RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN021P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN021P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 489 1 Pic dAnie LATEWOOD_PERCENT PIMU - 489 2 France krummholz pine 1750 4258-44 1659 1977 - 489 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 489021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1848 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 489031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1761 1761 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 489041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1726 1726 / 1770 1770 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 489052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 489091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1749 1749 / 1859 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 489092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1856 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 489101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1761 1761 / 1766 1766 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 2.408 0.834 0.545 4.049 0.383 0.095 2 489012 1723 1944 222 2.134 0.930 0.061 3.492 0.431 0.362 3 489021 1831 1977 147 2.418 1.132 0.519 2.991 0.390 0.507 4 489022 1854 1977 124 1.776 0.788 0.301 3.341 0.476 0.217 5 489031 1702 1977 276 1.443 0.956 0.506 2.902 0.675 0.232 6 489041 1664 1909 246 2.134 1.168 1.082 6.659 0.440 0.481 7 489042 1659 1977 319 1.939 0.897 2.453 13.746 0.349 0.329 8 489051 1707 1938 232 1.764 0.892 0.613 3.689 0.467 0.471 9 489052 1711 1977 267 1.732 0.647 0.128 2.826 0.393 0.267 10 489061 1833 1977 145 1.204 0.658 0.619 3.322 0.533 0.387 11 489062 1749 1977 229 1.349 0.647 0.609 4.331 0.537 0.102 12 489071 1838 1977 140 2.551 0.944 0.470 3.442 0.385 0.150 13 489072 1850 1977 128 2.497 0.804 0.395 3.672 0.314 0.259 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.635 0.844 0.359 4.346 0.545 0.291 15 489082 1811 1977 167 1.273 0.714 1.473 7.727 0.610 0.095 16 489091 1697 1977 281 2.893 1.348 0.389 4.276 0.497 0.264 17 489092 1690 1977 288 2.213 0.883 0.862 6.412 0.401 0.176 18 489101 1743 1977 235 2.289 1.076 0.672 4.119 0.419 0.429 19 489102 1746 1977 232 2.230 0.814 0.588 4.468 0.397 0.145 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 2.141 0.836 0.036 3.015 0.475 -0.037 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1659 TO 1977 319 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 2.001 0.891 0.634 4.641 0.456 0.261 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.467 0.181 0.542 2.516 0.090 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 2.134 0.863 0.532 3.869 0.435 0.262 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.665 0.154 0.271 1.076 0.124 0.227 MINIMUM VALUE 121 1.204 0.647 0.036 2.826 0.314 -0.037 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 1.683 0.796 0.374 3.331 0.391 0.148 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 2.349 0.950 0.645 4.407 0.515 0.374 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 2.893 1.348 2.453 13.746 0.675 0.507 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.241 0.108 0.008 -0.085 3.293 -0.078 0.512 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.078 SERIES 489041 AND 489101 167 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.512 SERIES 489011 AND 489071 140 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.249 0.434 0.382 0.224 0.298 0.297 0.219 0.280 0.253 0.229 SDEV 0.000 0.124 0.112 0.146 0.171 0.142 0.155 0.155 0.158 0.175 SERR 0.000 0.027 0.019 0.018 0.021 0.016 0.014 0.011 0.012 0.015 EPS 0.671 0.880 0.875 0.776 0.848 0.870 0.841 0.886 0.869 0.845 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 2.044 0.563 0.686 5.363 0.277 0.267 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.238 0.154 0.493 85 234 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 1.30 1.01 1.08 2.39 56.61 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 230. 122. 121. 146. 268. 319. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.266 0.269 0.293 0.223 0.180 0.152 0.154 0.155 0.137 0.016 PACF 0.266 0.213 0.204 0.087 0.032 0.010 0.035 0.052 0.034 -0.111 95% C.L. 0.112 0.120 0.127 0.135 0.140 0.143 0.145 0.147 0.149 0.150 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.168 0.142 0.156 0.204 0.095 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 489011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00184014 2.15862346 2 489012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00364026 2.54007816 3 489021 1 1.56568885 0.02230162 0.00000000 1.91896069 4 489022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014999 1.76675451 5 489031 1 3.26348591 0.18416491 0.00000000 1.37881684 6 489041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00151016 1.94709682 7 489042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00265681 2.36424327 8 489051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00057049 1.69758952 9 489052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00118018 1.57582951 10 489061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00584180 0.77803159 11 489062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00191509 1.56918752 12 489071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00162085 2.43708730 13 489072 1 1.15566802 0.00615659 0.00000000 1.69950867 14 489081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00468385 1.34891319 15 489082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031027 1.24693096 16 489091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00470100 2.22305036 17 489092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00265977 1.80443990 18 489101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00523735 2.90142846 19 489102 1 1.18554688 0.00238932 0.00000000 1.32124746 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 489121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050950 2.18406463 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 1.000 0.339 0.416 3.707 0.382 0.068 2 489012 1723 1944 222 1.000 0.436 0.176 3.630 0.429 0.310 3 489021 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.413 -0.026 2.560 0.403 0.395 4 489022 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.444 0.309 3.365 0.472 0.215 5 489031 1702 1977 276 1.000 0.657 0.518 3.051 0.703 0.194 6 489041 1664 1909 246 1.001 0.544 1.200 7.913 0.437 0.488 7 489042 1659 1977 319 0.999 0.456 2.862 15.682 0.348 0.275 8 489051 1707 1938 232 1.000 0.501 0.551 3.514 0.465 0.468 9 489052 1711 1977 267 1.000 0.370 0.115 2.864 0.392 0.252 10 489061 1833 1977 145 1.006 0.564 1.047 5.255 0.529 0.232 11 489062 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.473 0.614 4.080 0.535 0.059 12 489071 1838 1977 140 1.000 0.367 0.415 3.327 0.382 0.142 13 489072 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.318 0.439 3.517 0.311 0.226 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.001 0.528 0.619 5.270 0.541 0.268 15 489082 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.565 1.550 8.138 0.607 0.100 16 489091 1697 1977 281 1.000 0.457 0.063 3.467 0.504 0.182 17 489092 1690 1977 288 1.000 0.392 0.536 5.069 0.412 0.161 18 489101 1743 1977 235 1.000 0.439 0.387 3.281 0.419 0.329 19 489102 1746 1977 232 1.000 0.357 0.482 4.063 0.395 0.127 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 1.000 0.390 0.020 2.988 0.472 -0.036 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 1.000 0.450 0.615 4.737 0.457 0.223 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.001 0.088 0.659 2.991 0.093 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 1.000 0.441 0.461 3.574 0.433 0.220 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.000 0.134 0.374 1.858 0.123 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.999 0.318 -0.026 2.560 0.311 -0.036 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.380 0.242 3.304 0.394 0.135 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 1.000 0.514 0.617 5.162 0.517 0.292 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 1.006 0.657 2.862 15.682 0.703 0.488 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 489011 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 489012 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 489021 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 489022 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 489031 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 489041 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 489042 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 489051 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 489052 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 489061 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 489062 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 489071 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 489072 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 489081 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 489082 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 489091 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 489092 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 489101 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 489102 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 489121 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 0.999 0.336 0.440 3.804 0.382 0.046 2 489012 1723 1944 222 0.999 0.430 0.129 3.636 0.429 0.295 3 489021 1831 1977 147 0.996 0.396 -0.148 2.613 0.403 0.345 4 489022 1854 1977 124 0.992 0.395 -0.161 3.057 0.471 0.009 5 489031 1702 1977 276 0.992 0.663 0.788 3.883 0.704 0.141 6 489041 1664 1909 246 0.993 0.453 0.165 3.969 0.437 0.308 7 489042 1659 1977 319 0.996 0.419 2.682 14.775 0.348 0.206 8 489051 1707 1938 232 0.995 0.485 0.477 3.354 0.465 0.446 9 489052 1711 1977 267 0.999 0.363 0.056 2.829 0.392 0.226 10 489061 1833 1977 145 0.997 0.510 0.661 3.924 0.529 0.199 11 489062 1749 1977 229 0.999 0.471 0.610 4.000 0.535 0.041 12 489071 1838 1977 140 0.998 0.355 0.380 3.412 0.382 0.106 13 489072 1850 1977 128 0.997 0.303 0.431 3.582 0.311 0.141 14 489081 1857 1977 121 0.997 0.535 1.020 7.095 0.541 0.229 15 489082 1811 1977 167 0.998 0.555 1.439 7.588 0.606 0.084 16 489091 1697 1977 281 0.999 0.451 -0.008 3.398 0.504 0.168 17 489092 1690 1977 288 0.999 0.386 0.538 5.122 0.412 0.128 18 489101 1743 1977 235 0.994 0.417 0.355 3.394 0.419 0.268 19 489102 1746 1977 232 0.999 0.350 0.433 3.986 0.395 0.104 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 0.999 0.386 0.075 3.065 0.472 -0.076 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 0.997 0.433 0.518 4.524 0.457 0.171 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.002 0.086 0.642 2.726 0.093 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 0.997 0.418 0.432 3.720 0.433 0.155 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.003 0.103 0.533 0.620 0.123 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.992 0.303 -0.161 2.613 0.311 -0.076 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.995 0.375 0.102 3.374 0.394 0.094 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 0.999 0.478 0.635 3.993 0.516 0.249 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 0.999 0.663 2.682 14.775 0.704 0.446 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.271 0.100 0.007 0.284 4.273 -0.063 0.619 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.063 SERIES 489041 AND 489071 72 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.619 SERIES 489071 AND 489072 128 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.131 0.435 0.375 0.228 0.295 0.310 0.226 0.284 0.260 0.243 SDEV 0.000 0.126 0.110 0.146 0.171 0.139 0.148 0.148 0.158 0.163 SERR 0.000 0.027 0.018 0.018 0.021 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.012 0.014 EPS 0.480 0.880 0.872 0.780 0.845 0.878 0.846 0.888 0.873 0.854 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.993 0.241 -0.049 2.944 0.277 0.050 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.180 0.105 0.216 110 209 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 1.28 1.00 1.12 2.40 65.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.050 0.070 0.137 0.026 -0.018 -0.009 0.004 0.021 0.028 -0.123 PACF 0.050 0.067 0.131 0.010 -0.038 -0.028 0.004 0.031 0.033 -0.133 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.115 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.028 0.052 0.178 0.056 0.009 -0.033 -0.046 -0.025 0.031 -0.136 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.028 2 0.027 0.052 3 0.018 0.047 0.176 4 0.010 0.045 0.175 0.047 5 0.010 0.046 0.176 0.047 -0.011 6 0.009 0.050 0.188 0.050 -0.010 -0.071 7 0.005 0.049 0.191 0.062 -0.007 -0.071 -0.065 8 0.003 0.048 0.191 0.064 -0.002 -0.070 -0.065 -0.023 9 0.005 0.051 0.195 0.064 -0.006 -0.081 -0.068 -0.023 0.058 10 0.011 0.049 0.188 0.055 -0.007 -0.073 -0.046 -0.017 0.058 -0.113 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2644.60 2646.35 2647.50 2639.47 2640.77 2642.74 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2643.11 2643.74 2645.57 2646.51 2644.39 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.018 0.047 0.176 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.43 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.55 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.018 0.047 0.178 0.009 0.017 0.032 0.003 0.004 0.006 0.0008 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 489011 3 0.037 0.023 0.134 0.118 2 489012 3 0.145 0.209 0.160 0.149 3 489021 3 0.169 0.278 0.060 0.205 4 489022 3 0.033 -0.002 0.109 0.089 5 489031 3 0.037 0.131 0.053 0.037 6 489041 3 0.111 0.285 0.093 0.011 7 489042 3 0.088 0.161 0.188 0.032 8 489051 3 0.254 0.323 0.192 0.099 9 489052 3 0.063 0.212 0.027 0.092 10 489061 3 0.157 0.168 0.028 0.248 11 489062 3 0.010 0.043 -0.033 0.023 12 489071 3 0.038 0.098 0.080 0.006 13 489072 3 0.027 0.145 -0.009 0.056 14 489081 3 0.068 0.198 0.124 