726 3.962 0.504 -0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 1.002 0.547 1.393 6.743 0.611 0.017 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 1.005 0.659 2.019 11.488 0.769 0.054 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.333 0.112 0.008 0.356 3.558 0.059 0.684 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.059 SERIES 489081 AND 489091 121 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.684 SERIES 489011 AND 489012 222 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.396 0.464 0.433 0.383 0.358 0.349 0.309 0.293 0.261 0.318 SDEV 0.000 0.127 0.110 0.130 0.161 0.155 0.137 0.159 0.175 0.169 SERR 0.000 0.028 0.018 0.016 0.020 0.018 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.801 0.892 0.897 0.882 0.880 0.895 0.894 0.892 0.873 0.895 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.978 0.310 0.488 3.722 0.370 -0.072 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.448 0.235 0.116 103 216 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.92 1.00 1.07 1.98 14.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.072 -0.007 0.091 -0.020 -0.049 0.003 -0.021 -0.027 0.013 -0.071 PACF -0.072 -0.012 0.090 -0.007 -0.051 -0.012 -0.020 -0.021 0.009 -0.070 95% C.L. 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.004 0.000 -0.009 -0.048 -0.011 -0.015 -0.022 0.009 -0.069 PACF 0.001 0.004 0.000 -0.009 -0.048 -0.011 -0.015 -0.023 0.008 -0.072 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.979 0.335 0.603 3.805 0.326 0.300 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.299 0.183 0.295 0.126 0.033 0.061 0.011 -0.021 -0.012 -0.079 PACF 0.299 0.102 0.239 -0.029 -0.054 -0.010 -0.025 -0.013 -0.009 -0.077 95% C.L. 0.112 0.122 0.125 0.133 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.135 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.153 0.244 0.037 0.242 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES