RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN022N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN022N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 481 1 Llipodre DENSITY_MINIMUM PIMU - 481 2 France krummholz pine 1950 4227-223 1839 1977 - 481 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 481081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 481011 1848 1977 130 0.366 0.022 0.469 3.080 0.053 0.295 2 481012 1848 1977 130 0.367 0.021 0.127 2.719 0.048 0.359 3 481021 1870 1977 108 0.351 0.022 0.527 5.148 0.059 0.225 4 481022 1862 1977 116 0.349 0.043 4.739 36.359 0.079 0.374 5 481031 1850 1977 128 0.332 0.025 -0.109 2.663 0.043 0.703 6 481032 1853 1977 125 0.332 0.020 0.600 4.195 0.048 0.378 7 481051 1861 1977 117 0.358 0.029 2.794 16.633 0.052 0.447 8 481052 1858 1977 120 0.360 0.021 0.645 3.816 0.044 0.443 9 481061 1886 1977 92 0.411 0.055 1.253 3.884 0.074 0.716 10 481062 1868 1977 110 0.382 0.037 1.438 5.496 0.061 0.620 11 481081 1844 1977 134 0.356 0.020 0.374 3.590 0.043 0.437 12 481082 1839 1977 139 0.355 0.017 0.298 2.939 0.042 0.414 13 481091 1860 1977 118 0.326 0.020 1.811 10.304 0.055 0.226 14 481092 1855 1977 123 0.339 0.022 1.145 4.292 0.044 0.576 15 481101 1842 1977 136 0.372 0.028 0.458 2.793 0.050 0.581 16 481102 1853 1977 125 0.378 0.022 -0.584 3.892 0.053 0.384 17 481111 1862 1977 116 0.306 0.023 0.398 2.912 0.050 0.643 18 481112 1877 1977 101 0.317 0.020 0.690 3.550 0.052 0.415 19 481131 1853 1977 125 0.355 0.020 -0.135 3.421 0.060 0.099 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 481132 1866 1977 112 0.367 0.026 1.087 4.330 0.053 0.532 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1839 TO 1977 139 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 0.354 0.026 0.901 6.301 0.053 0.443 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.024 0.009 1.173 7.791 0.010 0.164 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 121 0.356 0.022 0.564 3.850 0.052 0.426 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 14 0.031 0.007 0.863 1.730 0.011 0.212 MINIMUM VALUE 92 0.306 0.017 -0.584 2.663 0.042 0.099 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 0.336 0.020 0.336 3.009 0.046 0.367 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 128 0.367 0.027 1.199 4.739 0.057 0.579 MAXIMUM VALUE 139 0.411 0.055 4.739 36.359 0.079 0.716 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.256 0.178 0.013 -0.356 3.349 -0.371 0.697 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.371 SERIES 481011 AND 481061 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.697 SERIES 481061 AND 481101 92 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 81.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 105. 190. 190. RBAR 0.245 0.157 0.294 SDEV 0.204 0.223 0.178 SERR 0.020 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.861 0.788 0.893 NSS 19.2 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1839 1977 139 0.355 0.016 0.875 4.728 0.034 0.472 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.170 -0.082 0.057 52 87 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 1.13 1.00 1.09 2.21 10.79 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.85 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 122. 15. 92. 114. 129. 139. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.468 0.412 0.411 0.409 0.291 0.224 0.199 0.189 0.157 0.172 PACF 0.468 0.247 0.204 0.167 -0.029 -0.059 -0.028 0.015 0.020 0.077 95% C.L. 0.170 0.203 0.226 0.247 0.266 0.275 0.280 0.284 0.288 0.290 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.345 0.237 0.144 0.177 0.203 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 481011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005249 0.36256173 2 481012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00019566 0.38020036 3 481021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007107 0.34760818 4 481022 1 0.13624789 0.09903220 0.00000000 0.33768305 5 481031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042746 0.35991511 6 481032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025628 0.34790581 7 481051 1 0.16678557 0.00289555 0.00000000 0.21677531 8 481052 1 0.04873003 0.19473188 0.00000000 0.35769445 9 481061 1 0.18258744 0.03673110 0.00000000 0.35995755 10 481062 1 0.09989946 0.02371078 0.00000000 0.34721226 11 481081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007284 0.36089230 12 481082 1 0.04060306 0.12002756 0.00000000 0.35231379 13 481091 1 0.01914163 0.10843176 0.00000000 0.32451585 14 481092 1 0.05823937 0.04074511 0.00000000 0.32771510 15 481101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046632 0.40392810 16 481102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017419 0.36694580 17 481111 1 0.08183979 0.15698543 0.00000000 0.30171147 18 481112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022609 0.32846138 19 481131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006151 0.35156515 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 481132 1 0.11500578 0.16359521 0.00000000 0.36109778 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 481011 1848 1977 130 1.000 0.060 0.565 3.142 0.053 0.284 2 481012 1848 1977 130 1.000 0.053 -0.004 3.062 0.048 0.269 3 481021 1870 1977 108 1.000 0.062 0.707 5.697 0.058 0.214 4 481022 1862 1977 116 1.000 0.092 2.587 18.787 0.078 0.070 5 481031 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.060 0.154 2.779 0.043 0.553 6 481032 1853 1977 125 1.000 0.052 0.522 3.940 0.048 0.236 7 481051 1861 1977 117 1.000 0.069 2.619 16.208 0.051 0.291 8 481052 1858 1977 120 1.000 0.055 0.661 3.966 0.044 0.416 9 481061 1886 1977 92 1.000 0.067 0.495 3.437 0.073 0.021 10 481062 1868 1977 110 1.000 0.069 1.182 6.032 0.060 0.297 11 481081 1844 1977 134 1.000 0.054 0.375 3.603 0.044 0.387 12 481082 1839 1977 139 1.000 0.045 0.171 3.033 0.042 0.323 13 481091 1860 1977 118 1.000 0.061 1.772 9.994 0.055 0.197 14 481092 1855 1977 123 1.000 0.049 0.479 3.182 0.044 0.301 15 481101 1842 1977 136 1.000 0.054 -0.046 3.683 0.050 0.262 16 481102 1853 1977 125 1.000 0.057 -0.469 3.642 0.053 0.336 17 481111 1862 1977 116 1.000 0.067 0.186 2.897 0.049 0.565 18 481112 1877 1977 101 1.000 0.058 0.410 3.718 0.051 0.312 19 481131 1853 1977 125 1.000 0.057 -0.042 3.393 0.059 0.086 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 481132 1866 1977 112 1.000 0.056 0.581 3.896 0.053 0.275 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.060 0.645 5.404 0.053 0.285 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.010 0.818 4.462 0.009 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.058 0.487 3.663 0.051 0.287 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 15 0.000 0.010 0.521 1.669 0.010 0.105 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.045 -0.469 2.779 0.042 0.021 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.054 0.163 3.162 0.046 0.225 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 129 1.000 0.064 0.684 4.831 0.057 0.330 MAXIMUM VALUE 139 1.000 0.092 2.619 18.787 0.078 0.565 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 481011 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 481012 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 481021 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 481022 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 481031 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 481032 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 481051 -67 78 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 481052 -67 80 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 481061 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 481062 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 481081 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 481082 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 481091 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 481092 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 481101 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 481102 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 481111 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 481112 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 481131 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 481132 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 481011 1848 1977 130 1.000 0.052 0.342 3.666 0.053 0.095 2 481012 1848 1977 130 1.000 0.049 -0.065 3.351 0.048 0.154 3 481021 1870 1977 108 1.000 0.057 0.414 4.208 0.058 0.090 4 481022 1862 1977 116 1.000 0.089 2.986 21.306 0.078 0.006 5 481031 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.053 0.346 3.234 0.043 0.423 6 481032 1853 1977 125 1.000 0.049 0.595 4.459 0.048 0.145 7 481051 1861 1977 117 1.000 0.068 2.697 16.937 0.051 0.271 8 481052 1858 1977 120 1.000 0.050 1.137 5.126 0.044 0.295 9 481061 1886 1977 92 1.000 0.064 0.367 3.235 0.073 -0.028 10 481062 1868 1977 110 1.000 0.068 1.182 6.059 0.060 0.285 11 481081 1844 1977 134 1.000 0.050 0.460 4.086 0.044 0.276 12 481082 1839 1977 139 1.000 0.044 0.114 2.999 0.042 0.296 13 481091 1860 1977 118 1.000 0.060 1.769 10.031 0.055 0.180 14 481092 1855 1977 123 1.000 0.047 0.434 3.108 0.044 0.262 15 481101 1842 1977 136 1.000 0.052 0.097 3.785 0.050 0.179 16 481102 1853 1977 125 1.000 0.053 -0.592 3.850 0.053 0.234 17 481111 1862 1977 116 1.000 0.055 0.246 3.484 0.049 0.346 18 481112 1877 1977 101 1.000 0.051 0.416 3.470 0.052 0.143 19 481131 1853 1977 125 1.000 0.055 0.019 3.484 0.059 0.017 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 481132 1866 1977 112 1.000 0.054 0.678 4.124 0.053 0.207 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.056 0.682 5.700 0.053 0.194 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.010 0.891 4.897 0.009 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.053 0.415 3.817 0.051 0.193 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 15 0.000 0.009 0.727 1.382 0.010 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.044 -0.592 2.999 0.042 -0.028 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.050 0.180 3.411 0.046 0.119 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 129 1.000 0.059 0.907 4.793 0.057 0.280 MAXIMUM VALUE 139 1.000 0.089 2.986 21.306 0.078 0.423 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.277 0.115 0.008 0.213 2.666 0.013 0.578 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.013 SERIES 481051 AND 481062 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.578 SERIES 481101 AND 481102 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 81.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 105. 190. 190. RBAR 0.252 0.192 0.337 SDEV 0.172 0.151 0.134 SERR 0.017 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.866 0.826 0.910 NSS 19.2 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1839 1977 139 0.999 0.032 0.109 3.317 0.035 0.030 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.203 0.097 -0.053 42 97 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.68 1.01 1.13 1.81 14.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.029 -0.035 0.084 0.111 -0.078 -0.124 -0.059 -0.090 -0.100 0.016 PACF 0.029 -0.036 0.086 0.106 -0.080 -0.122 -0.079 -0.097 -0.067 0.048 95% C.L. 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.171 0.173 0.174 0.177 0.177 0.179 0.180 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.036 0.038 0.078 0.047 -0.087 -0.091 -0.046 -0.105 -0.162 -0.075 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.036 2 0.034 0.037 3 0.031 0.034 0.075 4 0.028 0.033 0.074 0.041 5 0.032 0.040 0.077 0.044 -0.096 6 0.023 0.044 0.085 0.048 -0.093 -0.097 7 0.019 0.040 0.087 0.052 -0.091 -0.096 -0.042 8 0.015 0.032 0.079 0.056 -0.084 -0.092 -0.041 -0.086 9 0.004 0.027 0.066 0.045 -0.076 -0.081 -0.036 -0.084 -0.136 10 -0.005 0.022 0.064 0.040 -0.081 -0.079 -0.033 -0.082 -0.136 -0.059 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 522.62 524.44 526.25 527.46 529.22 529.92 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 530.62 532.37 533.34 532.74 534.25 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 481011 0 0.009 2 481012 0 0.024 3 481021 0 0.008 4 481022 0 0.000 5 481031 0 0.190 6 481032 0 0.022 7 481051 0 0.073 8 481052 0 0.087 9 481061 0 0.001 10 481062 0 0.082 11 481081 0 0.077 12 481082 0 0.089 13 481091 0 0.034 14 481092 0 0.070 15 481101 0 0.032 16 481102 0 0.057 17 481111 0 0.120 18 481112 0 0.022 19 481131 0 0.000 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 481132 0 0.044 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.052 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.048 MEDIAN 0 0.039 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.064 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.015 UPPER HINGE 0 0.079 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.190 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 481011 1848 1977 130 1.000 0.052 0.342 3.666 0.053 0.095 2 481012 1848 1977 130 1.000 0.049 -0.065 3.351 0.048 0.154 3 481021 1870 1977 108 1.000 0.057 0.414 4.208 0.058 0.090 4 481022 1862 1977 116 1.000 0.089 2.986 21.306 0.078 0.006 5 481031 1850 1977 128 1.000 0.053 0.346 3.234 0.043 0.423 6 481032 1853 1977 125 1.000 0.049 0.595 4.459 0.048 0.145 7 481051 1861 1977 117 1.000 0.068 2.697 16.937 0.051 0.271 8 481052 1858 1977 120 1.000 0.050 1.137 5.126 0.044 0.295 9 481061 1886 1977 92 1.000 0.064 0.367 3.235 0.073 -0.028 10 481062 1868 1977 110 1.000 0.068 1.182 6.059 0.060 0.285 11 481081 1844 1977 134 1.000 0.050 0.460 4.086 0.044 0.276 12 481082 1839 1977 139 1.000 0.044 0.114 2.999 0.042 0.296 13 481091 1860 1977 118 1.000 0.060 1.769 10.031 0.055 0.180 14 481092 1855 1977 123 1.000 0.047 0.434 3.108 0.044 0.262 15 481101 1842 1977 136 1.000 0.052 0.097 3.785 0.050 0.179 16 481102 1853 1977 125 1.000 0.053 -0.592 3.850 0.053 0.234 17 481111 1862 1977 116 1.000 0.055 0.246 3.484 0.049 0.346 18 481112 1877 1977 101 1.000 0.051 0.416 3.470 0.052 0.143 19 481131 1853 1977 125 1.000 0.055 0.019 3.484 0.059 0.017 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 481132 1866 1977 112 1.000 0.054 0.678 4.124 0.053 0.207 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 120 1.000 0.056 0.682 5.700 0.053 0.194 STANDARD DEVIATION 11 0.000 0.010 0.891 4.897 0.009 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 121 1.000 0.053 0.415 3.817 0.051 0.193 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 15 0.000 0.009 0.727 1.382 0.010 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 92 1.000 0.044 -0.592 2.999 0.042 -0.028 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 114 1.000 0.050 0.180 3.411 0.046 0.119 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 129 1.000 0.059 0.907 4.793 0.057 0.280 MAXIMUM VALUE 139 1.000 0.089 2.986 21.306 0.078 0.423 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.277 0.115 0.008 0.213 2.666 0.013 0.578 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.013 SERIES 481051 AND 481062 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.578 SERIES 481101 AND 481102 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 81.64 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 105. 190. 190. RBAR 0.252 0.192 0.337 SDEV 0.172 0.151 0.134 SERR 0.017 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.866 0.826 0.910 NSS 19.2 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1839 1977 139 0.999 0.032 0.109 3.317 0.035 0.030 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.203 0.097 -0.054 42 97 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.68 1.01 1.13 1.81 14.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.029 -0.035 0.084 0.111 -0.079 -0.124 -0.059 -0.090 -0.100 0.016 PACF 0.029 -0.036 0.086 0.106 -0.080 -0.122 -0.079 -0.097 -0.067 0.048 95% C.L. 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.171 0.173 0.174 0.177 0.177 0.179 0.180 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1839 1977 139 0.999 0.032 0.109 3.317 0.035 0.030 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.029 -0.035 0.084 0.111 -0.079 -0.124 -0.059 -0.090 -0.100 0.016 PACF 0.029 -0.036 0.086 0.106 -0.080 -0.122 -0.079 -0.097 -0.067 0.048 95% C.L. 0.170 0.170 0.170 0.171 0.173 0.174 0.177 0.177 0.179 0.180 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.22 MINUTES