RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN021W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN021W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 489 1 Pic dAnie WIDTH_RING PIMU - 489 2 France krummholz pine 1750 4258-44 1659 1977 - 489 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 489021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1848 1855 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 489031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1761 1761 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 489041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1726 1728 / 1770 1771 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 489052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1945 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 489091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 2 GAPS / 1749 1749 / 1859 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 489092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1856 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 0.835 0.278 0.167 2.715 0.205 0.741 2 489012 1723 1944 222 0.822 0.365 0.383 2.085 0.186 0.859 3 489021 1831 1977 147 1.152 0.385 -0.142 2.747 0.201 0.713 4 489022 1854 1977 124 0.942 0.331 0.219 2.659 0.196 0.778 5 489031 1702 1977 276 0.518 0.304 3.009 13.662 0.265 0.813 6 489041 1664 1909 246 0.664 0.379 1.341 5.028 0.217 0.854 7 489042 1659 1977 319 0.605 0.280 1.426 4.954 0.218 0.843 8 489051 1707 1938 232 1.101 0.374 1.086 4.376 0.174 0.760 9 489052 1711 1977 267 0.700 0.390 1.295 4.859 0.219 0.862 10 489061 1833 1977 145 0.845 0.280 0.785 3.398 0.184 0.708 11 489062 1749 1977 229 0.563 0.194 0.527 2.681 0.206 0.731 12 489071 1838 1977 140 1.164 0.675 1.148 3.617 0.236 0.879 13 489072 1850 1977 128 1.603 0.598 0.795 3.725 0.188 0.762 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.310 0.432 0.698 3.943 0.219 0.664 15 489082 1811 1977 167 1.047 0.457 0.955 4.035 0.269 0.708 16 489091 1697 1977 281 0.773 0.368 0.908 4.211 0.273 0.737 17 489092 1690 1977 288 0.629 0.445 1.997 6.634 0.287 0.869 18 489101 1743 1977 235 0.936 0.559 1.062 3.516 0.264 0.793 19 489102 1746 1977 232 0.977 0.412 0.999 3.891 0.236 0.737 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 1.009 0.419 1.041 4.154 0.224 0.775 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1659 TO 1977 319 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 0.910 0.396 0.985 4.344 0.223 0.779 STANDARD DEVIATION 62 0.274 0.115 0.682 2.429 0.033 0.064 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 0.891 0.382 0.977 3.917 0.218 0.768 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 125 0.392 0.121 0.609 1.545 0.051 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.518 0.194 -0.142 2.085 0.174 0.664 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 142 0.682 0.318 0.612 3.072 0.199 0.734 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 1.074 0.439 1.222 4.617 0.250 0.849 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 1.603 0.675 3.009 13.662 0.287 0.879 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.411 0.215 0.016 -0.562 3.578 -0.417 0.875 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.417 SERIES 489071 AND 489091 140 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.875 SERIES 489041 AND 489042 246 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.719 0.417 0.344 0.402 0.381 0.313 0.339 0.372 0.203 0.405 SDEV 0.000 0.298 0.200 0.188 0.218 0.210 0.268 0.319 0.229 0.192 SERR 0.000 0.065 0.033 0.023 0.027 0.024 0.024 0.023 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.940 0.873 0.856 0.890 0.890 0.879 0.906 0.922 0.832 0.926 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.869 0.268 0.851 3.782 0.164 0.782 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.229 0.128 0.246 108 211 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 0.79 1.00 1.12 1.91 6.50 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 230. 122. 121. 146. 268. 319. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.779 0.702 0.674 0.625 0.563 0.531 0.478 0.444 0.431 0.429 PACF 0.779 0.241 0.192 0.052 -0.025 0.034 -0.040 0.016 0.061 0.081 95% C.L. 0.112 0.167 0.200 0.227 0.248 0.263 0.276 0.286 0.295 0.303 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.656 0.524 0.146 0.203 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 489011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00206986 1.11594737 2 489012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00415634 1.28590965 3 489021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00166929 0.99148947 4 489022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00062187 0.90355229 5 489031 1 1.65699637 0.06213793 0.00000000 0.42291778 6 489041 1 1.25929165 0.01124477 0.00000000 0.24912469 7 489042 1 0.92762321 0.01484303 0.00000000 0.41188011 8 489051 1 1.25942969 0.05090839 0.00000000 0.99674952 9 489052 1 1.29589224 0.01953162 0.00000000 0.45272774 10 489061 1 0.50776172 0.09268361 0.00000000 0.80925232 11 489062 1 0.56938130 0.00174708 0.00000000 0.09451170 12 489071 1 2.17560053 0.01534138 0.00000000 0.27640641 13 489072 1 1.19303668 0.02394532 0.00000000 1.23663402 14 489081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00277530 1.14103723 15 489082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00218980 1.23142850 16 489091 1 0.89058912 0.01462132 0.00000000 0.55626822 17 489092 1 1.60696387 0.02258416 0.00000000 0.37792915 18 489101 1 1.82386661 0.01829106 0.00000000 0.52175879 19 489102 1 1.15565109 0.00954675 0.00000000 0.51467872 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 489121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00554233 1.47707653 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 0.998 0.276 0.226 3.142 0.204 0.616 2 489012 1723 1944 222 0.999 0.320 1.081 4.834 0.185 0.721 3 489021 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.365 0.063 2.614 0.203 0.770 4 489022 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.350 0.207 2.644 0.195 0.772 5 489031 1702 1977 276 1.000 0.292 0.256 2.923 0.265 0.387 6 489041 1664 1909 246 1.000 0.306 0.588 2.852 0.214 0.623 7 489042 1659 1977 319 1.000 0.257 0.378 3.631 0.217 0.492 8 489051 1707 1938 232 1.000 0.272 0.535 3.531 0.173 0.660 9 489052 1711 1977 267 1.001 0.368 0.158 2.500 0.221 0.700 10 489061 1833 1977 145 1.000 0.319 0.881 3.864 0.182 0.731 11 489062 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.331 0.599 3.125 0.205 0.717 12 489071 1838 1977 140 1.004 0.362 1.223 5.057 0.234 0.687 13 489072 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.335 1.031 4.032 0.187 0.697 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.000 0.317 0.465 3.409 0.217 0.612 15 489082 1811 1977 167 0.999 0.420 0.790 3.490 0.267 0.692 16 489091 1697 1977 281 1.000 0.395 0.354 3.181 0.269 0.632 17 489092 1690 1977 288 1.001 0.339 0.137 2.773 0.284 0.500 18 489101 1743 1977 235 1.000 0.384 0.472 3.657 0.262 0.621 19 489102 1746 1977 232 1.000 0.294 0.415 3.320 0.235 0.506 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 1.004 0.325 1.362 6.585 0.222 0.618 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 1.000 0.331 0.561 3.558 0.222 0.638 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.001 0.043 0.381 0.982 0.033 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 1.000 0.328 0.469 3.364 0.217 0.646 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.001 0.064 0.595 0.873 0.050 0.094 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.998 0.257 0.063 2.500 0.173 0.387 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.300 0.241 2.887 0.199 0.614 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 1.000 0.364 0.836 3.761 0.249 0.708 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 1.004 0.420 1.362 6.585 0.284 0.772 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 489011 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 489012 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 489021 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 489022 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 489031 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 489041 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 489042 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 489051 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 489052 -67 178 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 489061 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 489062 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 489071 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 489072 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 489081 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 489082 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 489091 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 489092 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 489101 -67 157 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 489102 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 489121 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 0.999 0.268 0.220 3.061 0.204 0.593 2 489012 1723 1944 222 0.997 0.306 1.210 5.606 0.185 0.700 3 489021 1831 1977 147 0.996 0.344 0.207 2.535 0.203 0.726 4 489022 1854 1977 124 0.994 0.322 0.149 2.584 0.194 0.731 5 489031 1702 1977 276 0.999 0.283 0.241 3.050 0.265 0.357 6 489041 1664 1909 246 0.998 0.299 0.626 2.885 0.214 0.605 7 489042 1659 1977 319 0.999 0.252 0.348 3.542 0.217 0.466 8 489051 1707 1938 232 0.999 0.252 0.485 3.240 0.173 0.613 9 489052 1711 1977 267 0.994 0.350 0.526 3.403 0.221 0.684 10 489061 1833 1977 145 0.996 0.267 0.479 2.994 0.182 0.647 11 489062 1749 1977 229 0.996 0.313 0.499 3.120 0.205 0.684 12 489071 1838 1977 140 0.995 0.325 0.967 4.088 0.234 0.622 13 489072 1850 1977 128 0.992 0.249 0.795 3.693 0.187 0.486 14 489081 1857 1977 121 0.996 0.292 0.582 4.055 0.217 0.563 15 489082 1811 1977 167 0.988 0.339 0.289 2.932 0.267 0.553 16 489091 1697 1977 281 0.994 0.376 0.337 3.092 0.269 0.613 17 489092 1690 1977 288 0.998 0.329 0.181 2.987 0.284 0.466 18 489101 1743 1977 235 0.996 0.371 0.419 3.568 0.262 0.599 19 489102 1746 1977 232 0.998 0.286 0.448 3.401 0.235 0.477 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 0.995 0.274 0.691 4.167 0.222 0.491 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 0.996 0.305 0.485 3.400 0.222 0.584 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.003 0.039 0.274 0.694 0.033 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 0.996 0.302 0.464 3.180 0.217 0.602 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.004 0.063 0.339 0.640 0.050 0.177 MINIMUM VALUE 121 0.988 0.249 0.149 2.535 0.173 0.357 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.994 0.271 0.265 2.991 0.198 0.488 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 0.998 0.334 0.604 3.630 0.249 0.665 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 0.999 0.376 1.210 5.606 0.284 0.731 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.360 0.151 0.011 -0.602 3.845 -0.121 0.760 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.121 SERIES 489082 AND 489091 167 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.760 SERIES 489021 AND 489022 124 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.785 0.378 0.436 0.406 0.339 0.309 0.373 0.334 0.263 0.397 SDEV 0.000 0.261 0.160 0.182 0.208 0.210 0.260 0.270 0.218 0.195 SERR 0.000 0.057 0.027 0.022 0.026 0.024 0.024 0.020 0.017 0.017 EPS 0.957 0.853 0.898 0.891 0.871 0.877 0.918 0.909 0.875 0.923 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.986 0.193 0.387 3.297 0.158 0.512 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.268 0.116 0.102 86 233 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 0.75 1.00 1.11 1.86 12.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.511 0.400 0.384 0.240 0.123 0.130 0.029 -0.040 -0.051 -0.056 PACF 0.511 0.189 0.170 -0.059 -0.096 0.040 -0.076 -0.060 -0.029 0.013 95% C.L. 0.112 0.138 0.152 0.164 0.168 0.169 0.170 0.170 0.171 0.171 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.311 0.382 0.117 0.171 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.518 0.384 0.403 0.255 0.120 0.119 0.031 -0.057 -0.065 -0.065 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.518 2 0.436 0.158 3 0.402 0.064 0.215 4 0.416 0.068 0.241 -0.063 5 0.409 0.094 0.248 -0.018 -0.108 6 0.410 0.094 0.245 -0.020 -0.114 0.014 7 0.411 0.086 0.243 -0.002 -0.107 0.043 -0.071 8 0.407 0.089 0.236 -0.002 -0.091 0.049 -0.043 -0.068 9 0.405 0.088 0.237 -0.005 -0.091 0.055 -0.041 -0.057 -0.026 10 0.405 0.089 0.238 -0.005 -0.090 0.055 -0.044 -0.058 -0.032 0.013 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2496.13 2398.52 2392.46 2379.31 2380.03 2378.27 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2380.21 2380.59 2381.13 2382.91 2384.86 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.402 0.064 0.215 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 31.96 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 146.96 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.402 0.226 0.332 0.234 0.164 0.152 0.122 0.094 0.079 0.0640 0.051 0.042 0.034 0.027 0.022 0.018 0.014 0.012 0.009 0.0077 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0009 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 489011 3 0.421 0.385 0.208 0.161 2 489012 3 0.556 0.444 0.291 0.080 3 489021 3 0.542 0.681 -0.051 0.150 4 489022 3 0.591 0.643 -0.083 0.261 5 489031 3 0.140 0.322 0.058 0.077 6 489041 3 0.395 0.484 0.201 0.003 7 489042 3 0.269 0.343 0.249 0.017 8 489051 3 0.396 0.545 0.142 -0.038 9 489052 3 0.508 0.486 0.195 0.109 10 489061 3 0.454 0.517 0.228 -0.023 11 489062 3 0.497 0.561 0.050 0.164 12 489071 3 0.412 0.608 -0.002 0.040 13 489072 3 0.267 0.415 0.057 0.136 14 489081 3 0.367 0.464 0.151 0.038 15 489082 3 0.327 0.457 0.124 0.067 16 489091 3 0.399 0.532 0.038 0.133 17 489092 3 0.243 0.394 0.065 0.135 18 489101 3 0.377 0.497 0.122 0.062 19 489102 3 0.238 0.473 -0.027 0.080 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 489121 3 0.252 0.457 0.030 0.076 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.383 0.485 0.102 0.086 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.122 0.093 0.105 0.072 MEDIAN 3 0.395 0.478 0.094 0.078 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.207 0.109 0.164 0.096 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.140 0.322 -0.083 -0.038 LOWER HINGE 3 0.268 0.430 0.034 0.039 UPPER HINGE 3 0.476 0.538 0.198 0.135 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.591 0.681 0.291 0.261 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 489011 1708 1977 270 1.000 0.204 -0.016 3.498 0.234 0.011 2 489012 1723 1944 222 1.000 0.206 0.068 3.603 0.233 0.009 3 489021 1831 1977 147 1.000 0.233 0.469 3.901 0.256 0.013 4 489022 1854 1977 124 1.000 0.209 0.265 3.453 0.232 0.048 5 489031 1702 1977 276 1.000 0.263 0.216 2.998 0.307 -0.002 6 489041 1664 1909 246 1.000 0.232 0.176 3.019 0.265 -0.001 7 489042 1659 1977 319 1.000 0.215 0.102 3.607 0.250 0.001 8 489051 1707 1938 232 1.000 0.197 0.526 3.243 0.217 -0.004 9 489052 1711 1977 267 1.000 0.246 0.236 3.540 0.270 0.003 10 489061 1833 1977 145 1.000 0.197 -0.080 2.995 0.220 -0.003 11 489062 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.223 -0.110 3.457 0.252 0.014 12 489071 1838 1977 140 1.000 0.254 0.363 3.140 0.297 0.008 13 489072 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.214 0.931 4.403 0.219 0.012 14 489081 1857 1977 121 1.000 0.237 0.608 3.634 0.260 0.007 15 489082 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.278 0.027 2.949 0.311 0.002 16 489091 1697 1977 281 1.000 0.292 0.096 3.509 0.324 0.010 17 489092 1690 1977 288 1.000 0.287 0.086 2.990 0.336 -0.002 18 489101 1743 1977 235 1.000 0.293 0.534 4.462 0.318 -0.003 19 489102 1746 1977 232 1.000 0.250 0.459 3.275 0.285 0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 489121 1810 1977 168 1.000 0.237 0.399 3.051 0.272 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 212 1.000 0.238 0.268 3.436 0.268 0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.031 0.266 0.436 0.037 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 230 1.000 0.235 0.226 3.455 0.262 0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 122 0.000 0.047 0.387 0.570 0.069 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 121 1.000 0.197 -0.110 2.949 0.217 -0.004 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.212 0.077 3.035 0.233 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 268 1.000 0.258 0.464 3.605 0.302 0.011 MAXIMUM VALUE 319 1.000 0.293 0.931 4.462 0.336 0.048 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.396 0.105 0.008 0.191 3.808 0.112 0.715 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.112 SERIES 489041 AND 489091 213 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.715 SERIES 489021 AND 489022 124 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 51.95 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 1. 21. 36. 66. 66. 78. 120. 190. 171. 136. RBAR 0.590 0.368 0.437 0.447 0.449 0.453 0.422 0.381 0.327 0.409 SDEV 0.000 0.185 0.156 0.124 0.153 0.173 0.137 0.152 0.148 0.122 SERR 0.000 0.040 0.026 0.015 0.019 0.020 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.898 0.848 0.898 0.906 0.914 0.930 0.932 0.925 0.904 0.927 NSS 6.1 9.6 11.3 12.0 13.1 15.9 18.8 20.0 19.5 18.3 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.995 0.158 0.149 3.076 0.185 -0.044 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.139 0.057 0.113 79 240 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.86 1.01 1.14 2.00 6.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.044 -0.007 0.113 -0.008 -0.087 0.081 -0.030 -0.071 -0.048 -0.019 PACF -0.044 -0.009 0.112 0.002 -0.087 0.062 -0.023 -0.056 -0.071 -0.025 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.114 0.114 0.114 0.115 0.115 0.116 0.116 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.009 -0.007 0.000 -0.077 0.072 -0.028 -0.063 -0.062 -0.007 PACF 0.000 0.009 -0.007 0.000 -0.077 0.072 -0.028 -0.066 -0.061 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 0.114 0.114 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.009 -0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1659 1977 319 0.995 0.185 0.293 3.105 0.153 0.488 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.487 0.342 0.357 0.228 0.113 0.142 0.049 -0.029 -0.046 -0.046 PACF 0.487 0.138 0.195 -0.037 -0.073 0.059 -0.074 -0.061 -0.049 0.007 95% C.L. 0.112 0.136 0.146 0.157 0.161 0.162 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.281 0.393 0.055 0.196 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES