RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 039 1 Aubure (F), EU-Pr. WIDTH_EARLY PCAB - 039 2 France Norway spruce 1080 5334-800 1904 1994 - 039 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 20 039020 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1972 1972 / 1974 1974 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 2.002 0.612 0.926 3.807 0.192 0.634 2 039002 1908 1994 87 2.117 0.489 0.596 3.616 0.190 0.440 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.740 0.587 1.597 5.823 0.201 0.660 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.858 0.591 0.895 3.613 0.191 0.689 5 039005 1905 1994 90 2.079 1.076 0.874 3.091 0.230 0.876 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.829 1.108 0.801 2.939 0.280 0.890 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.459 1.050 0.849 2.814 0.332 0.892 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.556 1.149 0.964 2.878 0.294 0.920 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.927 1.274 1.488 4.304 0.221 0.926 10 039010 1907 1994 88 2.233 1.382 1.308 3.724 0.239 0.913 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.622 1.295 1.608 4.346 0.226 0.959 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.542 1.125 1.505 4.223 0.229 0.927 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.812 0.963 1.132 4.433 0.193 0.889 14 039014 1905 1994 90 2.364 0.882 1.148 5.890 0.205 0.776 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.415 0.846 2.265 8.631 0.217 0.893 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.428 0.894 1.816 7.304 0.222 0.879 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.546 1.266 1.698 4.851 0.279 0.907 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.824 1.071 1.424 4.202 0.251 0.881 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.116 0.904 1.910 5.752 0.250 0.884 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.090 1.130 1.733 4.844 0.350 0.952 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1904 TO 1994 91 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.728 0.985 1.327 4.554 0.240 0.839 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.343 0.258 0.446 1.507 0.046 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.776 1.061 1.366 4.263 0.228 0.889 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.464 0.276 0.743 1.687 0.062 0.090 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.090 0.489 0.596 2.814 0.190 0.440 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.501 0.864 0.910 3.615 0.203 0.826 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.964 1.140 1.653 5.301 0.265 0.916 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 2.364 1.382 2.265 8.631 0.350 0.959 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.738 0.193 0.014 -1.180 3.699 0.137 0.972 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.137 SERIES 039001 AND 039017 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.972 SERIES 039007 AND 039008 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.820 0.613 0.603 0.407 0.388 0.346 0.427 SDEV 0.080 0.228 0.201 0.262 0.254 0.326 0.297 SERR 0.033 0.017 0.015 0.019 0.018 0.024 0.022 EPS 0.988 0.969 0.968 0.932 0.927 0.914 0.937 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 1.717 0.894 1.347 4.202 0.160 0.929 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.650 0.138 0.381 18 73 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.34 1.01 1.04 1.38 1.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.77 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 90. 2. 87. 88. 90. 91. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.919 0.873 0.819 0.772 0.715 0.658 0.603 0.563 0.508 0.462 PACF 0.919 0.178 -0.029 0.011 -0.079 -0.065 -0.018 0.066 -0.085 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.210 0.344 0.430 0.494 0.545 0.584 0.616 0.641 0.663 0.680 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.865 0.698 0.245 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00484745 2.21547174 2 039002 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00907833 2.51599836 3 039003 1 1.60825109 0.04940933 0.00000000 1.37965500 4 039004 1 1.50345004 0.10685957 0.00000000 1.70494592 5 039005 1 3.74394536 0.02226749 0.00000000 0.48050141 6 039006 1 4.15613174 0.02233637 0.00000000 0.05802459 7 039007 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 039008 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 039009 1 4.46075153 0.04693135 0.00000000 0.88862991 10 039010 1 4.78457499 0.03840244 0.00000000 0.89105427 11 039011 1 4.85190725 0.05116674 0.00000000 0.58392620 12 039012 1 4.09092522 0.04412621 0.00000000 0.53272069 13 039013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03219936 3.27684903 14 039014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02417113 3.46367550 15 039015 1 2.80065441 0.04817250 0.00000000 0.79316980 16 039016 1 3.11524296 0.02435270 0.00000000 0.18034539 17 039017 1 4.37023115 0.05793006 0.00000000 0.74518418 18 039018 1 3.77231455 0.03885982 0.00000000 0.80806184 19 039019 1 3.43131948 0.05403166 0.00000000 0.44173762 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 1 4.16354227 0.04512401 0.00000000 0.08606056 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.304 1.189 4.586 0.190 0.637 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.202 0.450 2.803 0.187 0.320 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.234 0.587 2.736 0.199 0.436 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.276 0.529 2.524 0.189 0.618 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.296 0.354 3.206 0.228 0.549 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.005 0.351 0.641 4.960 0.278 0.581 7 039007 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.386 0.424 4.865 0.328 0.535 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.001 0.318 -0.250 3.485 0.290 0.513 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.004 0.322 0.656 3.392 0.219 0.652 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.003 0.282 0.126 2.541 0.238 0.417 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.015 0.342 1.288 6.439 0.222 0.517 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.008 0.290 0.394 2.923 0.227 0.532 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.042 0.326 1.479 5.239 0.191 0.660 14 039014 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.246 0.704 4.185 0.202 0.463 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.283 0.294 3.221 0.216 0.598 16 039016 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.261 0.639 3.818 0.219 0.467 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.011 0.547 2.173 8.123 0.276 0.713 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.003 0.259 0.740 3.482 0.248 0.178 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.004 0.311 1.320 6.732 0.248 0.508 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.040 0.407 0.797 5.117 0.347 0.475 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.007 0.312 0.727 4.219 0.237 0.518 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.013 0.074 0.540 1.538 0.046 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.002 0.300 0.640 3.652 0.224 0.525 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.007 0.066 0.584 1.974 0.061 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.998 0.202 -0.250 2.524 0.187 0.178 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.269 0.409 3.064 0.201 0.465 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.006 0.334 0.993 5.038 0.262 0.608 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.042 0.547 2.173 8.123 0.347 0.713 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 039002 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 039003 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 039004 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 039005 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 039006 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 039007 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 039008 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 039009 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 039010 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 039011 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 039012 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 039013 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 039014 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 039015 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 039016 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 039017 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 039018 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 039019 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 0.994 0.239 0.801 3.803 0.189 0.476 2 039002 1908 1994 87 0.999 0.194 0.409 2.803 0.187 0.267 3 039003 1908 1994 87 0.998 0.210 0.359 2.643 0.199 0.340 4 039004 1908 1994 87 0.996 0.239 0.353 2.429 0.188 0.518 5 039005 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.285 0.390 3.431 0.227 0.517 6 039006 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.333 0.322 4.215 0.278 0.558 7 039007 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.380 0.439 5.111 0.328 0.522 8 039008 1905 1994 90 0.997 0.305 -0.370 3.699 0.290 0.486 9 039009 1907 1994 88 0.993 0.284 0.517 3.347 0.217 0.571 10 039010 1907 1994 88 0.998 0.275 0.191 2.671 0.238 0.396 11 039011 1907 1994 88 0.998 0.270 0.118 2.815 0.221 0.439 12 039012 1907 1994 88 0.998 0.266 0.378 3.065 0.226 0.478 13 039013 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.223 0.222 3.453 0.191 0.431 14 039014 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.237 0.617 3.993 0.202 0.416 15 039015 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.254 0.234 3.351 0.216 0.521 16 039016 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.258 0.626 3.758 0.218 0.455 17 039017 1904 1994 91 0.996 0.340 0.165 3.114 0.271 0.533 18 039018 1904 1994 91 0.999 0.243 0.562 3.092 0.248 0.101 19 039019 1904 1994 91 0.997 0.270 0.504 4.310 0.248 0.411 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 0.996 0.332 -0.087 3.810 0.346 0.326 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 0.997 0.272 0.337 3.446 0.236 0.438 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.002 0.047 0.263 0.662 0.046 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 0.998 0.268 0.368 3.391 0.224 0.465 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.002 0.056 0.304 0.867 0.059 0.116 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.993 0.194 -0.370 2.429 0.187 0.101 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 0.997 0.239 0.206 2.940 0.200 0.403 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 0.998 0.295 0.510 3.807 0.259 0.520 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 0.999 0.380 0.801 5.111 0.346 0.571 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.420 0.166 0.012 0.058 2.658 0.020 0.808 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.020 SERIES 039005 AND 039019 90 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.808 SERIES 039009 AND 039012 88 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.698 0.539 0.508 0.510 0.337 0.318 0.425 SDEV 0.133 0.283 0.226 0.224 0.257 0.300 0.259 SERR 0.054 0.021 0.016 0.016 0.019 0.022 0.019 EPS 0.977 0.959 0.954 0.954 0.910 0.903 0.937 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.983 0.187 0.008 2.963 0.165 0.454 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.122 0.039 0.154 34 57 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.56 1.01 1.08 1.65 3.76 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.82 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.449 0.231 -0.016 -0.093 -0.219 -0.199 -0.201 -0.154 -0.173 -0.142 PACF 0.449 0.036 -0.166 -0.047 -0.158 -0.045 -0.077 -0.062 -0.123 -0.089 95% C.L. 0.210 0.248 0.258 0.258 0.259 0.267 0.274 0.280 0.284 0.288 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.217 0.465 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.407 0.178 -0.089 -0.105 -0.196 -0.100 -0.173 -0.112 -0.132 -0.130 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.407 2 0.402 0.014 3 0.404 0.094 -0.199 4 0.403 0.094 -0.197 -0.005 5 0.403 0.068 -0.184 0.049 -0.136 6 0.405 0.067 -0.180 0.048 -0.144 0.021 7 0.409 0.045 -0.173 0.021 -0.134 0.081 -0.149 8 0.402 0.049 -0.179 0.022 -0.142 0.083 -0.131 -0.044 9 0.399 0.039 -0.173 0.011 -0.140 0.070 -0.127 -0.014 -0.076 10 0.389 0.037 -0.189 0.020 -0.158 0.071 -0.150 -0.008 -0.023 -0.131 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 644.55 630.03 632.02 630.34 632.34 632.65 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 634.61 634.56 636.39 637.86 638.28 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.407 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.60 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 119.90 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.407 0.166 0.068 0.028 0.011 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 039001 1 0.233 0.478 2 039002 1 0.075 0.270 3 039003 1 0.130 0.345 4 039004 1 0.279 0.528 5 039005 1 0.272 0.521 6 039006 1 0.314 0.560 7 039007 1 0.322 0.537 8 039008 1 0.251 0.494 9 039009 1 0.374 0.583 10 039010 1 0.168 0.405 11 039011 1 0.212 0.460 12 039012 1 0.241 0.485 13 039013 1 0.200 0.443 14 039014 1 0.198 0.431 15 039015 1 0.283 0.529 16 039016 1 0.219 0.464 17 039017 1 0.302 0.549 18 039018 1 0.021 0.103 19 039019 1 0.176 0.418 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 039020 1 0.110 0.331 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.219 0.447 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.088 0.115 MEDIAN 1 0.226 0.471 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.109 0.117 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.021 0.103 LOWER HINGE 1 0.172 0.411 UPPER HINGE 1 0.281 0.529 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.374 0.583 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.210 0.944 4.803 0.227 -0.036 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.187 0.497 3.153 0.211 0.011 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.197 0.388 2.629 0.233 -0.043 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.202 0.589 2.814 0.228 -0.008 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.243 0.439 3.387 0.280 -0.018 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.276 0.089 3.535 0.328 0.012 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.320 0.073 3.854 0.376 0.127 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.265 -0.646 4.276 0.330 -0.044 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.229 0.446 3.475 0.282 -0.141 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.251 0.325 2.714 0.279 0.023 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.239 0.260 3.010 0.268 0.019 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.232 0.223 2.703 0.279 -0.045 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.199 0.193 3.294 0.231 0.022 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.213 0.483 3.806 0.238 0.049 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.215 -0.025 3.020 0.243 0.027 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.227 0.566 3.393 0.249 0.027 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.282 0.279 3.187 0.328 -0.002 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.241 0.569 3.137 0.257 0.008 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.245 0.385 3.012 0.284 0.013 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.313 -0.393 4.064 0.379 -0.015 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.239 0.284 3.363 0.276 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.037 0.353 0.565 0.049 0.051 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.235 0.355 3.240 0.273 0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.046 0.349 0.659 0.071 0.049 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.187 -0.646 2.629 0.211 -0.141 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.211 0.141 3.011 0.236 -0.027 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.258 0.490 3.670 0.306 0.023 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.320 0.944 4.803 0.379 0.127 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.443 0.141 0.010 0.211 2.854 0.080 0.775 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.080 SERIES 039001 AND 039018 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.775 SERIES 039006 AND 039007 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.623 0.519 0.490 0.533 0.434 0.335 0.456 SDEV 0.132 0.273 0.204 0.168 0.177 0.240 0.216 SERR 0.054 0.020 0.015 0.012 0.013 0.017 0.016 EPS 0.968 0.956 0.951 0.958 0.939 0.910 0.944 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.992 0.168 -0.056 2.842 0.201 -0.011 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.211 0.069 0.101 31 60 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.58 1.00 1.04 1.62 3.33 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.78 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.011 0.104 -0.137 -0.030 -0.171 -0.021 -0.099 -0.018 -0.098 -0.124 PACF -0.011 0.104 -0.136 -0.042 -0.147 -0.035 -0.083 -0.061 -0.111 -0.187 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.212 0.216 0.216 0.222 0.222 0.224 0.224 0.226 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.103 -0.136 -0.033 -0.172 -0.024 -0.099 -0.020 -0.099 -0.125 PACF 0.001 0.103 -0.137 -0.042 -0.147 -0.035 -0.083 -0.061 -0.112 -0.186 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.212 0.216 0.216 0.222 0.222 0.224 0.224 0.226 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.011 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.990 0.187 -0.027 2.947 0.168 0.425 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.420 0.197 -0.065 -0.124 -0.224 -0.163 -0.172 -0.134 -0.161 -0.131 PACF 0.420 0.025 -0.190 -0.046 -0.143 -0.021 -0.093 -0.082 -0.123 -0.093 95% C.L. 0.210 0.244 0.251 0.252 0.254 0.263 0.267 0.272 0.275 0.279 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.189 0.434 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES