RUN: FRAN002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN027N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN027N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 629 1 Col de Sorba, Mt.Renoso DENSITY_MINIMUM PINI - 629 2 France Austrian pine, black pine 1400 4204-912 1518 1980 - 629 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 629012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1969 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 629021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1919 1919 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 629051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 629052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1920 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 629061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 629062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 629071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1774 1778 / 1849 1853 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 629072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1839 1839 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 629081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1920 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 629082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1920 1920 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 629091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1664 1665 / 1707 1707 / 1720 1720 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 629092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 4 GAPS / 1542 1546 / 1551 1555 / 1651 1651 / 1805 1809 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 629111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 4 GAPS / 1575 1575 / 1730 1730 / 1816 1820 / 1945 1947 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 629112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 4 GAPS / 1575 1575 / 1614 1618 / 1733 1734 / 1944 1948 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 629131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1857 1858 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 629132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1855 1856 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 629142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1823 1823 / 1923 1923 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 629162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1803 1804 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 629011 1865 1980 116 0.361 0.029 0.249 2.805 0.061 0.550 2 629012 1834 1980 147 0.324 0.029 1.225 6.548 0.060 0.626 3 629021 1872 1980 109 0.372 0.036 0.732 3.655 0.065 0.632 4 629022 1868 1980 113 0.391 0.037 0.854 5.430 0.077 0.423 5 629031 1854 1980 127 0.343 0.020 0.471 3.538 0.053 0.352 6 629032 1852 1980 129 0.348 0.024 0.291 2.883 0.051 0.540 7 629041 1857 1980 124 0.395 0.036 0.883 4.563 0.071 0.518 8 629042 1853 1980 128 0.370 0.030 0.628 2.847 0.055 0.651 9 629051 1862 1980 119 0.403 0.037 -0.292 3.266 0.070 0.555 10 629052 1853 1980 128 0.383 0.048 0.128 2.291 0.078 0.648 11 629061 1848 1980 133 0.322 0.033 0.219 2.376 0.055 0.729 12 629062 1848 1980 133 0.306 0.027 0.209 2.784 0.066 0.504 13 629071 1767 1980 214 0.363 0.027 0.304 4.191 0.066 0.276 14 629072 1788 1980 193 0.355 0.026 0.283 3.606 0.056 0.540 15 629081 1830 1980 151 0.367 0.030 0.533 3.783 0.060 0.460 16 629082 1841 1980 140 0.376 0.029 0.317 3.207 0.065 0.481 17 629091 1526 1836 311 0.334 0.032 0.394 9.466 0.068 0.467 18 629092 1541 1890 350 0.350 0.030 0.128 4.031 0.072 0.441 19 629111 1518 1980 463 0.352 0.032 -0.771 12.398 0.056 0.561 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 629112 1547 1980 434 0.379 0.035 0.143 2.584 0.055 0.703 21 629121 1689 1980 292 0.344 0.026 0.197 3.381 0.068 0.361 22 629122 1791 1980 190 0.374 0.034 0.260 2.628 0.064 0.626 23 629131 1634 1980 347 0.366 0.036 0.472 4.100 0.063 0.630 24 629132 1622 1980 359 0.369 0.052 0.480 3.013 0.065 0.815 25 629141 1700 1943 244 0.356 0.040 1.084 5.665 0.062 0.740 26 629142 1711 1943 233 0.361 0.031 0.709 4.237 0.061 0.495 27 629151 1771 1980 210 0.415 0.046 -0.471 2.702 0.076 0.600 28 629152 1761 1980 220 0.402 0.042 -0.430 3.729 0.083 0.464 29 629161 1722 1980 259 0.368 0.029 -0.370 6.510 0.062 0.372 30 629162 1763 1980 218 0.390 0.032 -0.129 2.945 0.063 0.537 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 30 FROM 1518 TO 1980 463 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 209 0.365 0.033 0.291 4.172 0.064 0.543 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.025 0.007 0.459 2.185 0.008 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 0.367 0.032 0.287 3.572 0.063 0.540 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 131 0.029 0.007 0.404 1.390 0.009 0.166 MINIMUM VALUE 108 0.306 0.020 -0.771 2.291 0.051 0.276 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 0.350 0.029 0.128 2.847 0.060 0.464 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 0.379 0.036 0.533 4.237 0.068 0.630 MAXIMUM VALUE 453 0.415 0.052 1.225 12.398 0.083 0.815 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 420 0.081 0.199 0.010 -0.162 3.062 -0.563 0.599 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.563 SERIES 629042 AND 629092 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.599 SERIES 629051 AND 629052 119 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.55 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 30.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 15. 15. 21. 36. 45. 78. RBAR 0.216 0.098 0.016 -0.029 0.144 0.125 0.008 0.230 0.168 0.039 SDEV 0.187 0.348 0.219 0.227 0.232 0.373 0.223 0.202 0.211 0.231 SERR 0.108 0.142 0.089 0.093 0.060 0.096 0.049 0.034 0.031 0.026 EPS 0.522 0.304 0.072 -0.191 0.508 0.507 0.069 0.756 0.718 0.379 NSS 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.1 7.2 9.0 10.3 12.6 15.2 YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 105. 105. 136. 351. 325. 325. RBAR 0.058 0.103 0.155 0.112 0.120 0.134 SDEV 0.214 0.197 0.196 0.254 0.202 0.216 SERR 0.021 0.019 0.017 0.014 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.503 0.700 0.828 0.782 0.792 0.807 NSS 16.4 20.2 26.2 28.4 28.0 27.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1518 1980 463 0.362 0.015 -0.009 3.555 0.035 0.432 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.123 0.116 -0.005 88 375 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.89 1.00 1.08 1.97 9999.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 192. 131. 109. 128. 259. 463. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.431 0.367 0.266 0.255 0.224 0.146 0.112 0.070 0.037 0.086 PACF 0.431 0.222 0.062 0.089 0.058 -0.035 -0.015 -0.024 -0.033 0.073 95% C.L. 0.093 0.109 0.119 0.124 0.129 0.132 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.249 0.313 0.188 0.041 0.098 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 629011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020674 0.34894001 2 629012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020807 0.30902261 3 629021 1 0.18795048 0.00489023 0.00000000 0.22647752 4 629022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004533 0.38803571 5 629031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002490 0.34100488 6 629032 1 0.02175671 0.10425511 0.00000000 0.34668222 7 629041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047314 0.36542881 8 629042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010378 0.37692791 9 629051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050310 0.37307280 10 629052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00086658 0.32693431 11 629061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055492 0.28528151 12 629062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003848 0.30359352 13 629071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005381 0.35727653 14 629072 1 0.04461816 0.02815693 0.00000000 0.34659135 15 629081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00034016 0.34119928 16 629082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009255 0.36923632 17 629091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005063 0.32648513 18 629092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003218 0.34484974 19 629111 1 0.06738766 0.02683605 0.00000000 0.34641865 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 629112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014827 0.41101208 21 629121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002628 0.33981431 22 629122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019359 0.35540685 23 629131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015125 0.39230797 24 629132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029381 0.42144942 25 629141 1 0.07299598 0.00523219 0.00000000 0.31466356 26 629142 1 0.02726940 0.05442970 0.00000000 0.35869932 27 629151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045295 0.46273911 28 629152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024631 0.42880821 29 629161 1 0.02706197 0.02786442 0.00000000 0.36391121 30 629162 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017658 0.40936831 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 629011 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.077 0.198 3.044 0.061 0.515 2 629012 1834 1980 147 1.000 0.086 1.337 6.844 0.061 0.554 3 629021 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.075 0.273 4.946 0.063 0.399 4 629022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.095 0.867 5.489 0.076 0.419 5 629031 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.058 0.457 3.507 0.053 0.348 6 629032 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.067 0.391 3.029 0.051 0.535 7 629041 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.080 0.724 3.626 0.070 0.377 8 629042 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.081 0.417 2.664 0.055 0.633 9 629051 1862 1980 119 1.000 0.081 0.478 3.850 0.070 0.396 10 629052 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.092 0.940 3.563 0.079 0.363 11 629061 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.081 1.390 5.510 0.055 0.589 12 629062 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.089 0.261 2.798 0.066 0.512 13 629071 1767 1980 214 1.000 0.073 0.267 4.117 0.066 0.289 14 629072 1788 1980 193 1.000 0.067 0.190 3.992 0.056 0.463 15 629081 1830 1980 151 1.000 0.071 0.777 6.437 0.060 0.310 16 629082 1841 1980 140 1.000 0.076 0.299 3.354 0.065 0.469 17 629091 1526 1836 311 1.000 0.095 0.203 9.008 0.068 0.444 18 629092 1541 1890 350 1.000 0.084 0.005 3.925 0.071 0.429 19 629111 1518 1980 463 1.000 0.084 -1.039 16.289 0.056 0.486 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 629112 1547 1980 434 1.000 0.080 0.462 3.434 0.055 0.587 21 629121 1689 1980 292 1.000 0.075 0.143 3.239 0.068 0.354 22 629122 1791 1980 190 1.000 0.088 0.766 3.670 0.063 0.599 23 629131 1634 1980 347 1.000 0.089 0.840 5.999 0.063 0.548 24 629132 1622 1980 359 1.000 0.114 0.901 4.533 0.065 0.714 25 629141 1700 1943 244 1.000 0.103 1.129 5.731 0.062 0.689 26 629142 1711 1943 233 1.000 0.085 0.753 4.595 0.061 0.485 27 629151 1771 1980 210 1.000 0.090 0.057 3.280 0.076 0.376 28 629152 1761 1980 220 1.000 0.096 -0.523 4.231 0.083 0.348 29 629161 1722 1980 259 1.000 0.078 -0.347 6.664 0.062 0.350 30 629162 1763 1980 218 1.000 0.076 -0.140 2.537 0.062 0.488 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.083 0.416 4.797 0.064 0.469 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.011 0.530 2.633 0.008 0.112 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 1.000 0.081 0.404 3.959 0.063 0.466 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 131 0.000 0.013 0.587 2.156 0.008 0.172 MINIMUM VALUE 109 1.000 0.058 -1.039 2.537 0.051 0.289 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.076 0.190 3.354 0.060 0.376 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.089 0.777 5.510 0.068 0.548 MAXIMUM VALUE 463 1.000 0.114 1.390 16.289 0.083 0.714 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 629011 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 629012 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 629021 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 629022 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 629031 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 629032 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 629041 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 629042 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 629051 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 629052 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 629061 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 629062 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 629071 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 629072 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 629081 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 629082 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 629091 -67 208 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 629092 -67 234 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 629111 -67 310 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 629112 -67 290 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 629121 -67 195 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 629122 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 629131 -67 232 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 629132 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 629141 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 629142 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 629151 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 629152 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 629161 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 629162 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 629011 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.075 0.050 2.972 0.061 0.477 2 629012 1834 1980 147 1.000 0.072 0.942 5.852 0.061 0.374 3 629021 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.070 -0.043 4.615 0.063 0.312 4 629022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.084 0.552 5.234 0.076 0.273 5 629031 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.055 0.654 4.231 0.053 0.261 6 629032 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.062 0.219 2.658 0.051 0.465 7 629041 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.074 0.694 3.948 0.070 0.279 8 629042 1853 1980 128 0.999 0.064 0.460 2.815 0.055 0.423 9 629051 1862 1980 119 1.000 0.071 0.541 3.961 0.069 0.216 10 629052 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.081 0.651 2.977 0.078 0.199 11 629061 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.071 1.043 5.165 0.055 0.474 12 629062 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.075 0.019 2.932 0.066 0.339 13 629071 1767 1980 214 1.000 0.071 0.294 3.914 0.066 0.262 14 629072 1788 1980 193 1.000 0.064 0.078 3.900 0.056 0.416 15 629081 1830 1980 151 1.000 0.070 0.914 6.714 0.060 0.291 16 629082 1841 1980 140 1.000 0.071 0.127 3.016 0.065 0.378 17 629091 1526 1836 311 1.000 0.092 0.254 9.710 0.068 0.407 18 629092 1541 1890 350 1.000 0.083 0.003 3.843 0.071 0.414 19 629111 1518 1980 463 1.000 0.080 -1.230 18.794 0.056 0.437 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 629112 1547 1980 434 1.000 0.074 0.410 3.571 0.055 0.520 21 629121 1689 1980 292 1.000 0.069 0.283 3.146 0.068 0.234 22 629122 1791 1980 190 1.000 0.070 0.364 3.152 0.063 0.364 23 629131 1634 1980 347 1.000 0.088 0.937 6.327 0.063 0.532 24 629132 1622 1980 359 1.000 0.107 0.702 4.366 0.065 0.675 25 629141 1700 1943 244 0.999 0.088 0.986 6.028 0.062 0.576 26 629142 1711 1943 233 1.000 0.082 0.868 4.776 0.061 0.457 27 629151 1771 1980 210 1.000 0.088 -0.040 3.425 0.076 0.342 28 629152 1761 1980 220 1.000 0.092 -0.404 4.767 0.083 0.299 29 629161 1722 1980 259 1.000 0.076 -0.323 7.093 0.062 0.309 30 629162 1763 1980 218 1.000 0.073 0.063 2.669 0.062 0.429 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.076 0.335 4.886 0.064 0.381 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.011 0.493 3.072 0.008 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 1.000 0.074 0.329 3.955 0.063 0.376 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 131 0.000 0.013 0.643 2.088 0.008 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 109 0.999 0.055 -1.230 2.658 0.051 0.199 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.070 0.050 3.146 0.060 0.291 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.083 0.694 5.234 0.068 0.457 MAXIMUM VALUE 463 1.000 0.107 1.043 18.794 0.083 0.675 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 420 0.113 0.133 0.006 -0.572 6.032 -0.580 0.521 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.580 SERIES 629042 AND 629092 38 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.521 SERIES 629051 AND 629092 29 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.55 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 30.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 15. 15. 21. 36. 45. 78. RBAR 0.192 0.092 0.001 -0.037 0.143 0.131 0.003 0.225 0.175 0.032 SDEV 0.159 0.318 0.223 0.227 0.226 0.363 0.233 0.201 0.196 0.219 SERR 0.092 0.130 0.091 0.092 0.058 0.094 0.051 0.033 0.029 0.025 EPS 0.485 0.288 0.005 -0.255 0.504 0.520 0.026 0.751 0.727 0.334 NSS 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.1 7.2 9.0 10.3 12.6 15.2 YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 105. 105. 136. 351. 325. 325. RBAR 0.047 0.105 0.173 0.140 0.133 0.154 SDEV 0.187 0.195 0.187 0.205 0.192 0.175 SERR 0.018 0.019 0.016 0.011 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.449 0.704 0.846 0.822 0.811 0.830 NSS 16.4 20.2 26.2 28.4 28.0 27.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1518 1980 463 0.996 0.037 -0.073 3.046 0.036 0.204 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.059 0.043 0.021 139 324 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.77 1.00 1.08 1.85 388.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.203 0.227 0.128 0.154 0.104 0.046 0.018 0.013 -0.006 -0.016 PACF 0.203 0.194 0.056 0.088 0.035 -0.028 -0.029 -0.011 -0.019 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.093 0.097 0.101 0.103 0.105 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.106 0.106 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.080 0.164 0.194 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.115 0.142 0.036 0.044 0.081 -0.022 0.025 0.038 0.010 0.104 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.115 2 0.100 0.130 3 0.099 0.130 0.007 4 0.099 0.127 0.004 0.022 5 0.097 0.126 -0.005 0.015 0.071 6 0.101 0.127 -0.005 0.021 0.076 -0.047 7 0.101 0.126 -0.005 0.021 0.074 -0.048 0.011 8 0.101 0.128 -0.008 0.020 0.075 -0.054 0.007 0.042 9 0.101 0.128 -0.009 0.021 0.075 -0.054 0.008 0.043 -0.007 10 0.102 0.124 -0.009 0.026 0.068 -0.056 0.009 0.031 -0.016 0.093 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2243.27 2239.12 2233.19 2235.17 2236.94 2236.59 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2237.55 2239.49 2240.66 2242.64 2240.59 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.100 0.130 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.00 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.09 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.100 0.140 0.027 0.021 0.006 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 629011 2 0.233 0.485 -0.006 2 629012 2 0.154 0.330 0.123 3 629021 2 0.108 0.292 0.066 4 629022 2 0.085 0.259 0.051 5 629031 2 0.090 0.222 0.148 6 629032 2 0.229 0.423 0.096 7 629041 2 0.096 0.241 0.138 8 629042 2 0.212 0.351 0.169 9 629051 2 0.079 0.182 0.171 10 629052 2 0.115 0.160 0.200 11 629061 2 0.262 0.376 0.207 12 629062 2 0.253 0.221 0.352 13 629071 2 0.105 0.217 0.184 14 629072 2 0.220 0.337 0.211 15 629081 2 0.118 0.244 0.161 16 629082 2 0.197 0.284 0.250 17 629091 2 0.246 0.292 0.282 18 629092 2 0.214 0.335 0.191 19 629111 2 0.257 0.327 0.252 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 629112 2 0.307 0.411 0.210 21 629121 2 0.068 0.210 0.104 22 629122 2 0.185 0.300 0.180 23 629131 2 0.297 0.462 0.132 24 629132 2 0.520 0.450 0.334 25 629141 2 0.358 0.464 0.196 26 629142 2 0.224 0.409 0.115 27 629151 2 0.124 0.315 0.080 28 629152 2 0.118 0.255 0.164 29 629161 2 0.121 0.284 0.081 30 629162 2 0.223 0.351 0.188 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.194 0.316 0.168 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.099 0.089 0.079 MEDIAN 2 0.205 0.308 0.170 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.131 0.132 0.092 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.068 0.160 -0.006 LOWER HINGE 2 0.115 0.244 0.115 UPPER HINGE 2 0.246 0.376 0.207 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.520 0.485 0.352 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 629011 1865 1980 116 1.000 0.065 -0.001 2.705 0.072 -0.005 2 629012 1834 1980 147 1.000 0.066 0.596 5.055 0.072 -0.003 3 629021 1872 1980 109 1.000 0.066 -0.443 4.409 0.073 -0.007 4 629022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.081 0.589 5.897 0.088 -0.005 5 629031 1854 1980 127 1.000 0.052 0.660 3.948 0.059 -0.006 6 629032 1852 1980 129 1.000 0.054 -0.022 2.805 0.062 -0.007 7 629041 1857 1980 124 1.000 0.070 0.798 4.471 0.079 0.001 8 629042 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.057 0.368 3.144 0.066 -0.019 9 629051 1862 1980 119 1.000 0.068 0.505 3.634 0.075 0.005 10 629052 1853 1980 128 1.000 0.078 0.652 3.019 0.086 -0.040 11 629061 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.061 0.686 4.880 0.066 -0.016 12 629062 1848 1980 133 1.000 0.066 -0.173 3.677 0.075 -0.067 13 629071 1767 1980 214 1.000 0.068 0.112 4.379 0.073 -0.011 14 629072 1788 1980 193 1.000 0.057 0.240 3.144 0.065 0.009 15 629081 1830 1980 151 1.000 0.066 0.322 6.514 0.069 0.017 16 629082 1841 1980 140 1.000 0.063 0.081 2.516 0.073 0.003 17 629091 1526 1836 311 1.000 0.081 -0.321 11.623 0.080 -0.045 18 629092 1541 1890 350 1.000 0.074 -0.084 3.965 0.083 -0.024 19 629111 1518 1980 463 1.000 0.069 -1.783 26.813 0.066 -0.035 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 629112 1547 1980 434 1.000 0.062 -0.252 5.013 0.068 -0.016 21 629121 1689 1980 292 1.000 0.067 0.054 2.822 0.076 -0.006 22 629122 1791 1980 190 1.000 0.064 0.326 3.151 0.075 -0.031 23 629131 1634 1980 347 1.000 0.074 0.603 4.915 0.080 -0.005 24 629132 1622 1980 359 1.000 0.074 0.319 4.536 0.080 -0.026 25 629141 1700 1943 244 1.000 0.070 0.458 4.094 0.077 -0.003 26 629142 1711 1943 233 1.000 0.072 0.664 4.991 0.077 -0.007 27 629151 1771 1980 210 1.000 0.082 -0.222 3.889 0.089 -0.002 28 629152 1761 1980 220 1.000 0.087 -0.390 4.954 0.093 -0.006 29 629161 1722 1980 259 1.000 0.072 0.216 8.419 0.071 -0.012 30 629162 1763 1980 218 1.000 0.064 0.031 3.043 0.074 -0.017 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 211 1.000 0.068 0.153 5.214 0.075 -0.013 STANDARD DEVIATION 100 0.000 0.008 0.512 4.477 0.008 0.017 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 1.000 0.067 0.228 4.236 0.074 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 131 0.000 0.009 0.673 1.847 0.011 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 109 1.000 0.052 -1.783 2.516 0.059 -0.067 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 128 1.000 0.064 -0.084 3.144 0.069 -0.019 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 259 1.000 0.074 0.589 4.991 0.080 -0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 463 1.000 0.087 0.798 26.813 0.093 0.017 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 420 0.164 0.111 0.005 -0.389 4.937 -0.410 0.450 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.410 SERIES 629061 AND 629092 43 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.450 SERIES 629052 AND 629071 128 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 96.55 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 30.19 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1570. 1595. 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. CORR 3. 6. 6. 6. 15. 15. 21. 36. 45. 78. RBAR 0.137 0.144 0.070 0.043 0.150 0.147 0.134 0.230 0.186 0.061 SDEV 0.204 0.288 0.244 0.277 0.241 0.315 0.159 0.173 0.171 0.160 SERR 0.118 0.118 0.100 0.113 0.062 0.081 0.035 0.029 0.025 0.018 EPS 0.386 0.402 0.260 0.204 0.519 0.554 0.583 0.755 0.742 0.498 NSS 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.1 7.2 9.0 10.3 12.6 15.2 YEAR 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 105. 105. 136. 351. 325. 325. RBAR 0.069 0.117 0.180 0.179 0.193 0.221 SDEV 0.160 0.161 0.159 0.154 0.160 0.150 SERR 0.016 0.016 0.014 0.008 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.550 0.729 0.851 0.861 0.870 0.885 NSS 16.4 20.2 26.2 28.4 28.0 27.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1518 1980 463 0.998 0.033 -0.035 2.933 0.039 -0.129 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.054 0.039 0.014 142 321 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 1.04 1.00 1.11 2.15 77.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.129 -0.079 0.005 0.026 0.005 -0.024 -0.006 0.036 -0.061 -0.025 PACF -0.129 -0.097 -0.019 0.017 0.011 -0.019 -0.011 0.030 -0.055 -0.035 95% C.L. 0.093 0.094 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.095 0.096 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.026 -0.141 -0.097 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.001 -0.015 0.020 0.005 -0.020 -0.010 0.023 -0.061 -0.023 PACF -0.002 -0.001 -0.015 0.019 0.005 -0.020 -0.010 0.022 -0.062 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 -0.002 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1518 1980 463 0.998 0.034 -0.109 2.854 0.035 0.111 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.111 0.142 0.016 0.036 0.007 -0.014 -0.017 0.010 -0.062 -0.023 PACF 0.111 0.131 -0.013 0.018 0.002 -0.023 -0.015 0.018 -0.063 -0.014 95% C.L. 0.093 0.094 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.029 0.097 0.131 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.40 MINUTES