RUN: FRAN001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: FRAN032W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 20 10 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 039 1 Aubure (F), EU-Pr. WIDTH_RING PCAB - 039 2 France Norway spruce 1080 5334-800 1904 1994 - 039 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 20 039020 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1972 1972 / 1974 1974 / 1982 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 2.449 0.667 1.220 4.797 0.159 0.667 2 039002 1908 1994 87 2.677 0.480 0.511 3.412 0.146 0.479 3 039003 1908 1994 87 2.191 0.619 1.071 4.112 0.175 0.662 4 039004 1908 1994 87 2.270 0.645 0.580 2.872 0.164 0.735 5 039005 1905 1994 90 2.512 1.135 0.711 2.942 0.179 0.879 6 039006 1905 1994 90 2.197 1.184 0.534 2.454 0.213 0.916 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.732 1.149 0.722 2.670 0.286 0.897 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.832 1.246 0.828 2.556 0.249 0.927 9 039009 1907 1994 88 2.229 1.330 1.445 4.246 0.194 0.924 10 039010 1907 1994 88 2.744 1.492 1.168 3.691 0.218 0.891 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.874 1.377 1.550 4.185 0.197 0.960 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.779 1.170 1.382 3.850 0.213 0.925 13 039013 1905 1994 90 2.206 1.094 0.820 3.228 0.178 0.896 14 039014 1905 1994 90 3.033 1.014 0.302 3.522 0.182 0.820 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.731 0.947 1.724 6.144 0.182 0.916 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.766 1.021 1.292 5.007 0.200 0.892 17 039017 1904 1994 91 2.089 1.336 1.342 3.754 0.233 0.898 18 039018 1904 1994 91 2.863 1.222 0.569 2.381 0.185 0.865 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.568 1.077 1.346 3.921 0.201 0.907 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.438 1.282 1.456 4.008 0.291 0.962 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1904 TO 1994 91 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 2.159 1.074 1.029 3.688 0.202 0.851 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.449 0.277 0.416 0.946 0.038 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 2.194 1.142 1.120 3.723 0.196 0.897 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.708 0.283 0.718 1.241 0.037 0.078 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.438 0.480 0.302 2.381 0.146 0.479 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.772 0.980 0.646 2.907 0.179 0.842 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 2.480 1.264 1.364 4.148 0.216 0.920 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 3.033 1.492 1.724 6.144 0.291 0.962 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.676 0.259 0.019 -1.052 2.996 -0.090 0.972 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.090 SERIES 039001 AND 039018 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.972 SERIES 039007 AND 039008 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.756 0.598 0.540 0.318 0.258 0.366 0.385 SDEV 0.089 0.256 0.275 0.304 0.321 0.334 0.339 SERR 0.036 0.019 0.020 0.022 0.023 0.024 0.025 EPS 0.983 0.967 0.959 0.903 0.874 0.920 0.926 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 2.134 0.958 1.128 3.509 0.132 0.932 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.372 0.073 0.595 22 69 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.29 1.00 1.04 1.33 3.64 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.71 0.87 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 90. 2. 87. 88. 90. 91. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.921 0.868 0.815 0.780 0.730 0.679 0.628 0.587 0.527 0.491 PACF 0.921 0.125 -0.002 0.100 -0.088 -0.048 -0.033 0.023 -0.134 0.097 95% C.L. 0.210 0.344 0.430 0.493 0.545 0.586 0.620 0.647 0.670 0.688 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.869 0.745 0.198 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00182474 2.52890944 2 039002 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00439181 2.86979151 3 039003 1 1.44902432 0.02753249 0.00000000 1.64912593 4 039004 1 1.31641877 0.12145861 0.00000000 2.15306592 5 039005 1 4.06339312 0.01905731 0.00000000 0.58747280 6 039006 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.04017294 4.02509117 7 039007 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 039008 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 039009 1 4.63440418 0.04602261 0.00000000 1.12999165 10 039010 1 5.06609774 0.02924132 0.00000000 0.95173365 11 039011 1 5.11049795 0.04953194 0.00000000 0.74511045 12 039012 1 4.22716904 0.04188123 0.00000000 0.68429184 13 039013 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03708038 3.89326835 14 039014 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02884043 4.34557295 15 039015 1 3.13868499 0.03595059 0.00000000 0.81588346 16 039016 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03366819 3.29745817 17 039017 1 4.35460377 0.05729935 0.00000000 1.28188908 18 039018 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03960487 4.68512106 19 039019 1 3.89920855 0.03886915 0.00000000 0.51810658 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 1 4.67909002 0.03789845 0.00000000 0.11413270 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.273 1.311 5.032 0.157 0.665 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.174 0.496 3.232 0.144 0.458 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.224 0.672 3.225 0.172 0.519 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.265 0.472 2.662 0.163 0.702 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.271 0.363 3.517 0.179 0.633 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.061 0.483 2.545 11.189 0.211 0.768 7 039007 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.346 0.309 4.887 0.284 0.533 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.281 -0.496 3.491 0.245 0.525 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.002 0.289 0.460 3.068 0.192 0.683 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.002 0.261 -0.065 2.703 0.216 0.453 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.010 0.313 1.080 5.853 0.194 0.574 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.005 0.268 0.298 2.871 0.211 0.553 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.029 0.283 1.144 4.564 0.179 0.643 14 039014 1905 1994 90 0.997 0.225 0.135 3.138 0.180 0.524 15 039015 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.254 0.029 3.051 0.180 0.621 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.052 0.354 1.665 5.843 0.196 0.686 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.002 0.462 1.997 7.739 0.231 0.706 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.013 0.258 1.020 4.512 0.183 0.487 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.006 0.326 1.708 7.107 0.199 0.640 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.028 0.381 0.853 4.952 0.292 0.528 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.010 0.300 0.800 4.632 0.200 0.595 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.018 0.076 0.762 2.133 0.039 0.091 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.002 0.277 0.584 4.014 0.193 0.598 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.012 0.077 0.924 2.334 0.035 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.997 0.174 -0.496 2.662 0.144 0.453 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.259 0.303 3.103 0.179 0.525 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.012 0.336 1.228 5.438 0.214 0.674 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.061 0.483 2.545 11.189 0.292 0.768 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 039001 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 039002 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 039003 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 039004 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 039005 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 039006 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 039007 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 039008 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 039009 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 039010 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 039011 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 039012 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 039013 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 039014 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 039015 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 039016 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 039017 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 039018 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 039019 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 039020 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 0.995 0.206 0.977 4.220 0.158 0.483 2 039002 1908 1994 87 0.999 0.163 0.488 3.018 0.144 0.371 3 039003 1908 1994 87 0.998 0.199 0.374 2.917 0.172 0.423 4 039004 1908 1994 87 0.996 0.226 0.225 2.519 0.162 0.608 5 039005 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.263 0.378 3.587 0.178 0.611 6 039006 1905 1994 90 0.996 0.295 0.278 4.777 0.209 0.648 7 039007 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.342 0.376 5.269 0.284 0.521 8 039008 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.271 -0.594 3.731 0.245 0.499 9 039009 1907 1994 88 0.995 0.259 0.350 3.113 0.191 0.614 10 039010 1907 1994 88 0.999 0.257 0.012 2.732 0.216 0.444 11 039011 1907 1994 88 0.998 0.252 -0.068 2.807 0.194 0.516 12 039012 1907 1994 88 0.998 0.248 0.301 3.125 0.210 0.497 13 039013 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.210 0.024 2.631 0.178 0.473 14 039014 1905 1994 90 0.999 0.215 0.368 3.533 0.180 0.448 15 039015 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.237 0.002 3.036 0.180 0.567 16 039016 1905 1994 90 0.998 0.242 0.490 3.326 0.195 0.488 17 039017 1904 1994 91 0.996 0.313 0.257 2.942 0.230 0.535 18 039018 1904 1994 91 0.997 0.206 0.554 3.018 0.183 0.305 19 039019 1904 1994 91 0.997 0.257 0.532 3.967 0.198 0.528 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 0.997 0.314 -0.051 3.385 0.291 0.406 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 0.997 0.249 0.264 3.383 0.200 0.499 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.001 0.044 0.321 0.716 0.038 0.087 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 0.998 0.250 0.326 3.119 0.193 0.498 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.002 0.055 0.415 0.729 0.035 0.105 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.995 0.163 -0.594 2.519 0.144 0.305 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 0.997 0.212 0.018 2.930 0.178 0.446 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 0.998 0.267 0.433 3.659 0.213 0.551 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 0.999 0.342 0.977 5.269 0.291 0.648 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.387 0.191 0.014 -0.233 2.950 -0.176 0.830 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.176 SERIES 039001 AND 039018 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.830 SERIES 039015 AND 039016 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.738 0.549 0.470 0.388 0.199 0.316 0.398 SDEV 0.066 0.305 0.270 0.291 0.315 0.317 0.304 SERR 0.027 0.022 0.020 0.021 0.023 0.023 0.022 EPS 0.981 0.961 0.947 0.927 0.833 0.902 0.930 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.984 0.167 -0.042 2.807 0.137 0.526 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.067 0.024 0.157 36 55 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.78 1.01 1.08 1.86 4.03 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.05 0.74 0.88 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.521 0.220 -0.038 -0.121 -0.223 -0.206 -0.192 -0.177 -0.225 -0.136 PACF 0.521 -0.071 -0.171 -0.024 -0.155 -0.035 -0.073 -0.108 -0.171 0.010 95% C.L. 0.210 0.260 0.268 0.269 0.271 0.279 0.286 0.291 0.296 0.303 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.292 0.537 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.477 0.182 -0.085 -0.127 -0.206 -0.120 -0.169 -0.120 -0.202 -0.115 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.477 2 0.505 -0.059 3 0.494 0.039 -0.194 4 0.494 0.039 -0.194 0.000 5 0.494 0.012 -0.189 0.069 -0.140 6 0.498 0.010 -0.183 0.069 -0.155 0.029 7 0.502 -0.013 -0.173 0.041 -0.153 0.105 -0.152 8 0.497 -0.009 -0.178 0.043 -0.160 0.104 -0.133 -0.038 9 0.490 -0.033 -0.160 0.015 -0.152 0.073 -0.135 0.050 -0.177 10 0.489 -0.033 -0.161 0.015 -0.153 0.073 -0.136 0.050 -0.174 -0.006 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 622.22 600.70 602.38 600.89 602.89 603.08 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 605.00 604.88 606.75 605.85 607.85 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.477 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 22.78 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 129.50 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.477 0.228 0.109 0.052 0.025 0.012 0.006 0.003 0.001 0.0006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 039001 1 0.238 0.485 2 039002 1 0.145 0.377 3 039003 1 0.183 0.427 4 039004 1 0.384 0.618 5 039005 1 0.394 0.614 6 039006 1 0.437 0.650 7 039007 1 0.319 0.537 8 039008 1 0.262 0.505 9 039009 1 0.400 0.627 10 039010 1 0.237 0.452 11 039011 1 0.294 0.539 12 039012 1 0.257 0.504 13 039013 1 0.253 0.485 14 039014 1 0.273 0.474 15 039015 1 0.345 0.576 16 039016 1 0.258 0.496 17 039017 1 0.299 0.545 18 039018 1 0.104 0.310 19 039019 1 0.285 0.533 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 039020 1 0.173 0.413 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.277 0.508 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.087 0.087 MEDIAN 1 0.267 0.505 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.095 0.098 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.104 0.310 LOWER HINGE 1 0.237 0.463 UPPER HINGE 1 0.332 0.561 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.437 0.650 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 039001 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.180 1.166 5.226 0.186 -0.033 2 039002 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.151 0.799 3.780 0.159 0.019 3 039003 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.180 0.498 2.929 0.199 -0.017 4 039004 1908 1994 87 1.000 0.177 0.524 2.654 0.198 0.030 5 039005 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.208 0.187 3.775 0.220 0.100 6 039006 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.224 0.448 5.703 0.247 0.102 7 039007 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.289 0.073 4.743 0.336 0.122 8 039008 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.234 -0.841 4.283 0.284 -0.042 9 039009 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.200 0.210 3.077 0.241 -0.082 10 039010 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.229 0.112 2.779 0.261 0.083 11 039011 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.212 0.124 2.818 0.232 0.043 12 039012 1907 1994 88 1.000 0.214 0.125 2.661 0.253 -0.037 13 039013 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.183 0.041 2.660 0.212 0.067 14 039014 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.188 0.457 3.425 0.200 0.117 15 039015 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.193 -0.071 2.954 0.206 0.070 16 039016 1905 1994 90 1.000 0.210 0.547 2.974 0.231 0.057 17 039017 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.261 0.409 3.357 0.280 0.021 18 039018 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.196 0.602 3.585 0.205 0.024 19 039019 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.217 0.561 3.090 0.236 0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 039020 1904 1994 91 1.000 0.286 -0.133 3.446 0.322 0.018 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 89 1.000 0.211 0.292 3.496 0.235 0.034 STANDARD DEVIATION 1 0.000 0.035 0.412 0.875 0.045 0.057 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.209 0.309 3.224 0.232 0.027 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 2 0.000 0.041 0.443 0.904 0.054 0.077 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.151 -0.841 2.654 0.159 -0.082 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 88 1.000 0.185 0.092 2.873 0.202 -0.001 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 90 1.000 0.227 0.536 3.778 0.257 0.077 MAXIMUM VALUE 91 1.000 0.289 1.166 5.703 0.336 0.122 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.410 0.163 0.012 0.042 2.989 -0.094 0.794 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.094 SERIES 039001 AND 039018 87 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.794 SERIES 039015 AND 039016 90 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 97.10 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1914. 1930. 1940. 1950. 1960. 1970. 1980. CORR 6. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. 190. RBAR 0.725 0.542 0.458 0.427 0.310 0.313 0.410 SDEV 0.055 0.276 0.231 0.206 0.238 0.252 0.244 SERR 0.022 0.020 0.017 0.015 0.017 0.018 0.018 EPS 0.980 0.959 0.944 0.937 0.900 0.901 0.933 NSS 18.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.992 0.142 -0.075 2.836 0.162 0.055 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.163 0.062 0.090 30 61 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.73 1.02 1.09 1.82 5.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.76 0.89 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.054 0.049 -0.165 -0.052 -0.172 -0.013 -0.078 0.017 -0.194 -0.069 PACF 0.054 0.046 -0.171 -0.036 -0.155 -0.021 -0.081 -0.032 -0.223 -0.121 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.211 0.216 0.217 0.223 0.223 0.224 0.224 0.231 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 0.055 -0.167 -0.034 -0.168 0.001 -0.078 0.033 -0.193 -0.057 PACF -0.004 0.055 -0.167 -0.037 -0.155 -0.025 -0.081 -0.023 -0.218 -0.130 95% C.L. 0.210 0.210 0.210 0.216 0.216 0.222 0.222 0.223 0.223 0.231 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1904 1994 91 0.989 0.161 -0.085 2.964 0.140 0.461 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.456 0.179 -0.086 -0.143 -0.229 -0.162 -0.163 -0.135 -0.219 -0.120 PACF 0.456 -0.037 -0.194 -0.032 -0.147 -0.010 -0.100 -0.091 -0.203 -0.003 95% C.L. 0.210 0.249 0.255 0.256 0.260 0.268 0.273 0.277 0.280 0.287 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.221 0.469 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.98 MINUTES