RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 039 1 Aubure (F), EU-Pr. DENSITY_MINIMUM PCAB - 039 2 France Norway spruce 1080 5334-800 1904 1994 - 039 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 039001 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1948 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 039002 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1940 1944 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 039008 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1936 1941 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 039015 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1937 1941 / 1977 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 039020 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1972 1972 / 1974 1974 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 0.245 0.021 0.778 5.061 0.075 0.135 2 039002 1908 1994 87 0.238 0.026 1.718 8.259 0.076 0.482 3 039003 1908 1994 87 0.241 0.023 0.216 2.526 0.074 0.479 4 039004 1908 1994 87 0.244 0.022 0.634 3.860 0.066 0.505 5 039005 1905 1994 90 0.229 0.024 0.907 4.533 0.082 0.340 6 039006 1905 1994 90 0.227 0.035 2.235 9.951 0.097 0.450 7 039007 1905 1994 90 0.246 0.081 4.575 23.842 0.104 0.558 8 039008 1905 1994 90 0.254 0.042 3.184 16.808 0.081 0.445 9 039009 1907 1994 88 0.230 0.029 0.412 3.877 0.094 0.466 10 039010 1907 1994 88 0.224 0.033 0.826 3.865 0.086 0.618 11 039011 1907 1994 88 0.226 0.037 -0.060 3.145 0.100 0.656 12 039012 1907 1994 88 0.239 0.031 0.690 4.440 0.092 0.538 13 039013 1905 1994 90 0.233 0.037 0.450 2.655 0.105 0.637 14 039014 1905 1994 90 0.230 0.032 0.840 4.284 0.087 0.511 15 039015 1905 1994 90 0.248 0.032 0.641 4.247 0.089 0.575 16 039016 1905 1994 90 0.244 0.031 0.619 3.580 0.097 0.470 17 039017 1904 1994 91 0.252 0.036 -0.354 3.193 0.092 0.692 18 039018 1904 1994 91 0.227 0.025 -0.324 3.302 0.086 0.493 19 039019 1904 1994 91 0.267 0.039 0.100 3.014 0.081 0.740 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 0.273 0.079 2.106 9.407 0.116 0.574 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1904 TO 1994 91 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 88 0.241 0.036 1.010 6.192 0.089 0.518 STANDARD DEVIATION 3 0.013 0.016 1.219 5.396 0.012 0.131 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 88 0.240 0.032 0.666 4.062 0.088 0.508 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 3 0.017 0.011 0.999 3.412 0.016 0.129 MINIMUM VALUE 80 0.224 0.021 -0.354 2.526 0.066 0.135 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 87 0.229 0.026 0.314 3.248 0.081 0.468 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 0.247 0.037 1.313 6.660 0.097 0.597 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 0.273 0.081 4.575 23.842 0.116 0.740 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.509 0.168 0.012 -0.639 3.410 -0.083 0.841 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.083 SERIES 039002 AND 039017 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.841 SERIES 039013 AND 039016 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.845 0.616 0.578 0.326 0.299 0.391 0.353 SDEV 0.063 0.164 0.169 0.253 0.247 0.205 0.275 SERR 0.026 0.012 0.012 0.018 0.018 0.015 0.020 EPS 0.990 0.970 0.965 0.906 0.895 0.928 0.916 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.238 0.023 0.102 2.967 0.060 0.632 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.487 0.147 -0.011 50 41 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.94 1.00 1.13 2.07 21.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.77 0.85 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 90. 2. 87. 88. 90. 91. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.625 0.505 0.490 0.445 0.285 0.258 0.287 0.222 0.211 0.160 PACF 0.625 0.187 0.199 0.083 -0.159 0.028 0.104 -0.021 0.075 -0.090 95% C.L. 0.210 0.280 0.317 0.349 0.373 0.383 0.390 0.399 0.405 0.410 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.481 0.418 0.149 0.224 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000194 0.24485560 2 039002 1 0.18268566 0.38457793 0.00000000 0.23292367 3 039003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031603 0.22701417 4 039004 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00036123 0.22789896 5 039005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021879 0.21937828 6 039006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00069753 0.19559550 7 039007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00147088 0.17874157 8 039008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052703 0.22812471 9 039009 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047462 0.20910658 10 039010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055422 0.19965518 11 039011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082623 0.18925549 12 039012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040567 0.22047022 13 039013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00087575 0.19359800 14 039014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025913 0.21776529 15 039015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056063 0.22258453 16 039016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048574 0.22223221 17 039017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00075617 0.21752381 18 039018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047571 0.20504029 19 039019 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00091480 0.22528204 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00228130 0.17098603 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.083 0.718 5.014 0.073 0.149 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.081 0.456 3.175 0.069 0.314 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.093 0.773 4.094 0.073 0.397 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.083 1.418 7.047 0.066 0.381 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.104 1.265 6.673 0.081 0.287 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.127 2.280 9.254 0.097 0.236 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.003 0.254 3.285 14.888 0.104 0.508 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.152 