RUN: FRAN002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN024P.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN024P.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 484 1 Formigu¸res LATEWOOD_PERCENT ABAL - 484 2 France silver fir, European fir 1700 4236-204 1742 1977 - 484 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 12 484062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1870 1873 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 484072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 27 IN 1 GAPS / 1870 1896 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 484011 1795 1977 183 2.220 0.610 1.157 5.297 0.191 0.529 2 484012 1778 1977 200 2.305 0.650 1.325 5.198 0.194 0.538 3 484021 1766 1977 212 2.441 0.757 1.092 4.950 0.227 0.583 4 484022 1839 1977 139 2.980 0.984 1.078 3.616 0.211 0.674 5 484031 1759 1977 219 2.673 0.813 0.674 3.352 0.218 0.557 6 484032 1792 1977 186 2.777 0.759 -0.009 3.784 0.218 0.422 7 484041 1793 1977 185 2.728 0.867 0.205 4.970 0.243 0.506 8 484042 1809 1977 169 2.945 0.794 0.823 3.401 0.186 0.594 9 484051 1841 1977 137 2.494 0.632 0.667 3.331 0.204 0.453 10 484052 1881 1977 97 2.185 0.505 0.437 2.678 0.187 0.574 11 484061 1781 1977 197 3.174 0.731 0.752 3.320 0.185 0.380 12 484062 1808 1977 170 3.123 0.765 0.833 4.870 0.177 0.516 13 484071 1742 1977 236 2.808 1.244 1.599 5.786 0.245 0.691 14 484072 1826 1977 152 3.719 0.889 0.552 3.109 0.177 0.553 15 484081 1801 1977 177 3.058 0.848 1.500 8.932 0.209 0.484 16 484082 1811 1977 167 3.882 1.014 0.434 3.552 0.183 0.545 17 484091 1860 1977 118 2.044 0.515 0.263 2.579 0.220 0.419 18 484092 1843 1977 135 2.022 0.553 0.520 3.338 0.238 0.389 19 484101 1800 1977 178 2.560 0.587 1.108 6.284 0.226 0.020 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 484102 1811 1977 167 2.810 0.878 1.000 3.904 0.218 0.531 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1742 TO 1977 236 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 2.747 0.770 0.800 4.312 0.208 0.498 STANDARD DEVIATION 35 0.501 0.185 0.433 1.515 0.022 0.140 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 2.753 0.762 0.787 3.700 0.210 0.530 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.646 0.252 0.621 1.750 0.036 0.128 MINIMUM VALUE 97 2.022 0.505 -0.009 2.579 0.177 0.020 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 138 2.373 0.621 0.478 3.334 0.186 0.437 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 191 3.019 0.872 1.100 5.084 0.223 0.565 MAXIMUM VALUE 236 3.882 1.244 1.599 8.932 0.245 0.691 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.203 0.196 0.014 -0.164 2.912 -0.295 0.787 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.295 SERIES 484051 AND 484082 137 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.787 SERIES 484091 AND 484092 118 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 36. 91. 153. 171. 190. 190. RBAR 0.005 0.115 0.288 0.322 0.311 0.213 0.194 SDEV 0.093 0.194 0.185 0.171 0.181 0.203 0.263 SERR 0.054 0.032 0.019 0.014 0.014 0.015 0.019 EPS 0.046 0.649 0.875 0.901 0.900 0.844 0.828 NSS 8.9 14.2 17.3 19.2 19.9 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1977 236 2.941 0.811 2.969 15.318 0.157 0.583 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.282 -0.109 1.033 79 157 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 0.74 1.00 1.11 1.85 9.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 174. 46. 97. 146. 192. 236. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.580 0.460 0.312 0.380 0.417 0.374 0.432 0.326 0.357 0.342 PACF 0.580 0.185 -0.019 0.238 0.183 0.003 0.216 -0.055 0.074 0.099 95% C.L. 0.130 0.168 0.188 0.197 0.209 0.223 0.233 0.246 0.254 0.262 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.436 0.441 0.287 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 484011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00550349 2.72659469 2 484012 1 1.77334905 0.02223973 0.00000000 1.91532433 3 484021 1 1.58337533 0.03831862 0.00000000 2.24970937 4 484022 1 3.06383538 0.03350395 0.00000000 2.33917403 5 484031 1 1.73570061 0.01929315 0.00000000 2.27186084 6 484032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00234522 2.99669743 7 484041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009810 2.73744774 8 484042 1 1.23688221 0.02262398 0.00000000 2.63206005 9 484051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00625726 2.06204486 10 484052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01147381 1.62283504 11 484061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00127166 3.29965043 12 484062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00356578 3.43904305 13 484071 1 3.33542347 0.01634188 0.00000000 1.96817613 14 484072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01132783 4.67473888 15 484081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00733512 2.40468860 16 484082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01170213 4.86453581 17 484091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00297857 2.22120810 18 484092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00654068 2.46691442 19 484101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00067170 2.62051034 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 484102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00556113 2.34334397 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 484011 1795 1977 183 1.000 0.236 1.072 5.030 0.190 0.405 2 484012 1778 1977 200 1.000 0.196 0.430 3.833 0.193 0.152 3 484021 1766 1977 212 1.000 0.279 1.009 4.899 0.226 0.483 4 484022 1839 1977 139 1.000 0.228 2.029 11.004 0.209 0.229 5 484031 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.261 0.642 4.134 0.217 0.385 6 484032 1792 1977 186 1.000 0.270 0.109 4.262 0.217 0.425 7 484041 1793 1977 185 1.000 0.318 0.207 4.973 0.241 0.504 8 484042 1809 1977 169 1.000 0.240 0.339 2.798 0.185 0.513 9 484051 1841 1977 137 1.001 0.237 0.683 3.318 0.202 0.373 10 484052 1881 1977 97 1.002 0.185 0.283 2.467 0.185 0.213 11 484061 1781 1977 197 1.000 0.229 0.710 3.168 0.184 0.374 12 484062 1808 1977 170 1.000 0.237 0.670 3.936 0.180 0.492 13 484071 1742 1977 236 1.000 0.302 1.033 4.561 0.244 0.469 14 484072 1826 1977 152 1.000 0.188 0.384 3.086 0.175 0.311 15 484081 1801 1977 177 1.000 0.251 1.545 7.863 0.207 0.368 16 484082 1811 1977 167 0.999 0.210 0.121 4.292 0.182 0.347 17 484091 1860 1977 118 1.000 0.249 0.397 2.644 0.218 0.405 18 484092 1843 1977 135 0.999 0.240 0.448 2.978 0.236 0.219 19 484101 1800 1977 178 1.000 0.228 1.018 5.799 0.224 0.023 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 484102 1811 1977 167 1.001 0.296 0.806 3.289 0.217 0.475 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.244 0.697 4.417 0.207 0.358 STANDARD DEVIATION 34 0.001 0.036 0.487 2.003 0.022 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.238 0.656 4.035 0.208 0.380 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.000 0.037 0.652 1.809 0.036 0.202 MINIMUM VALUE 97 0.999 0.185 0.109 2.467 0.175 0.023 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 145 1.000 0.228 0.362 3.127 0.185 0.270 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 191 1.000 0.265 1.013 4.936 0.221 0.472 MAXIMUM VALUE 236 1.002 0.318 2.029 11.004 0.244 0.513 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 484011 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 484012 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 484021 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 484022 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 484031 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 484032 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 484041 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 484042 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 484051 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 484052 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 484061 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 484062 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 484071 -67 158 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 484072 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 484081 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 484082 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 484091 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 484092 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 484101 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 484102 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 484011 1795 1977 183 0.998 0.223 1.084 5.177 0.190 0.348 2 484012 1778 1977 200 0.999 0.191 0.607 4.627 0.193 0.088 3 484021 1766 1977 212 0.998 0.258 1.287 6.077 0.225 0.390 4 484022 1839 1977 139 0.999 0.224 1.950 10.549 0.209 0.206 5 484031 1759 1977 219 0.998 0.247 0.420 3.793 0.217 0.338 6 484032 1792 1977 186 0.999 0.264 0.144 4.694 0.217 0.402 7 484041 1793 1977 185 0.997 0.290 -0.138 5.278 0.241 0.429 8 484042 1809 1977 169 0.997 0.223 0.333 2.928 0.185 0.444 9 484051 1841 1977 137 0.998 0.203 0.551 3.272 0.202 0.164 10 484052 1881 1977 97 0.999 0.164 0.249 3.129 0.185 0.006 11 484061 1781 1977 197 0.999 0.223 0.672 3.011 0.184 0.346 12 484062 1808 1977 170 0.998 0.221 0.816 4.279 0.180 0.405 13 484071 1742 1977 236 0.996 0.268 0.971 4.644 0.244 0.349 14 484072 1826 1977 152 0.999 0.180 0.535 3.420 0.175 0.227 15 484081 1801 1977 177 0.999 0.238 1.426 7.570 0.207 0.307 16 484082 1811 1977 167 0.999 0.200 0.006 4.672 0.182 0.297 17 484091 1860 1977 118 0.998 0.197 0.333 3.132 0.217 0.071 18 484092 1843 1977 135 0.998 0.217 0.340 2.910 0.236 0.054 19 484101 1800 1977 178 1.000 0.224 1.215 7.197 0.224 -0.026 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 484102 1811 1977 167 0.999 0.273 1.053 3.917 0.217 0.378 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 0.998 0.226 0.693 4.714 0.207 0.261 STANDARD DEVIATION 34 0.001 0.033 0.528 1.927 0.022 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 0.999 0.223 0.579 4.453 0.208 0.322 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.001 0.051 0.735 2.026 0.036 0.258 MINIMUM VALUE 97 0.996 0.164 -0.138 2.910 0.175 -0.026 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 145 0.998 0.201 0.333 3.202 0.185 0.126 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 191 0.999 0.253 1.069 5.228 0.221 0.384 MAXIMUM VALUE 236 1.000 0.290 1.950 10.549 0.244 0.444 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.271 0.119 0.009 0.183 3.205 -0.020 0.703 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.020 SERIES 484031 AND 484042 169 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.703 SERIES 484091 AND 484092 118 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 36. 91. 153. 171. 190. 190. RBAR 0.028 0.138 0.306 0.341 0.351 0.240 0.232 SDEV 0.106 0.163 0.176 0.162 0.151 0.174 0.208 SERR 0.061 0.027 0.018 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.204 0.694 0.884 0.909 0.915 0.863 0.858 NSS 8.9 14.2 17.3 19.2 19.9 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1977 236 0.984 0.153 0.545 3.353 0.166 0.084 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.244 0.128 0.039 74 162 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.52 0.97 1.00 1.16 2.13 4.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.85 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.084 0.012 -0.027 0.061 -0.028 -0.035 0.069 -0.012 0.048 -0.036 PACF 0.084 0.005 -0.029 0.066 -0.039 -0.032 0.081 -0.031 0.053 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.037 0.061 0.047 0.042 0.021 0.020 0.115 0.022 0.041 -0.060 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.037 2 0.035 0.060 3 0.033 0.058 0.043 4 0.031 0.056 0.042 0.036 5 0.031 0.056 0.041 0.035 0.013 6 0.030 0.055 0.041 0.035 0.013 0.012 7 0.029 0.054 0.037 0.030 0.007 0.009 0.109 8 0.028 0.054 0.037 0.030 0.007 0.008 0.109 0.011 9 0.028 0.051 0.037 0.030 0.006 0.007 0.108 0.010 0.025 10 0.030 0.052 0.045 0.030 0.006 0.010 0.110 0.014 0.028 -0.075 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1615.59 1617.26 1618.42 1619.98 1621.67 1623.63 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1625.60 1624.76 1626.73 1628.58 1629.23 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 484011 0 0.121 2 484012 0 0.008 3 484021 0 0.152 4 484022 0 0.043 5 484031 0 0.115 6 484032 0 0.164 7 484041 0 0.187 8 484042 0 0.199 9 484051 0 0.027 10 484052 0 0.000 11 484061 0 0.124 12 484062 0 0.180 13 484071 0 0.124 14 484072 0 0.055 15 484081 0 0.094 16 484082 0 0.088 17 484091 0 0.005 18 484092 0 0.003 19 484101 0 0.001 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 484102 0 0.144 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.092 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.069 MEDIAN 0 0.104 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.131 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.018 UPPER HINGE 0 0.148 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.199 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 484011 1795 1977 183 1.000 0.223 1.084 5.177 0.190 0.348 2 484012 1778 1977 200 1.000 0.191 0.607 4.627 0.193 0.088 3 484021 1766 1977 212 1.000 0.258 1.287 6.077 0.225 0.390 4 484022 1839 1977 139 1.000 0.224 1.950 10.549 0.209 0.206 5 484031 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.247 0.420 3.793 0.217 0.338 6 484032 1792 1977 186 1.000 0.264 0.144 4.694 0.216 0.402 7 484041 1793 1977 185 1.000 0.290 -0.138 5.278 0.240 0.429 8 484042 1809 1977 169 1.000 0.223 0.333 2.928 0.185 0.444 9 484051 1841 1977 137 1.000 0.203 0.551 3.272 0.202 0.164 10 484052 1881 1977 97 1.000 0.164 0.250 3.129 0.185 0.006 11 484061 1781 1977 197 1.000 0.223 0.672 3.011 0.184 0.346 12 484062 1808 1977 170 1.000 0.221 0.816 4.279 0.179 0.405 13 484071 1742 1977 236 1.000 0.268 0.971 4.644 0.243 0.349 14 484072 1826 1977 152 1.000 0.180 0.535 3.420 0.175 0.227 15 484081 1801 1977 177 1.000 0.238 1.426 7.570 0.207 0.307 16 484082 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.200 0.006 4.672 0.182 0.297 17 484091 1860 1977 118 1.000 0.197 0.333 3.132 0.217 0.071 18 484092 1843 1977 135 1.000 0.217 0.340 2.910 0.235 0.054 19 484101 1800 1977 178 1.000 0.224 1.215 7.197 0.224 -0.026 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 484102 1811 1977 167 1.000 0.273 1.053 3.917 0.217 0.378 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.226 0.693 4.714 0.206 0.261 STANDARD DEVIATION 34 0.000 0.033 0.528 1.927 0.021 0.151 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 173 1.000 0.223 0.579 4.453 0.208 0.322 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 46 0.000 0.051 0.735 2.026 0.036 0.258 MINIMUM VALUE 97 1.000 0.164 -0.138 2.910 0.175 -0.026 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 145 1.000 0.201 0.333 3.202 0.185 0.126 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 191 1.000 0.253 1.069 5.228 0.221 0.384 MAXIMUM VALUE 236 1.000 0.290 1.950 10.549 0.243 0.444 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.271 0.119 0.009 0.183 3.205 -0.020 0.703 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.020 SERIES 484031 AND 484042 169 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.703 SERIES 484091 AND 484092 118 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 3. 36. 91. 153. 171. 190. 190. RBAR 0.028 0.138 0.306 0.341 0.351 0.240 0.232 SDEV 0.106 0.163 0.176 0.162 0.151 0.174 0.208 SERR 0.061 0.027 0.018 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.204 0.694 0.884 0.909 0.915 0.863 0.858 NSS 8.9 14.2 17.3 19.2 19.9 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1977 236 0.986 0.153 0.548 3.357 0.166 0.084 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.244 0.128 0.039 76 160 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.52 0.95 1.00 1.16 2.11 4.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.85 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.083 0.012 -0.028 0.061 -0.029 -0.035 0.069 -0.013 0.048 -0.037 PACF 0.083 0.005 -0.030 0.067 -0.039 -0.032 0.081 -0.032 0.053 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1742 1977 236 0.986 0.153 0.548 3.357 0.166 0.084 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.083 0.012 -0.028 0.061 -0.029 -0.035 0.069 -0.013 0.048 -0.037 PACF 0.083 0.005 -0.030 0.067 -0.039 -0.032 0.081 -0.032 0.053 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES