RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 039 1 Aubure (F), EU-Pr. DENSITY_EARLY PCAB - 039 2 France Norway spruce 1080 5334-800 1904 1994 - 039 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 20 039020 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1972 1972 / 1974 1974 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 3.235 0.207 0.897 4.653 0.061 0.197 2 039002 1908 1994 87 3.199 0.281 1.424 7.765 0.072 0.278 3 039003 1908 1994 87 3.194 0.279 0.899 4.281 0.072 0.308 4 039004 1908 1994 87 3.225 0.227 0.726 4.343 0.059 0.405 5 039005 1905 1994 90 3.061 0.301 0.846 3.484 0.072 0.420 6 039006 1905 1994 90 3.023 0.368 1.401 6.322 0.084 0.465 7 039007 1905 1994 90 3.185 0.754 4.026 20.253 0.080 0.610 8 039008 1905 1994 90 3.260 0.402 2.373 12.503 0.075 0.443 9 039009 1907 1994 88 3.063 0.303 0.130 2.837 0.069 0.586 10 039010 1907 1994 88 3.153 0.331 0.531 3.100 0.070 0.615 11 039011 1907 1994 88 3.100 0.375 -0.132 2.520 0.074 0.694 12 039012 1907 1994 88 3.227 0.314 0.398 3.992 0.069 0.581 13 039013 1905 1994 90 3.264 0.375 0.470 3.005 0.073 0.646 14 039014 1905 1994 90 3.165 0.293 1.231 6.068 0.067 0.350 15 039015 1905 1994 90 3.331 0.285 0.470 5.026 0.055 0.571 16 039016 1905 1994 90 3.301 0.300 0.914 4.089 0.068 0.450 17 039017 1904 1994 91 3.350 0.369 0.434 3.391 0.070 0.679 18 039018 1904 1994 91 3.131 0.255 0.282 3.216 0.070 0.433 19 039019 1904 1994 91 3.455 0.406 0.130 2.823 0.061 0.762 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 3.510 0.733 1.425 6.265 0.093 0.674 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1904 TO 1994 91 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 3.222 0.358 0.944 5.497 0.071 0.508 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.125 0.143 0.931 4.169 0.009 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 3.212 0.309 0.786 4.185 0.070 0.518 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.140 0.092 0.900 3.008 0.006 0.218 MINIMUM VALUE 87 3.023 0.207 -0.132 2.520 0.055 0.197 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 3.142 0.283 0.416 3.158 0.068 0.412 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 3.282 0.375 1.316 6.166 0.073 0.630 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 3.510 0.754 4.026 20.253 0.093 0.762 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.527 0.156 0.011 -0.303 2.530 0.156 0.886 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.156 SERIES 039002 AND 039020 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.886 SERIES 039009 AND 039012 88 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.779 0.674 0.687 0.422 0.380 0.427 0.370 SDEV 0.077 0.144 0.150 0.228 0.260 0.214 0.282 SERR 0.031 0.010 0.011 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.020 EPS 0.985 0.976 0.978 0.936 0.925 0.937 0.921 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 3.203 0.245 0.223 2.602 0.053 0.603 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.494 0.157 -0.253 33 58 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 1.65 1.00 1.10 2.75 13.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.05 0.76 0.87 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 90. 2. 87. 88. 90. 91. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.597 0.467 0.481 0.387 0.276 0.233 0.215 0.189 0.180 0.213 PACF 0.597 0.173 0.236 0.003 -0.063 -0.019 0.030 0.038 0.050 0.093 95% C.L. 0.210 0.274 0.307 0.339 0.358 0.367 0.373 0.379 0.383 0.387 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.431 0.418 0.098 0.250 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108150 3.18747115 2 039002 1 2.69976044 0.69309658 0.00000000 3.16816068 3 039003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00230462 3.09238982 4 039004 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00369614 3.06208229 5 039005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00329086 2.91148806 6 039006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00634054 2.73461676 7 039007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01459168 2.52063417 8 039008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00471589 3.04509377 9 039009 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00620091 2.78746867 10 039010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00586735 2.89185739 11 039011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00892035 2.70315838 12 039012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00468115 3.01862073 13 039013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00839536 2.88212228 14 039014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00158983 3.09277415 15 039015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00415549 3.14170289 16 039016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00339342 3.14637709 17 039017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00792005 2.98545790 18 039018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00424256 2.93616104 19 039019 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01026326 2.98239565 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02248142 2.50094080 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.064 1.112 5.605 0.060 0.175 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.072 0.230 2.409 0.069 0.168 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.086 1.185 5.430 0.071 0.263 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.065 1.622 8.901 0.059 0.256 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.095 1.152 5.081 0.071 0.348 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.108 1.290 4.990 0.084 0.317 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.002 0.187 3.015 13.155 0.079 0.549 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.117 2.281 10.520 0.074 0.386 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.087 1.069 7.166 0.068 0.378 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.096 1.113 6.549 0.069 0.478 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.100 1.248 7.238 0.073 0.434 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.092 1.446 8.021 0.068 0.470 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.096 1.264 6.604 0.073 0.405 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.092 1.512 7.242 0.067 0.322 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.081 1.201 6.609 0.054 0.464 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.088 1.335 5.881 0.067 0.375 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.090 0.680 3.500 0.069 0.494 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.074 0.637 3.492 0.069 0.266 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.088 0.389 3.493 0.061 0.527 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.001 0.118 2.111 8.690 0.095 0.092 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.095 1.295 6.529 0.070 0.358 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.026 0.637 2.568 0.009 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.091 1.224 6.576 0.069 0.376 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.015 0.389 2.596 0.006 0.203 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.064 0.230 2.409 0.054 0.092 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.083 1.090 5.036 0.067 0.265 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.098 1.479 7.631 0.073 0.467 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.002 0.187 3.015 13.155 0.095 0.549 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 039002 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 039003 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 039004 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 039005 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 039006 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 039007 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 039008 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 039009 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 039010 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 039011 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 039012 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 039013 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 039014 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 039015 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 039016 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 039017 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 039018 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 039019 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.058 0.941 4.768 0.060 0.070 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.066 0.725 3.414 0.069 0.020 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.078 1.659 8.088 0.071 0.136 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.055 1.033 5.446 0.058 0.089 5 039005 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.081 1.284 5.370 0.071 0.164 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.102 1.238 4.876 0.084 0.257 7 039007 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.123 1.811 8.665 0.079 0.336 8 039008 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.099 2.353 12.309 0.074 0.226 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.079 0.749 5.350 0.068 0.308 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.073 0.390 3.670 0.069 0.238 11 039011 1907 1994 88 0.999 0.086 1.204 7.281 0.073 0.291 12 039012 1907 1994 88 0.999 0.081 0.874 4.980 0.068 0.391 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.081 0.966 6.120 0.072 0.245 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.076 2.447 14.376 0.067 0.065 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.076 0.701 5.278 0.054 0.438 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.077 1.094 4.994 0.067 0.266 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.081 0.778 3.377 0.069 0.390 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.069 0.631 3.665 0.069 0.190 19 039019 1904 1994 91 0.999 0.071 0.668 3.748 0.061 0.323 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 0.999 0.104 2.023 9.789 0.094 -0.087 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.081 1.178 6.278 0.070 0.218 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.016 0.586 3.008 0.009 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.078 0.999 5.314 0.069 0.242 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.011 0.734 3.427 0.006 0.203 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.999 0.055 0.390 3.377 0.054 -0.087 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 0.999 0.072 0.737 4.258 0.067 0.113 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.083 1.472 7.684 0.073 0.316 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.123 2.447 14.376 0.094 0.438 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.481 0.131 0.010 0.446 3.140 0.205 0.863 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.205 SERIES 039001 AND 039020 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.863 SERIES 039009 AND 039012 88 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.745 0.683 0.683 0.457 0.382 0.436 0.330 SDEV 0.093 0.140 0.139 0.215 0.250 0.222 0.248 SERR 0.038 0.010 0.010 0.016 0.018 0.016 0.018 EPS 0.982 0.977 0.977 0.944 0.925 0.939 0.908 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.999 0.058 1.123 5.324 0.052 0.317 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.252 0.074 -0.024 38 53 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 0.83 1.03 1.16 2.00 12.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.04 0.79 0.88 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.314 0.114 0.180 0.059 -0.138 -0.212 -0.212 -0.226 -0.172 -0.077 PACF 0.314 0.017 0.155 -0.048 -0.177 -0.171 -0.119 -0.092 -0.010 0.033 95% C.L. 0.210 0.229 0.232 0.238 0.239 0.242 0.250 0.258 0.266 0.271 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.107 0.325 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.193 0.035 0.080 0.017 -0.163 -0.169 -0.145 -0.179 -0.134 -0.050 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.193 2 0.193 -0.002 3 0.194 -0.017 0.076 4 0.195 -0.017 0.079 -0.013 5 0.192 -0.004 0.076 0.020 -0.173 6 0.172 -0.001 0.085 0.020 -0.150 -0.120 7 0.160 -0.016 0.087 0.028 -0.150 -0.102 -0.100 8 0.148 -0.029 0.069 0.032 -0.140 -0.104 -0.080 -0.122 9 0.140 -0.034 0.062 0.023 -0.137 -0.100 -0.082 -0.112 -0.065 10 0.138 -0.037 0.060 0.020 -0.141 -0.099 -0.081 -0.113 -0.062 -0.025 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 431.16 429.70 431.70 433.17 435.16 434.39 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 435.08 436.17 436.82 438.43 440.38 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.193 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.72 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.87 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.193 0.037 0.007 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 039001 1 0.014 0.075 2 039002 1 0.015 0.020 3 039003 1 0.038 0.140 4 039004 1 0.022 0.099 5 039005 1 0.042 0.173 6 039006 1 0.073 0.264 7 039007 1 0.144 0.373 8 039008 1 0.090 0.232 9 039009 1 0.113 0.334 10 039010 1 0.067 0.254 11 039011 1 0.111 0.332 12 039012 1 0.183 0.427 13 039013 1 0.069 0.261 14 039014 1 0.006 0.068 15 039015 1 0.238 0.473 16 039016 1 0.097 0.281 17 039017 1 0.164 0.401 18 039018 1 0.069 0.195 19 039019 1 0.127 0.330 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 039020 1 0.040 -0.089 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.086 0.232 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.062 0.147 MEDIAN 1 0.071 0.257 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.081 0.214 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.006 -0.089 LOWER HINGE 1 0.039 0.119 UPPER HINGE 1 0.120 0.333 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.238 0.473 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.058 0.946 4.819 0.062 0.001 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.066 0.738 3.457 0.069 0.002 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.077 1.697 8.520 0.074 0.014 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.055 1.023 5.454 0.060 0.001 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.080 1.515 6.018 0.077 -0.027 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.098 1.472 5.695 0.093 -0.022 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.114 1.965 10.474 0.097 0.054 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.096 2.559 13.538 0.085 -0.048 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.074 0.656 5.213 0.081 -0.034 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.070 0.490 3.707 0.077 -0.003 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.080 1.193 6.626 0.083 -0.028 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.072 0.644 4.427 0.081 -0.025 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.078 1.091 5.968 0.083 -0.023 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.076 2.504 14.573 0.069 -0.001 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.066 0.856 4.928 0.071 -0.096 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.074 1.143 4.878 0.079 -0.052 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.074 0.664 3.844 0.083 -0.032 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.068 0.650 4.028 0.077 -0.039 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.067 0.838 4.178 0.070 -0.053 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.104 1.860 9.075 0.090 0.017 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.077 1.225 6.471 0.078 -0.020 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.015 0.618 3.187 0.009 0.032 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.074 1.057 5.334 0.078 -0.024 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.012 0.905 3.271 0.012 0.037 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.055 0.490 3.457 0.060 -0.096 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.067 0.701 4.302 0.071 -0.036 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.080 1.606 7.573 0.083 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.114 2.559 14.573 0.097 0.054 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.486 0.127 0.009 0.493 3.258 0.181 0.855 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.181 SERIES 039007 AND 039018 90 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.855 SERIES 039009 AND 039012 88 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.721 0.702 0.696 0.423 0.376 0.488 0.363 SDEV 0.115 0.122 0.135 0.219 0.232 0.190 0.237 SERR 0.047 0.009 0.010 0.016 0.017 0.014 0.017 EPS 0.979 0.979 0.979 0.936 0.923 0.950 0.919 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.998 0.055 1.193 5.773 0.057 0.065 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.269 0.080 -0.033 37 54 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.58 1.00 1.00 1.26 2.25 9.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.76 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.064 -0.015 0.167 0.051 -0.123 -0.159 -0.111 -0.149 -0.125 -0.051 PACF 0.064 -0.019 0.170 0.029 -0.125 -0.178 -0.119 -0.113 -0.056 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.210 0.211 0.211 0.216 0.217 0.220 0.225 0.227 0.231 0.234 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.031 0.166 0.049 -0.117 -0.144 -0.091 -0.134 -0.113 -0.043 PACF -0.001 -0.031 0.167 0.049 -0.111 -0.177 -0.123 -0.118 -0.064 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.216 0.216 0.219 0.223 0.225 0.228 0.231 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.998 0.056 1.202 5.841 0.054 0.197 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.194 0.041 0.171 0.052 -0.134 -0.188 -0.153 -0.181 -0.150 -0.068 PACF 0.194 0.003 0.169 -0.013 -0.153 -0.177 -0.109 -0.101 -0.038 0.003 95% C.L. 0.210 0.217 0.218 0.224 0.224 0.228 0.234 0.239 0.245 0.249 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.041 0.201 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.12 MINUTES