0.016 15 489082 3 0.056 0.069 0.040 0.192 16 489091 3 0.034 0.178 -0.049 0.064 17 489092 3 0.048 0.101 0.135 0.073 18 489101 3 0.113 0.253 -0.013 0.178 19 489102 3 0.045 0.095 0.014 0.175 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 489121 3 0.029 -0.076 -0.013 0.107 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.078 0.145 0.066 0.099 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.062 0.103 0.074 0.072 MEDIAN 3 0.052 0.153 0.057 0.090 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.076 0.128 0.126 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.010 -0.076 -0.049 0.006 LOWER HINGE 3 0.036 0.082 0.003 0.035 UPPER HINGE 3 0.112 0.210 0.129 0.162 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.254 0.323 0.192 0.248 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 1.000 0.330 0.485 3.994 0.381 -0.005 2 489012 1723 1944 222 1.000 0.399 0.260 3.390 0.449 -0.013 3 489021 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.361 -0.090 2.966 0.436 -0.006 4 489022 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.390 -0.190 3.145 0.469 0.007 5 489031 1702 1977 276 1.001 0.654 0.814 4.019 0.713 0.005 6 489041 1664 1909 246 1.000 0.427 0.361 4.036 0.493 0.010 7 489042 1659 1977 319 1.000 0.402 2.503 13.846 0.372 -0.003 8 489051 1707 1938 232 1.001 0.419 0.326 3.284 0.518 -0.010 9 489052 1711 1977 267 1.000 0.351 0.093 3.016 0.415 -0.003 10 489061 1833 1977 145 1.000 0.481 0.731 4.117 0.533 0.051 11 489062 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.470 0.595 3.988 0.547 -0.002 12 489071 1838 1977 140 1.000 0.352 0.305 3.453 0.398 0.003 13 489072 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.300 0.389 3.556 0.332 0.006 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.001 0.515 0.913 6.178 0.585 0.000 15 489082 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.541 1.465 7.606 0.621 -0.021 16 489091 1697 1977 281 1.001 0.442 0.028 3.406 0.533 0.001 17 489092 1690 1977 288 1.000 0.378 0.549 4.846 0.424 -0.007 18 489101 1743 1977 235 1.000 0.395 0.495 3.607 0.458 -0.020 19 489102 1746 1977 232 1.000 0.343 0.583 4.214 0.392 0.009 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 1.000 0.383 0.062 3.016 0.448 0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 1.000 0.417 0.534 4.484 0.476 0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.083 0.599 2.475 0.094 0.015 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 1.000 0.397 0.437 3.797 0.453 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.000 0.100 0.487 0.829 0.127 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 121 1.000 0.300 -0.190 2.966 0.332 -0.021 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.356 0.177 3.337 0.407 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 1.000 0.456 0.663 4.166 0.533 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 1.001 0.654 2.503 13.846 0.713 0.051 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.283 0.096 0.007 0.621 4.645 0.012 0.655 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.012 SERIES 489041 AND 489071 72 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.655 SERIES 489011 AND 489012 222 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.258 0.406 0.370 0.229 0.309 0.325 0.224 0.295 0.274 0.249 SDEV 0.000 0.117 0.117 0.159 0.163 0.131 0.134 0.140 0.155 0.158 SERR 0.000 0.026 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.015 0.012 0.010 0.012 0.014 EPS 0.682 0.867 0.870 0.781 0.854 0.885 0.844 0.893 0.880 0.858 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.994 0.232 -0.095 2.985 0.289 -0.118 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.198 0.115 0.188 115 204 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.96 1.00 1.09 2.05 31.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.117 -0.030 0.040 -0.002 -0.034 -0.041 -0.002 0.037 0.066 -0.111 PACF -0.117 -0.044 0.032 0.006 -0.032 -0.051 -0.015 0.035 0.080 -0.094 95% C.L. 0.112 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.016 -0.118 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 -0.040 -0.049 0.003 0.045 0.059 -0.116 PACF 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 -0.040 -0.049 0.003 0.045 0.060 -0.118 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.994 0.234 -0.072 2.970 0.274 0.025 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.025 0.046 0.169 0.004 -0.020 -0.011 -0.015 0.018 0.040 -0.118 PACF 0.025 0.046 0.167 -0.005 -0.036 -0.039 -0.012 0.031 0.050 -0.122 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.115 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 0.116 0.116 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES