RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 039 1 Aubure (F), EU-Pr. DENSITY_LATE PCAB - 039 2 France Norway spruce 1080 5334-800 1904 1994 - 039 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 15 039015 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1949 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 039020 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1972 1972 / 1974 1974 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 7.299 0.754 -0.222 2.481 0.091 0.316 2 039002 1908 1994 87 6.969 0.739 -0.168 3.303 0.110 0.200 3 039003 1908 1994 87 7.109 0.874 0.062 3.294 0.094 0.482 4 039004 1908 1994 87 7.430 0.794 -0.429 3.148 0.097 0.305 5 039005 1905 1994 90 6.364 0.827 -0.557 3.715 0.129 0.286 6 039006 1905 1994 90 6.230 0.878 0.079 3.431 0.138 0.308 7 039007 1905 1994 90 6.609 0.890 -0.648 3.869 0.130 0.290 8 039008 1905 1994 90 6.783 0.878 -0.465 4.084 0.128 0.268 9 039009 1907 1994 88 7.058 0.928 -0.260 2.774 0.122 0.349 10 039010 1907 1994 88 6.780 0.915 0.739 3.066 0.115 0.398 11 039011 1907 1994 88 7.263 0.900 -0.556 3.447 0.105 0.495 12 039012 1907 1994 88 7.503 0.886 -0.283 2.894 0.118 0.305 13 039013 1905 1994 90 7.633 1.147 -0.633 2.725 0.132 0.399 14 039014 1905 1994 90 7.383 0.956 -0.245 2.604 0.128 0.244 15 039015 1905 1994 90 7.957 1.089 -0.847 3.402 0.127 0.350 16 039016 1905 1994 90 7.593 1.003 -0.742 3.487 0.131 0.257 17 039017 1904 1994 91 6.796 1.008 -0.183 2.707 0.146 0.295 18 039018 1904 1994 91 6.387 0.740 -0.230 3.389 0.110 0.360 19 039019 1904 1994 91 6.987 1.180 -0.405 2.701 0.145 0.450 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 6.881 1.239 -0.430 2.781 0.161 0.464 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1904 TO 1994 91 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 7.051 0.931 -0.321 3.165 0.123 0.341 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.462 0.143 0.350 0.449 0.018 0.083 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 89 7.023 0.895 -0.344 3.221 0.127 0.312 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.626 0.155 0.354 0.690 0.022 0.111 MINIMUM VALUE 87 6.230 0.739 -0.847 2.481 0.091 0.200 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 6.781 0.851 -0.557 2.749 0.110 0.288 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 7.407 1.006 -0.202 3.439 0.132 0.398 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 7.957 1.239 0.739 4.084 0.161 0.495 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.756 0.085 0.006 -0.948 4.866 0.411 0.936 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.411 SERIES 039008 AND 039010 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.936 SERIES 039013 AND 039015 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.856 0.825 0.810 0.713 0.620 0.504 0.690 SDEV 0.041 0.101 0.112 0.130 0.167 0.165 0.109 SERR 0.017 0.007 0.008 0.009 0.012 0.012 0.008 EPS 0.991 0.990 0.988 0.980 0.970 0.953 0.978 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 7.044 0.821 -0.448 3.175 0.104 0.383 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.237 0.049 0.334 7 84 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.34 1.04 1.09 1.43 3.56 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.05 0.76 0.86 0.90 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 90. 2. 87. 88. 90. 91. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.379 0.412 0.424 0.282 0.310 0.260 0.250 0.148 0.233 0.166 PACF 0.379 0.314 0.256 0.009 0.066 0.022 0.053 -0.093 0.094 0.003 95% C.L. 0.210 0.238 0.267 0.296 0.307 0.321 0.330 0.338 0.341 0.348 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.303 0.162 0.256 0.286 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00930542 6.88987160 2 039002 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01303838 6.39573622 3 039003 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02242072 6.12199402 4 039004 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01548115 6.74917412 5 039005 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01364012 5.74370813 6 039006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01598486 5.50291157 7 039007 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01841051 5.77098894 8 039008 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00599555 6.50975800 9 039009 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01860044 6.23068953 10 039010 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01626132 6.05659866 11 039011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01998794 6.37360525 12 039012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01775149 6.71335411 13 039013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02507849 6.49226236 14 039014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01971692 6.48632431 15 039015 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02107286 7.01856661 16 039016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01799547 6.77431726 17 039017 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01707995 6.01047611 18 039018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01527871 5.68432236 19 039019 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02764373 5.71575069 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.02852329 5.56310177 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.099 -0.059 2.572 0.090 0.246 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.095 -0.324 3.109 0.109 -0.006 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.095 -0.425 3.176 0.093 0.095 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.094 -0.359 3.331 0.096 0.098 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.119 -0.529 3.481 0.127 0.112 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.125 0.145 3.292 0.136 0.112 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.116 -0.599 4.018 0.129 0.000 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.128 -0.319 3.875 0.126 0.240 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.115 -0.200 2.498 0.120 0.095 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.120 0.447 2.294 0.113 0.211 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.105 0.110 3.495 0.104 0.233 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.102 -0.278 2.597 0.116 0.053 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.127 -0.232 2.849 0.130 0.122 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.111 -0.105 3.156 0.127 -0.055 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.124 -0.255 3.415 0.125 0.181 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.119 -0.441 3.555 0.130 0.052 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.135 0.171 2.620 0.144 0.115 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.099 -0.062 2.637 0.108 0.105 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.137 -0.071 2.949 0.143 0.103 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.146 -0.144 3.101 0.157 0.092 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.116 -0.176 3.101 0.121 0.110 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.015 0.258 0.471 0.018 0.082 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.118 -0.216 3.132 0.126 0.104 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.026 0.280 0.819 0.021 0.079 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.094 -0.599 2.294 0.090 -0.055 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.101 -0.341 2.628 0.109 0.073 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.126 -0.061 3.448 0.130 0.151 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.146 0.447 4.018 0.157 0.246 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 039002 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 039003 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 039004 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 039005 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 039006 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 039007 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 039008 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 039009 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 039010 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 039011 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 039012 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 039013 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 039014 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 039015 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 039016 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 039017 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 039018 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 039019 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 0.999 0.087 -0.417 2.969 0.090 0.030 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.094 -0.318 3.124 0.109 -0.029 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.087 -0.629 4.239 0.093 -0.062 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.086 -0.670 3.569 0.096 -0.076 5 039005 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.112 -0.614 3.601 0.127 -0.007 6 039006 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.115 -0.077 3.045 0.136 -0.051 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.111 -0.707 4.245 0.129 -0.090 8 039008 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.114 -0.764 4.139 0.126 0.020 9 039009 1907 1994 88 0.999 0.106 -0.273 2.847 0.120 -0.061 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.106 0.285 2.799 0.113 0.007 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.093 -0.153 3.199 0.104 -0.021 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.096 -0.491 2.988 0.116 -0.089 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.122 -0.423 3.017 0.130 0.051 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.110 -0.087 3.169 0.127 -0.071 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.114 -0.591 3.687 0.125 0.051 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.116 -0.550 3.666 0.130 0.002 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.126 0.007 2.502 0.144 -0.024 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.095 0.059 2.768 0.108 0.033 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.131 -0.222 2.871 0.143 0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 0.999 0.135 -0.287 3.198 0.157 -0.076 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.108 -0.346 3.282 0.121 -0.023 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.015 0.289 0.508 0.018 0.047 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.111 -0.367 3.147 0.125 -0.023 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.021 0.482 0.714 0.021 0.080 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.999 0.086 -0.764 2.502 0.090 -0.090 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 0.999 0.095 -0.602 2.920 0.109 -0.067 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.116 -0.120 3.634 0.130 0.013 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.135 0.285 4.245 0.157 0.051 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.717 0.078 0.006 0.213 2.800 0.552 0.918 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.552 SERIES 039010 AND 039019 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.918 SERIES 039013 AND 039015 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.860 0.837 0.801 0.715 0.637 0.527 0.664 SDEV 0.039 0.085 0.102 0.129 0.145 0.150 0.116 SERR 0.016 0.006 0.007 0.009 0.011 0.011 0.008 EPS 0.991 0.990 0.988 0.980 0.972 0.957 0.975 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 1.002 0.094 -0.524 3.485 0.106 -0.035 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.031 -0.006 0.064 19 72 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.36 1.01 1.04 1.40 3.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.72 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.035 0.083 0.119 -0.110 -0.047 -0.100 -0.082 -0.230 -0.005 -0.055 PACF -0.035 0.082 0.126 -0.110 -0.078 -0.103 -0.054 -0.225 -0.005 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.211 0.214 0.217 0.217 0.219 0.221 0.231 0.231 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.050 0.075 0.099 -0.133 -0.028 -0.074 -0.083 -0.183 0.007 -0.045 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.050 2 -0.047 0.073 3 -0.055 0.078 0.107 4 -0.041 0.088 0.100 -0.130 5 -0.048 0.094 0.105 -0.133 -0.059 6 -0.052 0.085 0.112 -0.126 -0.062 -0.069 7 -0.056 0.081 0.105 -0.120 -0.057 -0.072 -0.058 8 -0.068 0.067 0.094 -0.143 -0.036 -0.056 -0.069 -0.196 9 -0.068 0.067 0.094 -0.143 -0.037 -0.056 -0.069 -0.196 -0.001 10 -0.068 0.062 0.092 -0.144 -0.037 -0.059 -0.067 -0.195 -0.003 -0.023 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 520.54 522.31 523.83 524.78 525.22 526.91 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 528.48 530.17 528.61 530.61 532.56 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 039001 0 0.001 2 039002 0 0.001 3 039003 0 0.004 4 039004 0 0.006 5 039005 0 0.000 6 039006 0 0.003 7 039007 0 0.008 8 039008 0 0.000 9 039009 0 0.004 10 039010 0 0.000 11 039011 0 0.000 12 039012 0 0.008 13 039013 0 0.003 14 039014 0 0.005 15 039015 0 0.003 16 039016 0 0.000 17 039017 0 0.001 18 039018 0 0.001 19 039019 0 0.000 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 039020 0 0.006 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.003 MEDIAN 0 0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.004 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.000 UPPER HINGE 0 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.008 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.087 -0.417 2.969 0.090 0.030 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.094 -0.318 3.124 0.109 -0.029 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.087 -0.629 4.239 0.093 -0.062 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.086 -0.670 3.569 0.096 -0.076 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.112 -0.614 3.601 0.127 -0.007 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.115 -0.077 3.045 0.136 -0.051 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.111 -0.707 4.245 0.129 -0.090 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.114 -0.764 4.139 0.126 0.020 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.106 -0.273 2.847 0.120 -0.061 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.106 0.285 2.799 0.113 0.007 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.093 -0.153 3.199 0.104 -0.021 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.096 -0.491 2.988 0.116 -0.089 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.122 -0.423 3.017 0.130 0.051 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.110 -0.087 3.169 0.127 -0.071 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.114 -0.591 3.687 0.125 0.051 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.116 -0.550 3.666 0.130 0.002 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.126 0.007 2.502 0.144 -0.024 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.095 0.059 2.768 0.108 0.033 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.131 -0.222 2.871 0.143 0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.135 -0.287 3.198 0.157 -0.076 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.108 -0.346 3.282 0.121 -0.023 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.015 0.289 0.508 0.018 0.047 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.111 -0.367 3.147 0.125 -0.023 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.021 0.482 0.714 0.021 0.080 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.086 -0.764 2.502 0.090 -0.090 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.095 -0.602 2.920 0.109 -0.067 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.116 -0.120 3.634 0.130 0.013 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.135 0.285 4.245 0.157 0.051 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.717 0.078 0.006 0.213 2.800 0.552 0.918 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.552 SERIES 039010 AND 039019 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.918 SERIES 039013 AND 039015 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.860 0.837 0.801 0.715 0.637 0.527 0.664 SDEV 0.039 0.085 0.102 0.129 0.145 0.150 0.116 SERR 0.016 0.006 0.007 0.009 0.011 0.011 0.008 EPS 0.991 0.990 0.988 0.980 0.972 0.957 0.975 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 1.003 0.094 -0.524 3.485 0.106 -0.035 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.030 -0.006 0.063 19 72 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.38 1.01 1.04 1.42 3.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.72 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.035 0.083 0.120 -0.110 -0.047 -0.099 -0.082 -0.230 -0.005 -0.055 PACF -0.035 0.082 0.126 -0.110 -0.078 -0.103 -0.054 -0.225 -0.005 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.211 0.214 0.217 0.217 0.219 0.221 0.231 0.231 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 1.003 0.094 -0.524 3.485 0.106 -0.035 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.035 0.083 0.120 -0.110 -0.047 -0.099 -0.082 -0.230 -0.005 -0.055 PACF -0.035 0.082 0.126 -0.110 -0.078 -0.103 -0.054 -0.225 -0.005 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.211 0.214 0.217 0.217 0.219 0.221 0.231 0.231 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.18 MINUTES