RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN021N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN021N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 489 1 Pic dAnie DENSITY_MINIMUM PIMU - 489 2 France krummholz pine 1750 4258-44 1659 1977 - 489 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 489021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1848 1855 / 1913 1918 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 489031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1761 1761 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 489041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1726 1728 / 1770 1771 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 489051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1751 1755 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 489052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 489091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1749 1749 / 1859 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 489092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1856 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 489101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1761 1761 / 1766 1766 / 1770 1770 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 0.341 0.027 0.430 3.626 0.063 0.472 2 489012 1723 1944 222 0.344 0.024 0.668 3.556 0.066 0.249 3 489021 1831 1977 147 0.331 0.040 1.167 4.106 0.068 0.727 4 489022 1854 1977 124 0.308 0.019 0.328 3.017 0.051 0.457 5 489031 1702 1977 276 0.318 0.025 0.683 3.500 0.060 0.400 6 489041 1664 1909 246 0.373 0.030 1.008 4.920 0.066 0.411 7 489042 1659 1977 319 0.391 0.038 0.946 4.966 0.058 0.676 8 489051 1707 1938 232 0.335 0.025 1.295 9.121 0.058 0.348 9 489052 1711 1977 267 0.349 0.021 0.500 3.470 0.053 0.281 10 489061 1833 1977 145 0.330 0.027 0.756 4.267 0.067 0.407 11 489062 1749 1977 229 0.350 0.028 0.414 3.528 0.052 0.588 12 489071 1838 1977 140 0.357 0.021 0.225 2.848 0.056 0.306 13 489072 1850 1977 128 0.336 0.024 0.471 3.348 0.062 0.329 14 489081 1857 1977 121 0.339 0.029 0.493 3.296 0.083 0.168 15 489082 1811 1977 167 0.334 0.039 1.504 6.094 0.064 0.712 16 489091 1697 1977 281 0.386 0.034 1.471 7.512 0.081 0.199 17 489092 1690 1977 288 0.350 0.024 1.394 7.941 0.059 0.234 18 489101 1743 1977 235 0.332 0.039 1.120 5.133 0.066 0.634 19 489102 1746 1977 232 0.316 0.029 1.488 8.978 0.073 0.366 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 0.351 0.021 0.103 3.192 0.059 0.215 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1659 TO 1977 319 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 210 0.343 0.028 0.823 4.821 0.063 0.409 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.021 0.007 0.456 2.025 0.009 0.176 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 0.340 0.027 0.719 3.866 0.063 0.383 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.019 0.008 0.780 2.205 0.008 0.265 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.308 0.019 0.103 2.848 0.051 0.168 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.331 0.024 0.451 3.409 0.058 0.265 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 0.351 0.032 1.231 5.614 0.066 0.530 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 0.391 0.040 1.504 9.121 0.083 0.727 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.146 0.165 0.012 -0.148 3.274 -0.358 0.654 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.358 SERIES 489042 AND 489061 145 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.654 SERIES 489021 AND 489082 147 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.213 0.169 0.160 0.132 0.163 0.223 0.147 0.180 0.164 0.146 SDEV 0.000 0.106 0.206 0.197 0.173 0.171 0.212 0.167 0.172 0.184 SERR 0.000 0.023 0.034 0.024 0.021 0.019 0.019 0.012 0.013 0.016 EPS 0.624 0.661 0.684 0.645 0.718 0.820 0.765 0.815 0.793 0.758 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.351 0.023 1.465 5.625 0.036 0.741 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.131 -0.063 0.053 86 233 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.43 0.94 1.00 1.17 2.11 4.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 230. 122. 121. 146. 268. 319. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.739 0.722 0.713 0.718 0.670 0.644 0.607 0.601 0.581 0.551 PACF 0.739 0.387 0.258 0.225 0.041 0.006 -0.048 0.015 0.021 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.112 0.162 0.198 0.228 0.255 0.276 0.294 0.310 0.324 0.337 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.694 0.225 0.187 0.179 0.244 0.095 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 489011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012288 0.32390499 2 489012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009745 0.35437936 3 489021 1 0.11184124 0.02967727 0.00000000 0.30743554 4 489022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010587 0.31435877 5 489031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009958 0.33146361 6 489041 1 0.11340573 0.10620136 0.00000000 0.36844003 7 489042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00008493 0.40412137 8 489051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001635 0.33270463 9 489052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003362 0.35391191 10 489061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027019 0.31068966 11 489062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009974 0.36168811 12 489071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000730 0.35619938 13 489072 1 0.02259769 0.02218204 0.00000000 0.32868299 14 489081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013054 0.34672314 15 489082 1 0.10763924 0.01340871 0.00000000 0.29159307 16 489091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002867 0.38230437 17 489092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002429 0.34598500 18 489101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033890 0.37199816 19 489102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013061 0.33129311 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 489121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007246 0.35719419 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 1.000 0.073 0.406 3.573 0.063 0.391 2 489012 1723 1944 222 1.000 0.068 0.516 3.285 0.066 0.191 3 489021 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.080 0.365 2.905 0.069 0.378 4 489022 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.060 0.344 2.901 0.051 0.437 5 489031 1702 1977 276 1.000 0.074 0.823 4.812 0.060 0.322 6 489041 1664 1909 246 1.000 0.070 0.712 4.402 0.065 0.226 7 489042 1659 1977 319 1.000 0.096 1.194 5.170 0.058 0.665 8 489051 1707 1938 232 1.000 0.074 1.248 8.938 0.057 0.346 9 489052 1711 1977 267 1.000 0.059 0.484 3.383 0.053 0.263 10 489061 1833 1977 145 1.000 0.075 0.518 3.444 0.066 0.304 11 489062 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.077 0.406 2.987 0.052 0.567 12 489071 1838 1977 140 1.000 0.060 0.238 2.873 0.056 0.304 13 489072 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.068 0.530 3.593 0.061 0.288 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.000 0.084 0.548 3.463 0.083 0.152 15 489082 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.080 0.952 4.658 0.064 0.402 16 489091 1697 1977 281 1.000 0.088 1.385 7.213 0.080 0.201 17 489092 1690 1977 288 1.000 0.068 1.409 7.950 0.059 0.233 18 489101 1743 1977 235 1.000 0.089 0.877 5.324 0.067 0.425 19 489102 1746 1977 232 1.000 0.086 1.344 7.744 0.073 0.293 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 1.000 0.058 0.122 3.287 0.058 0.189 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 1.000 0.074 0.721 4.595 0.063 0.329 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.011 0.408 1.901 0.009 0.129 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 1.000 0.074 0.539 3.583 0.062 0.304 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.000 0.014 0.667 1.961 0.009 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 121 1.000 0.058 0.122 2.873 0.051 0.152 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.068 0.406 3.286 0.058 0.230 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 1.000 0.082 1.073 5.247 0.067 0.396 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 1.000 0.096 1.409 8.938 0.083 0.665 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 489011 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 489012 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 489021 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 489022 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 489031 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 489041 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 489042 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 489051 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 489052 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 489061 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 489062 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 489071 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 489072 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 489081 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 489082 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 489091 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 489092 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 489101 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 489102 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 489121 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 1.000 0.072 0.297 3.572 0.063 0.373 2 489012 1723 1944 222 1.000 0.064 0.571 3.713 0.066 0.091 3 489021 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.076 0.464 2.943 0.069 0.322 4 489022 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.050 0.441 2.823 0.051 0.209 5 489031 1702 1977 276 1.000 0.072 0.874 5.113 0.060 0.295 6 489041 1664 1909 246 1.000 0.066 0.569 4.007 0.065 0.144 7 489042 1659 1977 319 1.000 0.078 1.071 5.042 0.058 0.517 8 489051 1707 1938 232 1.000 0.070 1.281 9.057 0.057 0.288 9 489052 1711 1977 267 1.000 0.053 0.376 3.105 0.053 0.101 10 489061 1833 1977 145 1.000 0.066 0.498 4.006 0.066 0.094 11 489062 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.063 0.459 3.403 0.052 0.353 12 489071 1838 1977 140 1.000 0.057 0.156 2.853 0.056 0.231 13 489072 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.066 0.492 3.288 0.061 0.240 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.000 0.082 0.572 3.523 0.083 0.126 15 489082 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.077 0.892 4.692 0.064 0.362 16 489091 1697 1977 281 1.000 0.084 1.305 7.005 0.080 0.131 17 489092 1690 1977 288 1.000 0.066 1.385 7.922 0.059 0.191 18 489101 1743 1977 235 1.000 0.083 0.994 5.454 0.067 0.338 19 489102 1746 1977 232 1.000 0.082 1.548 9.314 0.073 0.237 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 1.000 0.056 0.041 3.257 0.058 0.119 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 1.000 0.069 0.714 4.705 0.063 0.238 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.010 0.429 2.049 0.009 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 1.000 0.068 0.570 3.859 0.062 0.234 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.000 0.014 0.582 2.011 0.009 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 121 1.000 0.050 0.041 2.823 0.051 0.091 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.063 0.450 3.272 0.058 0.129 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 1.000 0.077 1.032 5.283 0.067 0.330 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 1.000 0.084 1.548 9.314 0.083 0.517 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.159 0.114 0.008 0.086 3.024 -0.150 0.457 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.150 SERIES 489072 AND 489092 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.457 SERIES 489081 AND 489121 121 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.169 0.161 0.171 0.144 0.164 0.226 0.154 0.190 0.168 0.149 SDEV 0.000 0.099 0.208 0.186 0.171 0.173 0.175 0.167 0.164 0.177 SERR 0.000 0.022 0.035 0.023 0.021 0.020 0.016 0.012 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.555 0.646 0.701 0.669 0.719 0.823 0.774 0.824 0.798 0.761 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.997 0.033 -0.056 3.066 0.036 0.047 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.218 0.143 -0.085 113 206 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.74 1.01 1.09 1.83 42.77 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.047 0.045 0.055 0.064 0.016 0.004 -0.003 -0.063 0.004 0.042 PACF 0.047 0.043 0.051 0.058 0.007 -0.005 -0.010 -0.068 0.009 0.048 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.028 -0.007 0.049 0.032 0.053 -0.016 -0.017 -0.073 0.000 0.006 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.028 2 -0.028 -0.008 3 -0.028 -0.007 0.048 4 -0.030 -0.007 0.049 0.035 5 -0.032 -0.009 0.050 0.037 0.056 6 -0.031 -0.009 0.050 0.037 0.056 -0.015 7 -0.031 -0.008 0.051 0.038 0.056 -0.015 -0.020 8 -0.033 -0.009 0.056 0.041 0.060 -0.016 -0.023 -0.082 9 -0.033 -0.009 0.055 0.041 0.060 -0.016 -0.023 -0.082 -0.008 10 -0.033 -0.009 0.056 0.041 0.060 -0.016 -0.023 -0.082 -0.007 0.005 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1342.60 1344.34 1346.32 1347.58 1349.19 1350.17 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1352.10 1353.97 1353.83 1355.81 1357.80 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 489011 0 0.143 2 489012 0 0.008 3 489021 0 0.104 4 489022 0 0.044 5 489031 0 0.087 6 489041 0 0.022 7 489042 0 0.271 8 489051 0 0.083 9 489052 0 0.010 10 489061 0 0.009 11 489062 0 0.126 12 489071 0 0.054 13 489072 0 0.059 14 489081 0 0.016 15 489082 0 0.134 16 489091 0 0.017 17 489092 0 0.037 18 489101 0 0.115 19 489102 0 0.058 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 489121 0 0.014 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.071 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.065 MEDIAN 0 0.056 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.092 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.008 LOWER HINGE 0 0.017 UPPER HINGE 0 0.109 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.271 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 1.000 0.072 0.297 3.572 0.063 0.373 2 489012 1723 1944 222 1.000 0.064 0.571 3.713 0.066 0.091 3 489021 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.076 0.464 2.943 0.069 0.322 4 489022 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.050 0.441 2.823 0.051 0.209 5 489031 1702 1977 276 1.000 0.072 0.874 5.112 0.060 0.295 6 489041 1664 1909 246 1.000 0.066 0.569 4.007 0.065 0.144 7 489042 1659 1977 319 1.000 0.078 1.071 5.042 0.058 0.517 8 489051 1707 1938 232 1.000 0.070 1.281 9.057 0.057 0.288 9 489052 1711 1977 267 1.000 0.053 0.376 3.105 0.053 0.101 10 489061 1833 1977 145 1.000 0.066 0.498 4.006 0.066 0.094 11 489062 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.063 0.459 3.403 0.052 0.353 12 489071 1838 1977 140 1.000 0.057 0.156 2.853 0.056 0.231 13 489072 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.066 0.492 3.288 0.061 0.240 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.000 0.082 0.572 3.523 0.083 0.126 15 489082 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.077 0.892 4.692 0.064 0.362 16 489091 1697 1977 281 1.000 0.084 1.305 7.005 0.080 0.131 17 489092 1690 1977 288 1.000 0.066 1.385 7.922 0.059 0.191 18 489101 1743 1977 235 1.000 0.083 0.994 5.454 0.067 0.338 19 489102 1746 1977 232 1.000 0.082 1.548 9.314 0.073 0.237 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 1.000 0.056 0.041 3.257 0.058 0.119 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 1.000 0.069 0.714 4.705 0.063 0.238 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.010 0.429 2.049 0.009 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 1.000 0.068 0.570 3.859 0.062 0.234 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.000 0.014 0.582 2.011 0.009 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 121 1.000 0.050 0.041 2.823 0.051 0.091 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.063 0.450 3.272 0.058 0.129 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 1.000 0.077 1.032 5.283 0.067 0.330 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 1.000 0.084 1.548 9.314 0.083 0.517 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.159 0.114 0.008 0.086 3.024 -0.150 0.457 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.150 SERIES 489072 AND 489092 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.457 SERIES 489081 AND 489121 121 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.169 0.161 0.171 0.144 0.164 0.226 0.154 0.190 0.168 0.149 SDEV 0.000 0.099 0.208 0.186 0.171 0.173 0.175 0.167 0.164 0.177 SERR 0.000 0.022 0.035 0.023 0.021 0.020 0.016 0.012 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.555 0.646 0.701 0.669 0.719 0.823 0.774 0.824 0.798 0.761 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.997 0.033 -0.057 3.065 0.036 0.047 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.218 0.143 -0.085 113 206 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.74 1.01 1.09 1.83 42.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.047 0.046 0.055 0.064 0.016 0.004 -0.003 -0.063 0.004 0.042 PACF 0.047 0.044 0.051 0.058 0.006 -0.005 -0.011 -0.068 0.009 0.048 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.997 0.033 -0.057 3.065 0.036 0.047 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.047 0.046 0.055 0.064 0.016 0.004 -0.003 -0.063 0.004 0.042 PACF 0.047 0.044 0.051 0.058 0.006 -0.005 -0.011 -0.068 0.009 0.048 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES