RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 039 1 Aubure (F), EU-Pr. WIDTH_LATE PCAB - 039 2 France Norway spruce 1080 5334-800 1904 1994 - 039 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 20 039020 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1972 1972 / 1974 1974 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 0.446 0.172 1.341 6.489 0.281 0.507 2 039002 1908 1994 87 0.560 0.253 1.148 4.803 0.352 0.420 3 039003 1908 1994 87 0.452 0.232 2.257 9.548 0.456 0.283 4 039004 1908 1994 87 0.412 0.173 1.415 5.345 0.322 0.506 5 039005 1905 1994 90 0.433 0.199 0.661 2.799 0.461 0.220 6 039006 1905 1994 90 0.369 0.235 1.960 6.672 0.512 0.149 7 039007 1905 1994 90 0.273 0.169 1.980 8.745 0.470 0.394 8 039008 1905 1994 90 0.276 0.169 2.188 9.032 0.383 0.468 9 039009 1907 1994 88 0.302 0.118 1.228 5.376 0.378 0.127 10 039010 1907 1994 88 0.511 0.312 1.699 6.118 0.470 0.399 11 039011 1907 1994 88 0.252 0.122 1.311 4.722 0.358 0.502 12 039012 1907 1994 88 0.237 0.097 1.153 5.028 0.339 0.407 13 039013 1905 1994 90 0.394 0.214 1.342 4.378 0.345 0.540 14 039014 1905 1994 90 0.669 0.354 1.148 4.026 0.417 0.355 15 039015 1905 1994 90 0.316 0.199 1.840 6.321 0.420 0.444 16 039016 1905 1994 90 0.338 0.209 1.423 5.213 0.373 0.578 17 039017 1904 1994 91 0.543 0.268 1.853 8.264 0.417 0.208 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.040 0.552 0.597 2.408 0.384 0.582 19 039019 1904 1994 91 0.452 0.305 1.466 4.234 0.338 0.731 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 0.348 0.245 1.596 5.585 0.452 0.572 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1904 TO 1994 91 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 0.431 0.230 1.480 5.755 0.396 0.420 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.183 0.101 0.449 1.953 0.060 0.159 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 0.403 0.211 1.419 5.361 0.383 0.432 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.173 0.090 0.655 2.030 0.106 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.237 0.097 0.597 2.408 0.281 0.127 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 0.309 0.171 1.191 4.550 0.349 0.319 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 0.482 0.261 1.846 6.581 0.454 0.523 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.040 0.552 2.257 9.548 0.512 0.731 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.372 0.303 0.022 -0.391 2.034 -0.335 0.894 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.335 SERIES 039002 AND 039020 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.894 SERIES 039015 AND 039016 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.456 0.587 0.564 0.375 0.219 0.310 0.292 SDEV 0.123 0.179 0.250 0.272 0.308 0.251 0.269 SERR 0.050 0.013 0.018 0.020 0.022 0.018 0.020 EPS 0.938 0.966 0.963 0.923 0.849 0.900 0.892 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.376 0.140 1.436 5.823 0.295 0.357 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.670 0.363 0.045 68 23 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.17 2.73 1.01 1.25 3.98 17.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.08 0.83 0.88 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 90. 2. 87. 88. 90. 91. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.353 0.184 0.096 -0.017 -0.024 0.175 0.096 0.251 0.302 0.237 PACF 0.353 0.068 0.013 -0.075 -0.006 0.226 -0.020 0.213 0.157 0.089 95% C.L. 0.210 0.234 0.241 0.242 0.242 0.242 0.248 0.250 0.260 0.275 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.134 0.359 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00302271 0.31343758 2 039002 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00468652 0.35379311 3 039003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053893 0.42801124 4 039004 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00236276 0.30810747 5 039005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00158406 0.50496382 6 039006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00320500 0.51449436 7 039007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00375240 0.44384518 8 039008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00372811 0.44529587 9 039009 1 0.18964921 0.02720687 0.00000000 0.23103814 10 039010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00376695 0.67887932 11 039011 1 0.28898197 0.02922296 0.00000000 0.14931314 12 039012 1 0.27626783 0.00918179 0.00000000 0.04864113 13 039013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00488101 0.61641949 14 039014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00466930 0.88189763 15 039015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00457941 0.52402997 16 039016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00541038 0.58417231 17 039017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00067893 0.51140660 18 039018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00712454 1.36728942 19 039019 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00700334 0.77391207 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00613864 0.62419778 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 0.996 0.337 1.591 7.222 0.278 0.361 2 039002 1908 1994 87 0.995 0.386 1.168 4.972 0.348 0.268 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.512 2.201 9.150 0.451 0.277 4 039004 1908 1994 87 0.999 0.383 1.166 4.347 0.319 0.388 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.445 0.580 2.726 0.455 0.211 6 039006 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.554 1.543 5.033 0.506 0.096 7 039007 1905 1994 90 0.992 0.467 1.658 7.508 0.465 0.174 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.006 0.441 1.844 8.781 0.378 0.252 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.350 1.047 5.290 0.374 0.063 10 039010 1907 1994 88 0.996 0.528 1.265 4.739 0.464 0.341 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.374 0.734 3.541 0.354 0.293 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.356 1.002 4.793 0.336 0.296 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.001 0.395 0.851 3.500 0.340 0.295 14 039014 1905 1994 90 0.995 0.475 0.937 3.746 0.413 0.290 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.003 0.429 1.122 3.955 0.416 0.175 16 039016 1905 1994 90 0.997 0.398 1.366 5.887 0.371 0.266 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.487 1.637 6.901 0.412 0.200 18 039018 1904 1994 91 0.994 0.465 0.282 2.291 0.379 0.508 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.033 0.572 1.403 4.346 0.335 0.638 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.052 0.625 1.650 5.918 0.450 0.495 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.003 0.449 1.252 5.232 0.392 0.294 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.014 0.080 0.460 1.885 0.060 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.443 1.216 4.882 0.379 0.284 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.004 0.115 0.645 2.559 0.106 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.992 0.337 0.282 2.291 0.278 0.063 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 0.996 0.384 0.969 3.851 0.344 0.206 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.001 0.499 1.614 6.410 0.450 0.351 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.052 0.625 2.201 9.150 0.506 0.638 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 039002 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 039003 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 039004 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 039005 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 039006 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 039007 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 039008 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 039009 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 039010 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 039011 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 039012 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 039013 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 039014 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 039015 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 039016 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 039017 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 039018 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 039019 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 0.997 0.284 1.336 5.819 0.278 0.136 2 039002 1908 1994 87 0.998 0.357 0.795 3.733 0.348 0.152 3 039003 1908 1994 87 0.998 0.452 1.684 7.107 0.452 0.142 4 039004 1908 1994 87 0.995 0.353 1.267 5.210 0.318 0.281 5 039005 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.439 0.545 2.677 0.455 0.191 6 039006 1905 1994 90 0.993 0.505 1.250 4.113 0.507 0.031 7 039007 1905 1994 90 0.996 0.454 1.422 6.032 0.464 0.138 8 039008 1905 1994 90 0.995 0.400 1.567 7.684 0.379 0.180 9 039009 1907 1994 88 0.999 0.345 1.028 5.190 0.374 0.043 10 039010 1907 1994 88 0.991 0.481 1.627 8.294 0.464 0.236 11 039011 1907 1994 88 0.998 0.358 0.667 3.636 0.354 0.244 12 039012 1907 1994 88 0.997 0.338 0.887 4.530 0.335 0.251 13 039013 1905 1994 90 0.997 0.368 0.599 2.946 0.340 0.247 14 039014 1905 1994 90 0.995 0.433 0.975 3.413 0.413 0.091 15 039015 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.411 1.074 4.103 0.416 0.136 16 039016 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.383 1.074 4.663 0.371 0.240 17 039017 1904 1994 91 0.994 0.425 0.969 3.389 0.412 0.122 18 039018 1904 1994 91 0.985 0.393 0.833 4.708 0.378 0.227 19 039019 1904 1994 91 0.982 0.393 0.721 3.062 0.335 0.454 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 0.990 0.466 0.862 3.454 0.450 0.247 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 0.995 0.402 1.059 4.688 0.392 0.189 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.005 0.055 0.341 1.601 0.060 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 0.996 0.397 1.001 4.321 0.378 0.185 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.004 0.088 0.487 2.081 0.107 0.110 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.982 0.284 0.545 2.677 0.278 0.031 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 0.993 0.358 0.814 3.434 0.344 0.136 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 0.998 0.446 1.302 5.515 0.451 0.246 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 0.999 0.505 1.684 8.294 0.507 0.454 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.401 0.138 0.010 0.242 3.068 0.076 0.807 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.076 SERIES 039002 AND 039020 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.807 SERIES 039015 AND 039016 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.473 0.599 0.598 0.372 0.206 0.251 0.336 SDEV 0.187 0.183 0.216 0.241 0.277 0.250 0.245 SERR 0.076 0.013 0.016 0.018 0.020 0.018 0.018 EPS 0.942 0.968 0.968 0.922 0.838 0.870 0.910 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.973 0.262 0.726 4.294 0.275 0.156 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.623 0.224 0.063 34 57 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.91 1.00 1.09 2.00 6.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.83 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.154 -0.063 -0.172 -0.207 -0.214 0.020 -0.064 0.091 0.114 0.011 PACF 0.154 -0.089 -0.152 -0.170 -0.198 0.019 -0.176 0.027 0.014 -0.074 95% C.L. 0.210 0.215 0.215 0.221 0.230 0.238 0.238 0.239 0.241 0.243 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 0.155 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.143 -0.030 -0.168 -0.202 -0.208 0.030 -0.093 0.095 0.088 -0.006 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.143 2 0.150 -0.052 3 0.142 -0.028 -0.160 4 0.116 -0.032 -0.137 -0.164 5 0.085 -0.058 -0.143 -0.143 -0.185 6 0.092 -0.052 -0.137 -0.141 -0.188 0.038 7 0.100 -0.088 -0.164 -0.167 -0.198 0.055 -0.189 8 0.107 -0.090 -0.156 -0.160 -0.191 0.059 -0.193 0.039 9 0.107 -0.090 -0.156 -0.160 -0.191 0.059 -0.193 0.039 0.001 10 0.107 -0.086 -0.173 -0.155 -0.208 0.045 -0.207 0.031 0.010 -0.088 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 712.35 712.47 714.23 713.87 713.37 712.22 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 714.09 712.78 714.64 716.64 717.93 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 5 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.085 -0.058 -0.143 -0.143 -0.185 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.54 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.78 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 5) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.085 -0.050 -0.152 -0.165 -0.195 0.006 0.066 0.085 0.061 0.0260 -0.024 -0.037 -0.030 -0.012 0.005 0.015 0.014 0.007 -0.001 -.0054 -0.006 -0.004 0.000 0.002 0.003 0.002 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -.0009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 039001 5 0.130 0.166 -0.113 -0.229 0.115 -0.241 2 039002 5 0.062 0.149 0.015 -0.168 -0.001 -0.097 3 039003 5 0.107 0.082 0.002 -0.076 -0.166 -0.208 4 039004 5 0.183 0.328 0.123 -0.215 0.208 -0.173 5 039005 5 0.111 0.164 -0.070 -0.201 -0.049 -0.150 6 039006 5 0.100 -0.011 0.112 0.041 -0.228 -0.177 7 039007 5 0.140 0.113 -0.111 -0.040 -0.149 -0.162 8 039008 5 0.092 0.172 -0.127 -0.021 -0.193 -0.065 9 039009 5 0.057 0.016 -0.009 -0.063 -0.153 -0.103 10 039010 5 0.137 0.224 -0.147 -0.077 -0.175 -0.049 11 039011 5 0.156 0.198 0.051 -0.066 -0.046 -0.279 12 039012 5 0.153 0.227 -0.126 -0.106 -0.120 -0.132 13 039013 5 0.171 0.188 -0.006 -0.103 -0.214 -0.106 14 039014 5 0.063 0.110 -0.062 -0.020 -0.191 0.121 15 039015 5 0.095 0.099 0.012 -0.151 -0.203 -0.005 16 039016 5 0.137 0.231 -0.101 -0.027 -0.253 -0.005 17 039017 5 0.063 0.104 0.049 0.026 -0.098 -0.122 18 039018 5 0.117 0.177 0.204 -0.003 -0.070 -0.149 19 039019 5 0.316 0.435 0.042 0.139 -0.244 -0.026 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 039020 5 0.139 0.255 0.060 -0.058 0.119 -0.265 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 5 0.126 0.171 -0.010 -0.071 -0.106 -0.120 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.058 0.101 0.096 0.092 0.130 0.098 MEDIAN 5 0.123 0.169 -0.002 -0.064 -0.151 -0.127 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.053 0.118 0.156 0.108 0.150 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 5 0.057 -0.011 -0.147 -0.229 -0.253 -0.279 LOWER HINGE 5 0.094 0.107 -0.106 -0.128 -0.198 -0.175 UPPER HINGE 5 0.146 0.225 0.050 -0.020 -0.047 -0.057 MAXIMUM VALUE 5 0.316 0.435 0.204 0.139 0.208 0.121 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.265 0.999 5.400 0.287 -0.008 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.345 0.885 3.913 0.354 0.005 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.427 1.396 6.169 0.456 0.002 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.319 1.310 5.360 0.334 0.007 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.413 0.563 2.702 0.446 -0.004 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.480 1.041 3.688 0.512 0.013 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.434 1.407 5.597 0.466 0.034 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.381 1.520 7.460 0.386 -0.002 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.338 1.003 5.315 0.375 0.012 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.449 1.294 6.470 0.486 0.002 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.329 0.729 3.637 0.381 0.000 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.315 1.046 5.306 0.345 -0.022 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.339 0.881 4.135 0.351 -0.017 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.420 0.957 3.566 0.417 0.007 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.392 1.015 3.844 0.419 0.000 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.356 0.819 4.452 0.395 0.001 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.416 1.079 3.833 0.433 -0.016 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.369 1.377 6.488 0.391 -0.008 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.338 0.806 3.211 0.358 -0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.432 0.942 3.609 0.443 0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.378 1.053 4.708 0.402 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.055 0.255 1.296 0.056 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.375 1.009 4.293 0.393 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.085 0.419 1.836 0.088 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.265 0.563 2.702 0.287 -0.022 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.338 0.883 3.662 0.356 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.423 1.302 5.499 0.444 0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.480 1.520 7.460 0.512 0.034 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.382 0.133 0.010 0.358 3.331 0.030 0.777 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.030 SERIES 039002 AND 039020 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.777 SERIES 039015 AND 039016 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.367 0.587 0.585 0.372 0.228 0.254 0.290 SDEV 0.255 0.179 0.171 0.227 0.258 0.237 0.241 SERR 0.104 0.013 0.012 0.016 0.019 0.017 0.017 EPS 0.913 0.966 0.966 0.922 0.856 0.872 0.891 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.981 0.241 0.975 4.753 0.278 -0.059 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.554 0.216 0.064 29 62 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.76 1.00 1.06 1.82 5.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.04 0.77 0.87 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.059 -0.101 -0.108 -0.017 -0.055 0.062 -0.139 0.030 0.061 -0.008 PACF -0.059 -0.105 -0.122 -0.045 -0.087 0.031 -0.162 0.000 0.034 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.212 0.215 0.215 0.216 0.216 0.220 0.220 0.221 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 -0.012 -0.003 -0.014 -0.019 0.027 -0.174 0.007 0.042 -0.034 PACF 0.002 -0.012 -0.003 -0.014 -0.019 0.027 -0.175 0.009 0.037 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.216 0.216 0.217 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.002 0.002 -0.013 -0.003 -0.015 -0.020 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.980 0.250 0.724 4.250 0.263 0.147 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.145 -0.020 -0.160 -0.206 -0.218 -0.002 -0.064 0.102 0.110 0.020 PACF 0.145 -0.042 -0.154 -0.168 -0.188 0.011 -0.145 0.035 0.020 -0.062 95% C.L. 0.210 0.214 0.214 0.219 0.228 0.237 0.237 0.237 0.239 0.242 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.19 MINUTES