2.975 14.021 0.077 0.392 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.116 1.374 9.189 0.093 0.303 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.137 1.959 10.084 0.085 0.491 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.145 1.501 9.724 0.100 0.408 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.125 1.620 7.966 0.091 0.448 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.001 0.135 1.620 8.339 0.105 0.380 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.140 1.275 6.177 0.087 0.467 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.114 1.610 7.746 0.082 0.417 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.120 1.559 7.909 0.096 0.340 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.123 0.028 3.155 0.091 0.530 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.101 0.645 4.834 0.086 0.304 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.114 0.427 3.431 0.081 0.532 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.001 0.177 2.640 10.403 0.120 0.097 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.126 1.471 7.656 0.088 0.369 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.001 0.039 0.856 3.288 0.014 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.121 1.459 7.827 0.086 0.386 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.036 1.044 4.565 0.017 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.081 0.028 3.155 0.066 0.097 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.102 0.746 4.924 0.079 0.304 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.138 1.790 9.489 0.097 0.458 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.003 0.254 3.285 14.888 0.120 0.532 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 039002 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 039003 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 039004 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 039005 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 039006 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 039007 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 039008 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 039009 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 039010 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 039011 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 039012 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 039013 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 039014 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 039015 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 039016 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 039017 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 039018 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 039019 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.076 0.457 4.883 0.073 0.029 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.067 0.622 4.500 0.069 0.051 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.076 0.282 3.844 0.073 0.170 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.070 0.412 3.931 0.065 0.239 5 039005 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.089 0.780 4.614 0.081 0.122 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.119 2.118 9.080 0.097 0.178 7 039007 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.168 1.869 9.553 0.103 0.317 8 039008 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.124 3.202 17.856 0.077 0.209 9 039009 1907 1994 88 0.999 0.104 0.741 5.862 0.093 0.225 10 039010 1907 1994 88 0.999 0.098 1.081 5.352 0.085 0.246 11 039011 1907 1994 88 0.999 0.125 1.350 8.896 0.100 0.273 12 039012 1907 1994 88 0.999 0.109 0.887 4.472 0.091 0.369 13 039013 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.107 0.684 4.860 0.104 0.151 14 039014 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.104 1.295 6.871 0.087 0.170 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.102 0.953 5.238 0.081 0.352 16 039016 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.098 0.988 5.279 0.095 0.117 17 039017 1904 1994 91 0.999 0.109 0.241 3.121 0.091 0.415 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.093 0.467 4.410 0.086 0.205 19 039019 1904 1994 91 0.999 0.093 0.676 3.625 0.081 0.319 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 0.999 0.155 2.579 11.475 0.119 -0.067 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 0.999 0.104 1.084 6.386 0.088 0.204 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.026 0.792 3.515 0.013 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 0.999 0.103 0.833 5.060 0.086 0.207 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.023 0.778 3.443 0.017 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.998 0.067 0.241 3.121 0.065 -0.067 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 0.999 0.091 0.545 4.441 0.079 0.136 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.114 1.322 7.884 0.096 0.295 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.168 3.202 17.856 0.119 0.415 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.455 0.139 0.010 -0.067 2.721 0.150 0.792 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.150 SERIES 039002 AND 039008 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.792 SERIES 039013 AND 039016 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.820 0.637 0.551 0.325 0.293 0.407 0.343 SDEV 0.057 0.148 0.168 0.275 0.236 0.184 0.226 SERR 0.023 0.011 0.012 0.020 0.017 0.013 0.016 EPS 0.988 0.972 0.961 0.906 0.892 0.932 0.913 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.075 1.072 6.195 0.059 0.329 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.309 0.086 -0.021 36 55 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.42 1.62 1.02 1.16 2.79 7.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.72 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.325 0.128 0.144 0.124 -0.158 -0.174 -0.092 -0.190 -0.133 -0.209 PACF 0.325 0.026 0.106 0.051 -0.254 -0.087 -0.011 -0.138 0.049 -0.197 95% C.L. 0.210 0.231 0.234 0.238 0.241 0.245 0.250 0.252 0.258 0.261 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.122 0.344 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.151 0.051 0.034 0.087 -0.215 -0.121 -0.089 -0.206 -0.093 -0.118 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.151 2 0.147 0.029 3 0.146 0.026 0.023 4 0.144 0.023 0.011 0.080 5 0.164 0.026 0.017 0.116 -0.248 6 0.148 0.033 0.018 0.117 -0.238 -0.063 7 0.145 0.021 0.024 0.118 -0.236 -0.055 -0.052 8 0.135 0.010 -0.022 0.141 -0.231 -0.051 -0.024 -0.196 9 0.138 0.011 -0.021 0.146 -0.234 -0.051 -0.024 -0.198 0.019 10 0.141 -0.018 -0.025 0.138 -0.268 -0.030 -0.027 -0.197 0.038 -0.144 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 471.03 470.94 472.86 474.81 476.23 472.44 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 474.08 475.83 474.28 476.25 476.35 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.151 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.28 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.33 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.151 0.023 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 039001 1 0.027 0.031 2 039002 1 0.131 0.051 3 039003 1 0.050 0.175 4 039004 1 0.066 0.257 5 039005 1 0.051 0.131 6 039006 1 0.049 0.184 7 039007 1 0.127 0.353 8 039008 1 0.115 0.216 9 039009 1 0.073 0.251 10 039010 1 0.076 0.269 11 039011 1 0.101 0.318 12 039012 1 0.162 0.402 13 039013 1 0.034 0.162 14 039014 1 0.035 0.181 15 039015 1 0.150 0.382 16 039016 1 0.033 0.126 17 039017 1 0.196 0.432 18 039018 1 0.047 0.214 19 039019 1 0.115 0.328 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 039020 1 0.011 -0.069 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.082 0.220 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.052 0.130 MEDIAN 1 0.069 0.215 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.081 0.176 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.011 -0.069 LOWER HINGE 1 0.041 0.147 UPPER HINGE 1 0.121 0.323 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.196 0.432 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.076 0.472 4.950 0.074 0.003 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.067 0.620 4.321 0.070 0.019 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.075 0.506 3.952 0.079 0.019 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.067 0.412 3.847 0.074 -0.015 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.089 0.875 4.789 0.088 -0.032 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.116 2.420 10.476 0.104 -0.029 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.157 2.151 11.823 0.127 0.047 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.121 3.587 20.319 0.089 -0.058 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.100 0.873 5.590 0.106 -0.046 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.094 1.128 5.212 0.097 -0.008 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.117 1.416 8.148 0.113 -0.043 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.099 1.049 4.611 0.105 -0.042 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.105 0.741 4.671 0.113 -0.025 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.102 1.449 7.137 0.095 -0.017 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.093 1.109 5.533 0.096 -0.053 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.097 0.954 5.352 0.102 -0.024 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.098 0.123 2.915 0.113 -0.053 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.090 0.719 4.567 0.097 -0.014 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.087 0.880 4.066 0.097 -0.038 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.155 2.471 10.941 0.115 0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.100 1.198 6.661 0.098 -0.020 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.024 0.852 4.073 0.015 0.028 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.098 0.917 5.081 0.097 -0.024 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.023 0.763 3.198 0.021 0.040 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.067 0.123 2.915 0.070 -0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.088 0.669 4.444 0.088 -0.042 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.111 1.432 7.642 0.109 -0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.157 3.587 20.319 0.127 0.047 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.461 0.132 0.010 -0.099 2.767 0.157 0.780 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.157 SERIES 039002 AND 039008 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.780 SERIES 039013 AND 039016 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.742 0.679 0.578 0.278 0.282 0.442 0.395 SDEV 0.086 0.128 0.148 0.264 0.219 0.176 0.207 SERR 0.035 0.009 0.011 0.019 0.016 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.981 0.977 0.965 0.885 0.887 0.941 0.929 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.999 0.070 1.272 6.357 0.066 0.091 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.385 0.104 -0.044 35 56 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.76 1.23 1.04 1.20 2.44 11.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.76 0.87 0.92 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.090 0.003 0.080 0.143 -0.176 -0.146 0.002 -0.149 -0.046 -0.198 PACF 0.090 -0.005 0.081 0.130 -0.205 -0.124 0.008 -0.151 0.058 -0.213 95% C.L. 0.210 0.211 0.211 0.213 0.217 0.223 0.227 0.227 0.231 0.232 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 -0.014 0.067 0.155 -0.179 -0.131 0.030 -0.147 -0.014 -0.194 PACF -0.005 -0.014 0.067 0.156 -0.180 -0.141 0.008 -0.156 0.063 -0.205 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.211 0.216 0.222 0.225 0.226 0.230 0.230 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 -0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.999 0.071 1.279 6.534 0.064 0.150 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.148 0.023 0.088 0.134 -0.173 -0.154 -0.017 -0.152 -0.065 -0.202 PACF 0.148 0.001 0.086 0.112 -0.218 -0.114 0.008 -0.149 0.054 -0.217 95% C.L. 0.210 0.214 0.214 0.216 0.220 0.225 0.230 0.230 0.235 0.235 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.025 0.156 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.19 MINUTES