RUN: FRAN002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN028N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN028N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 480 1 Le Tournairet DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 480 2 France Norway spruce 2050 4352-720 1715 1977 - 480 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 5 480041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1781 1787 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 480061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 2 GAPS / 1948 1954 / 1967 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 480071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1751 1756 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 480091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1877 1882 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 480092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1795 1799 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 480152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1792 1796 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 480021 1813 1977 165 0.288 0.022 1.442 9.943 0.062 0.237 2 480022 1813 1977 165 0.275 0.021 0.264 3.133 0.059 0.499 3 480031 1834 1977 144 0.310 0.020 0.195 3.363 0.055 0.401 4 480032 1857 1977 121 0.333 0.031 0.125 2.167 0.051 0.713 5 480041 1765 1977 213 0.252 0.026 1.063 5.369 0.059 0.659 6 480042 1778 1977 200 0.266 0.042 1.499 4.703 0.064 0.837 7 480051 1844 1977 134 0.283 0.033 1.932 7.839 0.058 0.734 8 480052 1866 1977 112 0.274 0.020 2.537 18.037 0.053 0.286 9 480061 1816 1977 162 0.255 0.021 1.870 13.201 0.057 0.380 10 480062 1825 1977 153 0.239 0.014 0.096 2.565 0.052 0.362 11 480071 1739 1977 239 0.320 0.032 0.174 2.136 0.062 0.701 12 480072 1817 1977 161 0.332 0.041 1.860 8.313 0.077 0.554 13 480081 1842 1977 136 0.296 0.024 0.218 2.775 0.058 0.539 14 480082 1841 1977 137 0.280 0.036 0.595 2.648 0.053 0.830 15 480091 1757 1977 221 0.270 0.036 1.228 6.771 0.070 0.638 16 480092 1772 1977 206 0.256 0.022 0.819 4.371 0.068 0.388 17 480101 1802 1977 176 0.321 0.027 -0.053 2.811 0.059 0.538 18 480102 1760 1977 218 0.310 0.029 0.789 4.047 0.071 0.521 19 480111 1759 1977 219 0.289 0.023 0.392 3.518 0.071 0.299 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 480112 1749 1977 229 0.312 0.020 0.323 2.984 0.064 0.149 21 480131 1715 1977 263 0.330 0.036 1.507 7.498 0.069 0.620 22 480132 1715 1977 263 0.320 0.033 0.688 5.074 0.076 0.464 23 480141 1750 1977 228 0.281 0.022 0.628 4.290 0.060 0.471 24 480142 1732 1977 246 0.284 0.025 0.897 4.073 0.056 0.662 25 480151 1786 1977 192 0.280 0.020 0.869 5.865 0.059 0.339 26 480152 1787 1977 191 0.271 0.024 1.036 4.380 0.065 0.511 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1715 TO 1977 263 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 187 0.290 0.027 0.884 5.457 0.062 0.513 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.027 0.007 0.682 3.680 0.007 0.180 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 189 0.284 0.024 0.804 4.330 0.060 0.516 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 71 0.041 0.012 1.178 3.787 0.011 0.278 MINIMUM VALUE 112 0.239 0.014 -0.053 2.136 0.051 0.149 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 148 0.271 0.021 0.264 2.984 0.057 0.380 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 219 0.312 0.033 1.442 6.771 0.068 0.659 MAXIMUM VALUE 263 0.333 0.042 2.537 18.037 0.077 0.837 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.292 0.200 0.011 -0.248 2.632 -0.298 0.764 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.298 SERIES 480041 AND 480051 134 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.764 SERIES 480042 AND 480142 200 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 6. 45. 91. 171. 276. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.860 0.640 0.437 0.444 0.377 0.245 0.411 0.385 0.345 SDEV 0.000 0.123 0.201 0.155 0.215 0.222 0.222 0.232 0.248 SERR 0.000 0.050 0.030 0.016 0.016 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.963 0.945 0.915 0.935 0.932 0.891 0.948 0.942 0.932 NSS 4.2 9.7 13.9 18.1 22.6 25.3 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1715 1977 263 0.294 0.027 2.548 11.905 0.051 0.711 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.462 0.224 -0.032 29 234 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.64 1.00 1.07 1.71 546.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.38 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 192. 68. 112. 153. 221. 263. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.709 0.687 0.585 0.574 0.499 0.454 0.392 0.318 0.303 0.283 PACF 0.709 0.371 0.038 0.118 -0.008 -0.024 -0.033 -0.094 0.049 0.065 95% C.L. 0.123 0.175 0.212 0.235 0.255 0.270 0.281 0.289 0.295 0.299 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.640 0.299 0.318 0.074 0.205 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 480021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008583 0.28069401 2 480022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024561 0.25458390 3 480031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016303 0.29852757 4 480032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044459 0.36050826 5 480041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009417 0.24132730 6 480042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039681 0.22597034 7 480051 1 0.10018815 0.18830122 0.00000000 0.27922732 8 480052 1 0.05216405 0.16653101 0.00000000 0.27144751 9 480061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000665 0.25523439 10 480062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004275 0.24270381 11 480071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030844 0.28252262 12 480072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030461 0.30700389 13 480081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00015436 0.28508824 14 480082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018150 0.29259661 15 480091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020801 0.24617063 16 480092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012258 0.24367911 17 480101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027932 0.29590520 18 480102 1 0.05193140 0.05123436 0.00000000 0.30537695 19 480111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001987 0.29159188 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 480112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006513 0.30438751 21 480131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003084 0.32558703 22 480132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017002 0.29763329 23 480141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011682 0.26741365 24 480142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011413 0.27013206 25 480151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002824 0.28236037 26 480152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004934 0.26750770 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 480021 1813 1977 165 1.000 0.076 1.795 13.115 0.062 0.201 2 480022 1813 1977 165 1.000 0.064 0.464 3.557 0.059 0.278 3 480031 1834 1977 144 1.000 0.060 0.558 3.907 0.054 0.321 4 480032 1857 1977 121 1.000 0.079 0.055 2.687 0.051 0.594 5 480041 1765 1977 213 1.000 0.100 1.639 8.205 0.058 0.642 6 480042 1778 1977 200 1.000 0.128 1.431 5.139 0.064 0.757 7 480051 1844 1977 134 1.000 0.109 2.430 11.089 0.058 0.706 8 480052 1866 1977 112 1.000 0.064 0.789 7.361 0.053 0.151 9 480061 1816 1977 162 1.000 0.080 1.830 13.560 0.057 0.354 10 480062 1825 1977 153 1.000 0.057 -0.009 2.650 0.052 0.344 11 480071 1739 1977 239 1.000 0.075 -0.005 2.464 0.061 0.465 12 480072 1817 1977 161 1.000 0.116 1.809 8.456 0.077 0.497 13 480081 1842 1977 136 1.000 0.078 0.313 2.706 0.057 0.500 14 480082 1841 1977 137 1.000 0.126 0.594 2.802 0.053 0.817 15 480091 1757 1977 221 1.000 0.125 1.156 7.718 0.069 0.603 16 480092 1772 1977 206 1.000 0.079 0.592 4.330 0.068 0.299 17 480101 1802 1977 176 1.000 0.072 0.582 4.264 0.059 0.373 18 480102 1760 1977 218 1.000 0.087 0.966 4.936 0.071 0.455 19 480111 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.079 0.417 3.616 0.070 0.295 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 480112 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.061 0.377 2.974 0.064 0.112 21 480131 1715 1977 263 1.000 0.110 1.697 8.228 0.068 0.619 22 480132 1715 1977 263 1.000 0.096 0.835 4.735 0.076 0.389 23 480141 1750 1977 228 1.000 0.072 0.657 4.099 0.059 0.398 24 480142 1732 1977 246 1.000 0.082 1.104 4.828 0.056 0.608 25 480151 1786 1977 192 1.000 0.071 0.978 6.424 0.059 0.331 26 480152 1787 1977 191 1.000 0.090 1.159 4.745 0.065 0.533 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 188 1.000 0.086 0.931 5.715 0.062 0.448 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.021 0.643 3.157 0.007 0.184 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 1.000 0.079 0.812 4.740 0.059 0.426 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 68 0.000 0.028 0.967 4.161 0.011 0.282 MINIMUM VALUE 112 1.000 0.057 -0.009 2.464 0.051 0.112 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 153 1.000 0.072 0.464 3.557 0.057 0.321 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.100 1.431 7.718 0.068 0.603 MAXIMUM VALUE 263 1.000 0.128 2.430 13.560 0.077 0.817 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 480021 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 480022 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 480031 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 480032 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 480041 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 480042 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 480051 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 480052 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 480061 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 480062 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 480071 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 480072 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 480081 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 480082 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 480091 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 480092 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 480101 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 480102 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 480111 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 480112 -67 153 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 480131 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 480132 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 480141 -67 152 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 480142 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 480151 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 480152 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 480021 1813 1977 165 1.000 0.073 1.839 13.214 0.062 0.138 2 480022 1813 1977 165 1.000 0.061 0.422 3.225 0.059 0.207 3 480031 1834 1977 144 1.000 0.059 0.648 4.101 0.054 0.278 4 480032 1857 1977 121 0.999 0.068 -0.005 2.963 0.051 0.462 5 480041 1765 1977 213 0.999 0.081 1.022 5.517 0.058 0.510 6 480042 1778 1977 200 0.999 0.099 1.110 4.575 0.064 0.596 7 480051 1844 1977 134 1.000 0.099 2.081 9.270 0.058 0.654 8 480052 1866 1977 112 1.000 0.062 0.902 7.779 0.053 0.091 9 480061 1816 1977 162 1.000 0.072 2.325 16.596 0.057 0.212 10 480062 1825 1977 153 1.000 0.055 -0.113 2.672 0.052 0.300 11 480071 1739 1977 239 1.000 0.068 0.016 2.592 0.061 0.367 12 480072 1817 1977 161 1.000 0.110 1.602 7.632 0.077 0.446 13 480081 1842 1977 136 1.000 0.070 0.506 3.446 0.057 0.394 14 480082 1841 1977 137 0.999 0.079 0.333 3.953 0.053 0.583 15 480091 1757 1977 221 0.999 0.088 1.437 9.820 0.069 0.273 16 480092 1772 1977 206 1.000 0.077 0.705 4.581 0.068 0.258 17 480101 1802 1977 176 1.000 0.068 0.592 4.466 0.059 0.297 18 480102 1760 1977 218 1.000 0.081 1.188 5.973 0.071 0.367 19 480111 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.077 0.489 3.795 0.070 0.242 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 480112 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.060 0.377 2.857 0.064 0.063 21 480131 1715 1977 263 0.999 0.094 0.923 5.505 0.068 0.504 22 480132 1715 1977 263 1.000 0.088 0.575 4.571 0.076 0.291 23 480141 1750 1977 228 1.000 0.065 0.891 5.175 0.059 0.261 24 480142 1732 1977 246 1.000 0.073 0.781 3.958 0.056 0.512 25 480151 1786 1977 192 1.000 0.066 1.085 6.886 0.059 0.254 26 480152 1787 1977 191 1.000 0.069 0.577 3.322 0.065 0.283 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 188 1.000 0.075 0.858 5.709 0.062 0.340 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.014 0.614 3.368 0.007 0.155 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 1.000 0.072 0.743 4.573 0.059 0.294 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 68 0.000 0.015 0.621 3.440 0.011 0.208 MINIMUM VALUE 112 0.999 0.055 -0.113 2.592 0.051 0.063 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 153 1.000 0.066 0.489 3.446 0.057 0.254 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.081 1.110 6.886 0.068 0.462 MAXIMUM VALUE 263 1.000 0.110 2.325 16.596 0.077 0.654 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.337 0.149 0.008 -0.621 3.946 -0.147 0.777 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.147 SERIES 480041 AND 480051 134 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.777 SERIES 480131 AND 480132 263 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 6. 45. 91. 171. 276. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.858 0.657 0.466 0.460 0.388 0.259 0.392 0.427 0.385 SDEV 0.000 0.121 0.177 0.139 0.210 0.187 0.184 0.208 0.223 SERR 0.000 0.050 0.026 0.015 0.016 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.962 0.949 0.924 0.939 0.935 0.899 0.944 0.951 0.942 NSS 4.2 9.7 13.9 18.1 22.6 25.3 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1715 1977 263 0.999 0.063 0.771 4.867 0.054 0.393 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.209 0.076 -0.019 95 168 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.60 1.00 1.05 1.66 6.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.72 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.391 0.344 0.272 0.310 0.210 0.177 0.136 0.008 0.079 0.065 PACF 0.391 0.226 0.099 0.160 0.003 0.001 -0.008 -0.150 0.056 0.031 95% C.L. 0.123 0.141 0.153 0.160 0.169 0.173 0.176 0.178 0.178 0.178 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.241 0.248 0.165 0.068 0.188 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.233 0.119 0.173 0.170 0.034 0.050 -0.037 -0.113 -0.046 0.029 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.233 2 0.217 0.068 3 0.208 0.038 0.139 4 0.193 0.034 0.117 0.105 5 0.198 0.039 0.119 0.114 -0.047 6 0.199 0.038 0.117 0.114 -0.050 0.014 7 0.200 0.033 0.128 0.125 -0.046 0.033 -0.093 8 0.189 0.037 0.123 0.139 -0.031 0.037 -0.070 -0.118 9 0.189 0.037 0.123 0.139 -0.031 0.036 -0.070 -0.118 0.001 10 0.189 0.045 0.127 0.137 -0.029 0.027 -0.078 -0.121 -0.012 0.068 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1430.18 1417.49 1418.27 1415.11 1414.18 1415.60 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1417.55 1417.24 1415.54 1417.54 1418.34 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.233 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.43 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.74 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.233 0.054 0.013 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 480021 1 0.026 0.141 2 480022 1 0.048 0.207 3 480031 1 0.099 0.289 4 480032 1 0.286 0.466 5 480041 1 0.290 0.523 6 480042 1 0.395 0.597 7 480051 1 0.430 0.655 8 480052 1 0.022 0.096 9 480061 1 0.068 0.212 10 480062 1 0.095 0.306 11 480071 1 0.147 0.369 12 480072 1 0.200 0.447 13 480081 1 0.178 0.397 14 480082 1 0.366 0.584 15 480091 1 0.095 0.273 16 480092 1 0.112 0.258 17 480101 1 0.125 0.299 18 480102 1 0.178 0.369 19 480111 1 0.063 0.243 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 480112 1 0.006 0.063 21 480131 1 0.333 0.508 22 480132 1 0.162 0.291 23 480141 1 0.070 0.261 24 480142 1 0.337 0.524 25 480151 1 0.106 0.276 26 480152 1 0.087 0.287 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.166 0.344 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.125 0.155 MEDIAN 1 0.119 0.295 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.215 0.208 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.006 0.063 LOWER HINGE 1 0.070 0.258 UPPER HINGE 1 0.286 0.466 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.430 0.655 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 480021 1813 1977 165 1.000 0.072 2.045 14.550 0.066 -0.010 2 480022 1813 1977 165 1.000 0.060 0.596 3.581 0.065 0.015 3 480031 1834 1977 144 1.000 0.056 0.535 3.787 0.063 -0.045 4 480032 1857 1977 121 1.000 0.060 0.101 3.668 0.064 -0.134 5 480041 1765 1977 213 1.000 0.069 0.606 4.815 0.076 -0.085 6 480042 1778 1977 200 1.000 0.079 0.711 5.222 0.087 -0.147 7 480051 1844 1977 134 1.000 0.074 2.322 15.521 0.078 0.013 8 480052 1866 1977 112 1.000 0.062 1.117 8.846 0.056 -0.012 9 480061 1816 1977 162 1.000 0.071 2.677 19.176 0.065 -0.033 10 480062 1825 1977 153 1.000 0.053 0.185 2.686 0.060 -0.007 11 480071 1739 1977 239 1.000 0.064 0.106 2.738 0.075 -0.042 12 480072 1817 1977 161 1.000 0.098 0.745 6.354 0.095 -0.008 13 480081 1842 1977 136 1.000 0.064 0.563 3.913 0.071 -0.059 14 480082 1841 1977 137 1.000 0.064 0.298 3.658 0.071 -0.112 15 480091 1757 1977 221 1.000 0.085 2.072 14.041 0.082 -0.040 16 480092 1772 1977 206 1.000 0.075 1.031 5.652 0.081 -0.057 17 480101 1802 1977 176 1.000 0.065 0.378 4.127 0.070 -0.059 18 480102 1760 1977 218 1.000 0.075 0.746 3.920 0.085 -0.081 19 480111 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.075 0.526 4.140 0.081 -0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 480112 1749 1977 229 1.000 0.059 0.339 2.826 0.066 -0.003 21 480131 1715 1977 263 1.000 0.081 0.724 4.658 0.092 -0.159 22 480132 1715 1977 263 1.000 0.084 0.599 4.640 0.091 -0.083 23 480141 1750 1977 228 1.000 0.063 0.966 5.359 0.068 -0.013 24 480142 1732 1977 246 1.000 0.061 0.357 2.888 0.074 -0.163 25 480151 1786 1977 192 1.000 0.064 1.086 6.971 0.069 -0.026 26 480152 1787 1977 191 1.000 0.066 0.703 3.674 0.075 -0.024 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 188 1.000 0.069 0.851 6.208 0.074 -0.053 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.010 0.685 4.474 0.010 0.053 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 191 1.000 0.066 0.654 4.390 0.073 -0.041 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 68 0.000 0.013 0.653 2.686 0.015 0.071 MINIMUM VALUE 112 1.000 0.053 0.101 2.686 0.056 -0.163 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 153 1.000 0.062 0.378 3.668 0.066 -0.083 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 221 1.000 0.075 1.031 6.354 0.081 -0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 263 1.000 0.098 2.677 19.176 0.095 0.015 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.366 0.128 0.007 -0.096 3.569 -0.063 0.802 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.063 SERIES 480041 AND 480052 112 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.802 SERIES 480131 AND 480132 263 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.74 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1740. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 6. 45. 91. 171. 276. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.848 0.680 0.533 0.507 0.395 0.258 0.385 0.440 0.414 SDEV 0.000 0.100 0.135 0.123 0.204 0.178 0.146 0.148 0.188 SERR 0.000 0.041 0.020 0.013 0.016 0.011 0.008 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.959 0.954 0.941 0.949 0.937 0.898 0.942 0.953 0.948 NSS 4.2 9.7 13.9 18.1 22.6 25.3 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1715 1977 263 0.999 0.055 0.656 4.118 0.062 -0.074 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.195 0.061 -0.011 77 186 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.62 1.01 1.09 1.71 9.06 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.73 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.074 0.156 0.068 0.200 0.061 0.068 0.091 -0.095 0.067 0.021 PACF -0.074 0.151 0.092 0.195 0.075 0.020 0.053 -0.154 -0.012 0.024 95% C.L. 0.123 0.124 0.127 0.127 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.136 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.092 -0.119 0.117 0.104 0.222 0.094 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.011 0.157 0.095 0.212 0.082 0.081 0.090 -0.084 0.062 0.031 PACF 0.011 0.157 0.094 0.193 0.062 0.020 0.040 -0.157 0.002 0.027 95% C.L. 0.123 0.123 0.126 0.127 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.136 0.136 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.027 0.011 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1715 1977 263 0.999 0.058 0.738 4.292 0.053 0.286 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.285 0.245 0.195 0.263 0.159 0.128 0.099 -0.038 0.058 0.053 PACF 0.285 0.178 0.098 0.176 0.020 0.006 -0.001 -0.155 0.046 0.034 95% C.L. 0.123 0.133 0.140 0.144 0.151 0.153 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.156 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.159 0.190 0.128 0.069 0.198 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES